Thursday, November 20, 2008

Listen up, folks...

This market is on life support. The lies being thrown at the American public are unfolding and the more they are, the lower this market has to go. Today after the close Citi (C) said that they are looking to sell themselves, or break themselves up and sell pieces. Do you know the last few companies that said the same thing before they went to ZERO (or close to it)? WB, WM, BSC, LEH, AIG. C sees under $1, I've said it for a very long time. Unfortunately I'm right. Right before C are, I believe, BAC, MER, MS, and my favorite GS, which is still absurdly overvalued. When GS is under $10, which I believe it will be, you can thank me. Those are a few, there are a TON more. Pundits continue to send their clients to market HELL with reckless abandon. The denial is thick, and it's only unfortunately going to get worse. Nothing goes in a straight line, but I am now officially moving my DOW target to a MINIMUM of 2500. I am quite sure we see my initial 4500 target, but I think we see a lot lower. We are in very serious trouble, folks and the more denial that runs rampant, the worse it'll be in the end. We will bounce shortly, but its unlikely to last very long. This market is in a hospice, it'll pop up and look like its doing better once in a while, only to then fall even lower. I'm sorry, I really am, but anyone who owns a SINGLE SHARE of stock is a SUCKER in my opinion. I think there's a good chance that we start to see some states go bankrupt, and for the US to be downgraded ratings wise. If China decides they need to stop buying our paper it's going to get a lot uglier. If they decide to call the debt, forget it, its over, the fat lady has sung and stick a fork in the US stock market for good. People ask, "but aren't the companies worth something?" The simple answer is - YES, and many are worth a LOT, there may even start to be some "values" simply because they are trading below their cash levels and making money (at least for now). BUT, there are so many companies that are debt laden and that is the biggest issue. For example, many of the energy names have huge debt obligations. When they can't meet them they have to try to borrow more money at a higher rate. If no one will lend them at a higher rate even they have to go bankrupt. Look at stocks like CHK, they carry huge debt loads in a declining market, the stock will probably go under or sink below $10 more than likely. Just because its "cheap" doesn't mean it's buyable. Today was a tough trading day only because the GM news threw everything off. I got stopped out of a bunch of my shorts only to have us close at HOD. I still made very nice money, but have to admit I had one of those "I shoulda made more" days! It happens to even me, trust me! I don't know about anyone else, but I just don't get why Hank Paulson has a job at this point. Seriously, why is this guy the one running the show? He's clearly clueless, he's lied about many things and gone back on other promises. He keeps saying we're going to make money on these "loans" yet we just gave C $25 BIL of OUR money and C market cap is now $25 BIL and when its under $1 where did our money go? Seriously, where did the money WE just gave C - GO! Damn it! It's infuriating. We're handing out free money to these companies that are on the verge of bankruptcy and no one says a damn word! It's very sick. This GM thing is sick as well, and gets sicker by the minute. Why don't these "leaders" see the folly of bailing out companies that will cost us $100 to $500 BIL by the time its done? How is that representation? Who's interests besides the lobbyists are they serving? If the Unions think GM is a viable going concern, why don't they take their pension money and THEY fund the $25 BIL themselves? Since GM is such a great company and will be fine a few years from now, then the Unions shouldn't have any problem funding the bailout. Right? Total nonsense and totally lying. I'm sick of being lied to, sick of it. Tell the freakin' truth! Tell us reality and not some pipe BS dream! Best is that GM stock rallied on the news, as though the stock will have any value more than likely once they get a bailout. I doubt it, GM has to go to zero as far as I can see. There has to be some type of oversight and yet there isn''t. No one truly steps up and says this is how its going to be. Tell the unions they have to compromise and give back some things they got agreements for many years ago. If GM goes under they get nothing, so make a deal that benefits everyone. But, no, all we get are LIES. I gave you guys some stocks to short today, how'd FSLR and VNO and others do? I'll give you another one that I LOVE short longer term - AMED. I think this thing is trading like it wants SINGLE DIGITS. We'll see, and it could squeeze when we bounce, but the way its trading and traded today, I think it sees $8 or less now. I called it short initially from $54ish and said it would see $25, I am moving the downside target to $8 now. We'll see soon enough! TOmorrow is options expiration, make sure you manage your trades and don't get stuck with something you don't want to own. We are ROCKING and people are making BOATLOADS, I am getting a TON of testimonials, keep them coming! Right now I am concerned that the US is headed toward bankruptcy and politicians have their heads in the sand, at best. RULE! Waxie

1 comment:

greggo said...

Pretty darn GOOD observations.
I tracked your model day for 11/21/08
and it was picture perfect.
I keep wondering what time frame you use for your options.
Myself, I prefer 90 days out but then
that could just be preference.

My compliments to your efforts to express your opinion. Right or wrong I suspect that you are honest.