Monday, November 10, 2008

Well, that was easy...

Today had to be like the easiest GAP short of all-time! Seriously, how we were going to go up more than the 200ish points they gapped us? Did anyone think we were going to go up 500 pts today? This market is INSANELY easy. INSANELY. I hate saying that because I'm supersticious, but my Gawd, this is NUTS! S & P gapped up over 27 pts from Fridays 4 pm close! On what? China stimulus package? ROFLMAO! Our own hasn't worked to get the market to go up, but China's will? If you think logically in this market, its RAINING MONEY. I haven't done this well this easily for a long long time! Life is very very good and I am living LARGE, baby! And, todays calls - AGAIN - were insane. We NAILED IT! yes, I am bragging, because I think we are just completely devouring this market. And, did ya notice GS? My #1 short since it was about $150? Hmm, amazing, the stock should be $15 and they keep asking "why is GS going down? They are so smart!" Yeah, they are so smart that they blew their company up, just like all the other brokerage houses did. Yeah, they are brilliant. Please, give me a break with this nonsense. GS is going down because they have NO WORTH! That's reality. You want to keep telling me that Warren Buffet bought warrants at $115? First off, its NOT TRUE! Secondly, there is no secondly! The media keep portraying that deal is a way that is completely misleading. Buffet didn't "purchase" anything, he gave GS a loan, a lifeline at 10% interest that gives him preferred shares, plus the interest. That's what he did. He HAS warrants which are exercisable at $115 if he wants, but I doubt Mr.Buffet really thinks GS is worth $115 a share, he just did that as a bump is my GUESS. I try not to make statements without facts, crazy as that might seem watching day in and day out the insanity of the market!
OK, so I need to comment on Booyahhead tonight. Let me tell you something, his pitch tonight that the market needs the government to bail out all the automakers for us to get a "sustainable rally" is LUDICOUS, and once again will lead investors to their financial deaths. This market is GOING DOWN NO MATTER WHAT! Of course the government will bail out GM, and the others! DUH! They bail EVERYONE out! FNM lost $29 BIL this last quarter! $29 BIL! AIG has "only" destroyed what, like $130 BIL of taxpayer money? Oh, yeah, I forgot, we'll all make it back because AIG is a good investment! Sorry, I forgot, please forgive me! If and when the market rallies on a bailout of the automakers, it will be once again a total lamb to slaughter situation. ANY rally here is. People are nuts for thinking that you can buy this market and hold for 10 years and you'll make money. NUTS. INSANE. I spoke to an old friend today and she told me that she was buying Berkshire at $3000 if it gets there. I asked her why and she said that she was holding for 10 years and that thats a "good deal". OK, she knows my opinion, and I could be wrong, but I don't see ANY reason to try to bottom pick here. Look at how much money is being just thrown away by the government on our behalf, and its not doing a thing. This is a QUADTRILLION $ problem! The government doesn't have enough money to do what needs to be done. That's why, in my opinion, something needs to be done OUTSIDE THE BOX! Throwing money at GM? I mean, what will that do? Keep a dead company in business? How does that help? It just means that government gets to tax us more and more and destroy the financial fiber of the country for years to come. GM is DEAD. It's lost money for a very long time, it can't possibly make money the way it's structured. So, a bailout does what? How does that help? It is INSANITY, pure and unadultered. Fold the freakin' company. Set the workers up with other work that is needed. Offer them a buyout, or a job doing improvements in other areas. I'm sorry, I know it sounds heartless, but there are millions of other people and hard workers who are suffering as well, why does anyone think that its appropriate to bail out one industry and not others? It's INSANE. And, ultimately it will lead to them folding it anyway. If I'm right, which I hope I'm NOT, then GM can't possibly be profitable EVER. That's right - EVER. So, when the Fed tells us that GM is going to make taxpayers money, same as AIG, and same as the Tarp program and the 700 BIL bailout, its total BS and an out and out LIE. And, I for one am sick. And, its not because they are bailing things out. I don't want anyone to suffer, but its because there is NO PLAN, its like water to them, and they keep rallying the market so stupid funds keep killing investors. It's a vicious cycle and the cycle will continue until there is finally capitulation all around. Until the taxpayers tell their representatives that ENOUGH IS ENOUGH, stop the insanity, stop throwing our money into the toilet bowl, stop bowing to pressure from lobbyists, stop trying to stop the bleeding from an amputated arm with a bandaid! Only when there is a real plan that doesn't react everytime someone says "help me, we need TAXPAYER money!" only then will things start to turn. Until then, EVERY SINGLE RALLY IS SHORTABLE! Sustainable rally? Booyahhead, you are a knucklehead and should know better. GM isn't the issue, the issue is that the stock market is VASTLY OVERVALUED. That means it goes DOWN, whether its today, or 3 months from now, its FINISHED, the party is OVER. Sub-5000 on the DOW, see ya there!
Watch Tuesday for some more down movement with turnaround Tuesday potential and a rally probably on some news. 900 on the S & P would be a nice turnaround potential point. Make sure you have stops set on your shorts, best thing that can happen is we get a rally and then we get to reshort higher, which has worked for us for a while now. Financials are in very bad shape and look a LOT lower near and far term. I would be very careful to try to catch that falling knife for more than an intraday trade. AXP was approved by the Fed to get loans as a bank holding company. Stock was up after hours. Just remember, every company that has done that is down DRAMATICALLY a few weeks later. See GS, MS for two very good examples. I expect AXP is in trouble and thus a great swing short if it gaps up. It may rally when we bounce Tuesday or short term, and thus I would just add to the short more than likely. These moves mean that these companies are DESPERATE. It should be a reason to sell the stock, not buy it, but that's why I say that this market, knock on wood, is the easiest freakin' market next to 1999 I have ever seen. Turnaround Tuesday? We shall see, but decent shot I think. Remember, TRADE 'EM, don't marry 'em! Next to go down? Sign up for Option Trader or the chat room and you'll find out, I have some, what I feel, are VERY strong plays coming up! RULE! Waxie

4 comments:

mliu_01 said...

How do I join your chat room?

beach2788 said...

Tiny is great with those entry and exit points.
Saul "Tiny" riding the big waves !!!, with his Elliot Wave Theory.

Tiny has a book out Technical Analysis. He can rip though stocks charts in seconds.

Waxie said...

Chat room is easy, go to; www.trendfund.com and sign up for the chat room/Ninja membership. You should enjoy it and you should RULE the freakin' markets with us!

Waxie

Waxie said...

Beach, tiny is da TA maven, for sure! We are ROCKING all around! RULE,

Waxie