Wednesday, November 26, 2008

HAPPY THANKSGIVING, boy do we have a LOT to be thankful for!

Wishing you all a Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours! Please be safe and enjoy the holiday!

We picked a pretty dang good time to cover our shorts and go long some stuff! That's what I call TIMING!

Very thankful that you guys are here to listen to my rants, or at least put up with them, and to give the (mostly) positive feedback! I look forward to continuing our path to riches next week! The market is now overbought, but I'm thinking 9000 may be a straight shot. We'll get a blow off top next week and then some backing and filling until we head to the January Effects list that is coming soon! Hopefully we get the pullback to make that play even better than I think it'll be. We'll see soon enough. I got a couple emails today asking if I was going to short some stuff here. NO, not ready to do that just yet. Like I said the other day, what I want to do is put together a list of stocks you want to short when the time comes. I would LOVE us to hit the top end of my Waxie range of 10,300 on the DOW, which I think is probably about as high as we could possibly go without some huge news. Even then I doubt we go higher than that, but in this market who knows, I mean we go up 250 today and its nothing. As far as today goes, I have to say, I made nice money, BUT I messed up. That terrorist news out of India threw me off. Normally I wouldn't trade off it because unfortunately they seem so used to it there that the market usually shrugs it off, but since this am there was a rumor of bombs in NYC over the holidays, plus that, I over thought the situation and took off all my longs, of which I had a lot, took the profits and compounded the damage by going short. I stopped out but not before giving back a lot of my earlier gains, and probably worst of all, I was SO sure we would do this today, I told you guys yesterday that is the big time trend for today. What can ya do? You see, I am certainly not perfect, I make mistakes and outthink myself sometimes as well. Is it that important? Nope, I pray for the people who were affected by the tragedy, and their families. We are celebrating Thanksgiving tomorrow, they will be attending funerals for no good reason. We all have a lot to be thankful for, we live in a beautiful country and we have a chance to make a very good living doing something as inucuous as trading! I'm very grateful for my life, my kids, my family and you guys and gals! I hope that the tragedy in India is contained, one of the reasons I traded off it was that this attack seems to be particularly vicious and deeper than others. Hopefully I just made a very bad decision trading wise and it's nothing more. My prayers regardless. It's very sad that humans have such a propensity to destroy each other. Thing is, not sure how I can complain, I made a mistake and still made over $50,000 on the day. That's not too shabby. Best wishes to you all! Make sure you sign up for the WORLD SERIES OF TRADING (! Enjoy! RULE! Michael "Waxie" Parness


Robert said...

A few posts ago you had mentioned that you thought the DOW would be around the 5000 level by year end, do you still think thats the case or has something changed?

thomas said...

Wouldn't you NEED the market to fall in December to get a decent January effects pop? If we were to continue onto 10,300 by the end of December there's no upside left for January. Conversely, we'd need to drop by 1,000 points a week to get to 5000 by the end of the year, hardly a safe bet. Are you thinking we back and fill from 9,000 until the end of the year then have a good January effects from there?

TheBigBadBeerGuy! said...

Waxman...sounds to me you're getting more and more bullish everyday. (Be Careful) I think a TON of the rally was Obama induced and started with the Treasury Secretary announcement at a pivotal time. If they didn't release the Geithner that precise moment....we were going down another 300+ into the close on the 21st.

Anyhow...trend is STILL down although continuation to the top of the channel, 9500 is quite possible following some selling from a short-term overbought condition.

I think a load of the upward bias has been short covering...let's now see if organic buyers emerge.

Waxie said...

Thomas, no not necessarily, lets see what shakes out.

Beer guy, I'm NOT bullish, not at all, in fact my 4500 target on the Dow is a foregone conclusion in my opinion and 2500 is entirely possible. The government is making every single wrong move and they are pushing the country into a potentially catastrophic situation. One where we could see riots in the street, civil unrest like we've never seen before. What happens when people realize that their money is really being used to bail out selected banks and companies that will merely piss it away? What happens when the dollar is worth 50% or more less than what it is, but they are taxed more? They are making decisions that they have no authority to make, and that are dooming us to the worst depression in the history of our country. One that might last for 10+ years, and lead to horrible ends.

Does that send bullish? :)