Tuesday, November 04, 2008

S & P 1000...

As called here...have to say we are SMOKIN'! Have I told you guys that I LOVE LOVE LOVE this market? I mean, my gawd, this is sooooooo suweeettttt! This is the perfect storm of RAINING MONEY! I feel as though I am in stock market heaven! This is soooo sweet! Now we have a real shot to catch the next leg down, and it should be a real doozey. You know whats insane? Well, actually, a lot in the world is insane, but at the end of the day today they kept trekking out Bull after Bull after Bull saying that the market is oversold and that things are really cheap here and when stocks rebound, yadda yadda. I don't know, maybe its me, and maybe I'm just "Mr.Bear" (I've been called worse, fyi) but we've now had over a 20% move higher in two weeks across the board. We're oversold? WHEN the markets recover? Huh, I don't know, I thought a 20% move was pretty big, guess I was wrong! I wasn't wrong about my S & P 1000 call, though, so at least I'm right sometimes! Now we have the election results and assuming O'Bama wins, which most assume, I stick to my call to short the solars tomorrow at the open. We shorted FSLR for roughly $7 intraday before it bounced into the close. We were long STP and JASO early on for AWESOME profits as well. Hence the beauty of being a trader! And, this is why I say that you really need to NOT listen to the pundits. Think about this, GOOG announced, or at least CNBC announced that they have basically a hiring freeze. For a young company like GOOG to make that play is a HUGE thing, and this market is ignoring reality. Now, what you'll hear from pundits is that that means that we have bottomed (there's that idiotic word again). I'm here to tell you that's NONSENSE. This 20% move has been on VERY VERY light volume, and declining as we go higher. This is a Bear market rally and I believe we are 85 to 90% or more to break to new lows before year end. NOw, it's always possible I'll be wrong, but if I am it won't be because the market has priced in a recession, or the market is cheap, etc. It'll be because the market often runs against reality, there is often a disconnect. It always catches up, and that's why we have such a huge edge, because while I feel strongly that I am right, I made money today on the long and short side, same as yesterday, and same as last week. And, in my opinion that's the only real way to make money in this market. Yeah, if you get lucky and catch a bottom as an investor you are fine, but in the meantime tons of them got margined out before least week and sold the lows, or close to it. And, now they are putting their money back in here when I don't think we can possibly get higher than 10,300. That's a big move, but that is the top end of this move and if we get there I will be shorting with both fists more than likely. For us this is a gift, rallies like this, because now we get to reshort stuff at much higher prices. And, if I'm wrong, then we stop out and go the other way. This is what I call Trend bias trading (I actually just made that up, but it's catchy, huh?!). You have a bias, which can be long, short or neutral (yes, you can have a neutral bias!), and you act accordingly leaning that way and trading around that bias. RIGHT NOW my bias is moderately to the short side. Before today, leading up to S & P 1000 it was moderately to the long side. If you are going to swing here I think you have to swing short. Even if we hit the top end of the 10,300 peak I'm calling, then we should roll back over from there. And, as I said, I'm looking at the solars as a short here tomorrow off an O'Bama win. 1/2 share lot and then add another 1/2 using 10 am rule if they go our way, or waiting for a bigger pop toward 10,000 on the DOW to add the other 1/2. Still need to use 2% rule and use stops no matter what! In the meantime, I will see you all manana! RULE! Waxie

1 comment:

roadrash said...

Waxie, don't know if you read these or not, but that was tear jerking stuff man (Nov. 5 blog)! You should have been a speach writer or a columnist - lol

I am a little older than you mamybe, but I also agree that it's been a long, long time since I've seen the people in this country show so much enthusiasm towards any politican (McCain included) - not since the Days of the Kennedy's!!

I was only 10 when they killed John and it broke my heart towards Gov., at only 10 years of age I used to love to watch and listen to the man on TV - imagine that a ten year old wanting (sitting and waiting) to see the president on TV - those to me were the grand old days - when this country was so inspired and united behind a president! The people had such hope in the man towards a great future for all of us in this country!

One hundred years after the fact the Kennedy's broke the final bonds of slavery (in my opinion) in the south and perhaps were possibly one huge primary reason that on this day a black man was elected president of this great nation and as you said let's hope he realizes this and makes a grand stand for good and not evil, along with that will follow greatness! I only hope that he realizes that's what it's all about!

This could be in a sense History repeating itself - the Kennedy's had their plate full also with Vietnam, the Cold War,the cuban missile crisis, civil rights, organized crime, etc, all in three years - Obama has the economy in shambles (after the greatest treasury hiest in history) and the terrorists - lets see what he does with it - like you I certainly hope he wants to be known for more than just being the first black president of the USA!