Thursday, April 30, 2009


News flash, evil hedge funds wouldn't play ball with government! Wowsa, we are heading down a very dangerous path (yeah,I know, we already have). Is there such a thing as Liberal Conservatism? It's quite amazing, it reminds me of that Star Trek episode where the Star Fleet guy is sent down to observe and he gets involved and they end up moving toward an ultra conservative nation. (I won't mention the name because I can't compare most anything to that period of time). I understand the move toward socialism. I mean, whether you agree or not, that's what we voted for as a country. Obama didn't hide his leanings. However, this constant ripping of anything capitalistic is absurd, and will backfire. Hedge Funds aren't evil (well, most of them aren't). Most hedge funds are just trying to find good deals just like everyone else who invests. Just because the government wants to put Chrysler into bankruptcy (it's ironic because Chrysler should have been buried 30 years ago but the govt intervened to save them, bad history does indeed repeat itself) doesn't mean that INVESTORS should buckle and lose money. If that's the case then why does the government keep manipulating the market to drive it higher artificially? Is there justice in GS being $130 a share but no one says a word about them stealing $18 BILLION from taxpayers? Or JPM being $33 a share despite abusing their powers and taking advantage of the government knuckleheads who spearheaded these forced deals?

How come Jamie Diamond is allowed to make millions and millions or Lyold Blankstein, or a dozen other HEDGE FUNDS masquarading as public companies? Please, give me a break with the hypocresy already. What a joke this whole thing is. A total total joke. They play high and mighty and just use black mail tactics to force their will on whatever and whomever they want. I'm very disturbed about the policy shifts we have in this country, and I don't mean from a party standpoint. As far as I'm concerned they are both knuckleheads. They all are. They have no clue about what they are doing and every two seconds they say the whole system is on the verge of crumbling and yet the market powers higher and higher, its pretty funny when you think about it. I stated yesterday that the GAPS were rocking and today while we held up well initially we eventually went nicely red, a 150+ point reversal off the open. WE had a VERY nice day, caught PCLN and FAZ (sweet) and we sold our calls - DIS, PRU, ATVI, etc. for huge gains, so I'm very happy. I had a very nice day as well.

Friday if we gap UP its a total gimme as far as I am concerned, just fade it and collect at the window, its a done deal. I suspect we'll get more of a flat open which is much tougher to play. A gap down should be fadeable, though I'd be less confident for anything more than a gap fill or so. Market is vastly overbought, that doesn't mean we can't go up a lot more, we may, but we are anemic volume wise to the buy side and that indicates that momentum may be switching sides. May 4th is a big day and I think we'll get a very nice trade early next week into the stress tests. So, BE PATIENT here, no need to rush a thing. Just pick your spots and you can ROCK!

I'll talk about next week over the weekend. Oh, for those of you Beta Testing the TREND CRUSHER software, please respond to Michael HOnig, we need some feedback on the product that we are rolling out VERY soon! its -, Michael HOnig.

BTW, I don't have Swine Flu, just run down a bit apparently, so that's good. In the meantime, Friday we may chop around a lot, remember - DO NOT OVERTRADE!


Michael "Waxie" Parness

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Yo Yo Yo Yo...

Have you seen the move this market has made since March? WOWSA! Very impressive indeed!

We continue to power higher and higher through this earnings period. I pointed out the insurance companies the other day and last week, they should continue to move higher here into earnings.

GAPS have been GOLDEN here, folks, and they are the easiest trade there is. You should all be playing them. We also had the famous FOMC trade whereby we always run into the FOMC meeting. We powered higher into it, faded, then repowered and then rolled over a bit into the close. It's interesting that we've had that happen a few times lately where very late day they roll us over as though people are still scared to hold longs overnight.

It'll be an easy fade if we gap down tomorrow. A gap up is tougher and could lead to some profit taking early on. We look destined for 900s on the S & P now for sure and my 8500 target lives on. You just can't fight this tape, there are buyers all around and stubborn shorts are getting CRUSHED beyond belief.

I'm feeling a tad better, but will be VERY happy when I am fully recovered. I feel like someone is using me as an experiment, hehe. It's all good, or so they say. Whatever don't kill ya makes you stronger. Same holds true for trading, whatever losses make you stronger as long as you LEARN From your mistakes and don't make them fatal and wipe yourself out!

Futures are up here, but its early. Remember that FOMC usually produces some trend days and weeks post it. So, tomorrow's action should give us some insight into near term trading. Watch individual names and check your earnings calendar. Again, its been golden. No one wants to be short stuff into earnings, everything right now is going up no matter what. Next week's earnings plays are this weeks pickups. It's kinda like Fantasy Baseball when you pick up the two-start pitchers, you want to be in them here now, before everyone else piles in. We are in PRU, which reports May 6th and already up decently. I think $35 to $40 is doable if the market holds up on PRU. Stops under $25 as thats strong support now.

May 4th stress test. I think we should run the banks into that, but honestly it's a 50/50 crap shoot here, with a lean toward up only because you have to lean that way in this tape.

I got my car back from the accident and had to give it back to the shop 4 timse now for different things. I tell ya, what a racket, they charged the insurance company $42,000 on a $60,000s car! I mean, I wanted them to total it, you just know there's no way this thing is going to be ok. It could be worse, if I wasn't in an SUV I probably would be a vegetable now, or 6 feet under. Who says SUV's are so bad? Not I, babies, not I. At least not any more.

Keep the faith, it's all good.

We are setting a date for a HUGE - OPTIONS MASTER seminar shortly. It'll be me, Tiny and Scott and a full day of classes with 1 or 2 live options trading days and a list of some TOP options plays. Price has not been completely set, but figure $1495 with a discount to high plan members to $995. If you're interested shoot me an email -, I'll post final details here shortly, stay tuned!

Here it is, in summary;

Saturday - (May 23rd is tentative date) Full day options, soup to nuts
- 11 am to noon - Intro to Options
- Noon to 1:00 - Intermediate Options
-1:00 to 2:30 - Using Technical Analysis to Swing Options
-2:30 to 4:00 - Using Trends to play Options
-4:00 to 5:30 - Advanced Options Strategies and analysis
-5:30 to 7:00 - Credit and Debit Spreads

Monday, May 25th is tentative date
ALL DAY Trading solely options (there are no guarantees on how many setups there will be obviously)

Monday evening - Wrapup for 1 1/2 hours 4 to 5:30

FYI - we will be teaching CREDIT and DEBIT Spreads for the 1st time. In fact, there are a couple of places that charge $30 to $50,000 *yes, $50,000* for this type of class. It'll be limited, so if you are interested get with me ASAP.

As I finish this up futures are taking off, we're over strong resistence at 875.00 on the S & P futures. If we hold that over next few days we'll see 900 in a jiff. Next after that would be maybe 925 to 940. We are skyrockets in flight, afternoon delight at this point, so enjoy it while it lasts!

These are strange times, indeed. From 6600 to 8500 in a few weeks, I bet there are a lot of investors kicking themselves. More than a few!

See ya on the other side,



Monday, April 27, 2009

Of Swines and such...

OK, so another MOnday and another down day. It's getting TRENDY, hehe.

Unfortunately much of the downdraft had to do with Swine Flu scare. And, more unfortunately I have what seems like the flu and I was out with someone last week that just got back from Mexico, so tomorrow I'll be getting tested. I'm sure some will be happy, I've been called worse then a swine in my life, hehe. Oy vey, guess I'm paying back some Karmic debt these days. It's all good.

In the meantime, the futures are crapping out as I write this, so what's the other trend lately? TURNAROUND TUESDAY! A gap down has to be buyable at some point Tuesday. I do not like the financials here, Sheila Baer said some pretty apropo BEARISH things. A lot of banks are going to need a lot more funding. Shocking, I know, but meanwhile investors and traders are using any excuse here to take some profits.

99 out of 100 times these types of events turn out to be buying opportunities. I would watch the airlines, the cruise companies and the hotels for entries on a nice fat gap down. Take RCL for example, stock was down huge Monday on the Swiney news. Get it down another 10% near the open Tuesday and I think its worth a poke for a trade, with stops. It's possible that this flu is different then SARS or Bird Flu, and in which case the selling is going to be justified, but I've just seem this far too many times over the years to know that you're better off finding fades then you are pressing a short on this type of news. Hopefully that turns out to be the case. Honestly, I would be remiss if I shorted stuff and hoped that a pandemic really occurred killing 10,000s of people. Sorry, but as much as I want to make money for you guys, I prefer to have some dignity and compassion for my fellows. There are plenty of opps to make money, 1000s dying isn't a good way thing to be rooting for, for me. I remember 9/11 and we were way short and I donated every blood dollar I made being short from that. Hey, hopefully I don't have the freakin' thing! That would suck bad. You can all short me then I guess! :)

Sectors to watch on a gap down for a trade;

Stuff listed above already

Again, I would avoid financials here. They should bounce as well if we do get a bounce, but I think they will underperform. Also watch some technology stocks like AAPL. Remember that most techs aren't affected by flus! Capesh?

We live in scary times, it's good to keep your cool and keep rocking. Sorry I wasn't around much today, I was at more doctors. The good thing is, I am doing my part to stimulate the medical economy! Hehe.!

Tuesday it'll be more of the same but you have some ideas here. Remember also that FOMC runs Tuesday and Wednesday and we USUALLY run into that, so again, good shot we at least get a nice longside trade. I'm pretty neutral here, we just look tired to the upside, but even Monday its not like we got smoked, so investors are reluctant to sell still. So, its a draw with leaning having to be to buying the dips until it doesn't work anymore.

Hope you are all safe and sound and staying away from Swines! Lord knows there are a lot of them these days!

Oh, fyi for those that participated in the new infomercial taping, we should be airing end of May or latest early June. It's looking great and we thank you again for participating! Ka-chingo!



Thursday, April 23, 2009

I'm gonna kick your arse...part 1

OK, so today we finally got what everyone knew, that the government forced the buyout of Merrill Lynch by Bank of America, or at least that's what Ken Lewis is now saying about Hank Paulson. Hank Paulson? Oh, he says that Ben Bernanke coerced him to do it. Ben Bernanke? He basically says it never happened.

Hmm, what's an American to do? Hehe, it's pretty hilarious if you let it be. These are the people who are trying to solve the crisis! It's not really funny, its actually tragi-comedy at it's finest. Shakespeare couldn't possibly come up with better material!

Oy veys meir mein gofen. (means oy vey my head hurts, fyi). Oy vey = oh, boy basically.

OK, now that I've given you your daily Yiddish lesson, let's get back to the comedy!

OK, so all this on the eve of the stress tests, which obviously are a total joke at this point, does anyone think they have ANY meaning? Please, they don't, so get with it if you have any notion they might.

Then the shareholders are pissed cause they are like "Ken Lewis has a feduciary duty to shareholders. Hello!!!! Hello!!!! You dummy shareholders! Your company is worthless, the ONLY reason BAC stock is worth .01 cent, let alone nearly $9 is that the government has gamed the system! It's a bit disingenuous for you to complain. And, if you then tell me "yeah, but if they didn't take on Merrill they'd be fine. Yeah, sure they would have, even if they didn't take on COuntrywide, which I'm fairly sure the government had a hand in that as well, BAC is and was INSOLVENT!

It's amazing, all these dummies want the stock to go up. At $9 this stock is trading at $9 too much.

These are the people running things now. Now you know why I go nutso here, my friends. And that's why ultimately, while I'm happy the market is red hot and I'm happy to go long at any moment, we are going to be much much lower years from now. Not higher. The government will have to let the patient die at some point, in fact they should have from the beginning and we'd be in much much better shape. I was discussing some of this with a friend in the business the other night and they were talking about Lehman and how it was a mistake for LEH to fail. I started to laugh, and he said "you don't think so?" NO, that's one of the biggest made up lies ever. I hear Booyah talk about it 100 times. It's the markets mantra - "look what happened when we let Lehman fail! We can't do that ever again!"

Hence, "too big to fail" was born! It's also Psych 101 in mass hysteria propaganda. Lehman failing didn't do anything more or less then anything else big has. Please, what a joke. What is scary to me is that so far I've heard at least a dozen times how the entire system has teetered on the verge of collapse because of all these things. What does it say about a system that can fail so easily? I mean, so one firm out of MILLIONS breaks down and it can bring the entire system down? That is so beyond nutso it's unreal.

Reason #2 why anyone investing for more than a trade is insane.

OK, now as far as the market, wow, I mean I have to say I lost Thursday. I was up in the am and we called SKF and SRS and IBM short and did very well, but I didn't think we would pop into the close and got caught off guard. It happens. Friday should be very good trading if you are patient, stress test info will be released and the market will respond accordingly. We are so far overbought its insane, but we can certainly get more overbought so we're in no man's land here. There are buyers on any dip, but buyer beware because any moves here for now are merely people who have missed the whole run and are going to be the one's who jump in the pool last when everyone else has jumped out because the 8 year old kid made a turd in the pool. The guy jumps in and thinks he is lucky because he has the pool to himself, until he realizes the absolute horror that he's not alone, he has a turd sharing the pool with him! Well, if that analogy doesn't freak you out, you get my drift. If you are jumping in AMEX at $23 tomorrow I'm not sure what you think your upside is longer term. Thing is, many of these stocks are trading at 50+ percent of their peaks when things were GOOD. Also keep in mind that they are making money because the money doesn't cost them anything, and mark to market was revised. AND, analyst #s came way down and overshot to the downside to boot. Bottom line is, while some of them could go higher, I don't see the move playing out that much longer - FOR NOW! We shall see, we shall see....

In the meantime, futures indicate a down start to tomorrow. I think the model would then be that we fade the gap (which has been ROCKING!) and that's that unless there is a really good setup in our opinion.

What usually happens here is that the laggards catch up and the overbought stuff starts to pull in. We still could get a bigger upside move, but I think you have to wait for a clean breakout above 8000 before swinging stuff. More likely is a pull in, so we'll see here soon enough!
Its as tough to pick a top as it is to pick a bottom. But, I would not want to be swinging much long here, unless its a small cap that has some catching up to do and I feel strongly it has tremendous upside and isn't going under.

I lean short Friday, but not stubbornly, and not anything that is going to kill me. Rather wait for clearly sailing.

We shall see, we shall see, it's bed time is all I know!



Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Another Tuesday, another TURNAROUND TUESDAY!


Nice day fading the GAPS. Very nice, textbook day off yesterday. I thought we would gap up but even better we gapped down. Very sweet day all around.

Tomorrow should be very interesting. A nice gap down should again be buyable. WFC reports premarket and should dicate some of the action, but we look like we MIGHT want to go a bit higher here and retest Friday's highs around 870s on the S & P, which is 20 or so points higher, or about 200 points on the DOW. I had said a while ago that on this move 8500 was a good marker to see if we can get there. We haven't quite got there, but I suspect we will sooner rather then later.

The trick here is going to continue to be what happens with the banks, and obviously some key earnings. We have a couple of them this week. AAPL and AMZN are keys. YHOO of course blew out and the stock was trading $15s after hours. If it can hold $15 its a good bet to see $17 area, I'd watch 10 am for an entry if you want to trade it.

I'd watch the insurers here. I pointed out AAPL and MS yesterday here on gap downs, and both were STELLAR. With the AFL news today the other insurers should catch up. A nice gap down and they are a sure play for me for a quick trade to green, or more, with a stop at 10 am rule.

This market continues to be a pretty easy trading market (knock on wood). It's funny, I got an email today from someone telling me that I keep getting GS wrong.

I chuckle cause that's completely ridiculous. I don't EVER get GS wrong unless I trade it and lose money on it for myself or clients. That's it. I'm long some MS and sold some today on the move up, I'm not short GS and in fact I made a boatload of money today, so how am I wrong about GS?

Do I think GS is disgusting? Yeah, I do. Do I think the stock should eventually trade under $10. Yup, I still do. Does it matter, any of that? Nope, it don't. There's a reason I haven't done a SHORTS list this year, its cause I am not yet ready to make that call on the market. Trust me, I will, but right now I don't see the rush, so I'll just wait the market out.

Remember the old adage, the market can be wrong longer then you can wait for it to be right. Or something like that, hehe. Basically, I'm saying that you can't be so stubborn that you keep shorting or buying a stock that keeps saying it wants to go one way or the other. I said it here the other night, when the market is telling you to be bullish you have to be an ass to look for short entries. We played FAZ and it did very well up til the gap down today. In fact, it rocked. But, that was it, you can't then fight the market all day and expect to make money. The market was telling you it wanted to go higher today, so why would you try to fade that trying to pick a top?

It's very important to remember these things, folks. I'm not a perfect trader, I made a couple stupid mistakes today time frame wise. I was long and should have sold at 1 pm and then rebought post 2:30, and I "knew it" but got greedy a bit and while still rocking, I cost myself some good hard traded money. These things happen, have to let it go and move on. It's like anything else in life, you can't get stuck on the negative or you ARE The negative and the negative rarely makes money, or wins. So, you make a mistake, try to learn from it and then move on from it. I also didn't trust my gut on a couple trades and calls. I "knew" IBM was a screaming buy on the gap down but just didn't play it. It happens.

Again, I'd watch the insurers unless we just roll over, which seems unlikely without bad news. PRU and HIG are my two faves here if they move, and particularly on a gap down. Risky trades, and I wouldn't want to swing them heavily, but they could catch up to AFL.

Today the funds were lined up to buy the gap down. The bullish thing about todays move was it came on much heavier volume then yesterday's sell off. That's very bullish and if we gap down I think its an auto buy. If you were in the class the other day you know this all,though.

there are a few nice setups here that I'll detail to paying clients. In the meantime, I would stay day to day here, leaning long until proven otherwise. While there is risk holding certain things here, I'm much more comfortable trading both sides here.

I continue to read a lot of negative stuff on GS and the banks. Rightfully so. And, I continue to believe that Nationalizing was the best thing by far to do. No one is listening, but I'll stick to my idea being best until they really prove that there is actually something good happening in the economy instead of pating themselves on the back that the "credit markets" are freeing up. Ah huh, and if my aunt had balls she'd be my Uncle. Sure thing, toots.

One last thought for the night, its truly astounding to me the same analysts who have been wrong the whole way down continue to act as though they know something. Amazing, simply amazing. Guys like Dick Bove, who has worked seemingly for every firm in existence, which I assume has something to do with the fact that the only calls I've seen the guy make have been dead wrong. He's the guy who said that LEH wasn't going to go under and kept saying it. Now he's saying that about BAC, so buyer beware!

In the meantime, now I have a freakin' flu or something. Hehe. I'm definately the walking wounded, but as long as there is breath in this body, as long as I can speak to thou, I whilst pledge to give it to you straight, babies, cause that's all I know how to do.

RIght now futures are down about 6 S & P points, but yesterday we were up same and gapped down, so we'll see. We shall see! RULE!


*In case you think I am on my own planet with the GS stuff, read today's Huffington Post, they say the same things I've been saying for months, if not a year. It's just a shame no one calls them on it. Lord knows I would.

Monday, April 20, 2009

The Mysterious Case of Benjamin Bottoms...and Bank of America...

OK, so Bank of America reported seemingly kick ass earnings and went up right? I mean, they beat by a MASSIVE .48 cents, turned a supposed HUGE profit of BILLIONS, and blew out on every metric!

I mean, we are off to the races, right? WRONG!

This is why ultimately anyone investing here is a sucker. Obviously I think anyone investing at all is a sucker, but now in particular. This bank rally has been nothing but smoke and mirrors. I've argued this with a whole slew of people and investors and there are some that are convinced that because the govt has put a "floor" under the banks, that they are buys here. This is the same arguement that they've made since the first govt intervention last year. We all know how that turned out.

Ultimately this is going to end badly,and unfortunately very badly. You know a market is full of it when things like this happen. Part of why we sold off, besides the fact that BAC seemingly has LIED time and time again, and again today Ken Lewis said on the conference call that both Merrill and Country Wide were accretive to earnings! I mean, that is the funniest thing I've heard in a long time. That definately does not pass the laugh meter test! It's almost as funny as what we're going to hear about the nonsense stress bank tests. Please, don't insult people's intelligence, please.

The market also sold off due to a blogger claiming that results from the stress test were leaked and that 15 out of 19 of the largest banks are technically insolvent. Duh! But, its a rumor and it may or may not be true. However, regardless, if just a rumor can sell us, what does that say about the markets ability to sustain a real long lasting rally? Perhaps, but I don't buy it at all.

Tuesday we'll see if we get another turnaround Tuesday. This has happened a lot lately, when we selloff on MOnday we turn it around Tuesday.

Two stocks to keep a very keen eye on are; MS and AMZN, both have earnings this week and should get a push higher. I would love to get MS down to $22.50 area and then buy some calls for earnings (not holding over, just a very short trade). AMZN is a very hot stock and it was up nicely all day until end of day when the markets tumble took it with it. It still didn't go down much, so it showed good relative strength.

I'm just going to briefly mention my nemesis GS. There is more and more "stuff" coming out about GS, sooner or later it'll really crack the stock. It's not something to short this second, but I do think it'll set up as a nice short soon.

In my class last week I discussed MS and how its acting very poorly. It still is. This stock should be $35 or $40 based on the way GS traded. The fact that it can't hold $25 seems disturbing to me. While I think it gets one last ditch push into earnings, I think post earnings and any pop over time this thing is dead. We'll see, but it's important to note these kinds of things.

We should gap up decently Tuesday. That's been pretty strong trend, and its Tuesday to boot. Trin was over 2 at the close and that trend is awesome, we usually get bought early the next day. I think it should be a fade for at least a trade if no news is out. From that fade, assuming it happens, we may rebounce. I think we get a pretty choppy day, so please be careful and don't overtrade! Choppy days are not good days to step out and trade heavy. You are better off just waiting for another opportunity which should happen later this week if it doesn't happen Tuesday or Wednesday.

We'll see, if the banks gap up big on no news, I think you buy SKF or FAZ and should get a trade out of it, using the 10 am rule just in case it's wrong so you stop out and reverse if you like.

All in all, I'm not calling tops, nor bottoms, I'm just calling TRADES!



Thursday, April 16, 2009

Superdy Duperdy Day!

VERY nice day all around! See, we give a class and I learn from myself! Hehe!

Thanks to all who attended the class yesterday, we had over 1300 people who signed up. I'm pretty sure that's top 10 all-time for us in terms of signups for an online class. I always enjoy teaching, hopefully a lot of you got a lot out of it.

Today was a perfect example of some of the things I discussed yesterday. We had that typical choppy morning and then we zoomed near the close and then we pulled back a bit into end of day. I had a nice monster day, we played AAPL pretty heavy early and called the April $115 calls in the $4s, and we sold 1/2 at $8s for a SICK intraday gain! I'd say "I'm back!" but I am supersticious and don't want to piss off the trading gawds!

We also caught GE for a nice scalp. Pick your spots in this market and you will RULE!

Tomorrow should be interesting and very choppy. A gap UP should be an easy fade, we are definately getting very toppy here. I feel a down day, so that's the way I'll lean. Obviously news will rule this market as usual, and we have to watch the pin action.

You want to look at stuff that gaps over or under a key strike price. For example, if GS gaps up to $122 and the market gaps up, I would look to fade it short.

We will probably gap down unless GE and C say something that surprises people to the upside.

If I'm right and we chop around, I would be very careful, as I discussed last night in the free class, be careful not to overtrade. It's friday, its options expiration day, there's a lot of manipulation in the marketplace. Look for those strike price pins.

Next week is the true test of this rally. We're right smack dab in the middle of earnings, AAPL and others report (a lot of others), and we're nearing 900 on the S & P. The question is, do stocks like AAPL get bought when they are up 50+% in a short period of time? Do the banks keep going higher on expected earnings and into the phoney, and I do mean PHONEY "stress stupid" tests?

If they can, then we may have a move much higher as investors pile in. I think more likely we get a pause that is probably buyable. Remember, sentiment means everything in the market. Right now there is a buy the dip mentality. For a long long time it was sell the rally mentality. My trading theory is that you should not try to pick tops or bottoms, you only get one of them. By that I mean, when sentiment is positive you should buy the dips because you'll only be wrong one time buying the dips in a bullish market. Reverse holds for selling rallies in a bear mode. AND, more importantly, bear modes usually last for a while, as do bull modes so you can catch 20 or 30 or more potentially trending moves, but when sentiment changes you only get that one move so you are betty off going WITH the tape, and not against it, capesh?

Thanks again again for all the well wishes, I am starting to feel a little better and look forward to being 100% over the next few weeks. EVerything in life is a process.

ANd, its ALL good! Rock on, make sure to not overtrade, that's an order!

And, most of all - RULE!


P.S. FYI, I appreciate all the suggestions for women, hehe, but you should all know by now that I like to make fun of myself. I'm ok all around. :)

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

FREE CLASS TODAY starts at 4 pm EST

Tiny will be doing a 1/2 hour discussion from 4 to 4:30. I will then be doing a 1 hour and 15 minute discussion until 5:45. Scott will also be doing a discussion after me as well. It's all totally FREE, so no excuses for all not to attend!

I left the link here yesterday, same link, just 4 pm EST start time now.

As far as the market goes, if you read my thoughts from yesterday I pretty much nailed the model - gap down, fade to green, and then die again and trend down the rest of the day. Wha-la, thats what we did. Nice trading day. Indeed.

Today is iffy, we are nearing supports on a lot of stocks I follow and the govt is likely to do something to pop us again here without too much of a pullback. We should gap down, but from there we'll see. I expect us to have a pretty choppy day unless news comes. INTC earnings sucked, and frankly all these stocks have run to heights they have no business being at, despite what some pundits will have you believe.

GS oh GS, I simply think they are the most vile company on earth. They are so slimey as to make my skin get a rash, or worse. They reported early so they could sell stock premarket today at a higher price then they knew the stock was remotely worth.

So, they sold $5 BIL worth of stock for $123 a share. Hehe, good deal! ROFLMAO, how crazy is that? If you bought the $5 BIL deal at $123 you lost $8 a share already. Nice! Very smart these people are. They diluted their stock by roughly 8%, they have a book value of $88 a share but let's pay $123 a share for a stock that's run up 150% off its lows! Wow, what a bargain! Oy.

I've been reading on the bank stress tests. The more I read the more it gives me an even bigger bigger rash. They rigged these tests,its a total scam in my opinion. It's another smoke and mirror attempt to lie to the American people. Such insanity. The truth will set you free. I guess no one ever told government offials that, or they just missed that in the ethics class they taught at Harvard law. Hmm. It's ironic to me, there is no way they will say how bad things are, but they are doing these "tests" to regain confidence in the financial system. Does anyone believe they will tell the truth? ANyone? No, of course not, so then why not tell the truth? Oh, yeah, becuase of the sytematic risk of a run on banks. Please, haven't they figured out that no one is going to run to the bank and take their money out, no shot in hell. Indy Mac bank everyone knew they were going under, and yet 1000s of depositors were "shocked" when they actually went under. Hmmm.

Just come on TV and say it, say "OK, here is reality, we are in over our heads. We need a new system, there are 100s of TRILLIONS of dollars in toxic assets (or non assets) and derivatives that are worthless. These assets went to pay bank and broker bonuses for years, to the tune of trillions of dollars. The profits were basically all phoney. The banks are insolvent, they are crooks and thieves and liars, the banking system is a Ponzi scheme and we're screwed for about 10 years.

THere ya have it. NOw, I know what you are thinking, you're thinking "wow, this is horrible" but instead of looking at it as horrible, why not look at it as a positive. We've finally spilled the proverbial beans, the cats out of the bag, Dr.Suess is in da house! The fat lady has sung and eaten her donuts, too!

WOuldn't that be refreshing? I think it would be. Trust me, no one would run to the bank except me and you. People would just go about their business and pretend it wasn't so. If they were really serious about solving this problem they would nationalize the banks, period. I've stated that many many times. The lies always end badly. Thats reality. These banks can't pass a real stress test, hehe, give me a break.

I rebought FAZ today and we're up already on the call. We'll see, maybe its too soon and we pop again, its certainly possible. I just think that if they do it sets up another and even better short. People rushed into these things as though they were all fine. Banks tripled or quadrupled. Why? HOPE. ANd as you know, HOPE is a four letter word!

OK< I will try to find a different topic to discuss tomorrow, perhaps we'll go back to talking about my dating issues and love life. It's amazing, I've been turned down by like 27 women in a row. I just don't know why. I feel bad about myself for it, but at least I can trade!


See ya tomorrow at the class - 4 pm EST sharp!



Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Link to FREE class tomorrow...

Sign up ASAP, we have limited "seating".


See ya then!


Monday, April 13, 2009

Goldman rocks!

OK< so we all knew GS was gonna blow out the estimates, all the banks are, the rules are such that they don't have to write down anything, and if you read between the lines it's really horrible earnings.

Having said that, what's it matter? All that does matter is that what these insolvent companies trade at for us. I've always called myself a "tool" in terms of trading, I'll trade any stock any which way if it makes sense for us to play and make money. We had MS for a super duper Options Trader play into today's GS earnings. We sold it before the earnings, fyi.

We are close to a blowoff top. I'm hoping for one more push and then I think you can safely short the financials for a trade. Where they then go I won't even dare guess at the moment. I do think that the government is going to have to DEflate these stocks. The public is not going to be happy to see all these companies stocks soaring while the country and it's average citizen's suffer. They have created yet another bubble, congratulations! Awesome!

OK, you've all heard it before so I'll refrain, but I'm not the only one, there are a lot of others incensed by these shenanigens.

GS now says they want to pay the Tarp back the $10 BIL they were given to keep them solvent. Great! WOWSA! Awesome! Why? So they can pay themselves their sick disgusting fees! Why not give the taxpayer some fees? Freakin' insanity if ya ask me! Hehe. Well, I'm laughing on the inside cause it's NOT really funny, its pathetic. Borrow taxpayer money to save yourself and then have the government rig the game so you don't have to take any writedowns and see your stock go up to $132 today for no reason whatsoever, and then give the money back so you can go back to the same practices that got us into this heep of trouble to begin with! Nice, that makes a lot of sense, truly. When is someone in government going to call these guys what they are? $18 BIL taken from taxpayers that they won't give back, $10 BIL to save them from taxpayers, end mark to market to save them, and what do we the taxpayer get? Nada. Nice deal. It's great to reward the same companies, particularly GS, who helped create ALL these problems. Awesome, why don't we let Charles Manson do family therapy, it's on the same level. I wish I didn't have to watch this all day, but I do, so all I can do is try to make money and ignore it. You guys and gals see how well I'm doing ignoring it, hehe! ROFLMAO! Not very well, I know.

Hope all had a great Passover and Easter! I can not believe Mark "The Bird" Fidrych died. I don't have a ton of great childhood memories, but his antics were some of them. I hope he rests in peace, prayers out to his family and friends, it's a rare for people to touch people they don't know.

Today is an important day, believe it or not. Either we truly bust out, or the financials pull in heavily and we get a trend down day. That's the way I see it. My guess is that if we gap down, like we are now, we probably fade that, and then I would pick lower here by days end. How low is tough, but for those that keep asking me when they should buy FAZ, well, it could go to $5 or lower, but some out of the money May or June calls are looking mighty tempting here. It may be too early, but I'm finding it hard to believe that the government is going to sit there and let these banks keep going up. I think they know that there will be hell to pay at some point. I'm guessing that at some point they will reverse some of these STUPID IGNORANT MORONIC "rules" and the banks will crash again. Maybe, maybe not, I'm not betting heavy either way here, this is one of those times where I am just waiting patiently to pick a spot either long on a breakout, or short if we can't hold these levels. Right now futures are down pretty heavily, though nothing too dramatic. WHo didn't know that GS would "blow out" and I do use that wording loosely since its absurd. They made all their money on trading revenues. GS isn't a trading firm, so that can't last long. But, who cares, maybe it gets driven to $250 or $300! Wheee!

Let's see what shakes, remember that when in doubt - do nothing! It'll be interesting to see when we do pull back soon if it gets bought right away or we die a bit and then get bought. I doubt we just go right back to lows, I think we have some more upside before that happens. We'll see soon enough!



Friday, April 10, 2009



The class is FREE to all. If you have any questions you'd like me to answer during the class please email me at -

Members get first priority as far as questions go, so please indicate in your email what type of member you are. If you are not a member, thats totally fine, I will try to get to everyones questions, though please don't take it personally if I can't get to all questions.

As far as the market goes, what can I say? We are in serious bull mode. Can't buck the tape. There are several catalysts this upcoming week;

GS earnings. They should blow out huge. I am in MS calls here, thinking MS can go to $30 target. Keep in mind, though, that we are extremely overbought short term, EVERYONE is bullish and GS is up 150% into earnings. They MIGHT sell the blowout. I think, though, for now, we are certainly buying any dips, so I don't want you to chase stuff.

I'm laying low, I can't do much. It's amazing, I get emails from a couple people Taunting me that we're going up, hehe. Too funny, I'm laying here in a heap of pain and I have to get an email telling me "DOW 12,000!" Like I'm a Bear or something, hehe.

Thursday I traded and made 2 calls for the room, WFC LONG and MS calls. BOTH were very nice winners obviously. Let's remember, we're TRADERS, and thus I am a whore. I will go BOTH WAYS. I guess I"m a bisexual whore, hehe!

This week should be very whippy and volatile. DOn't get caught either way. There's still a lot of reasons we can get a further move up, BUT there are several why we may pause and go down here.

Part of the runup last week was due to Window dressing reversal. I've done several DVD's on Window dressing and detail this very strong trend. Funds were/are vastly underweight the financials and in a new quarter, particularly the 1st week, those stocks underweighted that sucked last quarter TREND to get bid up as the same fund managers who sold them last quarter not wanting them on the books, now buy them back, thus pushing them higher and higher.

So, now that the first week is over, it'll be curious to see if there is continued buying. I had said 8500 was a potential target on this move and we look like we may hit that sooner rather than later.

I lean long here, but only as a trader and I don't want to get caught swimming in the pool with the turd while everyone is exciting the pool screaming. You shouldn't either.

The class will focus on MONEY MANAGEMENT, current trading environment, and some potential plays.

Please email me; if you have any questions for the class. Again, the class is FREE to all, and if I see a couple of plays, we'll be calling them as well. No promises on the plays, but I'm happy to give a couple if something stands out and it usually does!

See ya soon!



*I'll post the link to the class before Tuesday here.


Monday, April 06, 2009


Wednesday the SEC is going to introduce some new legislature to curb short sales. Awesome!

I guess there's nothing wrong with one bubble popping and another one creating. I think there is a very old saying like that, right? When one bubble pops, another one is blown up! Hmmmmmm. In honor of Passover I give you - OY VEY!

Monday was a very choppy day, other than the late day bounce on no volume every up move was faded and every down move was faded, which makes it hard to catch any real moves. I would look for us to get a more pronounced move Tuesday. I honestly can't make a strong call here. I'd have to lean long, but into AA earnings we may get a selloff into the close, so I really am unsure. I do think we should get a pop on the short sale stuff if they start banning some stuff. Bubble trouble indeed!

Again, thanks for all the well wishes, sucks, I am really struggling, I still have this concussion I'm dealing with, and starting physical therapy. In the meantime, I would wait for better clearer direction before jumping in either way. I can see us getting a very nice move here before we get drawdowns of any significance, though.



Saturday, April 04, 2009

Some VERY valuable lessons indeed...

I've gotten a ton of emails lately, which is in part due to our increased popularity, and I think in part due to the "fear" factor. Forbes had an article last week about more and more people taking alternative routes to investing (hence many trading). I appreciate the comments and support all around, even if some of them are critical.

I think it's important to really look at the market here and just discuss what the difference is between reality, and the markets. I've gotten so many emails saying "things are so bad, how can the market go up, what am I missing?" Well, the perma bulls/pom pom wavers will tell you that its because the stock market is forward thinking, and therefore it leads 6 months to 9 months before we are actually out of the woods. And, yes, historically when we are truly going to see a bottom that comes into play. Far more often, though, these types of rallies die on a vine and turn just as fast as people realize that "whoops, our timing is a bit off!" and sell.

On Friday here I said I was wrong and my timing was off. The advantage to trading is that you can switch on a dime and Friday I made the adjustment and made a nice ka-chingo. Regardless, that's not really relevant. What's relevant is that we need to remember not to get too attached to REALITY. Look, whether you believe me, have a different take on things, or whatever, reality is that there aren't enough positives to justify a market rally much larger then what we've gotten. HOWEVER, that doesn't mean we won't go to 8500, or 9000 or even 10,000! Market reality is all based on psychology. Right now that psychology is that you don't want to miss the potentially bigger rally higher. I've said it before here many times, investors are much more worried about missing a rally then they are worried about losing money. It's clearly distorted, but that's human nature.

Many of the US banks are INSOLVENT, that's not me speculating, that's a fact. I've detailed that here many times. And, you simply can't have Timothy Guithner saying that $2 TRILLION probably isn't enough to solve the bank problems. Well, there ya go, proof positive, you can't have it both ways, if the banks aren't insolvent, then why would we need more than $2 TRILLION (hell, why would we need $2?) to bail them out?

The US Taxpayer is a CHUMP, we are all CHUMPS, total losers. We are being ripped off and no one says a word, its rather disgusting. I have two things for you to look at;

That's a short article I wrote.

BUT< even better, and a MUST watch (it's NOT me!);

The overall point of this post is to get anyone off the idea that reality has much, if at times - ANYTHING - to do with what the market gyrations are. I have no doubt that at some point the banks will be Nationalized. I think the problem is so much larger then they can possibly let on to then when it gets out all hell is gonna break loose. We are a very passive society, while in Europe they protest and get 10,000s of people participating, here we get less than 100 people going to Wall Street to protest. A lot of that has to do with the fact that even they are either misinformed or ill informed. It's too bad, I listened to what they all said on Friday and they are barking up the wrong tree. The issue has NOTHING to do with bank lending. ZERO. Bank lending doesn't create jobs, in fact bank lending when inappropriate will lead us right back in a loop to where we are trying to get out of. The same thing is being fraudulently perpetrated by the people in charge. We can't possibly get out of this doing what we are doing. I hope I'm wrong, that would be great, but it's not and that's reality. You can not inflate yourself out of an economic downturn of this magnitude, nor can you create another bubble and expect it to have better results then the last one! And, that's unfortunately what they are doing. It's a joke in my opinion, and the joke is on the US Taxpayer and the long term ramifications are so devastating that their worst nightmares are probably being set up by their actions now. Perhaps they figure that if it happens 10 years from now, at least they will be out of office so they won't have to deal with it.

The PBS interview I posted here is great, the guy talks about what I talk about, which is INTEGRITY, and the fact that this is a moral problem almost as much as anything else. And, in my opinion, the lies continue to be perpetrated. Until we hear the truth, we will get rallies, and crushings again and again and again. Because a market, and an economy, and perhaps a nation, based on lies can't help but eventually break down. It's a shame, I discussed the GS issues last week and it looked like they would do somehting about it, the fact that GS basically stole $18 BIL from the US Taxpayers, but lo and behold apparently GS is above the law, as usual. What a real shame that because they are well connected, and have their cronies everywhere, they continue to help keep the deceit, and get rewarded for it.

I am very disillusioned by our President at this point. Very. I had hoped for more integrity, and yet we have been force fed the same cast of characters and the same policies that have gotten us right smack dab into this. And, even worse, they all claim that what they are doing is "working". If I hear Ken Lewis spew his dang lies about how perfect BAC is, I will PUKE. Literally. Like projectile vomit puke, not just the chucky kind, ya know? Hehe.

OK, so as far as this coming week goes, I am unsure, other than to say I would look to the laggards. Typically in this kind of market the laggards play catch up. So, stocks like ACI, and our IGT we are already in tend to get nice moves even if the market pulls back a bit.

One more thing about the market that I've repeated again and again - the market creates the maximum loss, maximum pain to most investors. Remember, that while REALITY may not maen much day to day in terms of market movement, in the end it ALWAYS gets the nod. Water does indeed seek its proper levels. So, just as investors are jumping back in thinking that the water has no turds left now, they will be crushed when reality sets in. But, as always, I hope I'm wrong and I am NOT short the market here. Let's see what shakes out and go from there short term, we'll leave te long term/reality for investors to get suckered into playing.



Friday, April 03, 2009


Just so I don't get accused that I don't say when I'm wrong - I was DEAD wrong. I thought the banks would (I still think they will, but timing is everything and my timing was clearly wrong) would sell the news.

Frankly, they did yesterday. FAZ was up for us off the open as called. HOWEVER, the market is stronger, at least after two days.

I lost money yesterday fighting the tape, it does happen. We did sell as I thought we would, but the overall market was stronger then I thought it would be.

Having said that, right now today I made it back and we had a VERY nice day today.

OK, so there ya go. I certainly was wrong about GS, whilst I think its insane, clearly I'm in the minority. Of course, I haven't been short GS (I was long it for a trade recently) in a while (I had a few puts which I sold this am) so it hasn't hurt me, but I just wanted to mention it.

OK, there ya go, my "bad" for the week, it happens, I'm certainly not perfect and I do have losing days, even losing weeks. As a trader I try to control my losses so they are smaller then my gains, thats what good traders do. This year I am up a lot of money. Last year I made a helluva lot of money.

Today we caught IGT, very nice trade! That's what we do, we trade and most of the time we make money. Sometimes, I am wrong. Having said all this, FAZ is basically down about .20 cents from the entry yesterday, maybe .30 worst case.

Market is not up much from the open yesterday, for all the hoopla, we are not up big enough to make a real dent. Having said THAT, hehe, I would wait and see what shakes out next week before reentering. Psychology is a very important thing and right now buying the dips is working. Next week? Well, we shall see. REALITY and market reality are two very different things. Mark to market is HEALTHY for any market, getting rid of it does NOT help banks in the long term, it just scams investors into thinking things are better then they are.

Gee, hmm, not sure, but didn't we just go through that? Isn't that why we are in the shape we are in now? Yeah, I thought so. 'Nuff said!

Look for laggards, stocks that haven't participated as much, those are the ones that will get money next week if we keep going.

See, I am wrong sometimes! :)



Wednesday, April 01, 2009

The setup is here...

As planned, we are running into the Mark to Market news, which was clearly called here.

I think this is as close to a perfect sell the news situation as I can remember. Having said that, there are no sure things in life, or the markets and IF they come up with some crazy scheme then who knows, perhaps the market rallies harder. I just don't see it at the moment, but I certainly can be wrong, my friends!

I would look to unload your longs BEFORE the news. We may pop on it depending on what is said, and if so that is where I'd be looking to short. So, watch the news and see what shakes. Make sure you set stops if so.

A more detailed plan of action will be sent to paying clients!

In the meantime, Booyah says we go much higher, so that makes me all the more confident! Hehe.

Mark to market is necessary, this is another attempt by the government to try to control the markets, it is a DANGEROUS precedent to set and I am very concerned that we are just continuing on a path to destruction of the dollar, the economy and the stock market. It's funny, listen to Booyahhead and he will say that the government is the reason we are still in a Bear market. What a reject, jeez louise, if it wasn't for the HOPE the government shoves in everyone's face, the DOW would be under 5000 RIGHT NOW. I obviously can't prove that, but this market runs into every government control news and then sells off. That's been a VERY strong trend. You want to buck it? Yeah, ok, good luck, the great thing about trends is, when you are wrong once you don't immediately play the trend again, you wait to see if it works again. I've made MILLIONS off government intervention news plays at this point in the last few months, one time (maybe today) I'll be wrong and I'll lose, but I ain't losing millions, I can assure you of that! And, thats why our clients pay us the big Ka-chingos, cause we can have a game plan for everything. YOU need to sign up and try the chat room, our Ninja Service or something lesser. It's time!

In the meantime, that's my story and I'm sticking to it. I got my MRI results back, eh, not too bad, only 1 herniated disk, 2 buldging disks, 2 contusions, all in the back, and 3 buldging disks in my neck, and a pinched neck nerve. No biggie, I'm tough! I'll be out doing physical therapy alot the next few weeks and hopefully good as new after that. What can ya do? It coulda been a lot worse, so I am VERY grateful!

Stay tuned, the fun is about to begin!