Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Another Tuesday, another TURNAROUND TUESDAY!

BAMM!

Nice day fading the GAPS. Very nice, textbook day off yesterday. I thought we would gap up but even better we gapped down. Very sweet day all around.

Tomorrow should be very interesting. A nice gap down should again be buyable. WFC reports premarket and should dicate some of the action, but we look like we MIGHT want to go a bit higher here and retest Friday's highs around 870s on the S & P, which is 20 or so points higher, or about 200 points on the DOW. I had said a while ago that on this move 8500 was a good marker to see if we can get there. We haven't quite got there, but I suspect we will sooner rather then later.

The trick here is going to continue to be what happens with the banks, and obviously some key earnings. We have a couple of them this week. AAPL and AMZN are keys. YHOO of course blew out and the stock was trading $15s after hours. If it can hold $15 its a good bet to see $17 area, I'd watch 10 am for an entry if you want to trade it.

I'd watch the insurers here. I pointed out AAPL and MS yesterday here on gap downs, and both were STELLAR. With the AFL news today the other insurers should catch up. A nice gap down and they are a sure play for me for a quick trade to green, or more, with a stop at 10 am rule.

This market continues to be a pretty easy trading market (knock on wood). It's funny, I got an email today from someone telling me that I keep getting GS wrong.

I chuckle cause that's completely ridiculous. I don't EVER get GS wrong unless I trade it and lose money on it for myself or clients. That's it. I'm long some MS and sold some today on the move up, I'm not short GS and in fact I made a boatload of money today, so how am I wrong about GS?

Do I think GS is disgusting? Yeah, I do. Do I think the stock should eventually trade under $10. Yup, I still do. Does it matter, any of that? Nope, it don't. There's a reason I haven't done a SHORTS list this year, its cause I am not yet ready to make that call on the market. Trust me, I will, but right now I don't see the rush, so I'll just wait the market out.

Remember the old adage, the market can be wrong longer then you can wait for it to be right. Or something like that, hehe. Basically, I'm saying that you can't be so stubborn that you keep shorting or buying a stock that keeps saying it wants to go one way or the other. I said it here the other night, when the market is telling you to be bullish you have to be an ass to look for short entries. We played FAZ and it did very well up til the gap down today. In fact, it rocked. But, that was it, you can't then fight the market all day and expect to make money. The market was telling you it wanted to go higher today, so why would you try to fade that trying to pick a top?

It's very important to remember these things, folks. I'm not a perfect trader, I made a couple stupid mistakes today time frame wise. I was long and should have sold at 1 pm and then rebought post 2:30, and I "knew it" but got greedy a bit and while still rocking, I cost myself some good hard traded money. These things happen, have to let it go and move on. It's like anything else in life, you can't get stuck on the negative or you ARE The negative and the negative rarely makes money, or wins. So, you make a mistake, try to learn from it and then move on from it. I also didn't trust my gut on a couple trades and calls. I "knew" IBM was a screaming buy on the gap down but just didn't play it. It happens.

Again, I'd watch the insurers unless we just roll over, which seems unlikely without bad news. PRU and HIG are my two faves here if they move, and particularly on a gap down. Risky trades, and I wouldn't want to swing them heavily, but they could catch up to AFL.


Today the funds were lined up to buy the gap down. The bullish thing about todays move was it came on much heavier volume then yesterday's sell off. That's very bullish and if we gap down I think its an auto buy. If you were in the class the other day you know this all,though.

there are a few nice setups here that I'll detail to paying clients. In the meantime, I would stay day to day here, leaning long until proven otherwise. While there is risk holding certain things here, I'm much more comfortable trading both sides here.

I continue to read a lot of negative stuff on GS and the banks. Rightfully so. And, I continue to believe that Nationalizing was the best thing by far to do. No one is listening, but I'll stick to my idea being best until they really prove that there is actually something good happening in the economy instead of pating themselves on the back that the "credit markets" are freeing up. Ah huh, and if my aunt had balls she'd be my Uncle. Sure thing, toots.

One last thought for the night, its truly astounding to me the same analysts who have been wrong the whole way down continue to act as though they know something. Amazing, simply amazing. Guys like Dick Bove, who has worked seemingly for every firm in existence, which I assume has something to do with the fact that the only calls I've seen the guy make have been dead wrong. He's the guy who said that LEH wasn't going to go under and kept saying it. Now he's saying that about BAC, so buyer beware!

In the meantime, now I have a freakin' flu or something. Hehe. I'm definately the walking wounded, but as long as there is breath in this body, as long as I can speak to thou, I whilst pledge to give it to you straight, babies, cause that's all I know how to do.

RIght now futures are down about 6 S & P points, but yesterday we were up same and gapped down, so we'll see. We shall see! RULE!

Waxie

*In case you think I am on my own planet with the GS stuff, read today's Huffington Post, they say the same things I've been saying for months, if not a year. It's just a shame no one calls them on it. Lord knows I would.

3 comments:

amdman said...

Feel better man, we need you 110%. It must have been that walk out in this volatile weather :)

SilverSurfer said...

Speaking of GS, check this out:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/14227076/Behind-the-Curtain4909

Ash said...

Looking forward to your next blog post Waxie!