Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Can someone wake me up when the market does something?

Jeez, I was watching Spike late night a few days ago. And, yes, I am one of those people who REALLY doesn't watch TV unless I'm vegging at 3 am after writing my blog (like now) or whatever. Well, I was watching it and they have this show called "1000 ways to Die". Now, if you know the show, then you should see a therapist immediately, you need it, hehe. What kind of crazy world do we live in where enough people tune in to a show that shows you 1000 horrendous ways in which people actually died? And, sickest thing is, they interview doctors (supposedly) who joke about what happened to these poor saps. Jeez, louise!

Now, I'm no prude, but I was very depressed watching this, I mean, I thought that dying was when you lose $100,000 in a day trading, or you miss having a $20 gainer or five bagger cause you had to drop your kids off at school!

I guess that's 1000 ways to lose trading, instead. Hmm, maybe that would be a good show.

Do you guys and gals know that we are now francising Trendfund.com? We're working on deals in a couple of countries, talk about crazy worlds. We'll see if they pan out, but kinda cool regardless. Also, I own the trademark on the World Series of Trading and have a killer concept for it, we should be rolling that out shortly as well. Stay tuned.

The market is trading so tight its VERY VERY hard to catch stuff day to day. Intraday is even tough at the moment. The good thing is, the market is always morphing, so we had 2 years of EXTREME volatility and now we have a few weeks of very low volatility. I've said it 50 times, but key here is to be patient and pick your spots. It'll be interesting to see if we finally do get a nice pullback now that the 2nd quarter Window Dressing is over. Part of the issue with the market, in my view, is that we have so many conflicting signals. This typically would be a good time for a pullin, and we very well could get it, but then again we have earnings period here now which will garner a lot of interest as no one wants to miss another leg up if it might happen.

So, again, patience is key. And, we've got to practice it. Don't go chasing, it'll cost ya in the end.

In the meantime, I bought a new system for classes so the sound should be a lot better then it has been. It tested off the charts for those that had issues yesterday in the Psychology of trading class I did.

Stay tuned for more offers shortly!


Michael "waxie"

Thursday, June 25, 2009

WINDOW DRESSING, chop and slop...

OK, finally a nice easy day. I was beginning to wonder if I'd feel like that ever again, hehe! It's been a couple tough weeks, even for top notch traders, and yeah, even for me - waxieeeeeeeeee!

Thursday we had a big fat gap down and sweet reversal! Market rocked and closed at its highs. Very nice trend day off the gap down, those are about the best trading days we can possibly have. Once a month and you can make a living off just those days!

Friday we should get some choppy digestion action off Thursdays big move and into the weekend. I think you have to buy the open on a gap down on no news. A must buy here, and I would look at GOOG and BIDU in particular to buy. I was thisclose to calling PALM for earnings but unfortunately talked myself out of it! Hate that! :)

Tough day for Icon's, I tell ya. When have you ever heard about 3 major iconic figures all passing away within 24 hours basically? Ed McMahon, Farrah Fawcett and Michael Jackson. Ed M. the only one who lived a longish life. Farrah, what baby boomer didn't have that poster with her in that red top and her smile and, well, everything else! She was my first love, and for that I will mourn her if nothing else. I never met her, I never met any of them, but they all represent(ed) different eras, and different demographs, and all will be missed. Michael Jackson always seemed such a tragic figure. I'd have paid to get inside that dudes head for a day just to figure it all out. Maybe I woulda rewired him a bit, but who am I to judge anyone? Hey, if you want to make yourself look like Diana Ross, I'm not gonna stop ya or judge ya. I'd like to make myself look like some people, but I just don't have the cash to make it work, so I'll have to stick with what I have. Such is the tragedy of my life!!!!

I don't know, I watched Bernanke testify and then I heard all the talking heads. I mean, I'm not an expert in human mannerisms, but I would bet my bottom dollar the guy was lying like a freakin' RUG! I love that one dude who said something like "I've overseen many committees over the years and one thing I know is that at times people say they don't remember in order not to perjur themselves, are you doing that Mr Bernanke?" Of course the answer was that he REALLY couldn't remember, but it was pretty funny that he remembered exact conversations one after another, but the one that might get him in a lot of hot water he can't remember. Hmmm.

And, I love this idea that he is somehow above the law because we can't afford to rock the boat! Let me tell you something, and this is my opinion, so take it for what it's worth. During Bush's tenure this same logic was used to stretch international laws and our own integrity as a nation in redefining what the US officially was allowed to do in interegation - namely torture. Why? Well, the rationale was that it was special times after 9/11 and it was in the nation's interests to use these "techniques" to elicit information. Now, some may agree with that logic, and I respect that, I don't agree, but that's part of what makes us such a great nation, we can have discourse and agree to disagree.

Fast forward to what's going on now and here we are bending the rules and the rationale is that these are extraordinary times and that its in the nations best interest to use these "techniques" to twist CEO's arms to get them to complete deals they might not otherwise have done.

I am nowhere near perfect as a human being, or a trader. I make a lot of mistakes and have and will continue in my life. I'll be first to admit that. So, I don't like to sit in judgement often, but I think that using these excuses and invoking "national interest" in order to do something goes against the very integrity and beliefs this country was born of. Breaking the constitution because its conveinent or because its easy to say "its national interest" in my opinion is a very bad precedent to set. And, invoking it now but then condemning what someone else did is hypocritical in my view. Is torture worse then arm twisting? Yes, most assuredly if I was to compare the two for myself, but boundaries are something that once you break them, it's hard to go back and unbreak them, and it gets easier and easier to break them again. It's my biggest problem with the whole too big to fail notion. It has become easy to bail out anything and everything now and long term, I fear, we are creating a nation that doesn't hold itself accountable. That, my friends, would be tragic and a very bad idea.

One thing I love about trading is that you get to make mistakes and then redeem yourself and then make more mistakes and redeem yourself again. You get to remake yourself over and over again, each trade is a new start. But, if I lose, I lose, no one says "oh, you lost, here ya go, Waxie, we'll take that loss and you keep the profits!"

I make money, I keep it and pay taxes. I lose money, there are consequences, trust me. I have less money when I lose, its very simple.

So, I have to focus and treat it as a business. If in the back of my head I thought "ya know, if i lose its ok, the government will bail me out anyway!" it makes it much easier to lose focus and make stupid mistakes (I make my share as it is, hehe!).

Capitalism must be preserved. Hey, I don't know if Bennie has made good choices or not for sure. I don't agree with most of what they are doing or have done, and I know they just keep saying that the world would have blown up if they didn't take the actions they did (which I find disingenuous, fyi). Maybe this is all true, but the longer this culture exists, it will continues to stretch the system to the point of no return. AT some point we need to hold ourselves, all of us, accountable for our own actions. In my opinion, when that happens as a nation, we will move forward positively and be much much better off!

And, if you disagree, its totally cool. Again, that's what makes a great nation, and I certainly could be wrong, or right, or maybe fall in the middle in the end.

In the end YOU need to RULE, and rule with us!

Best to all and to all a good night!


Sunday, June 21, 2009

NO MAN'S LAND...but...

It's better then living someplace where there's no free speech, or a real market!

I can't turn on the news anymore, call me a woosey, but it's just too painful to watch people getting mutilated by their own people (or any people for that matter).

The only good that comes out of something like what's going on in Iran is that people, I think, here see that not everyone (in fact most) Iran's are not embodied by their knucklehead "President" who spews bile everyone. There are radicals everywhere, even here. It's very sad watching people get killed because they are seeking to have a voice. We're lucky to live in a place where most people respect the right to free speech and where a free market system enables us, and schlubs like me to trade and make a living. Hopefully that remains the case. We get to see what happens when government goes too far and takes the will of the people too far. Or, not far enough!

The market remains in no man's land. The bias for this week is historically VERY positive. This is the last week of the 2nd quarter and it follows a positive quarter for the markets in general, plus we have earnings upcoming on many strong stocks. That typically means we have a strong positive bias. That's the very bullish case.

On the flip side, the market hasn't been able to bust and hold above 950 on the S & P and every attempt to mount it is sold forcefully, so far.

I lean LONG, citing the bullish arguement for now, though I wouldn't play heavily here either way as I just think there are too many people leaning long along with me at this point and it could weigh on the market.

Best would be a drawdown Monday and Tuesday which would give us a place to start a nice ramp into end of the quarter window dressing.

Also remember that eventually this world crazy stuff does indeed impact our markets, we are not alone in the world and we are affected - thankfully.

Let's say a prayer for the good people of Iran who are fighting for their own freedoms and be grateful for ours.

I'm laying low this week, but should be able to post here a few times. I am just not really getting better so far and besides the fact that I had two bad trading weeks (yup, it happens to even me when I trade when I'm not supposed to!) so going to follow my own rules and lay a bit low until I'm back on my feet a bit more consistently.

Watch the range we're in for clean breaks and palces to hop on board. I think you have to buy the dips rather then sell the moves higher here still, but again, patience is a virtue, so do NOT overtrade either way!



Wednesday, June 17, 2009

I have a sneaky suspicion...

The chop and slop is about to end...

Get ready for some very good trading, both ways, folks.

Keep the powder dry. Today RIMM reports after the close, watch the action on RIMM as a near term barometer for how AAPL, GOOG and the rest of tech should act post earnings. It's unlikely RIMM won't blow out, but the stock has doubled into earnings, so does the stock go to $100s, or at least get a move up, or does it sell the news? This is a KEY earnings report.

Friday is options expiration, as I discussed in the free class today they should be angling to pin momentum stocks to strike prices (and boring stocks as well). You should be watching levels to get a favorable risk/reward.

Watch GOOG here as well, that MSFT news is NOT good for GOOG, MSFT at least initially is cutting into GOOG market share with BING and if that trend continues then GOOG's days as a $300 stock, let alone $400 are nearing an end. I still think it'll happen anyway, but BING could put GOOG on a fast track down. WAY down long term.

I'm not going to talk politics or angst tonight, I'm beat and its boring even me, hehe! I still feel the same way, and I still think I'm right, but I'm just a Waxie and no one wants to listen to a Waxie! :)

Banks are at a critical juncture here. If they can not bounce here and into end of month (I think they get a bounce at least for that) they should be toast. Do you realize that BAC has gotten so many upgrades that my head is gonna spin off if they get any more! And yet the stock is DOWN during that time period and can't bust out. Stock is $12.30 and the other day they got a $22.50 price target. I'm not sure, but I think just about every major brokerage has upgraded them to a buy recently and nothing. That's a dead tired market, folks and we need to respect that. Having said that, we should bounce here today or VERY shortly as fund managers look to buy the dip. We shall see!



Tuesday, June 09, 2009

Great stuff!

I'll tell ya, out of pain and desperation comes inspiration!

One thing that is very positive about what's going on in the economy is that I am definately getting more ideas from you guys! It is appreciated! Don't ask me about some dumb penny stock, though I own CEGE for the moment (and I do mean moment), in my ten years doing this pretty much if we've had more then 25 or 30 microcaps I'd be surprised. Maybe its a little more then that, but % wise its got to be 1/10th of 1% or less is my best guesstimate!

So, let's stick to what has worked in the past and cull winners from that!

Two emails I got TONIGHT I want to share with you, paraphrasing and pulling excerps from them;

Waxie, Next move UP? You meant down, right? hehe ... Waxie,
Next move UP? You meant down, right? hehe
when Window dressing is over (ie in 3 weeks)

jmo..i think its going to be a TANK-FEST! (only reason i am waiting to go short names like SPG)

but i guess we shall see come July...

alot of stocks that have outperformed the SPY for the qtr, which are also highly owned by the funds (90%)...IE SPG look set up to tank.

but not till June is over


Ill play the reverse window dressing stronger than the forward trend...

If FDO sells off hard going into the end of june, then id look to get it long on July 1st. (as it has underperformed the SPY) reverse set up from SPG

just curious how YOU are looking at this qtr's Window Dressing, since its the OPPOSITE of the past 2 qtrs, as in this qtr is finally UP, for once.

thanks in advance, I learned Window Dressing from you. So i have already ran my screeners to see

a) what is highly owned by funds

b) what has outperformed SPY, what has underperformed

to play the leaders long before and short after
and the laggards short before and long after

thanks in advance for any Window dressing trends you see probable this QTR.


My answer? #1 thanks for the thoughts! And, #2 I said on FOX Biz last week that I think we see the highs of the year in July. There are a couple of reasons I think that could be right. I think that particularly the financials should do VERY well from this quarters earnings and I think people won't and don't want to miss the potential move higher on good news in that sector. Earnings come in hot and heavy in and through July and it seems unlikely that we'd just tank into that. It has and does happen, but I will be surprised. Plus Tiny thinks S & P sees 1050 to 1150 or even 1200 before we do roll over and tank. So, this seems like a good place for us to go in July. Timing is everything, so we'll see soon enough, but that's my current take.

As far as Window Dressing, I agree with the assessment above to a certain degree, but keep in mind that we do bleed into earnings so I would probably shy away from the earnings plays post Window DRessing and stick with stuff that has already reported, or that reports further in the future. Timing, again, is everything, particularly in trading!

SPG I hate long long term, but it certainly could see $70s even before that happens.Right now futures pointing to another strong open tomorrow, so if that holds we'll bump right into 950 resistence and we'll see if we finally bust that and head to 1000, or just use it as an excuse to sell off again.

The next email I got was about Gold next week. Now I haven't checked into it, but the writer apparently feels strongly that Gold should move up next week and suggests playing NEM and other GOld stocks for just that week (next week). He says its worked great every year since 2001 except 2002.

My take? I have no idea on this "trend". If thats correct and its 7 of 8 that certainly could be a timing/seasonal trend that is worth playing or at least monitoring, but I'll try to check it out and see for myself.

Whether its true or not, I appreciate the thoughts, I have a couple tricks up my sleeve and plan to roll them out shortly! Stay tuned!

As long as you guys and gals are being deliberate and using proper money management and doing your research before diving in, you can come up with ideas, many of you, and come up with potentially money making situations. Well, send me any and all ideas that are reasonable at - waxie@trendfund.com, I'm happy to take a realistic look at them all and if it works will feature them here and perhaps beyond that. Come up with a few and perhaps you'll be working with us at Trendfund.com!

Ya never know! :)




Wow, we went from the most volatile period in market history to TOTAL flatline! I have officially cut down on my trading both size wise (lot size), and the amount of trades/positions. It's very tough for a trader to navigate this market outside of scalping intraday and waiting patiently for the right time(s) to play breakouts and breakdowns.

Tonight I want to discuss the art of losing, and of moving forward and putting a bad stretch behind you!

I had a couple weeks there where I had losses. Why? Because I overtraded and because I didn't make the proper adjustments. I've discussed this type of thing extensively over the years, but its important to discuss it and learn from losses. There's no shame in losing, its when you don't learn from your mistakes that its all in vain.

It's funny, I know when we hit this kind of stretch that its frustrating to many traders, including at times - ME!

I get emails where people somehow assume I never have a losing day, or week, or even month. I'm a trader, I'm in it for the long run and over the long run I feel I have a TREMENDOUS advantage based on historical patterns, and my own track record and skill level over most traders and almost all investors, but that doesn't mean I am remotely perfect or infallible.

Flatlining is the worst trading for our style of trade, I've done ok scalping some stuff with large lots recently, but that's not the style I prefer. I'm trying to adjust to the market, for now, because our job as traders is to take the candy when the candy basket is passed.

So, what am I trying to say? Well, only that we need to be patient here and pick our spots. I own CLF, I like(d) the way its been trading and if it can break past $31 it looks like it has a lot of upside. I also own CEGE as a speculative small cap, BUT I will say unequivicably that I plan on selling them and trading them on any move, and at any time based on any number of reasons. I'm an active trader when I trade and I monitor my cash balances, risk tolerance and more. I almost sold some CEGE yesterday into the close because it was up so much, but unfortunately held them all. So, we'll see what pans out, it sold off on roughly 1/2 the volume it had yesterday on the buy side day, so I do still think it can see a lot higher, but its just a stock and therefor I have no alligence with or for it.

Tiny said someone told him they were trading off what I say in the blog here. I have to tell you I think that's really foolish. I have no problem discussing things we are in, and things I like, but unless you do your own due diligence and really be comfortable with what you are doing. Plus, you never know when I'm selling something, so if you are strictly following my lead for your own reasons, well, I may be selling when you are buying, or adding when you are selling! So, you really need to have your own trading plan no matter what. Trading involves a great deal of risk, and you could lose your money, so make sure you have a comfort level that you can live with, its your money, we started Trendfund.com to help empower people to do it on their own, that includes learning to earn on your own!

Why am I harping on this? Because people are scared and when people are scared they tend to take risks and often basically gamble in many things they do in order to play catch up, and that includes trading! There is NO RUSH, the market isn't going anywhere fast so why press when you don't have to? This really is a marathon, not a sprint. Make sure you remember that the market is open 5 days a week basically 52 weeks a year. I know I will remember it myself!

I'll also remember that overall in the last few months I've made a helluva lot of money, and I do think that there is going to be a TREMENDOUS opportunity in a few weeks where we'll be able to catch a very nice trend move UP. Yummy for my tummy, and if we're patient, all of ours!

I read today that the math is mind blowing as far as budget deficits and our debt as a nation. These are scary times, lets try to make them as profitable they can be!



Saturday, June 06, 2009

More sideways chop...

Friday the market traded in a very narrow range, which lately has been status quo. Volatility has dried up a bit, which is normal in a bullish market. That means we have to adjust our trading schemes.

Its kinda like a boxing match where one guy is throwing haymakers and missing, you have to keep jabbing and moving rather then going toe-to-toe. Taking small gains isn't really my style, but we have to adjust as best we can and some of the trades I'm making are large lots which I'm taking small gains. FAZ, FAS, SRS, SDS all move decently but you aren't going to get $1+ on them 95% of the days either way. And intraday they are providing good scalping opps. Again, that's not our typical style, but that's what this market is offering.

Intermediate term trades remain swinging and getting larger moves if you are on the right side of the trade. Some small caps are just kicking butt.

Also, I've played and called a couple of spec stocks lately, some have paid off handsomely and some don't or haven't moved much. SD = huge winner, TIE = same. We're in CEGE, which I personally own 200,000 shares of, and it's break even basically. Stock has had nice insider buying from multiple execs and owners at higher prices and they are in same sector as DNDN which has been on fire. These small biotechs have been performing very well lately so we should pay attention. I can afford to play a spec stock like this, but key for any trader is risk/reward and money management, so if you don't have excess capital you may want to consider whether you can afford to play a spec stock. CEGE could see $10, but it also could languish for a very long time at $.50 or less if I'm wrong and you just tie up your capital. Remember, we want stocks that move, either way, more then stocks that just hang out and never move.

I've mentioned this before, but seeing Jim Rogers the other day on CNBC say the same thing was great. At the beginning of the year I said DOW should see 5000. We hit 6600, which was very low already, but the caveat was and remains that the Fed keeps printing money and that leads eventually to inflation and eventually leads to higher prices on everything. That includes stocks. Rogers stated he wouldn't short the market because it could go to 20,000 to 30,000. I doubt that, but the reasoning he gave is same as I said, dollar has to weaken at some pt and inflation must creep in long term. Maybe it'll take 1 to 2 years but it'll happen I believe and we can't be the last people to notice. Stocks will go up if the dollar is very weak. I think we will ultimately fall no matter what but short term the FED is propping this market up, not down and we should respect that and go WITH the tape, not against us.

I'm long CEGE, TIE, YHOO and watch RTP, if it can bust and hold $200 it should see $250 in a jiff.



Thursday, June 04, 2009

MARKET MAYHEM, what goes up MUST come down...or must it?

In a seemingly endless onslaught of up days, its good to refresh one's trading skills and ideas. There's the MARKET and THE market, and they are two very distinct things.

the MARKET is what happens in cycles of the market, its trend and counter trend moves, which often are trends in and of themselves.

THE market is just that THE market, its what happens over longer term intervals and the overall market.

the MARKET just doesn't seem to want to go down these days. I thought we'd have a top at 8500, so clearly I was mistaken. We haven't really been able to break out (yet) much beyond that, but it's tough to keep this puppy down. Every time we think we're gonna roll over and drawdown, we just get bought up again.

The debate usually rages about whether this is a BULL or BEAR market, when in fact its just the MARKET and its amateur hour to call it anything but. Most traders know this, they trade the market as it comes, day to day, week to week or market to market. And, even though they or I may appear on TV and answer such a silly question, we quietly snicker and play along with it. What's it matter? The market right now is and has been buyable on any dips, they never let things fall too far. Many, including me, have made the mistake of trying to pick tops here. It's a losing sum game. The better strategy, as I've discussed many times, is simply to go WITH the MARKET until it goes against you. Until then and for now, we can buy any real pullin. I suspect that into next earnings period in July we will get our HIGH of the year, though who knows, maybe it really is a BULL market and we are zooming to 15,000!

Maybe, but only THE market will tell us longer term.

Watch BAC and GE here, also watch TIE again, they all look like they want to bust out, assuming of course we don't get cracked, which would probably only happen on news at this point.

Tomorrow we have employment #s, market may pull in on a Friday unless they are better then expected, but again, right now they are buying any dip so its hard to have conviction about a pullback, until of course we get one!

I will try to post here more often now, I'll miss a couple days, I'm not doing much at all, but got so many emails I felt I should start posting as best as I can, hopefully thats ok with ya! :)

Michael WAXIE