Thursday, June 04, 2009

MARKET MAYHEM, what goes up MUST come down...or must it?

In a seemingly endless onslaught of up days, its good to refresh one's trading skills and ideas. There's the MARKET and THE market, and they are two very distinct things.

the MARKET is what happens in cycles of the market, its trend and counter trend moves, which often are trends in and of themselves.

THE market is just that THE market, its what happens over longer term intervals and the overall market.

the MARKET just doesn't seem to want to go down these days. I thought we'd have a top at 8500, so clearly I was mistaken. We haven't really been able to break out (yet) much beyond that, but it's tough to keep this puppy down. Every time we think we're gonna roll over and drawdown, we just get bought up again.

The debate usually rages about whether this is a BULL or BEAR market, when in fact its just the MARKET and its amateur hour to call it anything but. Most traders know this, they trade the market as it comes, day to day, week to week or market to market. And, even though they or I may appear on TV and answer such a silly question, we quietly snicker and play along with it. What's it matter? The market right now is and has been buyable on any dips, they never let things fall too far. Many, including me, have made the mistake of trying to pick tops here. It's a losing sum game. The better strategy, as I've discussed many times, is simply to go WITH the MARKET until it goes against you. Until then and for now, we can buy any real pullin. I suspect that into next earnings period in July we will get our HIGH of the year, though who knows, maybe it really is a BULL market and we are zooming to 15,000!

Maybe, but only THE market will tell us longer term.

Watch BAC and GE here, also watch TIE again, they all look like they want to bust out, assuming of course we don't get cracked, which would probably only happen on news at this point.

Tomorrow we have employment #s, market may pull in on a Friday unless they are better then expected, but again, right now they are buying any dip so its hard to have conviction about a pullback, until of course we get one!

I will try to post here more often now, I'll miss a couple days, I'm not doing much at all, but got so many emails I felt I should start posting as best as I can, hopefully thats ok with ya! :)

Michael WAXIE



Ash said...

Missed you here Waxie. Hope your feeling better. Looking forward to more of your posts.

Ash said...

Missed you here Waxie. Hope your feeling better. Looking forward to more of your posts.