Sunday, June 05, 2011

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Tuesday, March 29, 2011


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Wednesday, March 23, 2011


This Sunday, March 27th @ 7 pm EST!
Sign up for Window Dressing ONLY Sun March 27th at 7PM ESTat the following link:


Sign up for Window Dressing Sun March 27th at 7PM EST AND Earnings Runner Combo Classes! BEST PRICING!

*It will be archived if you cannot attend the live classes. The archive will be sent out the following morning after the class is given.

For those of you who don't know (or do), every quarter one of my all-time favorite TRENDS pops on my radar screen. And, many quarters we've given a Window Dressing Class AND our TOP TEN STOCKS and TOP FIVE OPTION ideas for the current quarter. These lists have overall done amazing over the years, with an unreal record that is off the charts! Having said that, this quarter not only are we charging a lot less then we've done many times in the past. AND, we're also offering a PROFIT GUARANTEE! If the list doesn't show a profit (we'll give entries and exits when sold, win/lose or draw) then you'll get the next list for FREE, absolutely no charge - period!

Also, every quarter traditionally we give an EARNINGS RUNNER list and class and this quarter I feel strongly should be some strong ideas to play. You can sign up for BOTH and get a huge discount and get the same PROFIT GUARANTEE! Read it all and sign up HERE:

Sign up for Window Dressing ONLY Sun March 27th at 7PM ESTat the following link:


Sign up for Window Dressing Sun March 27th at 7PM EST AND Earnings Runner Combo Classes! BEST PRICING!

It will be archived if you cannot attend the live classes. The archive will be sent out the following morning after the class is given.


Very interesting market here, folks. We looked dead early today but then rallied back against the grain and stretched out some nice gains across most sectors, with the industrials and metals leading the way. Some oversold and unloved stocks bounced as well, like FFIV and APKT and PCLN, while NFLX and BIDU continued their assault on upward momentum, pushing to blue skies on BIDU and closer to a breakout on NFLX if we continue to bounce (or it just does). I pity the shorts on NFLX, they had hope there for a few days that it would finally come back to earth - only to be CRUSHED once again as the stock got upgraded by Goldman and then again yesterday and then has news seemingly everyday that pushes it higher and higher...One stock trading very oddly again is AAPL. You know I liked it short longer term and we caught a very nice $20ish move down up til yesterday, but today it sold off HARD early and bounced but still lagged the overall market. Something appears to be up, but that's pure speculation on my part, so we'll see. Just don't like the way its trading, if we continue higher it will probably bounce but its up days are fewer and it bounces huge when it does which typically isn't bullish, much as bulls are happy when it does go up $8 or $10 a day. Needs a blue skies breakout to confirm in my view that it will see $400 before $300, but it very well may...

Next week we have WINDOW DRESSING and we're doing a class (I'll post the link here tomorrow) and that's typically very bullish for the market overall, so it'll be interesting to see if the market can hold over 1300 and then potentially retest those yearly highs soon. Earnings season is again in vogue as ORCL and RIMM report Thursday after the close. ORCL has beaten big and rallied hard for a while after earnings reports that I can recall, so it'll be a nice tell for us if it does or doesn't follow that trend. A weak showing would potentially scare some weak handed bulls and a blow out might push us right back to those highs I just spoke of.

RIMM is anyone's guess. I'm long a few calls that I at the moment plan on selling before earnings, and my sense is they have a better shot of going up then down further after a pretty dramatic selloff from the $70s, but the #s will tell on this one and if they are bad the stock usually tanks pretty hard. Next stop down would potentially be $50 or less if they really screw things up. We'll see soon enough...

I shorted the Euro today against the dollar, up a few sheckles, just thinking that the dollar isn't ready for complete collapse just yet. We'll see, tight stop on it and may take some profits here after I finish this up anyway. Not much would prevent the dollar from rallying so that the EURO is 1.38 area rather then 1.41 area, but against a short term trade for me that I intend to be out of very soon, if not tonight even...

If the dollar does bounce its not good for stocks, but market is all over the place so we just have to sit back, relax and play it by ear...more later - rock on and RULE!

Michael "Waxie" Parness
FACEBOOK: Michael "Waxie" Parness
Twitter: @Realwaxie

Sunday, March 20, 2011


Futures up HUGE as I write this. Nuke news turning potentially "positive" (not being insensitive at all, but more positive then it has been let's call it); Libya hope that allies will push Gadafi out of control.

This week we have earnings from ORCL and RIMM, but keep an eye on the BANKS for real key to any long lasting rally, if it is to develop. That sector should outperform after the dividend increases at some banks are going into effect, it opens up some more buying from funds that only deal in dividend stocks of certain %s. So, that's the key sector in my book.

Tech will move on ORCL and RIMM news, but has lagged very badly and even the gap up here as I write isn't remotely as large as the S & P. Keep an eye on AAPL and stocks like FFIV as they will either squeeze or completely fall apart and look out below.

1300 is the obvious resistence on the S & P, if we get there keep close tabs, a failure there may take us right back down to 1250 or lower. A break above could lead to further expansion.

NEWS still rules, so I think best bets are to be mostly cash and play what the market gives ya...

10 am rule in effect on tech and banks, if banks break higher through morning look for further upside into the close today. If they can't hold gains then we're in trouble...subject to news flow remains status quo.

Rock on and RULE!

Michael "Waxie" Parness

FACEBOOK: Michael "Waxie" Parness
Twitter: @realwaxie

Thursday, March 17, 2011

Ahhhh, the news...

So, the G7 decided to intervene in YEN Currency and the Nikkei is thus up about 2.5%, while the YEN fell off a cliff.

I guess more intervention and manipulation of currencies is going to fix everything. Right?

Hmmm, just had to check around to see why we flew. When you are moving up solely based on news you have serious issues.

There are several bullets the FED has that will continue to bubble the markets. At some point they will do QE3 and then probably QE4, etc. They've committed to making the dollar worthless as a strategy. I obviously think thats the worst thing they could do, but I'm just a Waxie and no one listens to me.

Oh, well, I try my best. The reality is that the market will go up and go down at some point based on reality, it always does. We have gone up and will continue to hold up or rally if they make the dollar completely worthless, but I'm not sure what good that'll do to own worthless paper.

It's interesting that GOLD fell off a cliff with the troubles in the Middle East and Japan BUT it rallied off currency manipulation.

Friday will be interesting because of this news and what comes out elsewhere, but it'd be so nice if we just let things play out without reacting after the fact. We just keep adding to asset bubbles to make them even bigger and all bubbles at some point - POP!

Rock on, G-dspeed to all -


Friday and more...

Does anyone want to own stocks long over the weekend with all the lunacy in the world going on? I'll be surprised baring unequivical good news if we close green Friday, though it is an Options expiration so anything is possible. Right now it feels like we have blinders on and stay in denial about reality.

Saudi King speaks at 7 am EST should move the oil market. I look for a very whippy day, so be careful BOTH ways.

APPL and tech all around is trading horribly, even on a day like today when the DOW smoked it, the Nasdaq could not sustain anything into the close. AAPL fell out of bed and looks VERY heavy here. I think on the next push lower this thing sees close to or below $300. I don't mean the next day we close down, I mean the next sustained move lower. I view AAPL as one of the best shorts on the board at this point.

I know, I know thats blaspheme! How dare I not believe AAPL goes straight up and never stops? Well, pretty easy, look at the way its trading. Anything is possible and when we get into next earnings seasons soon it'll bounce again, if not before, I just see the way its trading and its not trading well at all. It was roughly $5 off its intraday highs by the close even with the DOW pushing toward the days highs. Not a very strong performance.

Having said that, futures flying here afterhours right now, up about 16 pts, from being down about 10 earlier, so a 26 point reversal - not chump change. News rules rule continues and we are slaves to every headline that comes out of Japan and other parts of the world.

You've got to really pay attention to the news flow. I don't have the TV on but as I watch the NQ's surge here I have to assume some news came out that is positive.

If you read my blog last night you'll know I thought we would rally today but that I think we will go a lot further down longer term. I think the notion that we'll get a huge move that holds if they get the nuclear situation under control is a very nice fantasy, and maybe it happens, but I remain in the camp that belivees its just a BS stop gap move that will be beaten down.

If you haven't had a chance, read Amanda Ripley's book "When Disaster Strikes" she talks about people dealing with reality, or not talking about it.

Also, keep your eyes on the news about radiation and CA. That would clearly be huge move news if G-d forbid that radiation turns out to be stronger then they are saying.

I'm not really sure that we can go much further then 1300 on the S & P and the Nasdaq looks lower to me still either way.

So, at this point its wait and see what shakes out. Don't overdo the trading lot size and lets see if we can catch a free moves.

My #1 short remains AAPL. If you watched the way it traded today you'll know why, it hasn't been anything but relatively weak in up markets and weaker in weaker market.

Michael "waxie" Parness

Wednesday, March 16, 2011

OK< so here's da dealio...listen up -

The S & P has NOT bottomed. We have NOT flushed out the way we should on this news. We are like deers in headlights, very similar to 2008.

The FED has NOT saved or helped anything, in fact quite the opposite.

The fact that no one politically has stepped up and INSISTED that the FED be held accountable or step back and think about the real and I mean REAL ramifications of their policies is mind boggling. There are so many bright people OTHER then our FED that should have and should be brought in to offer help and instead we have a single minded solution that I don't see possibly helping anything but to try to keep things "in check" so that officials can keep their jobs.

We need a LONG TERM solution. There is no way out of this quagmire quickly. Let's be real with that and let's have an open dialog with the American people that just spills the beans on all. Then we can start on a LONG TERM solution (s) that are based on the needs of the NEXT generation, which will be the quickest fix for THIS generation (US).

Without that, we continue to go down a path of smoke and mirrors. Who has benefited from the stock markets rise other then traders (some) and the wealthy? Has it helped the midddle class at all? Has it created tons of jobs?

NO ONE, NO and NO - we don't need to be brain surgeons to figure that one out.

It seems to me, and I'd never say I know it "all" not even remotely, but it seems to me that when there are crisis situations you need to be open to any and all solutions, not just the one that one or a handful of people bring to the table. It also seems to me that the geopolitical issues that are surfacing around the world are PARTLY (some areas its slightly, and in some its more profound I think) due to the lack of real communication and honesty by the powers that ben. There simply can be no real solutions, other then the bandaids we have until the dialogue is open, until people are fed truths rather then half truths or out and out lies.

The stock market was going to, in my opinion, pull back dramatically no matter what. The crisis in Japan and other parts of the world just made it happen a bit quicker, but I gave a TOP TEN SHORTS class right before this all happened because I felt that way. I'm not patting myself on the back, I'll freely admit that I also said I thought we might get a bounce before that happened based on potential GOOD news. Trading isn't an exact science, all I try to do is make good observations based on historical trends and then make good decisions based on those observations.

What I'm observing is gross general apathy when it comes to reality and a lack of wanting to deal with reality.

When I'm going bad trading, which certainly has happened many times in my career. I have several choices, but usually it boils down to clearing my account out, cutting back on risk and starting fresh. It doesn't involve sitting in denial and continuing to do the same thing over and over again. When I've done that, and I have, then I just hurt myself even more. DENIAL is not a river in Egypt. Making the same mistakes over and over and expecting different results is by definition = INSANITY.

Right now the world is out of whack. Let's be real here and deal with it. Everyone who cares about humanity is and should be concerned with world events and world tragedies. I'm not offering solutions, I'm not in position to do that, but it seems to me that what's going on isn't working and unless I'm completely off then dealing with these things head on is the only way to truly get out of it LONG TERM.

In trading one of the first things we tell clients is "It's a MARATHON not a SPRINT!" That means that as long as I can stay in the game then the game isn't over. As long as I look at the bigger picture then my ups and downs in between are less important because my plan long term SHOULD work. Obviously there aren't any guarantees in trading or life, but at least I put myself in the best position to succeed if I do that.

I took the day off today, day after day of watching horrific images on the news has me a bit worn out and I need to clear my head. I am always confident I can rule the markets, but I can't rule the world. The world impacts me, as it impacts most of us. I'm grateful we're not going through what Japan is right now because it could be us. It could have been us now and it may be us in the future. We're all in this together.

The market WILL get a bounce here soon. It may come tomorrow or it may come next week. It'll happen for a tradeable bounce, but I do not believe we have remotely hit "bottom" and I think any bounce is a dead cat until proven otherwise.
Last night I was watching some pretty smart hedge fund guys talk about buying Japan markets because it was down "so much" and all I could think is - ok, its down a lot, the Nikkei is off about 20+% from last month. That's a HUGE move down. However, if you make that bet then you are betting that the situation won't worsen (let's hope not), but you're also betting on a rapid recovery. I hope that happens but HOPE is a 4 letter word and I just don't see other then trading it (I made money trading the Nikkei LONG yesterday and today and as I write this I'm long it but will probably be out of it by the time you read it!) making a stand until we see what pans out.

The US market on THIS NEWS alone in my opinion should be down a LOT more then it is. It doesn't matter if the Nuclear stuff clears up or not. My best GUESS is it DOES clear up, but my best second guess is we then get a nice tradeable bounce only for reality to set in and the market to then fall again. Look at the markets around the world, the volatility is off the charts everywhere but here, that to me smells like denial.

OK, so there ya go, I think 1250 could hold for now like it did today and the futures are bouncing and so is the Nikkei at the moment as I wrap this up but who knows, I certainly don't, how long that'll last.

I decided yesterday to take today off but when I saw the market gapping up it was like I was salivating. I won't say "unfortunately" though I may feel that on some level, but I stuck to my plan and just ignored what seemed like a total gimme in terms of a gap fade short.

Why? Because LONG TERM I am thinking about the overall plan and if I need to take a day or two off, then that's what I need to do. Besides, I came home and relaxed and felt good and saw the Nikkei gapping down huge and that idea was enough for me to make a small trade and I made nice cashola. See what happens when you clear things out? YOu open the doorway to better things to come.

That's what I believe we need to do with our monetary policies. It's NOT too late, but the longer we waste time on policies that show no empirical evidence of working, the longer it will take to get out of the quagmire.

And getting out of the quagmire has zero to do with whether or not the S & P holds 1250 tomorrow or the next day or week, it has to do with having a LONG TERM/MARATHON solution that will allow us to move forward and feel confident that the plan will pan out positively.

Bottom line, let's not live in denial folks. Even when the Nuclear issue is off the table in Japan that isn't the "all clear" signal for anything other then a tradeable rally. If you look at it as more then that in my opinion you are in denial.

The market will be there today/tomorrow, etc. Let's be LONG TERM peeps and not short term profit oriented in terms of making risky trades and taking unnessary risks for no reason other then being greedy.

G-d bless all and more later. Hope this doesn't offend anyone, I'm just passionate about our country and the world at large and you, my clients and far too often when we get a market souring I've seen clients sit there, deers in headlights, until their accounts are wiped out.

Please don't do that. No panic, but make a PLAN and stick to it...that's what I'm intending to do myself.

RULE and rock on -

Michael "Waxie" Parness

Tuesday, March 15, 2011


Today's fade as a total gimme, it doesn't come much more gift wrapped then that. If only every day were that darn easy.

In meantime it appears that the Nuclear issues are calming down, Japan up 6% early. I think any real bump will set us up for a larger fall ultimately but it'll make a great trade to get there. On upside the obvious target is 1300 if we can get there. Let's see what shakes out and hopefully the indications of calm in Japan keep up.

More soon, stay tuned...short list totally rocking covering on gap down good move, but watch AAPL for key signs of when we really do crack. Tomorrow should be very very interesting...


Michael "Waxie" Parness


It's nearly 5 am and I can't sleep. I should never have turned on CNN to view the tragedy that's unfolded and still unfolding in Japan. My heart and prayers go out to all people(s) affected by this hugely tragic time.

I haven't posted in quite a while, but I was inspired to write a bit more then I typically write on my Facebook page (Michael "Waxie" Parness).

Trading this type of market is hard at times. Anytime you are ruled by news where people are sitting transfixed (as I've been). So, it's amazing watching the futures literally rise and fall directly in line with almost every sentence that comes in relation to what's going on in Japan. I mean, literally every word. They say there's an explosion, market futures tank, then they say they think its contained and the market bounces. The range is insane as well, though great for trading I guess.

So, how do we trade this? Smaller lot sizes, tighter stops and be willing to take losses. Don't end up becoming an investor in something you have no real interest in owning but you are crushed on it so you keep it.

It can be very frustrating as moves are extended, then choppy, then move violently on some news story. Ultimately the market looks very weak and has and instead of dips being bought we have seemingly switched to rallies being sold. As such, that means on any GOOD news we should get a violent reaction/squeeze to the upside, but overall who in their right mind wants to be long for the long haul here this second? Perhaps that will turn out to be the best idea, but I prefer to be patient and wait.

Now, as far as support zones, watch 1250 for sure as a huge support, below that 1225 and then 1200 are the obvious choices. The world right now seems like an almost surreal dangerous place. I don't think ever in our lives or anyones lives have so many "fires" been going at once. There are potential disasters all around us. Thus, the best thing we can do is keep our integrity and our cool heads. It's hard in times like this, we're human, we see these horrible images and we naturally experience a wide range of feelings. I will submit to you that if we pick our spots we have tremendous opportunities here NOW.

So, look at support and resistence levels, don't get caught without a CLEAR plan on any and every trade (I've made that mistake a few times lately myself, it happens) and the problem is that the moves can be so erratic that we get caught off guard. Typically I can just trade on the so-called "fly" but now, in this market? I need to adjust or get snuffed!

Good trading, say a prayer for our fellow comrades in Japan and around the world, we are after all all part of the human race and we all bleed the same.

G-D bless and G-Dspeed to all and RULE!

Michael "Waxie" Parness