Thursday, October 30, 2008

Money, money everywhere!

I just got back from Miami where there are SO many empty and deserted developments. Condos are selling for less than the cost to build them. All the speculative money obviously WAY gonzo! Meanwhile, we're going to now pass another $500 BIL bil to allow homeowners to refinance. On who? Who is paying for all this? I think they should just cut to the chase, in all seriousness. Just print $100 TRILLION dollars and just hand it out to everyone. Then we can all buy multi-million dollar homes for CASH. I think we can call this the WAXIE PLAN! Why not? We're printing money all over the place, might as well just do it all at once! With MY plan, the WAXIE PLAN, we will create jobs, restimulate the housing industry cause people will be BUYING BUYING BUYING, and thus stimulate the economy. The booze business, prostitution and illegal drug trade will also zoom, but no plan is perfect! It'll also put generations into debt and impact our children and our children's children, but it's all good,dudes! It's ALL GOOD!
I shoulda not sold my apartment. I shoulda just pleaded poverty and said that my $3 MIL apartment needed a new mortgage! Maybe the government should just pay off all the mortgages in the country. While they are at it, they can pay renters rent 5 years in advance. Just give everyone a free pass! I have to say, it's pretty sickening. The market is running up just based solely on the amount of money the Fed is printing. What they don't seem to understand is they are RECREATING the same exact problems we are dealing with, only worse! But, what do I know? Maybe it'll all work and the DOW will go to 25,000. Maybe 35,000. 50,000? Nah, probably not 50,000! We've been really kicking this markets butt, I mean seriously. Up, down and all around, the calls have been pretty astounding. What's really awesome for us is that we are getting a very nice bounce here. I think S & P should see 1000, maybe even 1100 if the Fed keeps injecting more and more money into things. That will set up one helluva short, cause we are 1000% going to see 4500 no matter what they do. Mark it down, it'll come to pass. In the meantime, I am now looking at two things, trading the long side intraday and resetting some of my shorts with puts with one more nice push up. If S & P does see 1000 here shortly I'll be buying some puts on some of the ones I really like lower longer term. Look at today, HIG is done basically, PRU same, and the market rallied. It's kinda insane, its like there is the cone of silence around the market, making sure that no one sees whats really going on! But, again, as a trader this is awesome. and thats all I care about. This remains such a GREAT market to trade.If you catch moves you catch HUGE moves, this just moves in chunks. I would like a nice gap down Friday, cuase that should be VERY buyable. ASIA is barely down, and its the last day of the month and people are foolish, thinking they don't want to miss the move. Remember one of the golden rules? There is a bigger fear of missing an up move then there is about losing money! OK, so lets see where we go. I do think there's a good shot we see 1000 S & P either Friday or early next week. I'm not holding longs, but I have lightened up on shorts and trading the long side intraday for sure when appropriate. We caught stuff both ways Thursday, had some very very nice trades. My big short has been GS, and thats obviously paid off nicely. I expect MUCH lower prices on it but a rising market lifts all crapola and GS is crapola. Next week will be a big week, a lot of people are betting that we have a good November. Here's the thing, and it should be obvious to you all by now, but TRADING is the ONLY way to rule this market. We are all over the place, and everyone just rushes out and then rushes in with no real rationale either way. I mean, we going down because the market is VASTLY overvalued, and everything else is shot. We going up because the fund selling stopped temporarily and the Fed is injecting loads of money in, and we can't go straight down. And, THAT my friends is the advantage we have. We can be flexible and play it both ways, while investors are reamed and get margined out only to watch their stocks go higher once they are out. They get out, then they get back in and then they get back out, and that's why you simply can't invest, its a fools game, and its a losing game. I'll see you all after Holloween! I'm going as a Pirate, maybe I'll have the Fed walk the plank! RULE!

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

The meaning of life, or "How the market loves to print us money!"

On Saturday night I went out to this really good Indian restaurant uptown NYC with a buddy of mine. Food was really good, I go there often, maybe 2 times a month, which is a lot in NYC.
Sunday afternoon I drove by the place and there was an SUV that had swerved and drove right through the freakin' place! There were like 40 Fire trucks and ambulances, the whole car was parked firmly IN the restaurant. That's a rare occurance even for NYC! Fortunately by all accounts the couple that had been sitting right where the car struck left 3 minutes before it happened, and fortunately for me it didn't happen when we were there the night before! I remember when I was a kid, a friend of mine got run over by a car on Queens Blvd. in NY when a car jumped the curve and hit him accidentally. Random events that end tragically happen all the time, seemingly without ryhme or reason. Someone religious will put a spin on it with that bent, and I respect that, someone spiritual will say that there is some sort of lesson in it, and I respect that. In a way the market is totally random, as much as we use trends and TA and we quantify it in different ways, there are always variables that can overrule anything we or anyone can come up with. The DOW rallied nearly 900 points today. Why? Well, I can give you the very powerful TREND reason, we almost always run into the FOMC and the market was oversold and shorts wanted to cover before the meeting. And, that's mostly what happened. Random? Not really, but yes really. Our job here is to try to predict market movements, we do that better than any place I've ever come across. I'm biased, clearly, but we have been around far longer than most and we consistently provide winners to our clients. Today we shorted the open and then we went long and caught some huge winners after lunch. We had a couple of losers in between, mind you, but overall a very rewarding day. For me personally it was a VERY nice winning day. Wednesday the FOMC happens. We should get another bump early on and into the FOMC. The Fed will likely cut rates by 1/2 point as we are headed to zero percent interest. The market will like this news and probably pop initially as the first move. Never know, we'll see, but then the second move should be down, and then we'll really see where we want to go. S & P may really get my 1000 target. I still think 10,200 to 10,300 is the absolute top of any move here, and we probably don't even get there. More than likely we head back to 7500 level soon. The election is next Tuesday, and we may get a relief rally again if O'Bama or McCain wins, some will say that the market has priced in an O'Bama victory and the market would be happier if McCain wins. I hope we get a bigger up move, this is a market that is printing money, knock on wood, and the higher we go, the more room there is to the downside when that resumes. Couple people emailed me about this "tradeable rally" we're going to have. Maybe, maybe not. Remember last 1000 point up move we had? That was tradeable for a day and then we headed a lot lower. This isn't likely to last very long. It's possible we get an extended day move, but I don't really see us getting some vastly larger move. I hope I'm wrong, I constantly hope I'm wrong when I'm bearish. Since we trade we can avoid big losses and capitalize on moves both ways. See, the thing is, some things in life are random, or seemingly random at least. Me personally, I don't really believe in accidents, but that's just me. We each digest our own interpretations of life. I think since my mums passed away I take the market less seriously. It's ironic since I've had one of the best runs of my life as a trader. It really is amazing how good trading this market is. Best since 1999 and in some ways better. All you have to do is buy some ink once in a while and you can print the cash, too! In the meantime, it's late and I have a 7 am flight so I'm off to bed, maybe this doesn't even make any sense, maybe it does. I don't know if we get a bigger extention. I think there's a good shot we get a move early tomorrow and that we can rush after a 1/2 pt cut by the Fed. I would fade that move, whichever move and way it goes, cause that trend has worked for as far back as I can recall, its an excellent trading day and a great trend play to fade the 1st FOMC move for a trade. We usually then go back to the way we had gone and then pick a direction from there. THAT move is key, if we can close tomorrow near HOD, which I am skeptical about, but if we can, then we may move to 1000 S & P, maybe 1050 or 1100 potetnially. As much as I am bearish overall, I want us to move higher. So, do we get a tradeable rally? Well, 1000 pt days seem to come easy these days,thats what happens in a Bear market, snap back rallies lull you into a false sense of security. I would not fall for this one, but you have my levels. Random? PErhaps, but no more random then anything else in life. WAXIE

Monday, October 27, 2008


The party's been over for a while, now. It's scary at this point watching the same knuckleheads keep saying the same knucklehead things and the market does the same thing day after day. Yes, we are closer to a bottom! Of course you idiots! The market keeps going lower, ROFLMAO! Yes, you right for sure! DOW 8000 is closer to a bottom than DOW 9000. When we are at DOW 5000 we'll be even closer! UNREAL! Even guys who are smart and should know better like Art Cashen, they are all wishful thinking the market, as though its going to work. HELLO! HELLO! The market isn't going to zero, but it isn't going to get a 3 month rally either! It's not happening, sorry, folks! And, its NEVER EVER NEVER coming back! Sorry, you can wait 500 years and it's not going to new highs on the current S & P stocks! It's NEVER coming back. GE will never EVER NEVER see $40 again. MSFT isn't ever NEVER EVER seeing $35 again. It's just not happening. And, thats one of the problem, the notion that the market has to come back over time. NO, that's wrong and I will continue to say that until I am blue in my face! And, I'm going to put my money where my mouth is, I think I am finally ready to start the Hedge Fund. I've gotten many emails asking me to do so, so I'm going to relent I believe and do so. I'm tired of watching these idiots lead people like Lambs to slaughter! So-called experts who know NOTHING other than to say "nows not the time to sell, you should be adding, we are!" Yeah? How are you doing with that strategy? Working for ya? No, of course not, you are killing people and you will kill your clients when we are DOW 4500, which we will be unfortunately. So, we'll see, I mean, I could lose money, there aren't any guarantees at all in the market, maybe I'll smoke people, too. But, one thing I am sure of, it won't be because I am only buying stocks that I think have no shot to go up. That I am quite sure of. My new book, Rule Your Freakin' Retirement, will be the 1st book ever that I am aware of to teach trading techniques and recommend you NOT be invested much in the market. Blaspheme? No, its smart. When this is over unfortunately people are going to lose EVERYTHING and many many people won't be able to retire, its very sad. We have blindly trusted the system and the institutions that were created merely to be self serving, and now they are feeding people the BS that its not the time to sell. Let me be clear, now IS 1000000% the time to SELL! Sell while you still have something left, folks, cause I believe you won't have much if you hold for long. I'll see ya at the BEAR HUNTING CLASS tomorrow! If you haven't signed up, you need to do so NOW! Email - and she'll set you right up! RULE!

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Man, this is messed! And, the story of IRVING...

OK, I'm reading more and more disturbing things over the weekend. I think that Paulson and Bernanke are actually Ricky Jay and his 52 assistants. The magician/actor who often appears in David Mamet films. I mean, these guys are something else. Now we are going to inject money into the insurers! And, now AIG is asking for more than the $80 BILLION they said they didn't even need! They now are up to $120 BIL and growing! There is NO CAP on this spending! IT IS INSANE! The inmates are running the aslym, and NONE of it has shown or will show it works! I think we should just do what we are going to do once O'Bama wins anyway and just declare capitalism DEAD and admit we are a socialist nation and that the French and Europeans have had it right all along and we were fools for saying that Capitalism is the best system. I mean, let's just call it what it is, because we have now Nationalized companies, and we are bailing everyone out who has enough lobbying power to put pressure on the powers that be, so we are a Socialist nation, its clear. It's amazing, no one says a peep but there's no way anyone can deny the facts and they are pretty freakin' clear that we now are the world's largest socialist regime. What truly sucks is, we the taxpayers are on the hook for socialism and we don't even get Healthcare! I mean, if we're going to be a Socialist country, at least give everyone Health care! That's one of the benefits of being socialist, you have nationalized health care. We don't even get that! I keep praying that there will be a mass rally and that taxpayers will be heard because this is taxation without representation to its FULLEST! What taxpayer is for bailing out all these companies? No one I know, people were sold a BS bill of goods that the stock market would crash and burn if the bill wasn't passed, therefore it had to be passed! Well, I said it then and I'll say it again, and the facts speak for themselves, the stock market has declined precipitously since they passed the bailout plan obviously. I've said it 100 times, this will go down as the biggest CON JOB in the history of the US. This is bigger than the Brinks Job! And, its only going to get worse, all in the name of helping US. WRONG! It's hurting us, and it's hurting our children and their children! If people can not afford to live in a house, they should not live there, period. I'd like to live in a 100 acre mansion by the sea, with 17 bedrooms, 3 maids quarters and outside are parked my 7 Bentley's and 13 Ferrari's! Unfortunately, I can't afford that! So, no one should hand it to me! If I make enough money and decide to afford that, that's my choice, but I probably never will (and I doubt I'd ever waste so much money, I'd probably cut back to only 11 Ferrari's, hehe!). What BEST case is going to happen, in my opinion, is that they will continue to try to prop up the economy and housing markets (and stock markets) and fail worse and worse and people will lose their 401Ks (did you notice they are all using MY coined phrase! Turning their 401k into their 201k! That was MY LINE! RRRRG! OK, so thats really the best case scenario. EVERYTHING the Fed has done the market spits in its face. What are they going to do then? Refund everyone's stock losses? This is just INSANE!

OK< that's my rant for the night! Hope you enjoyed it! Now let me tell you why this market has a LONG LONG LONG way DOWN to go and why we are stuck for a long while..

Let me tell you about THE STORY OF IRVING...

So, a good friend of mine called me up last week and said that his father was very upset and he was worried about his mother, who isn't in great health anyway. His father, Irving, had everything he worked his whole life for in the stock market, outside his home. His father and mother are both in their mid-70s. They have been retired for a few years, Irving had owned a restaurant and was a hard worker his whole life. Irving has lost roughly 50% of his worth in the last few months. He was worth roughly $1 MIL and now he is worth roughly $500,000. That's a lot of money for a lot of people, he's not dead broke obviously but they are rightly concerned. My friend gave my number to his parents to call me and wanted to make sure it was ok they called me. Obviously it ok with me I said, though I told him to make sure they know I'm not licensed or registered, I'm just a dude with an opinion, and I can't give them advice. No problem. I spoke to Irving for about 2 hours, he told me how upset they are, how their advisers are saying they should not only not sell anything, they should buy MORE! Irving doesn't have any more money, so he can't. He asked me what I thought about the market, and I told him what I say here, verbatim, the market I believe is going to 4500 or lower and that I personally don't own a single stock long, nor would I for more than a trade. What was sad is that he kept talking to himself almost, as though to convince himself that it was the right thing to hold on and pray. I asked him if he had considered maybe doing a 50/50 since he clearly wasn't going to sell it all no matter what. I asked him if he had heard of covered calls to protect and hedge his positions. He had vague recollection of someone saying he should do that, but had no clue what it was and he said "but what happens when GE comes back, it'll cost me money to do that!"

And there you have it in a nutshell, there are so many Irvings (and they aren't all Jewish!) that are so used to the market eventually/supposedly coming back that they won't sell. That is until complete capitulation, which will ultimately mark a TRUE bottom, at least for that moment in time. But, we are a LONG way from that, my friends! Thing is, Irving and his wife could survive and live the life they are used to on that $500,000 and have their house as excess security, but because he will stubbornly hold it all and pray, it is very likely he will be forced to do things he wasn't planning on doing. Maybe he has to work again, maybe he has to take a loan against his home, which may be problematic as prices decline further, or maybe he is just screwed and has to ask the government for help. He may need a bailout if his house declines too much in value. Forget the other issues, which include the fact that he has to take care of his oldest daughter who is basically an invalid and in a home for his illness, or the fact he has to help his son, my friend, who was laid off. If I could give him literal and personal advice, what would it be? SELL EVERYTHING IMMEDIATELY, EAT THE LOSS and move on! He's been in the market for 50 years anyway, so much of the "loss" was gains he previously got. My guess is he's still "up" overall. 50 years ago GE was a lot lower, even with the drop it's had! If it was my money I'd be so far out of this market your head would spin off! SELL SELL SELL! But, truth is, even if I told him that, he wouldn't sell, HOPE is, after all, a four letter word!'

This week is going to be volatile, thats all I can promise you at this point. I'm iffy both ways. I'm thinking lower, but we certainly can get a decent bounce, so I'm staying neutral this instant. Sorry, but thats what I feel, so thats what I say! We'll get a clearer picture soon, until then keep the powder dry and remember - CASH IS KING!



Friday, October 24, 2008

So much for cheap markets

Looks like we're going to get to my 4500 target a lot sooner then expected, folks! Sorry I haven't posted, been a bit under the weather. Having said that, I had to log in here now. Good thing I was short overnight! Obviously wish it was heavier, hehe! This is why you guys pay me da big bucks! Cause you're ALL CASH and none of you have a single stock long, right? I sure hope so, cause this is only going to get WORSE. The system is broken, its not likely to get fixed anytime soon. Will we capitulate and bounce? It's possible but it won't last long. Not until people stop chasing like sheep watching analysts on CNBC who have NO CLUE and should be sued, and you all know I hate litigation as people are responsible for their own actions. The problem is, you have all these absolute idiots who keep pom pom waving saying "the Dow will DEFINATELY be higher 10 years from now, so buy buy buy!" NO, thats WRONG! You don't hold through this! This is not a buyable market in my OPINION under any circumstance. WE TRADE! I can't say it enough! DO NOT OWN STOCKS! Trade 'em, don't marry 'em! OK, so today I would expect we TRY to bounce at some point. Will it last? It might, and we could get a nice reversal and you will hear all day about the BOTTOM being in if that happens. It isn't, trade it if so but I do not believe that we are anywhere near the bottom, even though we will open down potentially 1000 points or more, that does not make it the bottom. Watch 7500 (or if possible 7370s for potential big bounce points. 7500 is the next large support level on the market, its around where we hit in 2003. In the meantime, I really hope you guys all heeded my suggestions, I know a lot of you have, but I'm sure some of you will die a very stubborn death. We are doing another Bear class starting Monday and if you are interested, which you ALL better be, email me @ and we'll get you signed up. It's the same price as the last one and its a two day class with both Tiny and I. Class starts MONDAY (this coming) and I should be going Tuesday or Wednesday. Let's rock! Option Traders are ROCKING! We have puts all across the board! HBC is a beast call, wowsa! I know I'm gonna make a lot of money today! Wheeee! Oh, one other thing, as I've said, the economic bailout is going to go down as the biggest CON of ALL TIME, you should write your congressperson and senators and tell them SHAME ON YOU! Listen to Waxie! Hehe. Also also, watching Booyahhead last night was SICKENING! AGAIN! He is blaming hedge funds for this? This guy sells books? That's the dumbest thing ever. The market prices based on reality and psychology. It's amazing, last night after MSFT reported all CNBC did was pom pom wave how great a report it was! NONSENSE! What a bunch of CRAP! I felt ill, they lead lambs to slaughter! Nice going, dudes! Why doesn't anyone say anything? I heard 500 times in the last month, at least, that you shouldn't sell, it was too late to sell! What a crock of BS, damn it! I am so angry that people keep saying that this is "the buy of the century!" How? Based on what? I just don't get it, and it makes me sick. Not that anyone is wrong, I'm wrong a lot as a trader (and in life) but I would never GUARANTEE anything! Anyone who does is just wrong, dead wrong and the people you watch on TV, including Mr.Buffet who pom pom wave are just WRONG and will continue to be wrong for a VERY VERY long time! This is just one step toward properly pricing the stock market, you heard it hear! I wish I was pushing to get on TV cause not that I know much, but I did know this! RULE! And, see ya Monday at the BEAR HUNTING CLASS! Waxie

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

S & P should see 1000 here

AAPL #s horrid, but stock zooming. Little late for my party, but such is trading. We may get a nice pop tomorrow if AAPL holds up. It should set up a nice opp later this week to the short side, but here I'd be looking tomorrow using the 10 am rule either way. Today's selling was opposite of yesterday's buying, which means it was lackluster, that leads to exaggerated moves both ways. Shorts may scurry tomorrow with the way AAPL is just chugging after hours here. Keep in mind that one reason AAPL is chugging is that it has $25 BIL in cash and had a 80 BIL market cap as of the close today. That's a lot of gun powder to rely on.
This market is looney, so I'm trading smaller lots here until we get a clearer signal either way. One day up, one day down is very choppy. Watch the 10 am rule Wednesday, a breakout over the highs should be buyable. A breakdown not sure. Let's see what shakes out. See, I told ya AAPL would go up! yeah, ok, so I also said to sell it before the close, hehe! Ahhhhhhh, the life of a trader! As I write the stock continues to plow higher, up $15 from its afterhours lows. Very energized move. It'll be an interesting day tomorrow, keep the powder dry! Waxie

Monday, October 20, 2008

Is the bottom in?

Simple = NO, not on your life!

However, as I've stated, nothing goes in a straight line, and I thought we would see he S & Ps at least hit 1000 again. In fact, I would not be surprised if we hit 10,000 to 10,300 on the DOW.

I've gotten a lot of emails asking why I would call AAPL long even though I have it on my Bear list(s). That's what makes trading, folks! You need to stay nimble! You can't get caught being overly bearish, or bullish and then getting caught with your hand in the cookie jar when we go opposite your bias!

This is why Bear markets are always so disasterous, because everyone tries to pick bottoms and fund managers need to be invested in the market more often then not, so they have to try to find places of entry. Buffet Friday gave them a reason to justify reentry.

So, what will happen more than likely is that we get these rallies of sorts on very light volume and then the market will sell off on heavier volume and crush all the funds and wishful thinking investors who keep trying to pick a bottom. And, then when they finally ALL give up, thats when the real bottom will be in place, at least for a while.

So, do I think ultimately AAPL sees the other side of $50? Absolutely, same as I said that when I had GRMN, RIMM and 20 others now that have done what I said they would. BUT, AAPL reports earnings tomorrow after the close and thus, for me, is a buy on weakness into the report, very similar to what GOOG did. AAPL is following the same pattern, and as a Trend Trader I'm always looking for that type of mimicking move. AAPL is still a cult stock, so it may also get upgraded tomorrow by some analyst into the earnings. Thing is, regardless if AAPL goes up or down, its a good high % play to me. That doesn't mean it'll work, it very well may not, the stock is trading like its about to fall off a cliff, but I need to stick to my plan and my plan is to sell AAPL before the close. I own some calls on it, so I'll either make or lose money before earnings come out. Chances are AAPL will get a bounce off earnings, there are a lot of people short it, but since I like the stock to $50s, I just don't want to hold it over earnings. Look at RIMM for 50 reasons why we don't like to hold things over earnings to the long side, and look at GOOG for 50 reasons why we don't like to hold things to the short side over earnings! Both stocks went about $50 post earnings! That's reason enough to not gamble! The play is into earnings. Best for us to trade off of tomorrow will be to get a nice gap DOWN, fade it to the long side and then go from there depending on what the market gives. Remember, if we are going to get a couple or three days rally, which we may, then there will be lots of laggards that play catch up with todays move. Ultimately this will fail more than likely, just like all the others have so far. There's no signs unfortunately of any economic pickup, there can't be for quite a while. They are going to do another stimulus package, but it can't really help unfortunately. Growth doesn't come with these types of phoney stimuluses. Growth comes organically. The market needs to find its own level, its insane they keep tossing the kitchen sink at the market as though there is some panacea they will find that will fix the whole thing at once! It's idiotic and doomed to make things worse, but no one can stop a beaurocracy once its in motion, my friends. Plesae do me a solid and write CNBC to ask them to have me on, same with Neil Cavuto. I haven't had time since my kids were born to really put myself out there like I used to, so I do this, but I think its time for me to give my take on things, and it's time for reality to be brought into the conversation, there are so many pom pom wavers and so few truth tellers! And, please, for G-ds sake, tell that guy Dennis to shut up! I have a dang headache! RULE! Waxie

Friday, October 17, 2008

Buffet is DEAD WRONG!!! AGAIN!

It's amazing, CNBC should dress Maria and Mark up in cheerleader outfits. They continue to cost investors real money by constantly pumping the market. The marekt rallies and then dies, which is what it'll do for the next few YEARS. People believe what they want to and they see what they want to in terms of reality. Warren Buffet is a very smart guy, but he also has an agenda and like most other really smart guys, they are getting KILLED in the market this year. According to last weeks Barron's Buffet sold puts against the S & P and is down over $2 BIL this year in his own trading (he needs!). So, of course he will come out and say now is the time to buy, he's desperate! No way you say? Really? Look at Kirk Kekorian, it looks like the guy has basically lost 3/4 of his net worth in F and MGM and others! You simply can not will a market to go up. Buffet should know better, but we've all been trained for so long we refuse to believe the obvious, the market WILL 100% see 4500 or less and these guys all buying and buying more are gonna get cracked big time. It's irresponsible for CNBC to continue to ra-ra the market, attempting to will it up! Friday I called the early move, but we had a couple losers as well since I got stuck on being bullish for the day. Bad idea, and just shows you what I get for being bullish, even if its for 2 or 3 hours! Let's rock next week! We are doing another BEAR HUNTING class due to popular demand! I'll have more info shortly to send you all.


Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Yummy Yummy for my tummy!

OK, so that was potentially the easiest day in a long time! A 400ish Gap up after Monday? Yeah, sure that was gonna last!

I can't post much, but even while shooting a new show all day I made a nice KILLIN'! while chillin'!

We may get a bounce again Wednesday, we'll see, but I am sticking to the no longs overnight stance here. Govt has rigged the financials, I wish someone gave me $25 BIL! That's be very cool!

GOod luck Wednesday and Thursday!



Monday, October 13, 2008

Ya gotta love this market, baby!


I said last week Thursday that my only concern was that they would just tank us to the 4500 level right away! I mean, I know we're gonna get there, I was just hoping it would take a year or two!

Well, I shouldn't have worried, the government was gonna bail us out again, babies! Whew!

Man o man, what a day, hehe. This is the thing about Bear markets, you usually get the bulk of the move in a very short time frame. Bull markets stutter step up, bear markets stage crazy short covering rallies. You'll notice today that much of the move was created by the most heavily shorted sectors and stocks. GOOG was up $50ish, BIDU $60ish, GS up $22, MA up huge, Oil stocks, etc, etc. These types of moves are atypical to a Bullish move longer term. The bulls will argue that THE bottom is in, but I think thats rubbish. This is, unfortunately, all playing out the worst possible way. We are now nationalizing the stock market in the name of saving the economy, the Dems are rushing through a bill to create false jobs that aren't needed, billions of dollars will be ripped off by dishonest officials and the tax payer gets strapped with the whole bill! I pay a lot of money in taxes, I really don't want to give money to Citibank to help them. Why in the world would I want to do that? That's insanity, but thats whats been created, if this isn't the most disgusting non-display of democracy, its shameful. I made money today, in fact I've made money for a lot of YEARS lately, sick sick money. My futures acct is up like a gazillion % after today, my stock acct even more. I feel like its 1999 again! It's awesome, but it's ridiculous that we now live in a country where the government feels its appropriate to control EVERYTHING. All in the name of saving the system! Whatever, its a waste of time and I'm beat and have a new infomercial to shoot tomorrow. I'm headed to bed soon and I will do some Yoga before I hit the hay. In the meantime, tomorrow we look good for another big gap up! Hehe, the market is awesome! It's like a reality show, you get to see how wacky the people running Wall Street are. They dump stocks like mad dogs and can't wait to get out for a couple of weeks and today they can't wait to rush back in to get the same exact stocks are HIGHER PRICES! That's why trading is the ONLY way to make money in the market, folks, cause its the only way you have an edge. And, in order to make real money in the real market, you need to have a real edge. No real edge, no real money, all you get are Bear market rallies where every pundit alive says "buy buy buy!" and what you should be doing is SELLING SELLING SELLING into it! My plan? I'm off for a few days here, but if we hit around 10,000 to 10,300 I am resetting some shorts on my favs. It'll be interesting cause GOOG reports this week and if GOOG misses and gets cracked then the rest will fall in behind it, but if GOOG flies post earnings then you'll see a much bigger move higher. So, I'll preface my entries to coincide with GOOG earnings. I hope they blow out and go crazy to the upside. The problem with what the government is doing is that they keep creating false realities and eventually false realities become reality and reality isn't really pretty right about now! Either way, I'm trading this to the hilt. Tomorrow's open should 100% be fadeable either way. If its a big gap up I would look to fade that initial move and then use 10 am rule as a guide from there to see if we can continue the trek higher or if the move is just about done and fini!

Either way, rule HARD!


Friday, October 10, 2008

Next week...

Nice reversal today, I should have caught it better, but what can ya do? We hit below 8000, well ahead of schedule for the 4500 ultimate target. We bounced HEAVY and with a rush. We SHOULD get a rally here but how far is the real and only question. 9000? 9500? 10,000? I think 10,000 would be great place to reset shorts in a big way. GS hit our $75 target, who knew? It'll head much lower overall, but remember that a rising tide lifts ALL boats and the same applies to the market, so don't get stubborn with any shorts you might have, we'll look to reenter when the market tips its hand.

Shooting the new infomercial next week, will be out of commish for Tuesday/Wednesday and Thursday more than likely, so trade SMART!



Thursday, October 09, 2008

This is truly a historical event...

I'm sorry I was right, truly. I would rather be wrong, trust me. We are witnessing what very well may be the meltdown of the entire economic system. As I write this the futures are down another 250 points. The DOW is down over 20% in 7 days. The Russell is down from 750 a few weeks ago to now approaching 450. The stock market is no longer a viable means, and hasn't been for a LONG time, way of investing for your future, or for anyone's future.

While the powers that be continue to pound the table on the idea that if you have a long time horizon you should "hold on, it'll come back" is flawed beyond belief. As I've stated here, if you aren't willing to buy, you shouldn't be holding. A friend of mine who is a bond trader told me that one of his mentors used to say that "every day you rebuy the stock you own". I like that a lot. Think about it. Stocks are marked to market, as they should be and as assets should be, thats reality. So, if you own IBM today and its $90 at the close, then in order to hold it for tomorrow you have to rebuy it. Not literally, but figuratively for sure. When we do seminars in Las Vegas I always make the analogy that if you are playing Blackjack and you are "up" $5000 and then you play the next day and you lose $5000, to me you lost $5000 the second day. Most people, I think, look at it as they broke even. To me if its in your pocket, or your chip pile, then you own it, its yours. If you then lose it, then you, well, lose it. You lost $5000, you didn't break even. If you use this logic with your IRA or other investments then you have no choice but to be aggressive and not passive and you need to decide every day if you want to hold them. The stock market hasn't gone up in over 10 years. In fact, its down DRAMATICALLY! So, the notion that in 10 years you'll be ok is fatally flawed, right? I mean, if you used that same logic 10 years ago then you are down at least 30% and probably a lot more since most Blue Chips are down a lot more than 30% in that time frame and some are down 70 to 80% or more (EMC, C). So, this FALSE notion that if you have a long term time horizon you should hold is very much fatally flawed.

I've really ranted the last couple of months, I know. I won't apologize, I care deeply about my clients and my country and the world around us. And, what's being fed to us is garbage. This market is a sitting duck, its not coming back, probably EVER. There will be other markets, but not this one, this one is shot, stick a fork in it. How do I know that? Well, I don't "know" it, I don't know much of anything in life, I make and have made a LOT of mistakes in my life. That's what we humans do, we make mistakes and hopefully we learn enough to not repeat them again, or again and again.

I've mentioned it here several times, but the thing that has happened in every Bear market I've ever studied that is that the market ALWAYS underestimates the degree of pain and the magnitude of the decline. ALWAYS.

This Bear Market IS different, folks. This is a historic event, its kinda like Charlton Heston in Planet of the Apes in the last scene when he sees the the Statue of Liberty and out blurts "they finally did it. Damn you, damn you to hell!" Or something to that effect. Well, they finally figured out how to break the markets. This isn't about Bulls and Bears, this is about a system that is fatally flawed and that is BROKEN.

OK, I know, I know, I am and have been repeating myself. Oh, goodie, as I write this the futures have bounced and we're only down 150 pts. Rally! Now, here is the deal, just remember that any rally will be sold into so the upside here is limited. One strong trend is that when you have this type of environment that redemptions are going to escalate, margin calls are going to be unwound and reality will set in. The government proved that they really don't have an interest in saving the capital markets, which makes sense. They are now taking equity in the banks because a ton of them are bankrupt, their liabilities outweigh their assets. WM, WB, gonzo. AIG, FNM, FRE, LEH, BAC gonzo. Next in my opinion?

I'm putting together a list of stocks that I think are going to go under. I'll preface this by saying that I am NOT an expert in this type of research. I'm just a trader. A lot of what I am basing the list on is the option market and the way stocks are trading. I'm going to be sending out an alert shortly, either tomorrow or over the weekend. Hopefully they aren't all out of business by then!

Again, while I am making money, I would much rather be making money as stocks go UP. And, that does and will happen, but mainly because I think its very very sad that people who have saved to retire and trusted blindly a fatally flawed system are going to have a hard time retiring.

I'll repeat what I've said 100 times now. There needs to be a moratorium on government intervention in the capital markets. Clearly they are not helping. There is a law of physics, every action has an equal reaction. There are others, the law of unexpected consequences. When the Fed does one thing to patch up one leak, it creates another. There should be a moratorium so that a REAL solution can be found. This is INSANE what they are doing in the name of "we have to do something!" Yes, they do - NOTHING until they get a REAL SOLID LONGER TERM solution. Instant gratification has never gotten anyone anywhere, it's highly unlikely it'll cure the markets ills, folks.

I'm sorry, hopefully at least the majority of you have heeded the market calls we've made at and helped save you and make you some Ka-chingos.

I'll be back here tomorrow. It'll be a volatile day tomorrow for sure, its going to be that way for a while and thats what we traders love.

FSLR folks, its still $119 and today a report came out that said that estimates are going to come down. Take it for what its worth, you couldn't give me money to buy FSLR with. $119 solar stock in this? See ya at $25, baby, see ya at $25!

This is historic, but that doesn't make it any less painful for many people. I never feel guilty about shorting things and making money, its very impersonal, its a job, but I do feel badly that people are being sold down the river - Like lambs to a slaughter.




Well, so much for a rally! Even I thought we'd get a bounce today, but twas not to be! The best thing about trading, as always, is the ability to see your outlook is wrong and SWITCH! We bought FSLR puts when it was up and made a VERY sweet score!

And, the SKF call spread looks like it'll cash out at a 900+% return! That's what I call SWEET!

I'm having my best trading streak in 10 years. I don't trade all the time and I don't trade heavily like I used to, I make calls and let you guys make the RACK UP Ka-chingos! But, I couldn't resist some of this trading and I mean, its kinda crazy cause I turned my futures acct. from very little to up rough guess about 500%! My stock acct is off the charts SICK. Very grateful to be helping clients rack up big money, and make a little spare change on my own! You guys do realize that EVERYONE is getting hammered here. I mean, we are some of the very few people who are not only out of the market (you all are, right?) but actually making money to boot! It's insane how much people are clueless about whats going on, folks. The market is not a place for investment, its a trading vehicle and thats all. Anyone who thinks that the bottom is in is insane, pure and simple. DOW 4500, mark it down, we will get there. Nasdaq 500 to 700 AT BEST when this is over. I wish I came into today bearish. I really did think we would get a bump today, but here's the problem, the Fed came out and said that they are taking equity stakes in banks to help them. This is AIG all over now. And, look at AIG stock, folks. So, if you are buying any of these things you are SUNK. C still remains my favorite death bank and GS, which insanely held on to $100 because people are so misinformed as to what Buffet's deal means. It's a shame because GS will be $50 or less (how bout $25?) in the not too distant future if I'm right and so many people keep hearing that "well, if Buffet bought them!". As I've stated, Buffet didn't buy GS, GS can go to $1 and he'd still make $500 MIL a year. Buffet gave a loan, yet CNBC keeps misinforming the public tragically and its stabbing investors in the head. I just don't get why no one calls them to the carpet. That guy Dennie is a MENACE. He should not be on air, he is irresponsible and he is CLUELESS and he gives misinformation over and over. I suggest you all call and email and write to CNBC and ask that he resign, and ask that they get the REALITY check from yours truly. It's about time someone went on that show and spoke reality and not wishful thinking! Yeah, all those guys are putting their money to work now, NOW is the time to buy, when people are paniced! History has shown us,,,,,it's all BULL DINKY! It's NONSENSE! And it's high time the truth was spoken. The American public needs to told the TRUTH! Hey, you know what I just thought of? It's a REALLY good thing that Bill giving one of the perpetrators of the demise of our economic system, and the worlds - HANK PAULSON. It's good that we gave him and his sidekick Bucky Benanke $700 BIL! Yes, because you know, as we were told by the President and the Congress and these CLOWNS that without that bill the markets would CRASH! Wow, good thing they passed that bill! Whew, I mean, see I thought 3000 points constituted a crash, but hey, what do I know? I mean, without that bill, wow, we could be at ZERO! Right?

I just don't get it, I really don't, its so infuriating. Again and again they trek out people who are ALWAYS wrong. ALWAYS. These guys are never right. NEVER. And, let me tell you again, the market is NOT COMING BACK in 10 years or 20 years. It's FINISHED as a place to invest. It's still here and will remain here as a place to TRADE, and I really REALLY hope you've all heeeded my constant ranting. I know there are a few that read my stuff and say "this guy is too much, he's really over the top and there's no way the market is going to go to 4500! Well, ok, maybe I will be wrong. I haven't been yet as far as long term predictions, not in the 11 years I've been doing this, but hey, maybe this is the 1st time. OK, fine, maybe THIS is the bottom! I'm sure there are people who will say that. OK, fine, but you know what? There is NO SIGN of a real bottom on ANY level in ANY facet of the economy or the markets, so why in the world would ANYONE recommend that NOW is the time to buy for ANY reason? It's insane and its leading LAMBS TO SLAUGHTER! The government taking equity ownership in the capital markets is a DEATH KNOLL, folks. That's what happens in DICTATORSHIPS! It doesn't happen in capitalistic societies! It's insane, we finally have Democrats and Republicans agreeing on something and it's the worst possible scenario for us all economically! Why couldn't they agree on Stem Cell research for G-ds sake! At least that doesn't crush the world economy! I am sure they will keep doing more and more STUPID things, bring another glass of water to a forest fire! It won't work! You know what will work? I've said it over and over, let the markets FALL! Let them fall without a bailout and START OVER! We're going to get there anyway, lets get it over with FAST and then REBUILD! The Depression ended when they capitulated and it began one of the greatest growth spurts in our history! Let the markets run their natural course, let them fail and then we can create jobs and rebuild from square one, put in the proper regulations that everyone can live with and move FORWARD! Listen, I'm sorry, but real estate is STILL VASTLY overvalued. And, so is the stock market! Let the markets correct themselves and we can rebuild, what they are doing is condemning us to DECADES of a real worldwide DEPRESSION. I've said it here for months, we are going into a DEPRESSION and its not going to stop until they stop trying to cure it all at once! I'll repeat it one more time. WOWSA! SOOOOO happy they passed that bill, the stock market has completely stabilized, as have the capital markets! Sweet! Idiots, total and utter idiots. I know I'm harsh, I'm an American and I'm affected by this as well, they are destroying what we were built on with one fell swoop. Did anyone but me notice that Paulson has something sticking out of both sides of his head? Like right by his ears? Or, am I the only one who noticed? Maybe it was airbrushed away for you all. :)



Wednesday, October 08, 2008

Market goes up, you make money, market goes down, you make money...

Reminds me of Raging Bull!

If you win, you win, if you lose you win, you can't lose! Or, something like that. I'm too darn tired tonight to pay much attention to movie quotes, even if it is one of my all-time favorites! Speaking of which, I know you ALL went out and rented CRAZY FOR LOVE, which is my movie I wrote and directed, at your local Blockbuster nationwide now, right? Well, if so, go give me a nice rating on will ya? Throw a guy a bone!

As far as the market goes, well, we tried today to rally and just couldnt. I think we would have but everyone was/is fearful of what happens tomorrow when they lift the ban on short selling financials. So, they sold us off HEAVY into the close. This market is so weak its absurd. We will get a trading rally VERY soon (how's Thursday more than likely?), but no matter what I stick to my guns that we head MUCH MUCH lower intermediate and longer term. A nice rally would be great, I would love to get my favorite shorts reshort at higher prices. I covered ALL my puts and shorts that I had heading into today near the morning/midday lows. I actually own MOS and OIH here, so we'll see.

Man, I must be tired, ok, so we'll see if the old adage/trend works here, which is Sell Rosh Hoshunah and buy Yom Kippur! I think good shot we get a bounce, though again I would be trading in and out and not holding a lot of longs here or for the foreseeable future!

Man o man are we killing and I mean KILLING this market, its kinda FREAKY!

See ya on the other side,

Michael WAXIE Parness

Tuesday, October 07, 2008

I am ready to call a trading bottom...

BUT, you are gonna have to sign up for the chat room or Options Trader to get when and how I am going to play it!

How's that for a tease? I suck, don't I? We're the only place I've seen anywhere that does what we do that has completely NAILED this move! How about some props, baby?!

WOWSA! I do have to admit I thought we'd get a bounce today and then tank harder on the next go round, but what can ya do, this is why I have been saying not to go long for more than a DAY TRADE! I do have a trade for us LONG coming up. I would look to cover a lot of your shorts and puts as we go here. We could crater completely but I have an idea I am going to play more than likely and it will be a LONG, not a short! Yes, you heard me right and if I am right it will get a MAJOR move. It won't last, but if I am right it'll be tradeable for a decent move.

I tell ya, whats really scary is that all these guys keep saying now is the time to buy, or "you can't sell now, if you are in it for the long run - hold on!"

Really? Yeah, ok, keep holding. This market is BROKEN, period. And, when a market is broken that means it will overshoot to the downside. I'll repeat - the market always overshoots to the upside and underestimates the downside! I told Tiny today this is SO reminiscent of 2000 to 2003 before we bottomed. Why? Because every day we traded to new lows (well, not EVERY day, but most days) and every day we heard that THIS was the bottom, NOW is the time to buy! YOU can't sell now, hold on if you have a few years. Don't sell your IRA out - now is not the time to PANIC!

And, the infamous CNBC line "there's 4 TRILLION sitting on the sidelines, at some point its going to come back into the market".

And, ya know what? They were right! All that money came into the market after the Nasdaq went down 80% and the Dow went to 7400s! Yep, if you only held on all that way, lost most if not ALL your money, I mean that woulda been SWEET!

It is absolutely ABSURD the notion that you should be buying this market, or holding your stocks. We are HIGHLY unlikely to be higher from here a year, 2 years, 5 years from now, or sorry, even 10 years from now! I think the DOW ends up 4500, I stick to that. That means we have 5000 points to the downside. I think the Nasdaq has AT LEAST 1000 points down from here. You want to hold your stocks? You want to buy and hold here cause THIS is the bottom? You go head, G-d bless, cause you will need divine intervention to make money on more than a trade long here. Yes, I believe we will get a TRADING buy here SOON and I have a PLAN which you can get, but all it'll be is a TRADE and hell, it may not even work!

YOU need, in my opinion, to play this market worst case week to week, ok case day to day and best case hour to hour (or minute to minute!). If you are holding, and I hope and I could be wrong, but I am guessing your retirement fund is going to be worth 50 to 90% less than it is depending on how much stock you have in it.

It is astounding to me that day after day they trek out and say "AAPL isn't going out of business! Cisco is a good company! Buy stocks with dividends!"

Speaking of which, how can you buy stocks with dividends when any day they can announce they don't have one anymore? You have to take your losses and start over, in my opinion. You can not sit here and get WASTED 000000 HOPING ooooooo beyond hope that at some point they will come back. There's a saying, perhaps you've heard it - don't use good money to chase after bad money. Well, right now that's what you are doing, folks. And, even when we do bounce and get a big rally, its a joke, thats all it is. There is absolutely no shot in my opinion that we are going to stay higher.

Just remember, I've been saying it over and over, it ain't my fault if you ain't paying attention!

Sign up for Options Trader or Ninja and come get yours!



Monday, October 06, 2008

Hi, my name is Waxie, and I'm a recovering Traderholic...

Man O Man alive, what a crazzzzzyyyyy market! And, what a SWEET and CUDDLY and BEAUTIFUL MARKET! Down over 800 points at one point today I sent out an alert to start covering our shorts! I must say that was a NICE call in and of itself! Then we got LONG and caught some of that reversal to boot! I am just completely CRUSHING this market, baby! Ka-freakin'-chingo! Wowsa! I'll give you a VERY VERY strong trend, a little Waxie secret. Shhh, don't tell anyone! OFTEN when a market breaks below or above a key support or resistence it will reverse intraday. Tiny and I had talked Sunday night and we both felt that there was a good shot for a reveral off a down day intraday today. I was a little off, admittedly. I said to look at low 9800s as a place to bounce and we obviously went about 200 points below that level. Thing is, we were either going to completely crater or we were going to bounce, there wasn't any in between and THAT, my friends, is why you MUST take profits! MUST! I went basically to all cash midday and then bought some WB which didn't pan out yet after Bill Ackerman on CNBC said he owned 100+ MIL shares, I figured it might get a bounce. Was a wash basically, and we played several longs, such as GOOG for multi-point gains. Think about it, I had puts on FSLR. I sold them when FSLR was $136s. It closed at $159! That is the BEST CASE scenario! I love FSLR to under $100 eventually and probably sooner rather than later, but now I get to play it short again at a higher level! When? Let's see how Tuesday pans out. There's a shot we fill todays points and get back to 10,300s. Trust me, I'm not making that call, I am still leaning VERY bearish overall, but nothing goes in a straight line - not UP, and not DOWN! Even as I write this the futures are pointing to a pretty large gap up tomorrow, IF they hold (long way away!). I will say I ALMOST bought the futures at the close of the 1st session but just am so against holding anything long for any period of time beyond trading intraday that I passed. S & P up over 10 pts here now. I hope we do get that bounce up to around 10,500 which I think would provide a good entry, I think its gonna get tough to get too large a bounce here but we'll see what the Fed has up its sleeves to try to control the markets. Obviously they haven't done very well, have they? OK< so does ANYONE doubt the notion that passing that absurd Bill in congress didn't help the market? And, not passing it had NOTHING to do with the 777 point drop when it failed the 1st time? Propoganda is smoke and mirrors, folks, don't believe the hype! You should all try Options Trader, it is just racking up. Don't do it for me, do it for yourself! I'm gong to be doing some special options classes in 2 to 3 weeks, you should get an email or two on it shortly. I suggest you all sign up! For those that played the Short List, I mean, yes, you can say it, I RULEEEEE! Waxie

Friday, October 03, 2008

Chicken Little may be right...


Well, ok, maybe not...yet. But, as I stated and have pounded the table with you AGAIN AND AGAIN AND AGAIN for MONTH AFTER MONTH AFTER MONTH, this market is headed LOWER! You can not invest in this market, it is financial SUICIDE in my opinion!

I want to make one point which as you know has annoyed me to no end lately, we keep hearing people TWIST facts into pretzels and the spit them out as reality! As I've said, the IDIOTIC bill that they passed today had NOTHING to do with the market going up or down! NOTHING, ZILTCH, NADA, NUNCA, ZIPPO! It was insulting to our intelligence to ram that down our throats as a fear mongering way to try to sway people to vote for it! The stock market is going MUCH MUCH lower, it doesn't matter what bill they pass unless they pass one where the government really decides to nationalize the ENTIRE market! That's what they should do, just pay 3 X's the share price of each stock that it'll go up! Otherwise it's NONSENSE! This was the biggest CON EVER! In the history of this country there has never been such an out and out CON JOB! It's appalling. So, ok, since even congress was saying "see, if we vote no the market will go down!" and since they passed this LUDICROUS bill, then when do they come out and say "oh, gee, we passed it and the market is at MULTI YEAR LOWS anyway! So, they passed it and the market went DOWN! Frankly, its absolutely stuptifying to me that we elect people who are this ridiculously ridiculous! This bill does NOTHING for main street - NOTHING. They keep billing it as such, but its a LIE. A complete and utter LIE! Period, end of story. It doesn't create any jobs, it doesn't create a SINGLE job! Not one, unless you count some rich dudes who use this to make themselves even richer. It's sickening, truly sickening. OK, so I've railed enough, right? WRONG! Those of you who know me for years know I speak my mind, I can't help it, but until this bill I've refrained from really tearing into anyone or anything. I'm opinionated but I am here to help you guys with the market and such, not to tear into anyone. But this impacts us ALL and we're ALL in this together. You may or may not agree with my arguements but the facts speak for themselves. The notion that this was going to solve the problems that the very people who proposed this DUMB bill helped create was and is and remains patently absurd. Now, you know my obligatory thought - I HOPE I'M WRONG! I really do. I do not want to be right about this stuff, please please, let the market go up 2500 pts from here! Let this bill work and free up the credit markets! The problem is, I think thats hoping against reality and I don't get paid a lot of money to HOPE. I get paid to deal, or at least try to deal in REALITY! I suggest you all do as well. In my opinion, the only thing that's REALLY happening (the rest is HOPE) is that the people who created these issues, these monster problems are being BAILED OUT! That's it,folks. That's reality. Mark to market, buying WORTHLESS distressed assets, and trust me, they are WORTHLESS, what and whom does it help? You? Me? Our families? Nope, not at all. This notion that these assets have much if ANY value is absurd. Did you see Bill Gross today on CNBC? He spun a pretty different tune today about these assets. Up til now the party line has been that the government doing this was going to create MORE value for them. That's HOGWASH. It's nonsense, and now these people are saying it, now that this IDIOTIC socialistic and downright ATROCIOUS bill has passed you'll see people say "oh, well, I never said it would work! BUT, we had to do something!"
This is a travesty and it makes me sick. I am sure the forefathers of our country are rolling over in their graves, watching the belief systems that we were founded on and that they fought for, are being decimated by rash judgement, and an out and out SCAMMING of the American people. Now, look, the market will bounce, and when it does it'll bounce heavily and then they will all say "we've bottomed" and I will continue to tell you all that it hasn't, that we are headed MUCH MUCH lower and that if you wish to surive this market and this economic disaster, you must be cash rich and pick your spots. This market is a VERY good trading market, look at today, we went up 300 and then we sold the news, which I said we would. A nearly 500 point range is a GREAT trading market. A GREAT trading market and an obscenely POOR investing market. Tiny and I talked tonight about it, this market is trading like its about to fall off a cliff folks. I've never read or seen a market like this and it is, most assuredly, teetering on the edge. If it falls, baby, look out below. This bill is a travesty for democracy and the abuse that was heaped upon us to get it passed is, at least in my lifetime, unprecedented. And, the pom poms that were out leading up to this, what do they say now? Now that the market didn't just rally, now that we are sitting at multi-year lows? Now that we watched the AG sector get completely destroyed. Now what? Watch the solars, they are next to go, and the financials that have been so strong, they sold off on the news. Again, its unlikely we won't get a HUGE rally soon, we're vastly oversold, but as I've been saying, the market remains VASTLY VASTLY VASTLY overvalued and thus any rally should and must be sold into. We will trade it long and swing it short cause baby, thats the market and if you want to make money in the market you gotta go with the flow dudes and dudesses, go with the flow! Have a great weekend, let's smoke 'em next week! I hope you aren't investing, Monday we're either gonna get a bounce or you might have a very VERY big headache. We shall see what we shall see, but this time Chicken Little just might be's funny (one last thing), every pundit walks onto TV and says that the market is a buy unless the sky is falling, right? But they all said the sky was GOING to fall if this bill wasn't passed. Think about it. I hope the sky doesn't fall, but if it does then the best thing you can do is NOT be a sitting duck. Investing in this market makes you a sitting duck in my humble opinion. I hope I don't offend too many, I am here to help you guys and gals, that's my intention. It's sad to me as an American, to watch us get hoodwinked, which is what I believe happened here. Yes, something needed to be done - create REAL jobs and growth organically - but not to bail out the cancerous system that helped create it. AND< irony is, it's not going to work, its going to make it worse in my opinion. Happy New Year to all and to all a good night! Relax, next week is gonna be a doozy and I intend to ROCK IT! RULE! BTW, has anyone seen the Beer Guy? :) WAXIEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

*For those of you who missed yesterday's TOP TEN SHORTS class and LIST, you can still get in, there's still time! You can sign up for it and get the archived WHOLE CLASS! Email me @ - and I'll forward you to Sally who will get you signed up. The class archived is the same price as regular, but seriously its time for ALL of you to get it! Don't get caught in this mess, learn from our success! RULE!

Thursday, October 02, 2008


Someone needs to tell the stock market that the bottom is in, cause it doesn't seem to want to believe that!

I'm dead tired, so that's it for the night. We'll regroup Monday. Suffice to say you know where I stand, we'll see what shakes post vote. Maybe it'll fail, that'd be way cool but I doubt it since they just want to do something/anything. Today they announced the Fed already has spent $400 BIL bailing out everyone, whats another 700 BIL and then another 5 TRILLion, I ask ya!

Wednesday, October 01, 2008


OK, so I have to admit that I missed the financial rally here, but what can ya do. At least we're not short them! I think we own 1/2 share lots on two banks puts wise. We also are rocking on some of the Ags short. This is a very interesting market, and actually quite logical. Playing the news is really kicking butt here. We went long midday today because I figured that they'd push us into the Senate vote tonight. It'll pass the senate easily and I believe it'll pass the House after that now. Politics is a game and as such we have to play the game even better. That's what we do. I have to say that I am beyond impressed with Warren Buffet. If he had any doubters as far as his business savvy goes, they should all bow down. These deals he is cutting are SICK. I wish I had a 100 mil or a billion, I would swim the Hudson to do these deals! I still think the companies doing them are SHOT longer term. That includes GS and certainly GE. Any company that needs to borrow on those terms is diluting shareholder equity to the nth degree and I think long term where there is smoke, there is fire. I think the play here is to trade this sector rally into Fridays vote. C looks like it wants $25. Some of the smaller regionals are going nuts. I think we can play them tomorrow and into the vote Friday. I think the market should rally into Fridays vote assuming that the Senate passes it tonight. Would I buy and hold into Friday? No shot, but we can play any rally trade wise. I think the better play is one I am going to map out tomorrow in my TOP TEN WAXIE SHORTS class. I STRONGLY urge you all to attend! It's time for you ALL to get into the game! This market is printing money for us and it's time to take advantage of it! Sign up now, folks, before you let this TREMENDOUS opportunity pass you by! I really believe this is going to provide us with some amazing trading. You have to give yourself a chance to take advantage of it! Of course there are no sure things in life or trading but I do think this is setting up PERFECTLY for us here. Here's the link, this is your last chance to sign up for the class, do not miss it! OK, as far as the bill, I mean, nothing new to say, I stick to the idea that this is going to be the WORST thing they can possibly do. It's not going to accomplish what they say it will and in fact its going to make it a LOT LOT worse. I hope I'm wrong, as usual, but I don't believe I will be. The markets are responding as though its going to save the economy and I do not beleive there is any remote chance of that, I wish it were so. The smart money here remains the traders. Investors being told that now is the time to position themselves in front of the bottom are being thrown to the wolves. They might as well just throw their money into the wishing well. These markets certainly aren't acting investor friendly and the notion that now is the time to hold your breath and jump is based on nothing more than wishful thinking. What's going to happen when the market drops after they pass this bill? What then? What is going to save the markets then? Or, is this bill going to jsut cure everything? If I hear one more idiot say that "look what happened when the bill failed, the market lost $1.4 TRILLION! So, the bill saves us money!" I mean that is the DUMBEST more illogical tangential thinking I think I've ever heard! That's moronic, I'm sorry. You can't possibly be serious to think that the market has bottomed here, even in their wildest dreams. So, let's assume that last Thursday was NOT the bottom even if the bill passes. If we can make that assumption, which I think is a given, then how is that logical? It's not, its the thought process of dummies who watch CNBC commentators who clearly have their Pom Poms out and they heard it there so they repeat it like dumb Parrots! I am not even sure we get much of a rally if it does pass. I certainly have a plan to play it both ways, but again, you'll have to sign up for tomorrow's class! See ya there! Let's watch Socialism, I mean Democracy at its finest tonight! RULE! Waxie