Tuesday, October 07, 2008

I am ready to call a trading bottom...

BUT, you are gonna have to sign up for the chat room or Options Trader to get when and how I am going to play it!

How's that for a tease? I suck, don't I? We're the only place I've seen anywhere that does what we do that has completely NAILED this move! How about some props, baby?!

WOWSA! I do have to admit I thought we'd get a bounce today and then tank harder on the next go round, but what can ya do, this is why I have been saying not to go long for more than a DAY TRADE! I do have a trade for us LONG coming up. I would look to cover a lot of your shorts and puts as we go here. We could crater completely but I have an idea I am going to play more than likely and it will be a LONG, not a short! Yes, you heard me right and if I am right it will get a MAJOR move. It won't last, but if I am right it'll be tradeable for a decent move.

I tell ya, whats really scary is that all these guys keep saying now is the time to buy, or "you can't sell now, if you are in it for the long run - hold on!"

Really? Yeah, ok, keep holding. This market is BROKEN, period. And, when a market is broken that means it will overshoot to the downside. I'll repeat - the market always overshoots to the upside and underestimates the downside! I told Tiny today this is SO reminiscent of 2000 to 2003 before we bottomed. Why? Because every day we traded to new lows (well, not EVERY day, but most days) and every day we heard that THIS was the bottom, NOW is the time to buy! YOU can't sell now, hold on if you have a few years. Don't sell your IRA out - now is not the time to PANIC!

And, the infamous CNBC line "there's 4 TRILLION sitting on the sidelines, at some point its going to come back into the market".

And, ya know what? They were right! All that money came into the market after the Nasdaq went down 80% and the Dow went to 7400s! Yep, if you only held on all that way, lost most if not ALL your money, I mean that woulda been SWEET!

It is absolutely ABSURD the notion that you should be buying this market, or holding your stocks. We are HIGHLY unlikely to be higher from here a year, 2 years, 5 years from now, or sorry, even 10 years from now! I think the DOW ends up 4500, I stick to that. That means we have 5000 points to the downside. I think the Nasdaq has AT LEAST 1000 points down from here. You want to hold your stocks? You want to buy and hold here cause THIS is the bottom? You go head, G-d bless, cause you will need divine intervention to make money on more than a trade long here. Yes, I believe we will get a TRADING buy here SOON and I have a PLAN which you can get, but all it'll be is a TRADE and hell, it may not even work!

YOU need, in my opinion, to play this market worst case week to week, ok case day to day and best case hour to hour (or minute to minute!). If you are holding, and I hope and I could be wrong, but I am guessing your retirement fund is going to be worth 50 to 90% less than it is depending on how much stock you have in it.

It is astounding to me that day after day they trek out and say "AAPL isn't going out of business! Cisco is a good company! Buy stocks with dividends!"

Speaking of which, how can you buy stocks with dividends when any day they can announce they don't have one anymore? You have to take your losses and start over, in my opinion. You can not sit here and get WASTED 000000 HOPING ooooooo beyond hope that at some point they will come back. There's a saying, perhaps you've heard it - don't use good money to chase after bad money. Well, right now that's what you are doing, folks. And, even when we do bounce and get a big rally, its a joke, thats all it is. There is absolutely no shot in my opinion that we are going to stay higher.

Just remember, I've been saying it over and over, it ain't my fault if you ain't paying attention!

Sign up for Options Trader or Ninja and come get yours!




Jeanne Mancuso said...


'YOU' are ready to call a trading bottom? I suggest you take 2 aspirins, drink lots of fluids and call the doctor in the morning! (just kidding) I signed up for Option Trader so I hope to get that information.

It was great to be in cash today. Thank you!!!!!!!!!!!! Yesterday I put some money to work in the market when it was down 800 and made some good ka chingos as you say, and got out. I'm learning...


thomas said...

.....betting your Long is in gold/silver miners.

Mike said...

I think your comments about Federal Reserve and the government are absolutely right.

I just read the news on Wednesday morning. The Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates. Why didn't thy announce the rate cut on FOMC minutes on Tuesday. It seems that they are frightened to see DJIA plunged 500+ points on Tuesday that they decided to cut interest rates early Wednesday. I strongly feel that they are immature and they DO NOT deserve to be called "professional". They appeared to be inexperienced and CANNOT FORESEE ANYTHING. I am jealous that their jobs are so easy and highly paid. I am getting paid less than 60K a year as an accountant. But I feel lucky to have joined Trendfund. I think Trendfund is the best. I learned a lot about trading from Trendfund.