Monday, March 31, 2008


OK, so LEH(Lehman Brothers) keeps coming out saying everything is fine and dandy, they are well situated, no money worries, none at all. Citi backs them up last Friday saying that LEH is a buy cause they got no big issues. Then how come after the close today LEH announces that they are selling $3 BILLION worth of stock to raise capital? Hmm, something smells a little funky in Denmark!
Meanwhile, we are now officially done with 1st quarter Window Dressing. Market did nothing really other than chop suey it up the whole day. Awful trading day. Not everyday do ya get to hit a home run or two, and Monday was one of those days. What will Tuesday bring? This is tough, for the 1st time in a while I am looking for a sign rather than making a strong call. Trend wise we SHOULD rally on buying of the beaten up 1st quarter stocks like banks, brokers, home builders, etc. And, I'll assume that til proven otherwise, but I certainly am not jumping in front of this bus just yet. I would rather wait patiently and pick a spot that's clearer. It's funny, my clients want me often to make calls even when their aren't any to make. Let's force the issue just to make a trade! I can't do that, I do that I get smacked and so do they if they jump in the turd ridden pool with me. I'd rather wait and see. I would LOVE us to get a rally here cause it'll just set up a really nice shorting opp from higher ground.

So, let's see what shakes before committing. I think we are 50/50 and I like my odds to be a lot better than that! Futures are pointing to a modestly down open. I would look to fade the gap no matter which way it opens. Watch LEH for a clue. If the market allows LEH to rally then I think we set up for a decent short term rally. If it slams it off the news then the end could come a lot sooner than anyone thinks!

We shall see, but it should be volatile either way nd we'll look to ride a wave or two Tuesday to nirvana!

Or, something comparable!



Sunday, March 30, 2008


I LOVE that song. In one of the 4 colleges I attended in 2 years (0.33 GPA) I used to play the Kinks a LOT. I doubt I'm the only one who played the same song over and over again in College because I liked it.

My kids do the same thing. They watch the same shows over and over again, and they can listen to the same song 20 times without it bothering them. Of course now it drives me nuts and I like a lot more variety, but you get my drift. The market sings that song a LOT lately. We keep looking for the Fed to come bail things out. And, they will!

Problem is, I doubt it does anything more than rally us for s short period and then we tank even harder. That's been the pattern and I doubt it'll change anytime soon. I hate repeating myself, but sometime's I can't help myself, can't help myself, can't help my freakin' selfffff!!! The Fed getting into the mortgage business has to be the worst decision a Fed has made potentially EVER. Benanke really is proving to be the biggest bumblehead of a Fedmeister ever. Have some B&**s Ben, have some cahoonas! I mean, for crying out loud, stop the insanity! We live in a FREE MARKET society! That means if you invest/buy something it can be worth either less or more when you sell it. You can't make it a guarantee that you make money or break even on everything you buy. If you do that you devalue the dollar into ZERONESS and you disincentivize people from taking care of themselves and learnings from their mistakes, and you tip the scales of the entire system. Whateva, I am repeating myself, so I won't bore ya all with the details of my Fed bashing. I think they suck, what can ya do? it's funny listening to Booyah lately! I have to say he is a total trip. Now he says the market is going down because of short sellers! hehe, roflmao, that's one of the funniest things I've ever heard. A hedgefund guy saying that. That's sheer LUNACY. The market doesn't go down because of short sellers, sorry. That's possibly a dumber idea than the Fed! The uptick rule was moronic in the first place. Why does everyone want to bend the free market/capitalistic rulebook to suit their needs? Hey, I'm fine if we want to live in a socialist country. OK, pay my medical insurance bills, please! But, unless we want to do that, then people should stop whining and start being proactive with their own finances! I've made plenty of bad deals that have lost me plenty of money. Such is life. It sucks, don't get me wrong, but it's part of the learning curve. It's like in 2000 when everyone started suing their brokers. What nonense. Hey, you decided to invest, not your broker. If you made money would you give 1/2 to the Fed, or the broker in this example? OF COURSE NOT! So, why should you be bailed out? The economy is in shambles. SHAMBLES. ANd, its not getting better overnight, so why do we continually want to fix the problem this instant, which only gets it worse and worse?
You ALL should learn how to SHORT THE FREAKIN' MARKET! That's right, I said it. Short the market, it sucks, its worth 50 - 70% less than what it trades at. ALL STOCKS SUCK! Sorry, but I had to say it. Until people start to look at the market as a TRADING VEHICLE they will continually get burned and they will continually whine and cry and ask Mommy Fed for help. Ben Bernanke's teet must be pretty sore about now cause so many whiney people are begging for milk as though he's their mommy!

What's great is, even a lot of the conservatives are whining for a government bailout! I'm not knocking anyone's politics, it just always strikes me as funny and ironic that people will take a side that is counter to their supposed belief system if it serves them in the moment. This Fed is like a dream come true for Dems. It's Rep appointed and yet it acts like it wants to give Home Owner welfare reform!

As far as the markets go, I'm iffy here. We nailed last week in a big way. I think we can go either way this week, but I would lean LONG post Monday a wee bit because post-Window dressing we usually reverse and since the market is tanked 1st quarter it may very well get a bounce to start the second quarter. That move, if it happens, will last for a short while and then I suspect we go back down. But, of course a lot depends on what the FED and the Houses figure out what type of bailout they are going to force through for political gain. We also have some MAJOR earnings releases this week. RIMM, GOOG , so me more banks and brokers. So, we should get a nice healthy VOLATILE (love it!) market this week. I'm looking forward to it, so should you be! By the way, I am doing a special TOP 5 Shorts and TOP 5 Put Options for 2008 class tomorrow night after the close, around 4:30 pm EST. You should all sign up for it! The link is:

Please note that the money back guarantee is after 120 days. This is a list that will have a plan and I think it should play out well over 120 days (or less) rather than in a week. So, just want to make that clear. I think you all should sign up since most of you need help with shorting and learning how great it is to be open and willing to short and buy PUTS!


Friday, March 28, 2008


Trading the markets every day and listening to CNBC or CNN or Bloomberg throughout the day I hear a lot of differing info. Analyst after analyst treks out to give their opinions. Most of them are wrong, that's just the nature of the beast. It's kinda like gamblers, most lose. It's always interesting to hear when most come in on the same side of the tracks. That's when I know I should be going the other way. This morning Citibank came out saying you should buy LEH because it's trading at its lowest valuations in a very long time and slapped a $65 target on LEH. Now maybe LEH gets to $65, but I shorted LEH this morning, 3000 shares, at $41, a lot lower than their $65 target. Right now I'm up $1800 and I'll cover some soon, I'm not looking at making $5 a share, though its certainly possible. In this type of "tape" you want to fade these kinds of calls most of the time. The TAPE doesn't lie is a cliche, but it couldn't be truer than it is right now because there are a lot of pundits who keep trying to catch the proverbial falling knife. On Sunday I said I thought we would rally this week, we did and had a nice fat big move early this week and have since fallen off. These are trading rallies, but ultimately the tape says to me that we have a lot more downside overall. Now, if that call is wrong, thats great. I hope it is because I don't normally invest to the upside or downside, so the ability to trade creates the flexibility to be wrong on a long term basis but make money in the face of being wrong. Investors do not have that ability. I think thats a big problem. I always point to the brokerages, GS, MER, LEH and most of them make a lot of their money TRADING the market while telling you, the investor, that you should buy and hold and slapping $65 targets on stocks that clearly are having problems.

There are, however, some analysts who I pay attention to. This Oppenheimer analyst, Whitney, she has called the banks short (said they had issues) for a while. Last night on CNBC she slapped a $30 or less target on MER and said the banks are at least 25% overpriced here with severe issues. She is one of the few talking reality and investors would be wise to heed her warnings. Banks WILL cut their dividends. C, I believe, has a good shot at not existing in 5 years. As a trader this am I saw Citi's upgrade of LEH which moved all the brokers higher. Reading yesterday's tape I shorted LEH and I shorted MER on HER call from last night which most traders and investor saw. This is the type of tape you want to use rallies to sell into, not to add onto positions thinking its over. It's not, sorry. This am just now JC Penny said the consumer is really not spending, they missed HUGE. The futures were flying HIGHER because we had BS economic #s that supposedly were better than expected. I trust JCP missing huge over the #s right now. You would do well to heed warnings rather than latch onto growth. As I write this, my LEH short is now up almost $1 a share. I'm covering 1/2 plus a nice profit and moving my stops to b/e on the rest. My MER short is up about .80 cents and I think I'll ride that a wee bit more with a stop at b/e from here.

I'm not remotely always right. As a trader I've learned that I have to take a TON of losses but as long as I have more gains than losses then I'm doing A-OK. Investors take note, the worst is not remotely priced into this market. Use rallies to sell, hope is for analysts who are worried that if the market goes down enough they will be out of a job.


Wednesday, March 26, 2008


Market really is in the s*&^bag to say the least. I have to say, this market and the economy is so screwed it's like a sick joke. I listen day after day to the Fed, and the pundits on CNBC and it's really scary. They actually believe that the Fed is going to save the universe! They actually believe that the Fed should bail the whole entire country out! People made bad investments. Last I looked you make a bad investment, you lose on it, you have to suck it up and move on and try to make a better investment next time! Do we live in a land of whiners? My kids know there are consequences to every action. I've made a TON of bad investments that lost a boatload of money. I threw away crazy amount of money making a movie a few years ago (will finally be in your local Blockbuster in June! Called Crazy for Love) it sucked losing so much money and I sure can use it now, but its gone, I have to move on, I got no choice, baby. The Fed needs to stop treating the public like they are stupid children. If the Fed is bailing out homeowners, they should bail me out of my movie. Wny not? WHere do you draw the line? Besides, even if a case could be made as to why the Fed should do one of the dumbest ideas ever thrown out there, where is the money coming from? There is no difference doing this and just wiping the value of the US Dollar down to zero. That's where we are headed, folks. Sorry, its 1:29 am and I don't have time to put on the kids gloves. If the Fed (when) bail out homeowners they will be making the single biggest mistake in the history of the US Economy. We will 100% be headed into a DEPRESSION that is likely to last for MANY years. They will be dooming our country to the worst economic crisis we have ever known, and they will render our currency worthless. They may very well bankrupt the entire country. Bernanke has ZERO clue about what he is doing. I've said it here before, I'm considered fairly liberal in my views, but I am not blind to fiscal responsibility. You can not keep printing money and throwing it into a wishing well.

The fiscal stimulus. Let me ask anyone reading this. What the freak are you going to do with your $600? Seriously, that is one of the dumbest ideas yet. Yes, everyone gets $600 an that's going to make everything right!!

What the Fed never realizes is that in putting bandaids on economic crisis' they make it WORSE. They delay the inevitable. It was the same with the internet bubble. This is the perfect storm. An election year so no party wants to be responsible and say "we're screwed for the next 3 or 4 years, but we will be ok after that more than likely". That would be responsible and honest. Instead we get these stupid ideas that gain traction because they are all posing for their constituency and all they do is set us way back more and more.

At LEAST one of the major banks is going to go under. I believe Citibank has a very high probability of going under this year. I think Washington Mutual is shot. I think Freddy Mac and Fanny Mae are JOKE stocks. I think there is going to be serious carnage before its all said and done and its unfortunte because what would be responsible would not make people happy, but it would be the best thing possible. Wash the system out, let the real estate market collapse for a while. It'll generate jobs because it'll stimulate growth at the bottom. Instead, we're just compounding the problems and speeding up a very very bad situation, making it much worse.

I hope I am wrong, but I rarely am when it comes to this type of thing. near term I still thnk we can get one more push higher. I am hoping we get to 13,000 - 13,5000 to reset some serious shorts. In the meantime, we'll let the nutty investors get giddy everytime the Fed does something that amounts to nothing more than a bandaid. People will rush out and buy the market thinking that the bottom is in.

When is anyone going to get that as long as people ask the question "is this the bottom" then it's NOT.

I will say I'm not as bullish as I was to start the week. We have made huge lately. My account has more than tripled as of today from 3 weeks ago! that's SICK! I'm good, but thats just sick good, even for me!

Let's play this market here loose, meaning ride the waves. When the market is ready to tank I think we should catch it. The chopiness needs to be feared, its hard to trade a sideways market. We like TRENDS, they are our friends!



P.S. I know I"m gruff here, but I tell it like it is, or at least like i see it. That's all I know how to do! RULE!

Tuesday, March 25, 2008


OK, I know what you're thinking. Wow, that Waxie dude is Da Man!
And, well, I don't blame you. I am da man fo sure. Having said that, in this business I can only be da man on a day to day da man basis! Why? 'Cause one of my first lessons teaching people about the market and trading was that I could go 50 and 0 and be hailed the greatest thin' since Gunga Din, but if I lose on trade 51...I SUCK! I am the worst and someone, somewhere will write really REALLY nasty things about me! I will say, though, at least for today that I am the absolute freakin' ruler of the world! The nearly 200 clients who came to the TOP 5 Stock and Options class last night are certainly riding high in the saddle, dude and dudess'! We are SMOKIN'! It's a tad late for anyone else to get in the game, so I'll post a few of the big winners here now; COIN (up over 20% intraday), ORCL calls up 3% so far, but higher after hours, AA calls up about 20% from the open, RIMM calls and stock = ROCKING obviously (we sold 1/2 at the high of day today!), MON, well, MON total beast obviously, the list is just doing fantastic, even on a basically flat day.

The market right now should trend higher unless bad news knocks it down. it's unlikely it'll go in a straight line, but I see no real compelling reason for us to get a massive selloff again here near term, baring news (always that damn hedge!). News does RULE, as you all know by now!

I think staying away from banks and brokers this second is a good idea. If we continue to rally they will go along for the ride more than likely, but those groups are much more likely to catch a real beating news wise than anything else.

I'm going to give you guys a little hint. When the market is like this you need to look for LAGGARDS. It's one of the things I think I do better than most traders. It works both ways, meaning we can short laggards (stocks that have been strongest) when we smell blood in the streets coming as well. COIN is a perfect example. Yesterday it was up (I liked it SUnday night, so its up like 30% in two days), but our entry was super duper delicious. Why COIN? Well, Ag stocks figured to get a nice bounce after last weeks selloff, even on Friday when the tape was rocking higher. Once I saw that those stocks were primed to bounce, COIN is automatically on my radar screen. My laggard meter is on hyper alert and it's time to look for stocks that are a little smaller that can move in a big % manner. COIN fit the bill perfectly.

I think I may have another one for tomorrow, an under $10 stock that looks primed to get a nice big move potentially.

Sector rotation works like this as well. The hottest stocks all bounce, like the solars (check out FSLR and you'll see what I mean since that's the leader in that sector clearly) and in that group you look for laggards (did ya see our SOLF move today! Wowsa!). Then you look for lagging SECTORS for a bounce. Usually thats the weakest bunch of stocks thats lagged the move so far. Timing is everything and if you time it right you pay at a time when the market is ready to reward the patient traders who may have to ride a loser a wee bit before it coils and bounces higher to catch up.It's like the food chain. If you do well in one place its scarier to look elsewhere, but you definately don't want to stay your welcome and you certainly don't want to be so early that you take a big beating before the inevitable catch up stock. Trick is to study the market and a sector or two, and then look at a couple weeks daily charts on each stock. You are quite likely to see some overlapping. That's a very very good thing and one you may want to consider trying on your own.

Tomorrow fading the gap will probably be a good strategy to start the day. From there I will look for breakouts and the like. From there we'll see if I remain DA MAN! or, if I am tossing sald with Emeril!

See ya on the other wise,

Michael "Waxie" Parness

Monday, March 24, 2008

There ya are, me little rallerina!

Well, we certainly nailed it! Market did indeed rally, though much more than I was hoping for. Now? We probably pull in a little. I think we get a little range to break out of to the upside.Unless, of course, there's some news that cracks us again. That's certainly possible. Baring bad news I do think we can scale higher without that much of a pullback. Ultimately we go LOWER, but for now we still look like some back and filling and then potentially a range breakout to the 13,000s. From there, if we even get there, I would think we get a nice selloff and break to the downside.

Here is the problem, its kinda a perfect storm eventually. You have the Fed bailing everyone and everything out. Wonderful, hurray for the Fed. Unfortunately its going to catch up, it has to. The Fed can't just print money with no ramifications. People are giddy that the Fed is doing all this, but its politically motivated and it can't do anything but put a bandaid on the issues. At least thats my take, but I'm just a trader and not an economist.

In the meantime, we'll trade and reap the rewards!

Saturday, March 22, 2008


OK, for the first time in a long while, I am pretty BULLISH on the week ahead. I can see us getting a pretty sizable move here near term. In fact, I could see us over YEARLY highs in the near future before we turn back down again and get a pretty massive selloff.

So, I am looking to get long early this week on some beaten down piglets. I think some of the tech names should get a bounce. You'll have to become members on SOME level to get the best candidates, sorry. My clients pay good money for real picks and it would be unfair to just lay them here for freebies. I will say that if we do get a decent bounce and you're in the right stocks this could be a VERY nice time to rack up some huge gains. The best thing is, even if that's the wrong call we can take small loss and reverse.

I want to mention that our WORLD SERIES OF TRADING Las Vegas seminar ROCKED! Thank you all who attended! We had a great time and it was so great to meet you all. It wasn't so nice waking up at 4:30 am to trade, and that took its toll, but it was awesome and it was even better that I made nearly 200% on my account trading LIVE with you all!

WOWSA! 200% in 2 weeks ain't too shabby! We're planning a NEW seminar in NJ shortly. It'll be a one week seminar that is limited to 35 people and fee will be $1995 with a GUARANTEE you make money trading during the seminar or you'll get $1000 back immediately! If you have an interest in this special offer, please email me @ and I'll send you the details, but first 35 to sign up get it and that's that.

We're also going to start offering FOREX, if you are interested in FOREX please email me as well @ We have some special offers and I LOVE FOREX! It's open 24/7 and you can open an account with $400! It also gives you 100 X's buying power, which is attractive. We are setting up a special offer with a recommended brokerage firm to handle it, and we're doing free classes and a book/dvd offer for those who sign up and open an account.

In the meantime, look for market gains this week. Ultimately I stick to the call that the market is going down HUGE this year regardless. But, as we know, nothing goes in a straight line and so this week let's rock to the upside!

Please do post your comments, it gives me incentive to keep the blog up to date. I hate talking to myself, so speak out!

Go market - GOOOOOOO!!!! Look for a respite in the selling unless we get some really bad news. If we don't we could see DOW 13,500 in the next couple/three weeks. I hope so, cause that'll keep the volatility high and the ranges large!

Just the way we love it! This is the best trading market I have EVER seen outside 1999/2000. It's SCARY good! To be able to nearly triple my account in 2 weeks is INSANE, but thats the beauty of this market and why if you are on the sidelines, you need to get in the game!


See ya on the other side,

Michael "Waxie" Parness