Saturday, January 31, 2009

Berkshire Hathaway will go BANKRUPT...

You read it here first.

This week I am shorting, for the first time, an $80,000s stock. There's only one of those I know of, Berkshire Hathaway.

I am predicting that within 18 months Berkshire Hathaway will be BANKRUPT.

Yes, I am serious.

I hope I'm wrong, but I call 'em as I see them and I see Warren Buffets bet on the market rising as proof of Freud's theory that sex and death are the two main motivating forces in most of our lives. There was, in my view, no reason for him to make that bet, he made his mark on humanity and his billions making bets on companies mainly, selling puts on the market as large as he did is playing Russian Roulette. Yes, he could have been right, he may still be since I could be wrong, but either way it was a very foolish gamble. And, I belive it's going to bust Berkshire Hathaway out. He's already down $14 BIL on the bet, when we hit below 5000, and with the insurance sector crumbling and about to get a whole lot worse more than likely, I think the company goes belly up.

I repeat, I hope and pray I am wrong, but I have to call them as I see them. I see Chapter 11, sadly. :(

I am working on a pretty large and comprehensive article for you all. I'm hoping it gets some traction, or at least some attention. We are in deep doody, folks and unless their is some IMMEDIATE restraint we are digging everyone's financial graves.

One thing before I sign off, one of the panic moves in crisis is to become self destructive (hence Freud). In NYC Mayor Bloomberg apparently is getting ready to lay off 1000 Police officers.

During times of financial crisis, which surely no soul on earth can argue we have right now, crime rates typically SOAR. It makes sense, people are more desperate and thus commit desperate acts unfortunately. During the depression crime was huge. In NYC there are banks being robbed all over the place for the first time in many decades (think Dillinger). There are reports of muggings in Greenwich village often, crime is going up.

Why in the world would you cut 1000 police now unless you were self destructing? That's the last thing you would do as a reaction to a financial crisis. Now is a time when you need to hire MORE police so the law abiding folk feel SAFER and protected, not lay off 1000 officers and thus weaken your safety!

The market is about to take a very bad turn for the even worse I'm afraid. I am reitering that if you own a SINGLE SHARE OF STOCK you are a SUCKER in my opinion.

Yes, a SUCKER. You want to know what the biggest Ponzi scheme on earth is? Bernie Madoff, right? WRONG!

It's the BANKS and MARKETS. They both meet all the criteria of Ponzi Schemes. There isn't remotely enough money to return to depositors on either front were everyone to demand their money back. It's been burned through and lost in the mess they have created, I believe.

I'm sure some of you may think I'm harsh at times. Perhaps, but I've been dead on on this market and economy and am proud that I have helped save a lot of people a LOT of money from the testimonials that keep pouring in every week.

I wish I was wrong, trust me (have I said that? :)), but I doubt I will be. If you own stock, in my opinion, you will lose a lot more. It's similar to the Superbowl for me, I would like the Cards to win, and they may cause I am not great at picking sports winners (that's why I trade! hehe), but I think the Steelers will kill them, so that's the way I have to call it. My heart would love for the markets to go UP, but this market feels so SOOOO heavy, I just don't think it can rise on anything more than news, it's proving that out, and if I'm right, which I hope I'm not again, the market is going to be so bloody and so bad that more and more cars are going to be driving through banks, as happened this week.

I hate being right as I've been. Maybe I'm wrong, I hope so, but as you know, HOPE is a four letter word when it comes to the market and I don't want anyone here to be foolish enough to live by hope, or financially die by it!

More later, keep your composure and your integrity. Money will come and go, but our "job" is to maintain our integrity.

Oh, one last thing, then more later. I got an email this week from someone who said that the only way they could be happy, or keep their integrity is if they had money.

THAT, my friends, is at the heart of the matter. That person would say "yes, but you (me) have money, so its easy for you to say to keep your integrity!"

That's WRONG. Integrity comes from a belief in yourself and humanity. There are people in the Congo who don't rape and pillage, and there are people who do. Money alone is not cause for joy and peace and integrity. If you believe that you need to find a new spiritual discipline. This crisis impacts us all, and if it gets worse unfortunately it will test our very cores and souls. It is imperative to remember that family, friends, life itself is much more important then how much money we have or don't have. I'm not the one to coin the adage "you can't take it with you". I talked about billionaires taking their lives, this week a guy killed himself and his family over money issues. These kinds of things historically happen during times of financial duress.

And, yeah, I do "know", remember, I've lived on the streets on a park bench. Life, at times, is not easy for any of us. We all struggle, whether you have $5 or $5 BILLION. I'd rather have $5 BILLION, but I would like to think that my happiness, or lack thereof, does not hinge on being wealthy. That would be very sad and I'd be disappointed in myself.

Peace by with all, and to all a good night!




This Superbowl should be watched by 100s of people in Pittsburg and Arizona. Regardless, I'll be watching it. The "cool" choice seems to be Kurt Warner and the Cardinals. The problem for me is, while I would love to go with that, I can't get the notion out of my head that the NY/NJ JETS blew, and I mean BLEW these guys out.

I think the Steelers will completely DESTROY this team, it should be over by halftime. If the Jets can put up 47 points against them, the Steelers certainly can blow them out.

Yeah, yeah, I know, they are a "different" team. Yeah, they beat a bunch of mediocre teams to get to the Superbowl, and almost choked against a not-so-good Eagles team after racking up a big lead at home.

This is a laugher, folks. Steelers 42 to 17(if that).

Now, mind you, I haven't been right on a Superbowl in a a couple of years, but there ya go, that's it, this year I will be right! I usually like the underdog, but I just can't get that image out of my head. How can any team that the Jets blew out be Super Bowl champs? I'm sorry, it can't happen. Our horrible offense got 47 on that defense! I think if it wasn't for the glitz of Warner to Fitzgerald the line would be at least double digits, so at 6 1/2 I think it's a STEAL.

Take the Steelers, and the over since they will score close to the 47 against this horrid defense all by themselves!

Defense wins championships. Steelers in a rompfest.

And, I'm rooting for the Cards, I just can't see them winning.

Rothchild (is that his name, the chocolate heir?), is the Terry Bradshaw of this century. 'Nuff said!

Hopefully after the game someone will cut Larry Fitzgerald's hair, dudes other than Favio shouldn't have hair that long. That's coming from a bald guy, mind you! Hehe!


Market commentary tomorrow night hopefully, thanks for the well wishes, I'm still sick as a dog, though I did make a lot of money the last two days, so at least I can afford the medicine!



Tuesday, January 27, 2009

GEORGE ORWELL was wrong...

Government isn't just watching you, they are also completely blowing the dang country apart. Other than that, all is well!

Today after the close they announced what I thought they would the minute Guitner was confirmed, and what I talked about last night here. We should get a very nice pop on the hope that finally we'll have a floor in financials since the Fed, in their infinite wisdom is now assuming ownership of all the toxic assets on the banks books! Yeahhhhhhh!

First off, this will provide us with a tremendous trading opportunity here and into next week. Should provide a very good sell the news opp here. In the meantime, hard to do anything but go with the proverbial flow.

It's amazing to me that I'm just a dude, and I could fix this economy 10 x's better in my guess about 18 months. Figure outside 24 months. Once again this is going to set up MAXIMUM PAIN for investors and the economy. Another false hope rally that won't do anything more than set up a great shorting opportunity for us. I wonder if Warren Buffet is paying them to do all this stuff to save his horrible trading style, the buy and hold til you're broke model.

I wonder if they realize they probably need about 50 TRILLION to buy up all the toxic assets. I'm now firmly in the GOLD bull camp. I hate to admit it, but I have been buying Gold from around $800 an ounce. I also own some futures here. Gold may get a pullback but I think it'll have to now go higher, what they are doing is INSANE.

You want to know what to do to prepare? Buy a wheel barrow. Actually, sorry, buy like 30 or 40 of them, because that's what it's going to cost you to get a loaf of bread. You'll need an additional 10 or so to get some milk and butter.

OK, so I'm in a cranky mood, I have the flu or somethin' so I'm a tad tired and yuk-fooey, hehe. But, you get my drift, just another free ride for the banks. It's amazing, even if it works, which I do HOPE it will, we really want to keep giving CEOs TRILLIONS who helped cause this whole mess in the first place? It really is Kafka-ish. Its mind boggling. I bought some FAS afterhours, and some C and BAC, figure if they really do take all the bad stuff out of the banks the sector should really get a sick lift. It'll be interesting to see how far, but FAS was $50s a year ago, its $10s and triple weighted.

I also like AMZN a lot long here into their earnings, every net company is blowing out, even YHOO, and AMZN said they had their best holiday season ever a month ago so I like the stock to maybe to see $55 if we do get a rally next couple of days.

Thing is, never know in this market the last week, but if the banks do ignite the way I suspect they will (also watch banks like STI and COF that are beaten to hell and could get huge moves on squeezes), then S & P may push 900 again in a jiff. We'll see, but we are gonna get a big move one way or another here, and my bet is UP off this move.

Let's see what shakes, I'm going to bed early, you guys can stay up and see where the futures take us. We are already up 10+ on the ES (S & P) futures, if it can hold 850 watch for a potential 200+ point day tomorrow near the open. We shall see, I'm probably taking the day off tomorrow and through the end of the week.

Man o man alive, we are setting up disaster city in this country, such a real shame. I love hearing these knuckleheads on TV saying how much the government is going to make overpaying for worthless paper. Unreal.

850 is key, if we can hold it we can get an expansion move tomorrow and through the end of the week, if we can't then we just stay in this chop fest for longer. I suspect the latter!

Shorts are gonna be very unhappy to start the day tomorrow unless I'm completely misreading this, which is possible but unlikely. Gold is up about $6 as well, man o man, why are they intent on blowing things up just to prop up the stock market? Oy vey. OK, they know not what they reap, but they sure as hell are gonna sow.



Monday, January 26, 2009

One bumpy ride...

Man, I tell ya, this market is freakin' whacky. We go up and down 100s of points every day with no ryhme or reason. Just have to fade the fade and fade that fade, all the while lightening up on share size cause we can't gain any traction here either way. Some knuckelheads call it a "bottoming process" but thats utter nonsense. People like to label things. How is booyahheads CAT, AXP, WFC, and JOYG doing? I tell ya, people are nuts, they just keep trying to pick bottoms. I will be SHOCKED if some of these banks don't completely fail. BAC is teetering, did you see the way it traded today? Yeah, the government, in their infinately stupid non-wisdom could do something ridiculous and jack them up, but it'll be temporary and a short anyway. Look at today, early day we were rocking, all the financials just warp speed, but then roll over city. Who the hell wants to own these garbage cans? Are you kidding me? Please, anything more than a trade is pure insanity and nothing more or less.

As I write this futures are gapping up pretty large, about 100 points and 10 pts on the S & P. Now, thing is, it's FOMC day and we could run into it on the HOPE of some news, but unless that news is really good it'll be a super sweet intraday short, so get ready for that initial move, cause the TREND of FOMC day should do very well in this market.

I was thinking today, there have been several VERY wealthy people who lost a lot of money in this market, even billions, and then killed themselves. There was the guy involved with Madoff, there was the billionaire who lost a few billion but still had a couple left. I'm sure there are others. Kirk Kerkorian was quoted as saying that he lived a year too long because he lost billions.

OK, so what's my point? Well, I'm wondering about our value system. I get paid to teach people how to make money in the market. Or, at least try to do so. Many succeed, some fail, its not a perfect system, nothing is. People get some caught up, at times, in the making of the money, they forget sometimes that while we all want to attain financial freedom, ultimately it doesn't lead to happiness. I can attest to that. In 2001 after I had just made quite a few millions and thought I was on top of the world, I nearly died on a guerney, basically alone, my newborn baby girl almost having to grow up without a father. Just when I thought I had turned my life from zero to hero, it was going to be over. I saw the proverbial white light, literally. And, in those moments all I could think about was I wanted to see my baby girl, and my family and friends. I didn't for a second think about having millions of dollars. Do you think that Steve Jobs is thinking how phenomenal it is to be him right now if he's as sick as they say? I doubt it. Yet as a society we place so much emphasis on cashola. Now, ok, I want financial freedom as much as the next guy or gal, but not at any price, and that, I think, is my point. Part of the reason (a large part) we're in this economic mess and continue to make all the wrong moves to get out is because the value system is just as messed up as the banking system on some level. When billionaires commit suicide because they lose billions but still have billions left, something is very wrong. If it was one or two isolated cases then that would be different, but its not, its a culture, I think. I'm not judging anyone, I'm just as guilty as placing so much emphasis on money at times. I'm just pointing out that often times, at least in my view, these things are spiritual maladies. I was at some dumb meeting a friend invited me to because she wanted my opinion. I went with an open mind, though admittedly I thought it was gonna be ridiculous. Unfortunately it was. Bunch of conspiracy theorists talking about how Obama is the Manchurian Candidate, how the government is forcing the price of Gold down because it should be like $10,000 an ounce of something nutty like that. How we should all be doing Yoga, but we should all buy a gun! Funny, Yoga and guns don't usually go together, do they? Hmmm. Namaste, I guess!

So, question, it appears to me that Warren Buffet is about to blow his entire company up. You want one of the best shorts out there long term? SHORT BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY! Yes, I said it, short Buffet. He's lost roughly $10 BIL on his options plays if he cashed them out and if I'm right he will basically lose EVERYTHING if he continues to hold them. The company will effectively be bankrupt.

So, the question I have for you all is, if Buffet were to bust out, and let's say go bankrupt. Is he no longer Warren Buffet? Does he lose his Oracle of Omaha mystique? Does his entire life get washed down the tubes?

What defines us? This is a question I ask and have asked myself over the years on many occassions. The answer to this question, and this question alone, I believe, dictates our happy quotient. Our serenity, our ability to live in the world with integrity and honor.

I don't know, maybe it's all BS, but I was reading about this stuff today and also about the story of Steve Jobs health being investigated by the SEC. Not exactly his health, but how AAPL deceminated the info to the public. What have we come to when there are witch hunts of (former) icons? Are they going to arrest Bill Gates and Warren Buffet if their companies go under?

And, yet, meanwhile, we confirm Guitner, who pretty clearly has some integrity issues in my opinion. Where are the standards? Just because there are a few Madoff's, doesn't mean that we should go on Witch hunts and overregulate.

That's all for the night. Hopefully I'm not just babbling to myself. :)


Michael Waxie Parness

Thursday, January 22, 2009

Market mayhem

Market doesn't know which way its going day to day, its funny, I keep hearing from these guys who say we are in a "bottoming process" but really the only thing holding this market up from a MAJOR carnage down to below 5000 NOW is the HOPE that Obama and co will save it.

That's it, thats the only thing it has going for it. Otherwise it would already be down to 4000s.

Guitner should not be anything other than a garbage collector, anyone who lies that much has no ethics and supposedly thats what the new administration is about, or one of them. The guy is bad news. The idea that we need to confirm him because we're in a rush is the same total BS we were fed about the BS bailout. Please, stop the insanity and the lies already! ENOUGH IS ENOUGH! Everytime they want to put through their ridiculous agenda's, what do they say? WE MUST DO IT NOW! The world will fall apart if we don't do this NOW!

What total rubbish, its so disgusting, its blackmail, its worse then blackmail! Since when did we get so lazy as a nation that we would confirm a guy who CLEARLY is a lying tool? Since when did it become more important to put through agenda's and "look good" then it was to seek truth and justice? The guy is bad news, does anyone dispute that? Besides the fact that he's CLUELESS and been front and center in the middle of all this mess, but now its revealed the guy is ethically and morally corrupt and basically a tax cheating criminal.

It's unreal, if you or I did what he did we would be fired, or perhaps go to jail, but this guy goes it and you have people saying "we want to give the new President the tools he wants" and other total horsebleep! Man, it is just such an abuse of power, and of the system.

I got a comment here, which I appreciate, and which I posted, and which I must say I agree with much of. The new president is going to have to admit when he is wrong and he is dead wrong on this guy. This guy is bad news, very bad news, it would be much better to admit he was the wrong guy and move on then to somehow view it as a black eye on a new administration just because they made a bad choice. We all make bad choices, that's not a crime, the crime is in making a bad choice and not changing it when you have the ability to do so. I make lots of mistakes and lots of bad choices as a trader and in life, thats part of the whole deal, but the key to evolution and survival, or at least one of them, is the ability to recognize when you have made these mistakes and to take actions to correct them.

Tim Guitner is bad news, folks. Bad news usually spells bad choices and we can ill afford bad choices with the way things are. I think having a liar in that position is a VERY poor choice and shows very poor judgement on the part of our new president. Hopefully its not a warning sign, G*d help us if it is and its not being heeded.

Market I can't even discuss rationally other than to say once they announce their master plan we will probably see new lows and beyond, if not sooner. Buyer beware, you are nuts to buy this market for more than an intraday trade at this point, its a cancer and its spreading like wildfire. Bottoming process? Really? Is that what you call it when there's no way we can really rally very far?

Must be, cause thats what I see. I don't see any bottoming processes. We'll rally alright, on news and such, but we certainly are not going very far until there is something real and substantive that proves its safe to go back in the water. For now, choppy is the word and one day up, one day down is the state of mind!



Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Bailout the bailout!

Market jumped like wild fire today on the belief that the new plan of action is the same as the old plan of action! Oouch!

The government is basically saying they will pump as much money into the banks as is necessary. I'm not entirely sure what the point is, it hasn't worked one bit so far, why they feel it'll work now is beyond me. Frankly, its downright scary. For this citizen, my worst economic fears seem not so far away at this point. There is absolutely no way I can see it working. Now they are talking another 2 to 3 TRILLION! I mean, its really insane, but hey, what do I know, maybe they know what they are doing! Let us pray. Dear G*d, please please please let it work!

I think thats really our new policy, print money...and prayer!


Guitner should not be confirmed. It seems pretty clear the guy is a liar and lacks ethics to me. How could he not know to pay his taxes? This is the guy we want running a large part of our economic policy? Oy Vey. OY VEYYYYYYYYYYY!

Yes, and my dog ate my homework, my grandmother lost my homework, you won't get pregant if we do it standing up, and the check is in the mail!

I'm very impressed by Obama's actions so far. Some of it is for "show", but so what? When was the last time a president got his staff to take a pay freeze the 1st day on the job? And, when was the last time we had any real rules regarding lobbyists? So, while I definately question this "spend at all costs" strategy, and highly doubt it has any real shot of working long term, I do have to like the guys intentions. Thing is, I'm humble enough, I think, to know that I could be wrong. It's possible that these things will work. I sure do hope so. I just don't see how doing what's been done up til now to failed results and expecting it to work because we throw MORE money at the problem is a good idea. The only thing it may do, in my opinion, is do what it did today, which is falsely drive up the market.

Today I lost money. The action today took me by surprise. For the 1st time all year we didn't fade the gap for a while. Then we did and then we got this news about the "plan" and the market took off. I came into the day short so I started down and made a nice comeback but not enough to dig myself out of the ditch I started with.

I am not strong here. I made the mistake to force a couple of trades today, and when I do that I usually regret it for myself and for clients.

I think we could get a move higher from here into the "plan" on the hopes that they will completely bail out the banks, which they might. These are crazy times, the market isn't natural right now. I'm scaling back my trade lot size until I get more clarity. I've made a lot of money so far this year, my account is up about 50% overall so far. I'm very happy with that, the last thing I want to do is give it back with trades I am unsure of.

It's interesting to me, I get emails when I'm not making a ton of calls with people upset because they want more calls. Usually I call so much that some people say I call, well, too much! People have been racking up, but expectations are tough to live up to if you aren't realistic. Or, if you force trades.

Let's see what shakes here. If we run into the "plan" then chances are we'll sell it off and thats a much stronger trade then guessing here. I think we have to retest the 7500 level soon. That's why this is tough, I would be bullish here off today's move for at least a trade, but I think we have to retest those lows, so hence the not strong stance here.

Very choppy trading, folks, you have to be smart and nimble and not get attached to your positions too heavily if you are wrong. Yesterday we were down 300, today up 300. I mean, thats INSANE, but thats why this is a total trading market.

If I wasn't working, I'd take a couple days off to see what shakes here. Remember, part of being a sucessful trader is picking your spots. Don't trade just to trade, its a good way to lose your money fast. I went home pretty flat tonight, actually hedged, some long and some puts. Watch BIDU today, its been lagging and could get a very big squeeze into GOOG earnings if the market is strong.

Nuff said!

See ya later, RULE!


Tuesday, January 20, 2009


The DOW (and Nasdaq)had the worst inaugeration day drop EVER. My feelings have not changed a bit, the stock market is going to see under 5000 this year, and it may happen sooner rather than later. Anyone owning a single share of stock long is a fool in my opinion. There is still too much optimism in the face of reality for the market to truly bottom. While nothing goes up or down in a straight line, ultimately we have to go a LOT lower. Frankly, the sooner it happens the better for everyone, and perhaps the government will stop trying to interfere with te free market system at some point, perhaps now. Hopefully so. The last thing the market needs is another phoney bottom that can't possibly hold. The banking system should be nationalized, if that isn't clear by now then you aren't dealing with reality or a full deck. It's the only way out of this longer term and the longer its delayed and more money is thrown at a failed system, the worse the hole gets and the harder it is to dig us out of this. These companies are BANKRUPT. They are all (most) worth NOTHING. C, BAC, MS, HBC, JPM, WFC, they are all WORTHLESS. One of the worst lies has been this notion that the government should, or could bail out this system. It's unreal how there are still analysts saying to buy this sector! And, amazing that there are so-called analysts who say "it'll take $1 TRIL more to shore it up!" Dudes and dudesses, it'll take MANY MANY TRILLIONS, much more than the government can come up with without busting every single person in this country out completely. So, forger buying these stocks, keep owning SKF and just set a stop, it should be $500 at some point this year. We'll see, hopefully I am wrong about the market overall. I keep saying that, and I mean it. I think we could see as low as 2000s in the next 2 years, perhaps even LOWER. I think that people are out to lunch. Even now as I write this the futures are up decently. Why? Because there are just too many people trying to pick bottoms when there is no realistic way this could possibly be a true bottom. Why would anyone pick now to buy? To what, dollar cost average? That's ridiculous and that's not a tenable argument.

Right now you have a free money shot anytime we gap up. We haven't held a gap up in a very long time, and I doubt we will. Yeah, we'll get dumb government moves that will pop us and squeeze us, but they won't last, none have and none will. Markets do not stay up off government intervention, it doesn't work that way.

OK, so that's my near and long term take. I think we retest the November lows (so much for that idiotic "Hogan's bottom" which was ridiculous to begin with) and break them shortly. I think there's a better than average shot we go below 7000 even. What would prevent that would be government proping up the market artificially, but again, that won't last long. We are making lower highs and lower lows on the market and that is not a harbinger of good tidings! Folks, you have to go with the market until proven otherwise. When we squeeze we'll catch it, I am quite confident, the same way we caught the January Effect huge move and racked up!

OK, let me say a few words about the inaugeration and my perspective on things overall, for those that care to listen.

I was at the inaugeration today. I was given some tickets by a friend and I was in Washington at a movie premier of a film I produced, Gospel Hill. It was a wonderful event, the film is very timely and I think profound.

So, I went, and I must say, I'll probably never go to an inaugeration again, waiting in crowds like a sardine for 8 hours and then walking 8 miles in the freezing cold from Washington To Virginia afterwards isn't my idea of fun city. However, I will say it is pretty amazing meeting tons of people from around the world and it's the only event I've ever been to where EVERYONE was kind, compassionate, helpful and friendly and OPEN to everyone else. I mean, EVERYONE was brother and sister with everyone else. THAT was worth it all. Those of you who know my story, and some of my life, and have perhaps read me over the years know that I'm a big proponent of equality. Having lived on the streets and having a very rough childhood in a myriad of ways, you learn, if you are open to it, that we really are all in this thing called life together. I LOVED Obama's speech. I have to say that I was very moved by it, and I thought it was perhaps the best inaugeration speech I've ever heard. And, I hope its more than just words. The world is a very fragile place right now. There is no room for seperation, there must be cooperation. If there isn't then things start breaking down. We now are experiencing that in the marketplace, but that then distends to everything else. We can not be a prosperous nation, a healthy nation, without sharing with everyone else, particularly the poorest of nations. Put it this way, if you are filthy rich, but many around you are abusively poor then they will have no choice but to try to take some of your richness from you, if only to survive. So, regardless of what you feel, you are better off giving some of what you have so that you can safely keep most of what you have, and feel good about helping your fellows in the process. I think far too often we get caught in our own lives. I know I have at times. Having wealth and being unsafe are not a good combo. It's why I started and it's why I started the Trend Fund Foundation charity (501C-3). I do not want to be the only kid on the block who can afford to eat well, drive a nice car and own a bigscreen TV. So, kudos to Obama for such a powerful and moving speech. I believe we will achieve great change by inclusion, not exclusion. Exclusion is based on FEAR. Fear that we won't have enough, fear that someone will take what we have, fear that there isn't enough to go around. That, in my belief system, goes against universal truth of abundance. We can ALL share the wealth, there is enough to go around, trust me. Take it from someone who groring up never had a pot to piss in. I talk a lot about HOPE being a 4 letter word in the market, and I firmly believe that. In everyday life, though, it carries a lot of weight and can be a powerful tool. One thing that is great about having a black president, in my view, is that I think it helps dispel victimization amongst racial and gender communities. I'm not big on victims for whole communities. I think individuals can be victimized, but far too often fear mongers and hate mongers preach victimization amongst people's. From one who grew up with a huge chip on my shoulder, and without much of anything, there are no universal victims. We all make personal choices and we need to own them. If you are feeling and acting victim then you can't possibly excel in your life. I am a big believer in the indomitable spirit of humans. To me a large part of success is simply believing you can and will succeed. The President of the US is a black man. Less than 50 years after the civil rights movement of the 60's, and 40 years since Dr.Martin Luther King had a dream we have a black president. Does anyone think that Obama sat at home thinking about how victimized he was, or did he believe he could do what he's done? My guess is the latter and THAT is a key to success. I try to live my life that way, I can do anything I set my mind to, so all I have to do is believe. I was homeless and beat to crap and I am here and you are reading what I have to say, and I am considered by some a success. 'Nuff said!

I believe we can make money together, so far so good! God bless.


Friday, January 16, 2009

Am I locked in a Kafka novel???

I swear to Gawd, I just can not believe what's going on in this country. I can't speak to what's going on around the world in relation to the economic meltdown, but what's going on here is pure, unadultered insanity!

How can this be happening? Every day they just do whatever they want with our money. What happened to the constitution? What happened to representation? Does anyone in our country approve of what's going on? Other than special interest groups, and politicians?

I've said consistently I had hoped I was wrong in my gloom and doom, but obviously I'm dead RIGHT! It sucks being me sometimes! Man o man, it's like watching some surreal Brunel film (one of my favorite surrealistic filmmakers). I shake my head in between trades wondering when someone is going to intervene and just say "enough is enough, we need to let it go...just let it go".

Look, the problem is so huge that there is simply no way they can keep doing these deals. We're talking TRILLIONS and TRILLIONS. I've heard as high as 52 TRILLION to clean up the banking system. Do you realize that if everyone were to demand their money back from the banks they'd probably be over 50% SHORT. I mean, who gave them permission to steal our money? That's why the government keeps doing these deals, they are worried that there will be runs on banks and everyone will realize that the banking system is ENTIRELY BUSTED OUT!

I've said it 50 times here, the government needs to NATIONALIZE the ENTIRE BANKING SYSTEM. It's the only way to clean the whole thing up and put people at ease. This notion that these banks will succeed and have ANY profits for MANY MANY years is preposterous! HELLO? HELLO? Is anyone home? I said C was dead, I said BAC was dead. I'm telling you WFC, JPM, HBC, MS, and many many others are DEAD. ANY rally in that sector is a free money short once the buying stops. It's all BS short covering, no one in their right mind would buy these things.

BUT, chances are the government will do something IDIOTIC to prop them up and lull unsuspecting investors back into the sector only to watch them get CRUSHED again. And, that's what's wrong with what they are doing from a market perspective. All the government is doing is creating MAXIMUM loss for investors and shareholders. This is what happens when you try to control and manipulate markets, you can't possibly make it work, so eventually they fail anyway. That's reality, and that's all I can stomach these days. Hopefully you are all heeding that advice as well. Let the fools chase this market, yeah, we'll get big pops, in the last bear market 2000 to 2003 there were 4 rallies of 15% or more and each one went to a lower low. You can't pick bottoms, no one can (well, I have! hehe, but most can't!).

I keep getting asked for my ideas, I've stated them clearly several times. The stock market should be allowed to fail. It's going to happen no matter what, just go on TV (Obama) and say that unfortunately these companies are worthless and there's nothing we can do to save shareholders, so the stock market is going to fall dramatically, but when its done we really will be at a bottom.

So, what would happen? Well, the DOW would be about 3500 to 4000 and it would be done with one fell swoop and people could then adjust. Yes, it sucks, but folks, its going to get there anyway, I'm sorry, no matter what they do all they will do is create an artificial bounce/bear market rally that will roll over to new lows no matter what. So, just let it happen naturally and people will adjust. By doing it this way it's just a slow death and slow deaths lead to longer depressions, not shorter ones.

Stop trying to pump things up, let them go to fair value, thats the best way to reach a place where we can rebuild. Until they stop intervening their is no bottom, and this will continue for MANY MANY YEARS more than likely.

OK, CNBC, I have to rant about two things. First off, these on air reporters need to all be replaced, well, maybe not all, but most of them. They are the John Sterlings of finance, they just root for the market to go up, that's not legit reporting. Further, they give TONS of misinformation. 2 weeks ago Charlie Gasperino was on air saying that there is no way C isn't worth more than the roughly $5 it traded at. How could he make such an ignorant statement? Well, the guy does it all the time, one ignorant statement after another. Many of them do. If I have to hear from Dennis one more time saying how cheap things are. Really? Cheap gets cheaper in bear markets. This is a basic tenet that Bulls refuse to understand, there is NO SUCH THING AS CHEAP! The same as in a Bull market, there is no such thing as expensive. The market isn't about P/E's its about HUMAN PSYCHOLOGY! Period, end of story! In a Bear market stocks can trade at 3 P/E's and below cash value. In a Bull market, stocks can trade at 150 X's earnings and 200 X's revenue. If you don't know that buying now is idiotic, I can't help you. If you think you can dollar cost average down and make money you are pathetic and ignorant. I would rather buy a stock for an investment when it busts to new highs then when it breaks to new lows. New highs means its in an uptrend, new lows means its toast and getting more and more burnt!

OK, #2 - How dare CNBC or anyone go after Steve Jobs for not revealing more about his health! How dare they. Let me tell you something, it is DISGUSTING how they have reported that story. There hasn't been one real mention of "it sucks the guy is dying" or "its a tragedy". No, why would they do that? They are too busy sayiing that a guy who has been revered as a CEO and trendsetter, having built AAPL from nothing to a huge powerhouse, has a fiduciary duty to tell everyone his every sickness moment. Screw these imbeciles. Seriously, the guy is DYING. HELLO! HELLO! Are you that inhuman and unfeeling that you think it appropriate to beat the crap out of a guy who you have been worshipping as a "Great American" for 15 years or whatever it is? The guy is DYING. Let me repeat that - Steve Jobs is DYING! That means he will leave a family behind, and he has a lot more serious things to contemplate then whether or not he should please you ridiculous peons who stab the guy in his head just to have something to talk about. Instead of doing that, why don't you go study journalism and come back in a few years. The best is that they are now fighting on air all the time, its hilarious. It's so dysfunctional its awesome!

Put me on that show for a day, trust me, I will turn EVERYTHING around, 100%. In a way they are a microcosm of what's going on in our government, the blind leading the blind.

OK, there ya have it, I've been watching the plane in the Hudson river for two days, THAT is a real human story. 155 people could have easily been killed. The market will do what it does, but people's lives are at stake every day, and that's much more important then whether the DOW goes to 2000 or 20,000, isn't it? It's nice to be reminded of that once in a while, instead of hearing about all the horrible things in life.

We'll see what happens post Obama's inaugeration, we didn't get a rally into it as we and many others thought we might, but eh, maybe we'll rally post his inaugeration then! I doubt we go very far to the upside, the risk/reward still favors the downside. Until further notice any rally needs to be looked upon as a place to short. I am sure the government will do other things to intervene and prop things up, so stay tuned!

Have a great weekend, glad we're all alive!



Wednesday, January 14, 2009

I'm going to name my 3rd child - TARPY!

Why not? That's about the only thing the stupid thing might be good for! What a gigantic mess these dolts have created! Are you kidding me? As bad as the market is, it should be a LOT worse, but I'm not in the camp that that is some bullish sign. I'm in the camp that people remain in denial that probably 10 to 20% of all companies listed public are effective bankrupt, and like 80% of all financial stocks are belly up, only being kept alive by TARPY the Fed idiot.

I kinda like that, TARPY the Fed idiot, its kinda like a comic book. Can someone write it for us? :)

Unreal. Today after the close BAC announced they need BILLIONS more of our money because they took on the MER merger. Who knew that was a bogus deal manipulated by the Fed? This is DISGUSTING. I'm sorry, but this isn't capitalism, we now officially live in a dictatorship. The United States of Paulson and Bernanke. All hail, hear ye, hear ye! INSANITY. It's like a surreal bad dream, like walking through a Kafka novel on 2 hits of mesculan, or smoking major ganja bong hits!

Are you freakin' kidding me? I repeat, this will go down as the BIGGEST FRAUD, the BIGGEST SCAM, the BIGGEST LIE in the history of civilization. How dare they treat citizens as though they are nothing but sheeple. How dare they. Who annointed them King, Pope and Ruler of the world? ARE YOU FREAKIN' KIDDING ME?

The banking sector is TOAST. ANYONE buying a single share of those stocks is a SUCKER unless its for a quick trade. These stocks are all WORTHLESS! Hello! Hello! What about negative $300 BIL net assets doesn't the idiot financial advisors understand? The best is when they come on CNBC lately and say that the BANKS will lead us higher!



What more can I say? Did I tell you it makes me ill? OK, yeah, I did, huh? Hehe.

OK, so today I was the dummy, I thought we would get a squeeze after lunch and I went long and I lost money today, so my streak ends at 8 to start the year. 8 out of 9 ain't bad, I'll take it. I think I'm up about 50% on the year even with today, so tough to complain! Ka-chingo!

Tomorrow is a key day. We are either going to get a reversal here or I'll see ya at new lows below 7500 very soon. We need to reverse, and we should, but it'll just set up another shorting opportunity shortly. Obviously we have to favor the downside on any bounce. Here I would watch for a reversal but be careful and trade smaller until we get some clarity, these choppy days are very tough and can make your broker a lot of money shaking you out of a ton of stuff.

Need to mention that Steve Jobs finally admitted he's in trouble health wise. My heart goes out to him and his family and I pray for him to have a speedy recover. The stock price is really insignificant in the grand scheme of things. The stock has been predicting this as it kept going down lower and lower, so this wasn't said to any investors, but some people knew. Now we'll see if it fades the gap down and rallies to green. Watch that as a good indication of the way things will go Thursday.

Also, GOOG announced that like I've been saying, things are really messed up. GOOG sees below $100 by year end, you heard it here first. ANyone buying these stocks for more than a trade are incredible foolish in my opinion.

The market is going down, whether thats now, or 6 months, its going down. Yesterday Suze Ormon was on CNBC saying that in 10 years the market will be higher "I don't care what anyone says". Sorry, Suze, you should care what I say, cause I ain't ever wrong when it comes to these things, honey and in 10 years the DOW has no shot to be higher than where it is now. Buy and hold and dollar cost average (which doesn't work, fyi, studies have shown) will only net you brokesville!

See ya on the other side,


Michael "Waxie" Parness

Tuesday, January 13, 2009


Yuk! What a trashcan trading day today! Still made Ka-chingos (8 trading days in January, 8 days of gains!), and am off to best start of a year in a very long time, perhaps ever.

I'm going to post a testimonial I got today for a couple reasons. #1 its good marketing, and #2 it makes me grateful to be gifted the way I am so that we're able to help people the world over! We have clients virtually everywhere!

Classification: UNCLASSIFIED
Caveats: NONE

Still in Afghanistan and made out with your JE list (pulled everything
off Wednesday).....yesterday's POW with SRS made me very happy as I took
half off at rock!!


How cool is that? We have members from around the world, and it's just beyond cool that we can serve the world over!

This market is tough, but being patient pays off. I'm cutting down on share size and tightening open my stops, one has to adjust to the market!

Don't try to force your trades, that's the surest way to chop your account up in pieces. Trust me, I know, I've done it a few too many times myself! Choppy sloppy days are the toughest to trade, bar none, but a trend day will follow soon enough that makes your patience pay off!

There's money to be made here, a lot of it. I don't have much to say here other than to protect your capital above all else.

Tomorrow we should get a move. My guess is up, and it is a guess! I'm not making a strong call here just yet either way. So, we'll see what shakes.

Once again today we heard from Bernanke and once again the Fed is about to do another destructive thing, and that is they will probably now follow through on the TARP program and take over worthless assets. It is very hard to sit at home and watch the Fed destroy any chance we have to get out of this in a reasonable manner. They are, in my opinion, 100% ensuring that we enter a DEPRESSION, and are extending what is already going to be a long process. The only reason to do that is to artificially create the ILLUSION that the banks have any worth, which they currently don't. Basically, they are doing everything that hasn't worked ever in history under the guise that it makes sense. Bernanke and Paulson are like the Keystone Fed, or better yet it's like the Benny Hill show, with Bernanke being Benny Hill and Paulson being the little old bald guy that Benny hits on the head after chasing him around for the whole show.

Gawd it is so sickening. Everything is meant to manipulate share prices. We are a free market society, if you take that away you have nothing but smoke and mirrors and shareholders will get a pump up that will last for a very short period of time before ultimately rolling back over to way way WAY lower levels. And, it takes away more and more money out of taxpayer pockets and gives it where it doesn't belong, where it's just going to be gobbled up.

It should be clear by now that nothing the Fed has done has had any real or lasting impact on this system wide crisis. Unfortunately that is likely to continue and everything they have done, I would argue, has done a lot more harm then good.

The stock market is toast. It'll bounce shortly, but once that news is gone it'll just provide us with even better market opps!

In the meantime, let's play it close and a day at a time!


See ya on the other side!


Sunday, January 11, 2009

LOGIC DICTATES, TRENDS RULE...Deflation is very very bad...

Well, obviously we NAILED Friday. We called GOOG, AAPL short, SRS and SKF long right at the open Friday on my assumption that too many people front ran the #s thinking we would rally on the news. It's pretty uncanny, and again I knock knock knock on market's gate, but this has been an incredibly easy market to call. One of the best I've ever experienced. I'm now 6 for 6 on the year, my best start to a year in a long time (I don't track stats like that, but I'm sure it is pretty good). There's usually one or two early year days which buck all logic and odds. So far, so good. Don't worry, I'll tell ya when I lose, hopefully it won't be Monday, hehe! I went home net short, so you'll know if you see the market rallying hard early that I'm digging myself out of a hole! Not a big one, but I'll be down early at least if thats the case.

If we do rally here it'll just be smoke and mirrors into OBama's inaugeration. I have thought up til now that that would happen, and it may, but so many others keep saying the same thing that that got me leery. I don't like to be saying things I hear others say, it makes me feel claustrophobic!

I also think given the market action here that we're going to have a hard time going very far to the upside no matter what for the time being. This notion of a second half recovery in the economy is possibly the biggest lie and dumbest tale ever told. You may recall, they said the same thing last year and of course it was dumb then. Nothing has changed, in fact they've gotten worse. Friday's job #s came in smaller then feared, but the prior month's #s were adjusted DOWN 150,000 so no one believes these #s anyway, they are just so off its ridiculous to even announce them. What's the point? Off 30 to 40% isn't exactly a good guage, is it?

The key # was % and that's now at 16 year highs, most troubling.

We are in very bad shape. I'm worried, so should you all be. Though spiritually worry is a waste of time, so I take that back! I mean, we should be concious of what's going on. There are just way too many mistakes being made throughout the political system, from top to bottom and it seems like it's inevitable they will blow the whole dang thing system wide up. True shame. Hope I'm being a worry wart fo sure!

Deflation is a very very very dangerous thing. It's like that virus that made headlines a few years ago that ate away at all the victim's flesh, it just fed on itself until there was nothing left but the inards! Not nice, that scares the hell out of me, I'm not good at things that eat me like sharks, alligators or flesh eating viruses!!! Nooooo!

Well, that's what deflation is and why it's so dangerous. Here's the very simple of it;

Too much debt, people default, have less to spend

Less to spend means business slows

Business slows, layoffs and salary contraction

Layoffs and salary contraction means people have less to spend, and put more of a burden on the government to take care of the public

Less to spend means people start hoarding cash, fearing things are going to get worse

Hoarding cash means less spending, means business struggles, means layoffs, means more pressure on the government

The cycle can literally eat away centuries worth of business and create what we are now in, or a lot worse if it's not abated.

The government is trying to free up credit markets by pumping liquidity into it, however I think that's the wrong move. You can not make people borrow money unless they think that there's something worth buying with it! And, if you give the money away then it just devalues the currency, and you still have the same issues!

That's why I am so discouraged that they chose to bail out the automakers. Obama wants to do his version of the New Deal. OK, I don't agree with that tact, but fine, let's give it the benefit of the doubt. The problem is, if you are making things that no one wants it just builds up the same bubble that created this mess! You are perpetrating the same insanity! All the automakers should SHUT DOWN for 6 months or as long as it takes to clear out excess inventory. If that means that they shut down forever, so be it.

Oh, you, say "that's crazy! You can't do that, you're insane! You're an idiot!"

Maybe, I am all of the above and more, but take out your own biases and your own brain washedness (yes, I know its not a word) and think about it logically.

If OBama can create anywhere near the 4.1 MIL jobs he is now projecting he can with his plan, then why not give 600,000 of those jobs to the people who would lose their jobs if the automakers went on sabatical? He was only projecting 3.0 MIL last week, so he's till net 500,000 over that by doing this. Then those workers can make money, even if its slightly less then they make now (I'd rather overpay them (relatively speaking) to make things that are needed rather than make more unsellable cars!) by being productive in ways that actually BREAK us from the vicious cycle we are now stuck in.

There are MILLIONS of new cars that can't be sold. MILLIONS AND MILLIONS sitting on lots around the country. Why in the world would you bail out an industry that isn't an industry anymore? Industry infers that you're building something that helps growth. It's not an industry anymore, its antiquated and it's bankrupt. There's nothing wrong with that, look at the newspaper business, or TV or other media. When something newer and more innovative or popular sprouts up, then it means that there is a game changer. It means that some of those people who worked for the Times or on TV end up filtering down to work for Google. It means that some MSFT people go work for AAPL. It means that we, as a society, advances. THAT is capitalism, and that, my friends, is CIVILIZATION. By the government making these POLITICALLY motivated interventions they are not helping anything but the lobbyists. That is not how you dig yourself out of an economic mess. Think about what would have happened if the government bailed out the NY Times and Newsweek and other media companies and it stilted other technology, like the internet. Further, how does it make sense to reward companies that lobbied for years to not have to advance? These companies never wanted to build energy efficent cars, they paid BILLIONS to lobbyists to kill efforts to advance.

It doesn't matter whether I'm right or wrong, it's not going to happen no matter what, there's just too much lobbying power and the public isn't willing to take the government to task, at least not yet.

I am very disappointed in Obama's picks for his economic team, its same old same old, as I've stated here before. Unfortunately, and I do think the dude (yes, even the President is a dude to me!) means well and has some good ideas, but unfortunately he will be a 1 term president. It's highly unlikely we'll be out of this mess in 4 years based on the road we are going down, and thus unlikely that a sitting president will be reelected when the economy is still in shambles, or gets much worse, over 4 years. It's not his fault, and won't be for the most part, but people want things to get better, that's why the Republican's had no shot this election once things fell apart this year. You can mess with a lot of things we American's have, but you can't mess with our money! So, while its a tad early to make election predictions 4 years hence, and I do really REALLY hope I'm wrong if for no other reason then if he does get reelected its almost surely because things HAVE gotten better, I am just telling ya as I fear it!

Speaking of the American way, there's a scene in a movie I saw last night that was very funny and poked fun at us and the Brits. Was quite funny and was in quite a great film. I saw Slumdog Millionaire last night, what a wonderful and wonderfully hopeful and life affirming film. It reminds me why I love movie making so much! Go see it if you have the chance. I know a lot of you wouldn't have it on your radar and it may not even be playing in certain parts of the country, but it's really a great film. Highly recommended!

It's hard these days to write about the market and the economy. No one wants me to be wrong then me, trust me. It's just my job to inform you as best I can based on the knowledge I have (or don't have). Reality ultimately give you the best chance to excel. If I'm wrong I fully trust I'll be happy and making even more money. If I'm right then we protect ourselves as best we can and excel despite the issues. It is, however, very frustrating that we've gotten so complacent and so "bought out" over the years in our government that they don't know how to make good policy anymore it seems. Everyone is so worried about their jobs that they are all paniced. I can't help but to remember all the congressmen and women saying that when they sat down with Bernanke and Paulson and were told the perils of not bailing things out that they were aghast.

Instead of being aghast, perhaps they should have sought another opinion or two, instead of selling the country down the river based on two people who clearly have conflicts of interest and who clearly will go down as inept at best, and at least one of them potentially goes down as one of the biggest frauds in the history of this country. Nice $700 BIL bailout, it really helped. If I hear one more time how the credit markets are freeing up, hehe. Who wants to borrow money now? NOt me, baby, not me!

'Nuff said, I'm trying to find some good trading ideas for clients today and going to see another movie tonight. I love this time of year for movies, there are so many bad ones made that get released after the Academy Awards, this is usually the time when the best of the year are in theaters. If only the markets and the economy were a movie, I might be more hopeful of a happy ending!


See ya on the other side,

Michael "Waxie" Parness

Thursday, January 08, 2009


So, Friday is gonna be VERY interesting. Expect strong move(s) all day and once they pick which way we go it should be a very strong move in that direction. Normally I would say that we should buy the news since we sold the rumor of horrid #s. And, that may prove to be the right move. There are, however, a couple reasons to be leery of that notion.

1)Everyone thinks this is a sure bet, so the contrarian in me says perhaps not
2)The #s may just come in so bad that we fall harder
3)Strong trend is that the January Effect ended officially for us Thursday at the close (how bout the list!!!!).
4)There's a LOT of complacency in this market

Normally I would have a strong call, but there are just too many competing data points. I have a feeling the #s might be sooooo bad that the market has to fall, at least initially. Anything less than 650,000 they will probably buy initially, but if its the 750,000 plus I think it should be, I think we fall pretty hard off the bat.

I have to say, we are KILLING this market, I'm now 5 for 5, knock on wood. I won't say imagine if I go 200 for 200 cause I'm afraid I may jinx myself, but imagine it anyway! This market is just giving us so many nice trading opps here, our job is to just take the candy when the candy is passed! I'm enjoying trading stocks and options and my futures account is doing particularly well % wise. I think its up about 50% in 5 days, thats not too shabby if my math is right!

I have to say, and this isn't my job, but jeez, I just can not see us going very far to the upside after the next up push, assuming there is one! Priced in? It's all priced in? Yeah, ok, good luck buying this market!

There is such tremendous upside to the downside its uncanny. I keep hoping we will break out to 10,000 on the DOW so I can short the heck out of it and see what shakes out. The next down move should be one of the worst yet unfortunately. I hope I'm wrong! It's interesting here, this market. I shorted the ES (S & P) upon the open around 908.50 and I'm up about $3 here. Some trades are just too tempted, everyone was very bold buying into the close Thursday thinking we will definately go up when #s come, and we might, but it ain't a lock and someone holding either way into the #s is nuts if you ask me. Its a pure guess and gamble. Not a good idea in my experience.

The day should start out with fireworks, and then we'll see from there. Again, so many are expecting this move up that it feeds on itself. We may very well tank, but its possible the buyers are already involved in this move. Look at GOOG today, and a lot others. Peole
OK, I am falling asleep, ttyl!!!


Michael Waxie

Wednesday, January 07, 2009

Nice timing, job #s upcoming...

Well, guess I'm pretty good at this, sweet. I stated that we wanted to take off the January Effect stocks a day or two early because of the pending employment #s Friday. Those #s are going to be soooooo dreadful that I'm not so sure the market has "priced it in" which is the dumbest notion I keep hearing. The market has risen because of TRENDS, and that's it. Not because its priced in anything. Be serious, how can the market price in the financial sectors armegeddon? How can it price in the worst economy since the "Great" Depression. (why is it called GREAT anyway?!).

OK, as I write this I'm watching Maddening Lose-your-money. Does anyone find this guy amusing? You know today they had this woman on CNBC who was great, talking about the way people smirk and can't be trusted. It shows they are so smug and think they are better than everyone else. Take a look at booyahhead every night, the guy is smugger than Madoff. I really can't stand watching it, its the most annoying/cloying show ever put on air.

Things are a mess, folks. This market is now being held up with smoke and mirrors and a lot of HOPE. And, as you know, HOPE is a four letter word to me when it comes to the market. Today was the first time we actually sold into Obama appearing on air. Not a good sign, perhaps the fantasy that he will save the markets is starting to wear thin as reality begins to take shape. Trouble is where to pick a spot to start looking to short. I'm liking SRS and SKF here around these levels long. The REIT's are in a TON of trouble, some will definately go under. Mall owners like SPG are in very bad shape I believe. BUT, timing is everything. So, we're holding steady. You should now be out of all January Effect stocks officially. The list kickd total butt! Our lists are killin' it! I'll be giving a new SHORT list in the next couple of weeks cause I think we can start to poke some of them shortly.

Thursday I would expect us to not hold any gains into the #s. I guess its possible, but I wouldn't count on it without any other news. #s could be something like 1 MILLION, which would be well above consensus and the market would probably sell that # heavily. Also, remember that the TREND favors the downside here now. Market usually sells off after January Effect with our timing models wears off. Here we are. Best case scenario would be for us to sell into Friday and then get a bounce, or sell through next Wed or Thur and then start legging up into OBama.

In China there's a lot of civil unrest either happening or about to happen according to reports, let's hope we can turn things around sooner rathr than later so we can avoid these unpleasantries. People are scared, I have my own fears. Anyone with a family has cause to worry, these are hard times. Hoepfully we can continue to generate our own income so we don't have to rely on anyone else to take care of us. I'm not that kind of guy, I like to take care of myself. You? You ready o RULE?

I am, knock on wood, 4 for 4 to ring in the New Year! Today was tough, but I eckd it out! Let's see if we can get 5 in a row, baby! Gotta believe!

Keep the faith everyone, let's ROCK!

See ya on the other side,

Michael "Waxie" Parness

Tuesday, January 06, 2009

pthegreat said...
Hi Waxie, just a quick thank you note, and a Happy NY to you, your family, and the TF crew. I started actively trading using your service, in the 2nd half of 08, with just $5K. I just ran a profit/loss report today and guess what?; $51,714.87 in the green! It has helped me to overcome some personal problems, and I am just estatic to start the new year. so keep up the fabulous work, it's been appreciated very much.

There ya go, thanks Peter for your great success! We are ROCKIN'! It's time for YOU to start rockin', too!

Todays choppy action just further drove home the fact this is indeed a January Effect rally as the stocks on our radar and the laggards all jumped sharply, but the overall market had a lackluster performance.

Technically. For us, january effect lasts through thursday but again its somewhat nullified as the employment #s are due friday and my thought is they will sell us into that. Let's look toward some more choppiness tomorrow. Seems unlikely we get huge moves either way, but shorts are definately and foolishly taking a beating, another leg up and we may just get to that 10,000 level yet! Short squeezes are very intense and tend to feed off each tick higher. Stay the course...

I got a comment here today asking about GS. Apparently they are short GS. Why, I have no idea, guess they didn't read the blog or the many emails stating I am not short any of the short list stocks at the moment. I'm always frustrated when people only see and hear what they want. But, all we can do is lead the horse to water, we can't make them cover the short!

I had a couple of other thoughts (it happens once in a while).
Why did the judge set only a 10 mil bond for bernie madoff? The guy admitted he ripped off 50 bil, so basically the judge let the guy bail himself out using stolen money, so he could then rip them off more by selling jewelry that was bought with stolen money! I don't get it at all sometimes.

I've never actually met the family, but my heart goes out to the Travolta's, there is no bigger fear for any parent I know than to outlive their children. Money and fame are always rendered meaningless when you deal with some tragedies. And, who cares if he is a Scientologist? Does it really matter? People love to judge everyone else, remember, when you point one finger, three point back at ya!

Man, tell ya, today was tough for me, I have this killer pinched nerve in my freakin' neck and I had to get this big butt needle in my neck. I love it when the doctor says that it'll only be a "pinch". That's the code word for "IT WILL MAKE A GROWN MAN CRY!" And, thats what I did, I'm not too proud to say that. Wasn't one of those cry like a baby man cries, but tears did flow! You see, Waxie is human after all! Hehe.

Oouch, still killing me. Oh, well, new day today, and hopefully better. At least, knock on wood, have started the year with a bang, 3 for 3 winning days! And, that was with having to spend the day getting PINCHED!

Be careful not to chop your accounts up, folks. When you get the chop slop its often the toughest to trade and a good way to make your broker happy, but make you very upset and a LOSER!

See ya on the other side,

Michael "Waxie" Parness

Monday, January 05, 2009

Choppy day...but we starting off the year very nice indeed!

Two days into 2009 from a trading perspective and two winning days! Knock on wood, 2009 should be a very nice year for us indeed!

My new book, RULE YOUR FREAKIN' RETIREMENT also got it's first review and it is VERY SWEET! I've posted it at the end of this for ya'll to read! Please order an advance copy if you can off Amazon, its for sale there and you lock in the great price! Sure to be a classic!

In the meantime the market was pretty choppy and sloppy today. The financials can't get out of their own way (rightfully so) and the market was pretty much down all day except for attempting a rally midday. In spite of that most if not all of the January Effects stocks ROCKED! That's when you know you are playing the market right, when the market is moving against your positions, but you still rock da house.

The power of the TREND. I did say that this years January Effect list would be one of the best EVER, and lo and behold the move we've gotten has been one of the best ever. You gotta believe!

In the meantime, Wednesday should be interesting. We lightened up a lot today on the list as the trend is winding down. Last thing I want to do is give back the huge gains we have, so we took a bunch off. We may get another push, I doubt we go down very far, but ya never know, we are overbought here and the banks and REITS look like hell, so maybe we get a washout a bit. Also, talk now is that the stimulus package Obama wants may not get passed til at least March. That could take some luster away. Add in fact that Friday we get employment #s and I think good shot we not going anywhere to the upside here. Still think we get pockets of strength, like we had today, with the small ones lagging and then catching up (like our ALD!).

This is such a great run, folks, its time for ya to join up and give it a shot. If not, suit yourself, we'll keep rocking anyway!

I'm beat, going to bed early tonight, below find the review. Enjoy!

Michael "Waxie" Parness

Rule Your Freakin’ Retirement: How to Retire Rich by Actively Managing Your Assets Michael Parness. St. Martin’s, $25.95 (272p) ISBN 978-0-312-37515-1

Parness (Rule the Freakin’ Markets) shows readers how to take control of retirement and the years leading up to it. Full of practical suggestions, this book highlights numerous aggressive but simple and safe strategies to actively manage retirement resources. The author focuses on the fundamentals so that readers will be able to understand mutual fund reports and stock charts and know how to digest the information they contain. He divides his advice into three sections: assessing one’s current financial situation, mastering the tools and making the most of assets. Each section includes charts and quizzes to help explain concepts and test understanding. Scattered throughout are “Waxie’s” tips: short, helpful nuggets that provide advice on a variety of topics. Parness also includes several profiles of individuals at various stages of life and financial responsibility and offers practical advice for approaching their retirement savings. A handy glossary section serves as a useful reference tool for the less initiated. Free of jargon and easy-to-understand, this book will be of interest to everyone hoping to regain control over their retirement future, especially with the current market volatility. (Mar.)

Sunday, January 04, 2009

Some general thoughts...

There is WAY too much complacency in this market for me to really feel we've remotely hit a "bottom". Even if I didn't feel the Fed had completely messed up an opportunity to actually solve some issues there's just too much arrogance amongst the investment community to not feel that the worst is yet to come. Having said that, I stick to my plan here, which is to trade this market with a longside bias through Obama's inaugeration. There is this general euphoria that the guy elicits. Hey, I'm a supporter, anything in my view is better than what we've had for 8 years in this country. Whether you are liberal or conservative it's hard to imagine pointing to the last 8 years and saying "well, that was awesome, we've come a long way and so many positives have happened to the country!" Let's be real, politics aside, this country needs some changes and I'm all for trying something new. My issue is here early on, and I've said it here before, that some of the choices Mr.Obama has made so far are a sad endorsement of the last 8 years failed policies. It is mind boggling to me that he has picked relatively no new blood, and no outside the box thinkers to help promote a new economic agenda. We are stuck with the same sad sack sorry SOB's who have helped get us to this miserable pathetic point economically. Why he would do that is beyond me. When the new Fed chief can say with confidence that Hank Paulson is a good buddy, "Houston, we have a problem!". There should be a policy that NO ONE from Goldman Sachs (Goldman SUCKS) should be hired to any cabinet or offical government job. In my opinion, Hank Paulson is the most evil man in America at the moment. Did you hear that Indy Mac lost the government (hence you and I) over $1.5 BIL on the sale? Nice return on investment! Where are the profits from AIG, BSC, or anything else the government and Paulson (gives a bad name to us bald guys!) promised and promoted? It would be great in 2009if nothing else there was transparency in government. Just tell the freakin' truth! Americans would like to know the truth. We can live with bad news, but we can't live with being lied to. Chances of AIG or any of these bank deals making money as so remote its outrageous. Just admit it and lets move on to a new chapter!

Friday's 1st day of January trading went as expected, with a positive bias. I think through Thursday of this week we have to look at small cap laggards to potentially play catchup. Do I expect the market to just zoom straight up? No, highly unlikely, but I don't see it tanking here without bad news either, so I think we have to lean long for now and buy the dips this week. After that we'll evaluate where we stand. A lot of the small cap stuff is down 70 to 95%, a lot more than the overall market and thats why I thought (rightfully so) that this years January Effects list would be one of the best ever, which has proved to be dead on. A lot of the stuff is still down huge, so there may be some more upside. Let's see what pans out. I hope most of you played the January Effects list, its totally kicking butt. And, knock on wood, my acct started 2009 like it ended 2008, which for me was my best year trading my own money in about 7 years. If I do 1/2 as good in 2009 I'll be ecstatic! in 2009 has some very exciting new initiatives, I suggest you all check them out as they go "online". We'll soon be offering a new software package, and we'll be offering FOREX (yes, finally!) very soon. We'll also be offering some sort of managed money account, so stay tuned!

Happy and healthy New Year to you all, please stay safe, maintain your integrity and take deep breaths when things get a little hairy. 2009 should be an interesting, and at times trying year for us all, but we can and will get through it!

Peace and prosperity,

See ya on the other side,


Michael "Waxie" Parness

A NEW YEAR, A NEW BEGINNING...some thoughts...


Does anybody hear thy pain? The year they call 2008 and the upcoming year, 2009...


I've been trading and calling the market successfully at for over 10 years now. Over those ten years I've seen a lot in terms of the market, the world and myself personally. I've been through now 2 real Bear markets, 2 real Bull markets and a lot of choppy markets in between. We've been through several bubbles, most notably the internet bubble and the credit/housing bubble we're currently experiencing. I've seen 2 wars start, neither of which is really over, and I've seen the deadliest terrorist attack on American soil in our history with 9/11.

I've seen the DOW reach record highs over 12,000 in 1999 and the Nasdaq over 5000, and I've seen the markets lose 60+% of its value high to low once, and working on it twice. I've seen a 2008 that found us having the worst year in the history of the stock market, one which produced tremendous trading opportunities, but one which wiped out many a seasoned trading vet. I've seen 1500+ range days, and I've seen BSC, LEH and FRE and FNM either go belly up, or basically go belly up.

We've seen TRILLIONS in bailouts, and watched our country go from a free market/capitalistic society, to what amounts as a socialist nation on many levels. We've seen oil hit about $150 a barrel and then go under $40, victims of another bubble - the commodity bubble.

We've witnessed the first black President being voted in, and we've seen the largest Ponzi scheme in history go down the tubes, and many formerly rich folks become suddenly not so rich and even poor, with it in the Madoff affair.

There's a lot more, but you get my drift. For me personally, over this time span, I''ve been through a ton, as I know many of you have. I've made millions, had now 3 books published (my new one is available at under RULE YOUR FREAKIN' RETIREMENT now!) I've made my first feature film, CRAZY FOR LOVE (available at Blockbuster), and I've produced several others. I've had 2 beautiful girls, and I've been through the mother of all custody battles.

In 2001 I almost died on a gurney, after I had gone from homeless to riches, from zero to hero, the victim of some unknown ailment. I even flatlined and, yeah, I even saw the "white light". It's not something I'd like to experience again anytime soon, fyi.

On a positive note, I had my life story optioned by Dustin Hoffman, met Adam Sandler, made 3 infomercials, been featured in the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, NY Post, Kiplingers, Crain's Business, and the Financial Times. I've been on CNBC, CNN FN, FOX News, Good Day, NY, Reuters, Bloomberg, and others all around.

In 2008 I had my best trading year since 2000. We've made some very real and very serious calls. I called Gold to $500+ when it was $275, Oil to $100, then $150 when it was LOW $30s (and its' back down to $30s currently, talk about retracements! Wowsa!).

I called the market down in 2008 and so now let me talk about 2009...

2009 is highly unlikely to have an up year. There will be days/weeks/months of good tidings/rallies potentially, but I think more than likely we at least touch 4500 on the DOW in 2009.

Further, I think the Euro is going to be strained by some countries that are stronger then the other. Our dollar is in a heep of trouble after the beginning of the year as we all realize that it don't matter either way and money is diluted.

I also think that there will be a depression in the world, if it hasn't already strarted. I hate making these predictions, cause I hope I am WAY wrong and we go back to prosperity, I just can't really see it. Obama will do a good job managing everything, but eventually people will grow restless because its $s being essentially ripped from them by the government.

Oil will remain under pressure, at least for the 1st few months of 2009, and then get a big move up as inflation starts to kick in.

The government will keep throwing more and more money at the problem and at some point in 2009 they will have to NATIONALIZE the entire banking system as it collapses under its own weight. This is part of why the market sees under 5000 in 2009. There will be a lot of false rallies, and a lot of HOPE that will be disappointed.

How's that for happy? Sorry, I call it as I see it.

This is a tough world we live in, folks, I think a lot of people are trying to figure out how to be "heard" so that they have a voice that someone pays attention to. I know I feel that way often.

On the flip side, we'll all grow a lot, cause whatever don't kill ya, makes you stronger and there's gonna be a lot of pain to go around.

I'll preface it by saying again that this is one year's predictions I hope I am wrong about!

Remember to keep your INTEGRITY! Ultimately that's all we really have in my opinion. In tough times its important to maintain our composure so that we're part of the solution and not the problem. There are simply too many people who don't stop to think about consequences, we need to not be in that category.

Regardless of whether I'm right or wrong about my predictions, let's work together to RULE THE FREAKIN' MARKETS!

Happy New Year, I look forward to meeting and helping a lot of you in 2009 and beyond!


Michael "Waxie" Parness

P.S. I want to make one caveat to my DOW 4500 prediction. I think it'll get there unfortunately, however if the US is able to lower the value of our currency enough then it is possible that the markets will not travel so low. Why? Same as housing, the Fed is attempting to devalue the dollar and therefore TRY to stabilize housing markets. How does that work? Well, it's been tried, particularly in Japan in 1980 and several other times in history. The theory being that if you devalue currency let's say by 50%, then a $1,000,000 home is worth $500,000 but will still list for $1,000,000 based on 50% devaluation. The same could hold true for the markets, which at a 50% dollar devaluation would mean at my 4500 level the DOW would be trading at 9000 (4500 is 50% of 9000). THAT is the only caveat I'll give to my prediction, with the hope I am wrong. It's not in my, or anyone's best interest for the markets to fall so large, but I call it as I see it and this is how I see it. HOPE is a four letter word in the markets, folks, I suggest you stop hoping and start trading! The bigger problems will emerge if and when the markets get cracked even more, let's say to my 4500 level AND the dollar is devalued as well. So, at 4500 and a 50% dollar value, that's really 2250! We're in trouble, folks and its imperative you protect yourself and not get lazy and not get overly bullish OR bearish. This is a TRADING MARKET and THAT is where you can make your money! So, there ya have it, that's my only caveat. I think the FED has done an outrageously POOR job handling this. The illusion is that they are doing good and they are saving us. This is patently FALSE, that's the propaganda they want you to believe and its simply not true. I'm not a conspiracy guy, but I do think that people and governments try to cover their butts if necessary. 'Nuff said!