Saturday, January 31, 2009

Berkshire Hathaway will go BANKRUPT...

You read it here first.

This week I am shorting, for the first time, an $80,000s stock. There's only one of those I know of, Berkshire Hathaway.

I am predicting that within 18 months Berkshire Hathaway will be BANKRUPT.

Yes, I am serious.

I hope I'm wrong, but I call 'em as I see them and I see Warren Buffets bet on the market rising as proof of Freud's theory that sex and death are the two main motivating forces in most of our lives. There was, in my view, no reason for him to make that bet, he made his mark on humanity and his billions making bets on companies mainly, selling puts on the market as large as he did is playing Russian Roulette. Yes, he could have been right, he may still be since I could be wrong, but either way it was a very foolish gamble. And, I belive it's going to bust Berkshire Hathaway out. He's already down $14 BIL on the bet, when we hit below 5000, and with the insurance sector crumbling and about to get a whole lot worse more than likely, I think the company goes belly up.

I repeat, I hope and pray I am wrong, but I have to call them as I see them. I see Chapter 11, sadly. :(

I am working on a pretty large and comprehensive article for you all. I'm hoping it gets some traction, or at least some attention. We are in deep doody, folks and unless their is some IMMEDIATE restraint we are digging everyone's financial graves.

One thing before I sign off, one of the panic moves in crisis is to become self destructive (hence Freud). In NYC Mayor Bloomberg apparently is getting ready to lay off 1000 Police officers.

During times of financial crisis, which surely no soul on earth can argue we have right now, crime rates typically SOAR. It makes sense, people are more desperate and thus commit desperate acts unfortunately. During the depression crime was huge. In NYC there are banks being robbed all over the place for the first time in many decades (think Dillinger). There are reports of muggings in Greenwich village often, crime is going up.

Why in the world would you cut 1000 police now unless you were self destructing? That's the last thing you would do as a reaction to a financial crisis. Now is a time when you need to hire MORE police so the law abiding folk feel SAFER and protected, not lay off 1000 officers and thus weaken your safety!

The market is about to take a very bad turn for the even worse I'm afraid. I am reitering that if you own a SINGLE SHARE OF STOCK you are a SUCKER in my opinion.

Yes, a SUCKER. You want to know what the biggest Ponzi scheme on earth is? Bernie Madoff, right? WRONG!

It's the BANKS and MARKETS. They both meet all the criteria of Ponzi Schemes. There isn't remotely enough money to return to depositors on either front were everyone to demand their money back. It's been burned through and lost in the mess they have created, I believe.

I'm sure some of you may think I'm harsh at times. Perhaps, but I've been dead on on this market and economy and am proud that I have helped save a lot of people a LOT of money from the testimonials that keep pouring in every week.

I wish I was wrong, trust me (have I said that? :)), but I doubt I will be. If you own stock, in my opinion, you will lose a lot more. It's similar to the Superbowl for me, I would like the Cards to win, and they may cause I am not great at picking sports winners (that's why I trade! hehe), but I think the Steelers will kill them, so that's the way I have to call it. My heart would love for the markets to go UP, but this market feels so SOOOO heavy, I just don't think it can rise on anything more than news, it's proving that out, and if I'm right, which I hope I'm not again, the market is going to be so bloody and so bad that more and more cars are going to be driving through banks, as happened this week.

I hate being right as I've been. Maybe I'm wrong, I hope so, but as you know, HOPE is a four letter word when it comes to the market and I don't want anyone here to be foolish enough to live by hope, or financially die by it!

More later, keep your composure and your integrity. Money will come and go, but our "job" is to maintain our integrity.

Oh, one last thing, then more later. I got an email this week from someone who said that the only way they could be happy, or keep their integrity is if they had money.

THAT, my friends, is at the heart of the matter. That person would say "yes, but you (me) have money, so its easy for you to say to keep your integrity!"

That's WRONG. Integrity comes from a belief in yourself and humanity. There are people in the Congo who don't rape and pillage, and there are people who do. Money alone is not cause for joy and peace and integrity. If you believe that you need to find a new spiritual discipline. This crisis impacts us all, and if it gets worse unfortunately it will test our very cores and souls. It is imperative to remember that family, friends, life itself is much more important then how much money we have or don't have. I'm not the one to coin the adage "you can't take it with you". I talked about billionaires taking their lives, this week a guy killed himself and his family over money issues. These kinds of things historically happen during times of financial duress.

And, yeah, I do "know", remember, I've lived on the streets on a park bench. Life, at times, is not easy for any of us. We all struggle, whether you have $5 or $5 BILLION. I'd rather have $5 BILLION, but I would like to think that my happiness, or lack thereof, does not hinge on being wealthy. That would be very sad and I'd be disappointed in myself.

Peace by with all, and to all a good night!

RULE!

Waxie

6 comments:

Beanieville said...

How is it possible BRKA could be bankrupt in 18 months when the derivative contract is for 15 years?

Jeanne Mancuso said...

Waxie,

Aren't you just a ray of sunshine!! I'm curious as to what inspired this writing. Maybe Bloomberg is being fiscally responsible with the budget...you advocate that too.

I'm fully invested in beaten down stocks and selling calls on them. I give up on the market!!!!!!!!!!

Jeanne

In Debt We Trust said...

Waxie, You should also consider shorting European bonds and (eventually) US treasuries.

Interest rates will soar sooner or later.

That is what the Davos agenda is truly about:

www.debtsofanation.blogspot.com

PS - You should talk about shorting Treasuries the next time you appear on TV. That should really rile up the newscasters!

Ming said...

Waxie,

You mentioned that you are bullish on GOLD. Is it a good idea to hold gold mining company like ABX? Or better just hold GLD?

Today's super bowl game is so good. I wish everyone had a great time to watch it.

Thanks
Ming

beach2788 said...

Waxie- how are you so sure of Berkshire's exact options trading strategy?

How far out (months) did Berkshire sell the puts? Why can't they just cover the puts now to avoid losing more?

Also how do know it wasn't a spread, and Berkshire has been buying front month puts to offset?

popistoc said...

Waxie,

The Dow will see 12000 before it sees 5000. Berkshire will survive.

popistoc