There is WAY too much complacency in this market for me to really feel we've remotely hit a "bottom". Even if I didn't feel the Fed had completely messed up an opportunity to actually solve some issues there's just too much arrogance amongst the investment community to not feel that the worst is yet to come. Having said that, I stick to my plan here, which is to trade this market with a longside bias through Obama's inaugeration. There is this general euphoria that the guy elicits. Hey, I'm a supporter, anything in my view is better than what we've had for 8 years in this country. Whether you are liberal or conservative it's hard to imagine pointing to the last 8 years and saying "well, that was awesome, we've come a long way and so many positives have happened to the country!" Let's be real, politics aside, this country needs some changes and I'm all for trying something new. My issue is here early on, and I've said it here before, that some of the choices Mr.Obama has made so far are a sad endorsement of the last 8 years failed policies. It is mind boggling to me that he has picked relatively no new blood, and no outside the box thinkers to help promote a new economic agenda. We are stuck with the same sad sack sorry SOB's who have helped get us to this miserable pathetic point economically. Why he would do that is beyond me. When the new Fed chief can say with confidence that Hank Paulson is a good buddy, "Houston, we have a problem!". There should be a policy that NO ONE from Goldman Sachs (Goldman SUCKS) should be hired to any cabinet or offical government job. In my opinion, Hank Paulson is the most evil man in America at the moment. Did you hear that Indy Mac lost the government (hence you and I) over $1.5 BIL on the sale? Nice return on investment! Where are the profits from AIG, BSC, or anything else the government and Paulson (gives a bad name to us bald guys!) promised and promoted? It would be great in 2009if nothing else there was transparency in government. Just tell the freakin' truth! Americans would like to know the truth. We can live with bad news, but we can't live with being lied to. Chances of AIG or any of these bank deals making money as so remote its outrageous. Just admit it and lets move on to a new chapter!
Friday's 1st day of January trading went as expected, with a positive bias. I think through Thursday of this week we have to look at small cap laggards to potentially play catchup. Do I expect the market to just zoom straight up? No, highly unlikely, but I don't see it tanking here without bad news either, so I think we have to lean long for now and buy the dips this week. After that we'll evaluate where we stand. A lot of the small cap stuff is down 70 to 95%, a lot more than the overall market and thats why I thought (rightfully so) that this years January Effects list would be one of the best ever, which has proved to be dead on. A lot of the stuff is still down huge, so there may be some more upside. Let's see what pans out. I hope most of you played the January Effects list, its totally kicking butt. And, knock on wood, my acct started 2009 like it ended 2008, which for me was my best year trading my own money in about 7 years. If I do 1/2 as good in 2009 I'll be ecstatic!
Trendfund.com in 2009 has some very exciting new initiatives, I suggest you all check them out as they go "online". We'll soon be offering a new software package, and we'll be offering FOREX (yes, finally!) very soon. We'll also be offering some sort of managed money account, so stay tuned!
Happy and healthy New Year to you all, please stay safe, maintain your integrity and take deep breaths when things get a little hairy. 2009 should be an interesting, and at times trying year for us all, but we can and will get through it!
Peace and prosperity,
See ya on the other side,
Michael "Waxie" Parness