Sunday, January 04, 2009

Some general thoughts...

There is WAY too much complacency in this market for me to really feel we've remotely hit a "bottom". Even if I didn't feel the Fed had completely messed up an opportunity to actually solve some issues there's just too much arrogance amongst the investment community to not feel that the worst is yet to come. Having said that, I stick to my plan here, which is to trade this market with a longside bias through Obama's inaugeration. There is this general euphoria that the guy elicits. Hey, I'm a supporter, anything in my view is better than what we've had for 8 years in this country. Whether you are liberal or conservative it's hard to imagine pointing to the last 8 years and saying "well, that was awesome, we've come a long way and so many positives have happened to the country!" Let's be real, politics aside, this country needs some changes and I'm all for trying something new. My issue is here early on, and I've said it here before, that some of the choices Mr.Obama has made so far are a sad endorsement of the last 8 years failed policies. It is mind boggling to me that he has picked relatively no new blood, and no outside the box thinkers to help promote a new economic agenda. We are stuck with the same sad sack sorry SOB's who have helped get us to this miserable pathetic point economically. Why he would do that is beyond me. When the new Fed chief can say with confidence that Hank Paulson is a good buddy, "Houston, we have a problem!". There should be a policy that NO ONE from Goldman Sachs (Goldman SUCKS) should be hired to any cabinet or offical government job. In my opinion, Hank Paulson is the most evil man in America at the moment. Did you hear that Indy Mac lost the government (hence you and I) over $1.5 BIL on the sale? Nice return on investment! Where are the profits from AIG, BSC, or anything else the government and Paulson (gives a bad name to us bald guys!) promised and promoted? It would be great in 2009if nothing else there was transparency in government. Just tell the freakin' truth! Americans would like to know the truth. We can live with bad news, but we can't live with being lied to. Chances of AIG or any of these bank deals making money as so remote its outrageous. Just admit it and lets move on to a new chapter!

Friday's 1st day of January trading went as expected, with a positive bias. I think through Thursday of this week we have to look at small cap laggards to potentially play catchup. Do I expect the market to just zoom straight up? No, highly unlikely, but I don't see it tanking here without bad news either, so I think we have to lean long for now and buy the dips this week. After that we'll evaluate where we stand. A lot of the small cap stuff is down 70 to 95%, a lot more than the overall market and thats why I thought (rightfully so) that this years January Effects list would be one of the best ever, which has proved to be dead on. A lot of the stuff is still down huge, so there may be some more upside. Let's see what pans out. I hope most of you played the January Effects list, its totally kicking butt. And, knock on wood, my acct started 2009 like it ended 2008, which for me was my best year trading my own money in about 7 years. If I do 1/2 as good in 2009 I'll be ecstatic! in 2009 has some very exciting new initiatives, I suggest you all check them out as they go "online". We'll soon be offering a new software package, and we'll be offering FOREX (yes, finally!) very soon. We'll also be offering some sort of managed money account, so stay tuned!

Happy and healthy New Year to you all, please stay safe, maintain your integrity and take deep breaths when things get a little hairy. 2009 should be an interesting, and at times trying year for us all, but we can and will get through it!

Peace and prosperity,

See ya on the other side,


Michael "Waxie" Parness


Rich said...


The people of this country CAN live and HAVE lived with being lied to. We have for a long time. I personally am a social outcast with one true friend because I speak up, loudly and strongly, when I see lies and deceit. On many occasions the people I intended to help chose to see me as the bad guy and chose the path of those who were deceiving them. Even after reality hit them and they were left feeling the pain and the loss from their actions, I remained someone they wanted nothing to do with.

You yourself have commented on many occasions about the hate e-mail you get from people who don't like what you've expressed...even while you've been right all along and I believe that you'll continue to be proven right. Who wants to see it?

I'm sure you have heard of Occam's Razor, basically stating that "all other things being equal, the simplest solution is the best". Well, what is the simplest, most logical conclusion for why he picked the same old schmucks? I'll answer with one of my favorite sayings: "When you always do what you've always done you always get what you've always got." If there is change in the next for years it's likely to be something packaged for the people to look and sound good for them, like always, but will end up benefiting the same old shmucks.

It wasn't a week ago that Obama had a press conference where he was backtracking about his relationship with Reverend Wright. Before being elected he completely removed himself from having any association with the guy. Now that he's in we hear that the Reverend is a good personal friend blah, blah blah. I could care less about what the Reverend said, it's Obama's backtracking that had me saying, "Uh Oh, here we go".

We live in a country, and likely a world, where, best case, the blind are leading the blind and, worse case, the deceivers are leading the blind. The irony of it all is that the blind are choosing to be blind. At any time they can choose to lift their blinders and become aware of what is necessary to have true change and create an honest government.

It wont happen though as long as the majority of individuals and families remain unshaken. Things haven't gotten nearly bad enough yet for people to take some form of real action. The discomfort for them has to be worse than the alternative which is to get real and take action.

Just my opinion, of course, but you have no idea what I have gone through and how much time I have devoted to knowing what I'm talking about.

I'm a PITA to most people and I'm usually shunned when I express like this, but what does that tell you about people and the state of things. This country exists because there was a time when people like me were the majority and they gave a shit about things like honesty, equality, impeccability and responsibility over dollar signs and "bling".

Take care.


FACTOR R said...

Welcome back !!! yeah !!!

Anar said...

Any thoughts on Agriculture? As the dollar starts to fall those stocks seem to do well.

Bill said...

The problem is what happened in the past, two words come to mind, Robber Barron's, believe it or not, GREED, a one time, was a punishable crime.