Friday, January 16, 2009

Am I locked in a Kafka novel???

I swear to Gawd, I just can not believe what's going on in this country. I can't speak to what's going on around the world in relation to the economic meltdown, but what's going on here is pure, unadultered insanity!

How can this be happening? Every day they just do whatever they want with our money. What happened to the constitution? What happened to representation? Does anyone in our country approve of what's going on? Other than special interest groups, and politicians?

I've said consistently I had hoped I was wrong in my gloom and doom, but obviously I'm dead RIGHT! It sucks being me sometimes! Man o man, it's like watching some surreal Brunel film (one of my favorite surrealistic filmmakers). I shake my head in between trades wondering when someone is going to intervene and just say "enough is enough, we need to let it go...just let it go".

Look, the problem is so huge that there is simply no way they can keep doing these deals. We're talking TRILLIONS and TRILLIONS. I've heard as high as 52 TRILLION to clean up the banking system. Do you realize that if everyone were to demand their money back from the banks they'd probably be over 50% SHORT. I mean, who gave them permission to steal our money? That's why the government keeps doing these deals, they are worried that there will be runs on banks and everyone will realize that the banking system is ENTIRELY BUSTED OUT!

I've said it 50 times here, the government needs to NATIONALIZE the ENTIRE BANKING SYSTEM. It's the only way to clean the whole thing up and put people at ease. This notion that these banks will succeed and have ANY profits for MANY MANY years is preposterous! HELLO? HELLO? Is anyone home? I said C was dead, I said BAC was dead. I'm telling you WFC, JPM, HBC, MS, and many many others are DEAD. ANY rally in that sector is a free money short once the buying stops. It's all BS short covering, no one in their right mind would buy these things.

BUT, chances are the government will do something IDIOTIC to prop them up and lull unsuspecting investors back into the sector only to watch them get CRUSHED again. And, that's what's wrong with what they are doing from a market perspective. All the government is doing is creating MAXIMUM loss for investors and shareholders. This is what happens when you try to control and manipulate markets, you can't possibly make it work, so eventually they fail anyway. That's reality, and that's all I can stomach these days. Hopefully you are all heeding that advice as well. Let the fools chase this market, yeah, we'll get big pops, in the last bear market 2000 to 2003 there were 4 rallies of 15% or more and each one went to a lower low. You can't pick bottoms, no one can (well, I have! hehe, but most can't!).

I keep getting asked for my ideas, I've stated them clearly several times. The stock market should be allowed to fail. It's going to happen no matter what, just go on TV (Obama) and say that unfortunately these companies are worthless and there's nothing we can do to save shareholders, so the stock market is going to fall dramatically, but when its done we really will be at a bottom.

So, what would happen? Well, the DOW would be about 3500 to 4000 and it would be done with one fell swoop and people could then adjust. Yes, it sucks, but folks, its going to get there anyway, I'm sorry, no matter what they do all they will do is create an artificial bounce/bear market rally that will roll over to new lows no matter what. So, just let it happen naturally and people will adjust. By doing it this way it's just a slow death and slow deaths lead to longer depressions, not shorter ones.

Stop trying to pump things up, let them go to fair value, thats the best way to reach a place where we can rebuild. Until they stop intervening their is no bottom, and this will continue for MANY MANY YEARS more than likely.

OK, CNBC, I have to rant about two things. First off, these on air reporters need to all be replaced, well, maybe not all, but most of them. They are the John Sterlings of finance, they just root for the market to go up, that's not legit reporting. Further, they give TONS of misinformation. 2 weeks ago Charlie Gasperino was on air saying that there is no way C isn't worth more than the roughly $5 it traded at. How could he make such an ignorant statement? Well, the guy does it all the time, one ignorant statement after another. Many of them do. If I have to hear from Dennis one more time saying how cheap things are. Really? Cheap gets cheaper in bear markets. This is a basic tenet that Bulls refuse to understand, there is NO SUCH THING AS CHEAP! The same as in a Bull market, there is no such thing as expensive. The market isn't about P/E's its about HUMAN PSYCHOLOGY! Period, end of story! In a Bear market stocks can trade at 3 P/E's and below cash value. In a Bull market, stocks can trade at 150 X's earnings and 200 X's revenue. If you don't know that buying now is idiotic, I can't help you. If you think you can dollar cost average down and make money you are pathetic and ignorant. I would rather buy a stock for an investment when it busts to new highs then when it breaks to new lows. New highs means its in an uptrend, new lows means its toast and getting more and more burnt!

OK, #2 - How dare CNBC or anyone go after Steve Jobs for not revealing more about his health! How dare they. Let me tell you something, it is DISGUSTING how they have reported that story. There hasn't been one real mention of "it sucks the guy is dying" or "its a tragedy". No, why would they do that? They are too busy sayiing that a guy who has been revered as a CEO and trendsetter, having built AAPL from nothing to a huge powerhouse, has a fiduciary duty to tell everyone his every sickness moment. Screw these imbeciles. Seriously, the guy is DYING. HELLO! HELLO! Are you that inhuman and unfeeling that you think it appropriate to beat the crap out of a guy who you have been worshipping as a "Great American" for 15 years or whatever it is? The guy is DYING. Let me repeat that - Steve Jobs is DYING! That means he will leave a family behind, and he has a lot more serious things to contemplate then whether or not he should please you ridiculous peons who stab the guy in his head just to have something to talk about. Instead of doing that, why don't you go study journalism and come back in a few years. The best is that they are now fighting on air all the time, its hilarious. It's so dysfunctional its awesome!

Put me on that show for a day, trust me, I will turn EVERYTHING around, 100%. In a way they are a microcosm of what's going on in our government, the blind leading the blind.

OK, there ya have it, I've been watching the plane in the Hudson river for two days, THAT is a real human story. 155 people could have easily been killed. The market will do what it does, but people's lives are at stake every day, and that's much more important then whether the DOW goes to 2000 or 20,000, isn't it? It's nice to be reminded of that once in a while, instead of hearing about all the horrible things in life.

We'll see what happens post Obama's inaugeration, we didn't get a rally into it as we and many others thought we might, but eh, maybe we'll rally post his inaugeration then! I doubt we go very far to the upside, the risk/reward still favors the downside. Until further notice any rally needs to be looked upon as a place to short. I am sure the government will do other things to intervene and prop things up, so stay tuned!

Have a great weekend, glad we're all alive!

Rule!

Waxie

6 comments:

In Debt We Trust said...

Waxie - been reading your blog for a while and while not a customer find it good reading. Keep up the good work.

As for your take on the DJIA - pull up a chart of the Karachi Stock Exchange (Pakistan) and you will see where the US is eventually headed.

Govt manipulations like price floors, short bans, opaque accounting rules, etc. will just cause an exodus of money OUT of the country sooner or later.

Bernanke and Paulson are arrogant bums who think that the US will continue attracting foreign $ b/c we are "too big to fail." Yea right, tell that to the Chinese and Arabs who are starting to develop their own markets instead of lending money to insolvent Americans so we can buy more flat screen tvs on credit.

sayspine said...

You know Waxie, the destiny of the United States is being controlled by less than 550 people. The 435 in Congress, 100 in Senate and 9 Supreme Court justices and now Barack and Michelle....90% of which, are lawyers...

What ever happened to the term "public servant? In my opinion it's been replaced with, "self serving" at tax payers expense..

Time for the old lawyer jokes..

What do you call 450 lawyers at the bottom of the ocean......

Waxie said...

We are toast. People can stay in denial all they want, but we're toast, the longer and harder they try to prop up the stock market, the worse it'll get long term.

As far as attys, I rest my case, I like that! Hehe. These people are clueless, unfortunately no one fights them on any front. Its like we are lambs being led to our slaughter.

Keep the comments coming!

RULE!

stocksshah said...

If big banks like C can divide like Ameoba and handover the bad asset to US taxpayers then they will survive but will put the US taxpayers on risk of default. I am preparing to pay higher taxes if I am lucky to escape the current layoffs.

thomas said...

Waxie,

You're right about the Obama effect, just too early. We need to wait until he's in office and on his honeymoon for the market to respond. This isn't another buy/sell the news and unwind it on inauguration day. It's more like...buy the inauguration and sell when congress first gags on the rescue bill.

Ming said...

Waxie,

Is it a good idea to hold SKF in IRA account? The pricing of SKF seems odd. The bank index is at new low but SKF is at half price of its high of 300.

Thanks
Ming