Market jumped like wild fire today on the belief that the new plan of action is the same as the old plan of action! Oouch!
The government is basically saying they will pump as much money into the banks as is necessary. I'm not entirely sure what the point is, it hasn't worked one bit so far, why they feel it'll work now is beyond me. Frankly, its downright scary. For this citizen, my worst economic fears seem not so far away at this point. There is absolutely no way I can see it working. Now they are talking another 2 to 3 TRILLION! I mean, its really insane, but hey, what do I know, maybe they know what they are doing! Let us pray. Dear G*d, please please please let it work!
I think thats really our new policy, print money...and prayer!
Guitner should not be confirmed. It seems pretty clear the guy is a liar and lacks ethics to me. How could he not know to pay his taxes? This is the guy we want running a large part of our economic policy? Oy Vey. OY VEYYYYYYYYYYY!
Yes, and my dog ate my homework, my grandmother lost my homework, you won't get pregant if we do it standing up, and the check is in the mail!
I'm very impressed by Obama's actions so far. Some of it is for "show", but so what? When was the last time a president got his staff to take a pay freeze the 1st day on the job? And, when was the last time we had any real rules regarding lobbyists? So, while I definately question this "spend at all costs" strategy, and highly doubt it has any real shot of working long term, I do have to like the guys intentions. Thing is, I'm humble enough, I think, to know that I could be wrong. It's possible that these things will work. I sure do hope so. I just don't see how doing what's been done up til now to failed results and expecting it to work because we throw MORE money at the problem is a good idea. The only thing it may do, in my opinion, is do what it did today, which is falsely drive up the market.
Today I lost money. The action today took me by surprise. For the 1st time all year we didn't fade the gap for a while. Then we did and then we got this news about the "plan" and the market took off. I came into the day short so I started down and made a nice comeback but not enough to dig myself out of the ditch I started with.
I am not strong here. I made the mistake to force a couple of trades today, and when I do that I usually regret it for myself and for clients.
I think we could get a move higher from here into the "plan" on the hopes that they will completely bail out the banks, which they might. These are crazy times, the market isn't natural right now. I'm scaling back my trade lot size until I get more clarity. I've made a lot of money so far this year, my account is up about 50% overall so far. I'm very happy with that, the last thing I want to do is give it back with trades I am unsure of.
It's interesting to me, I get emails when I'm not making a ton of calls with people upset because they want more calls. Usually I call so much that some people say I call, well, too much! People have been racking up, but expectations are tough to live up to if you aren't realistic. Or, if you force trades.
Let's see what shakes here. If we run into the "plan" then chances are we'll sell it off and thats a much stronger trade then guessing here. I think we have to retest the 7500 level soon. That's why this is tough, I would be bullish here off today's move for at least a trade, but I think we have to retest those lows, so hence the not strong stance here.
Very choppy trading, folks, you have to be smart and nimble and not get attached to your positions too heavily if you are wrong. Yesterday we were down 300, today up 300. I mean, thats INSANE, but thats why this is a total trading market.
If I wasn't working, I'd take a couple days off to see what shakes here. Remember, part of being a sucessful trader is picking your spots. Don't trade just to trade, its a good way to lose your money fast. I went home pretty flat tonight, actually hedged, some long and some puts. Watch BIDU today, its been lagging and could get a very big squeeze into GOOG earnings if the market is strong.
See ya later, RULE!