Wednesday, January 07, 2009

Nice timing, job #s upcoming...

Well, guess I'm pretty good at this, sweet. I stated that we wanted to take off the January Effect stocks a day or two early because of the pending employment #s Friday. Those #s are going to be soooooo dreadful that I'm not so sure the market has "priced it in" which is the dumbest notion I keep hearing. The market has risen because of TRENDS, and that's it. Not because its priced in anything. Be serious, how can the market price in the financial sectors armegeddon? How can it price in the worst economy since the "Great" Depression. (why is it called GREAT anyway?!).

OK, as I write this I'm watching Maddening Lose-your-money. Does anyone find this guy amusing? You know today they had this woman on CNBC who was great, talking about the way people smirk and can't be trusted. It shows they are so smug and think they are better than everyone else. Take a look at booyahhead every night, the guy is smugger than Madoff. I really can't stand watching it, its the most annoying/cloying show ever put on air.

Things are a mess, folks. This market is now being held up with smoke and mirrors and a lot of HOPE. And, as you know, HOPE is a four letter word to me when it comes to the market. Today was the first time we actually sold into Obama appearing on air. Not a good sign, perhaps the fantasy that he will save the markets is starting to wear thin as reality begins to take shape. Trouble is where to pick a spot to start looking to short. I'm liking SRS and SKF here around these levels long. The REIT's are in a TON of trouble, some will definately go under. Mall owners like SPG are in very bad shape I believe. BUT, timing is everything. So, we're holding steady. You should now be out of all January Effect stocks officially. The list kickd total butt! Our lists are killin' it! I'll be giving a new SHORT list in the next couple of weeks cause I think we can start to poke some of them shortly.

Thursday I would expect us to not hold any gains into the #s. I guess its possible, but I wouldn't count on it without any other news. #s could be something like 1 MILLION, which would be well above consensus and the market would probably sell that # heavily. Also, remember that the TREND favors the downside here now. Market usually sells off after January Effect with our timing models wears off. Here we are. Best case scenario would be for us to sell into Friday and then get a bounce, or sell through next Wed or Thur and then start legging up into OBama.

In China there's a lot of civil unrest either happening or about to happen according to reports, let's hope we can turn things around sooner rathr than later so we can avoid these unpleasantries. People are scared, I have my own fears. Anyone with a family has cause to worry, these are hard times. Hoepfully we can continue to generate our own income so we don't have to rely on anyone else to take care of us. I'm not that kind of guy, I like to take care of myself. You? You ready o RULE?

I am, knock on wood, 4 for 4 to ring in the New Year! Today was tough, but I eckd it out! Let's see if we can get 5 in a row, baby! Gotta believe!

Keep the faith everyone, let's ROCK!

See ya on the other side,

Michael "Waxie" Parness

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