Tuesday, January 20, 2009


The DOW (and Nasdaq)had the worst inaugeration day drop EVER. My feelings have not changed a bit, the stock market is going to see under 5000 this year, and it may happen sooner rather than later. Anyone owning a single share of stock long is a fool in my opinion. There is still too much optimism in the face of reality for the market to truly bottom. While nothing goes up or down in a straight line, ultimately we have to go a LOT lower. Frankly, the sooner it happens the better for everyone, and perhaps the government will stop trying to interfere with te free market system at some point, perhaps now. Hopefully so. The last thing the market needs is another phoney bottom that can't possibly hold. The banking system should be nationalized, if that isn't clear by now then you aren't dealing with reality or a full deck. It's the only way out of this longer term and the longer its delayed and more money is thrown at a failed system, the worse the hole gets and the harder it is to dig us out of this. These companies are BANKRUPT. They are all (most) worth NOTHING. C, BAC, MS, HBC, JPM, WFC, they are all WORTHLESS. One of the worst lies has been this notion that the government should, or could bail out this system. It's unreal how there are still analysts saying to buy this sector! And, amazing that there are so-called analysts who say "it'll take $1 TRIL more to shore it up!" Dudes and dudesses, it'll take MANY MANY TRILLIONS, much more than the government can come up with without busting every single person in this country out completely. So, forger buying these stocks, keep owning SKF and just set a stop, it should be $500 at some point this year. We'll see, hopefully I am wrong about the market overall. I keep saying that, and I mean it. I think we could see as low as 2000s in the next 2 years, perhaps even LOWER. I think that people are out to lunch. Even now as I write this the futures are up decently. Why? Because there are just too many people trying to pick bottoms when there is no realistic way this could possibly be a true bottom. Why would anyone pick now to buy? To what, dollar cost average? That's ridiculous and that's not a tenable argument.

Right now you have a free money shot anytime we gap up. We haven't held a gap up in a very long time, and I doubt we will. Yeah, we'll get dumb government moves that will pop us and squeeze us, but they won't last, none have and none will. Markets do not stay up off government intervention, it doesn't work that way.

OK, so that's my near and long term take. I think we retest the November lows (so much for that idiotic "Hogan's bottom" which was ridiculous to begin with) and break them shortly. I think there's a better than average shot we go below 7000 even. What would prevent that would be government proping up the market artificially, but again, that won't last long. We are making lower highs and lower lows on the market and that is not a harbinger of good tidings! Folks, you have to go with the market until proven otherwise. When we squeeze we'll catch it, I am quite confident, the same way we caught the January Effect huge move and racked up!

OK, let me say a few words about the inaugeration and my perspective on things overall, for those that care to listen.

I was at the inaugeration today. I was given some tickets by a friend and I was in Washington at a movie premier of a film I produced, Gospel Hill. It was a wonderful event, the film is very timely and I think profound.

So, I went, and I must say, I'll probably never go to an inaugeration again, waiting in crowds like a sardine for 8 hours and then walking 8 miles in the freezing cold from Washington To Virginia afterwards isn't my idea of fun city. However, I will say it is pretty amazing meeting tons of people from around the world and it's the only event I've ever been to where EVERYONE was kind, compassionate, helpful and friendly and OPEN to everyone else. I mean, EVERYONE was brother and sister with everyone else. THAT was worth it all. Those of you who know my story, and some of my life, and have perhaps read me over the years know that I'm a big proponent of equality. Having lived on the streets and having a very rough childhood in a myriad of ways, you learn, if you are open to it, that we really are all in this thing called life together. I LOVED Obama's speech. I have to say that I was very moved by it, and I thought it was perhaps the best inaugeration speech I've ever heard. And, I hope its more than just words. The world is a very fragile place right now. There is no room for seperation, there must be cooperation. If there isn't then things start breaking down. We now are experiencing that in the marketplace, but that then distends to everything else. We can not be a prosperous nation, a healthy nation, without sharing with everyone else, particularly the poorest of nations. Put it this way, if you are filthy rich, but many around you are abusively poor then they will have no choice but to try to take some of your richness from you, if only to survive. So, regardless of what you feel, you are better off giving some of what you have so that you can safely keep most of what you have, and feel good about helping your fellows in the process. I think far too often we get caught in our own lives. I know I have at times. Having wealth and being unsafe are not a good combo. It's why I started Trendfund.com and it's why I started the Trend Fund Foundation charity (501C-3). I do not want to be the only kid on the block who can afford to eat well, drive a nice car and own a bigscreen TV. So, kudos to Obama for such a powerful and moving speech. I believe we will achieve great change by inclusion, not exclusion. Exclusion is based on FEAR. Fear that we won't have enough, fear that someone will take what we have, fear that there isn't enough to go around. That, in my belief system, goes against universal truth of abundance. We can ALL share the wealth, there is enough to go around, trust me. Take it from someone who groring up never had a pot to piss in. I talk a lot about HOPE being a 4 letter word in the market, and I firmly believe that. In everyday life, though, it carries a lot of weight and can be a powerful tool. One thing that is great about having a black president, in my view, is that I think it helps dispel victimization amongst racial and gender communities. I'm not big on victims for whole communities. I think individuals can be victimized, but far too often fear mongers and hate mongers preach victimization amongst people's. From one who grew up with a huge chip on my shoulder, and without much of anything, there are no universal victims. We all make personal choices and we need to own them. If you are feeling and acting victim then you can't possibly excel in your life. I am a big believer in the indomitable spirit of humans. To me a large part of success is simply believing you can and will succeed. The President of the US is a black man. Less than 50 years after the civil rights movement of the 60's, and 40 years since Dr.Martin Luther King had a dream we have a black president. Does anyone think that Obama sat at home thinking about how victimized he was, or did he believe he could do what he's done? My guess is the latter and THAT is a key to success. I try to live my life that way, I can do anything I set my mind to, so all I have to do is believe. I was homeless and beat to crap and I am here and you are reading what I have to say, and I am considered by some a success. 'Nuff said!

I believe we can make money together, so far so good! God bless.



In Debt We Trust said...

Waxie - Watch COF. This is one of the few banks (besides GS) still trading at high forward P/Es. What's in their wallet?

Defaulted credit cards!

They are also part of SKF.

Mike said...

Dear Waxie,

I am a regular reader of your blog.. Many thanks for your intelligent honest articles.

Waxie, any opinion on FSLR especially with the most recent hype suurounding "Green Energy"? Do you still think it goes to $25 or below?

Thank you again and all the best,


jtking said...

Waxie... interesting posts on all fronts. Your opinion short term... I bought two large stakes in FAS, looking for a Obama rally... Bad Idea... A) either avg. down and look for a bounce or B) buy equal amount of FAZ and hang in to see which pops, and wait for a reversal. Any notions short term. Peace.

Ricky said...

The man's just very charismatic, i think the world over is glad because HE is a change in himself. The very fact that he's an African-American gives us a visual about the change being real. But that's just the external stuff. How much change he actually makes in the coming days ahead remains to be seen. I'm not holding my breath though. His basic proposal seems very much in line with "Spend spend spend". It's scary when words like trillions just tossed around that much. (I come from a country that's fairly wealthy, but even our sovereign reserves isn't that much) I guess the market isn't very optimistic either huh?
I'll try to see if i can get in a put option for the big banks on one of those lull periods.
What advice would you give to people who bought AIG and C at 5.50 and 9.00 believing they can "ride it out"?

FACTOR R said...

Waxie lot news CEOS buying there on stocks , appl bit the street number and we gonna have tarp 2 do you see a big rally here I was very very berish just like you but today I am not sure ... I got realy confuse here would give us a light !