Sunday, January 04, 2009

A NEW YEAR, A NEW BEGINNING...some thoughts...


Does anybody hear thy pain? The year they call 2008 and the upcoming year, 2009...


I've been trading and calling the market successfully at for over 10 years now. Over those ten years I've seen a lot in terms of the market, the world and myself personally. I've been through now 2 real Bear markets, 2 real Bull markets and a lot of choppy markets in between. We've been through several bubbles, most notably the internet bubble and the credit/housing bubble we're currently experiencing. I've seen 2 wars start, neither of which is really over, and I've seen the deadliest terrorist attack on American soil in our history with 9/11.

I've seen the DOW reach record highs over 12,000 in 1999 and the Nasdaq over 5000, and I've seen the markets lose 60+% of its value high to low once, and working on it twice. I've seen a 2008 that found us having the worst year in the history of the stock market, one which produced tremendous trading opportunities, but one which wiped out many a seasoned trading vet. I've seen 1500+ range days, and I've seen BSC, LEH and FRE and FNM either go belly up, or basically go belly up.

We've seen TRILLIONS in bailouts, and watched our country go from a free market/capitalistic society, to what amounts as a socialist nation on many levels. We've seen oil hit about $150 a barrel and then go under $40, victims of another bubble - the commodity bubble.

We've witnessed the first black President being voted in, and we've seen the largest Ponzi scheme in history go down the tubes, and many formerly rich folks become suddenly not so rich and even poor, with it in the Madoff affair.

There's a lot more, but you get my drift. For me personally, over this time span, I''ve been through a ton, as I know many of you have. I've made millions, had now 3 books published (my new one is available at under RULE YOUR FREAKIN' RETIREMENT now!) I've made my first feature film, CRAZY FOR LOVE (available at Blockbuster), and I've produced several others. I've had 2 beautiful girls, and I've been through the mother of all custody battles.

In 2001 I almost died on a gurney, after I had gone from homeless to riches, from zero to hero, the victim of some unknown ailment. I even flatlined and, yeah, I even saw the "white light". It's not something I'd like to experience again anytime soon, fyi.

On a positive note, I had my life story optioned by Dustin Hoffman, met Adam Sandler, made 3 infomercials, been featured in the NY Times, Wall Street Journal, NY Post, Kiplingers, Crain's Business, and the Financial Times. I've been on CNBC, CNN FN, FOX News, Good Day, NY, Reuters, Bloomberg, and others all around.

In 2008 I had my best trading year since 2000. We've made some very real and very serious calls. I called Gold to $500+ when it was $275, Oil to $100, then $150 when it was LOW $30s (and its' back down to $30s currently, talk about retracements! Wowsa!).

I called the market down in 2008 and so now let me talk about 2009...

2009 is highly unlikely to have an up year. There will be days/weeks/months of good tidings/rallies potentially, but I think more than likely we at least touch 4500 on the DOW in 2009.

Further, I think the Euro is going to be strained by some countries that are stronger then the other. Our dollar is in a heep of trouble after the beginning of the year as we all realize that it don't matter either way and money is diluted.

I also think that there will be a depression in the world, if it hasn't already strarted. I hate making these predictions, cause I hope I am WAY wrong and we go back to prosperity, I just can't really see it. Obama will do a good job managing everything, but eventually people will grow restless because its $s being essentially ripped from them by the government.

Oil will remain under pressure, at least for the 1st few months of 2009, and then get a big move up as inflation starts to kick in.

The government will keep throwing more and more money at the problem and at some point in 2009 they will have to NATIONALIZE the entire banking system as it collapses under its own weight. This is part of why the market sees under 5000 in 2009. There will be a lot of false rallies, and a lot of HOPE that will be disappointed.

How's that for happy? Sorry, I call it as I see it.

This is a tough world we live in, folks, I think a lot of people are trying to figure out how to be "heard" so that they have a voice that someone pays attention to. I know I feel that way often.

On the flip side, we'll all grow a lot, cause whatever don't kill ya, makes you stronger and there's gonna be a lot of pain to go around.

I'll preface it by saying again that this is one year's predictions I hope I am wrong about!

Remember to keep your INTEGRITY! Ultimately that's all we really have in my opinion. In tough times its important to maintain our composure so that we're part of the solution and not the problem. There are simply too many people who don't stop to think about consequences, we need to not be in that category.

Regardless of whether I'm right or wrong about my predictions, let's work together to RULE THE FREAKIN' MARKETS!

Happy New Year, I look forward to meeting and helping a lot of you in 2009 and beyond!


Michael "Waxie" Parness

P.S. I want to make one caveat to my DOW 4500 prediction. I think it'll get there unfortunately, however if the US is able to lower the value of our currency enough then it is possible that the markets will not travel so low. Why? Same as housing, the Fed is attempting to devalue the dollar and therefore TRY to stabilize housing markets. How does that work? Well, it's been tried, particularly in Japan in 1980 and several other times in history. The theory being that if you devalue currency let's say by 50%, then a $1,000,000 home is worth $500,000 but will still list for $1,000,000 based on 50% devaluation. The same could hold true for the markets, which at a 50% dollar devaluation would mean at my 4500 level the DOW would be trading at 9000 (4500 is 50% of 9000). THAT is the only caveat I'll give to my prediction, with the hope I am wrong. It's not in my, or anyone's best interest for the markets to fall so large, but I call it as I see it and this is how I see it. HOPE is a four letter word in the markets, folks, I suggest you stop hoping and start trading! The bigger problems will emerge if and when the markets get cracked even more, let's say to my 4500 level AND the dollar is devalued as well. So, at 4500 and a 50% dollar value, that's really 2250! We're in trouble, folks and its imperative you protect yourself and not get lazy and not get overly bullish OR bearish. This is a TRADING MARKET and THAT is where you can make your money! So, there ya have it, that's my only caveat. I think the FED has done an outrageously POOR job handling this. The illusion is that they are doing good and they are saving us. This is patently FALSE, that's the propaganda they want you to believe and its simply not true. I'm not a conspiracy guy, but I do think that people and governments try to cover their butts if necessary. 'Nuff said!

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