Thursday, January 08, 2009


So, Friday is gonna be VERY interesting. Expect strong move(s) all day and once they pick which way we go it should be a very strong move in that direction. Normally I would say that we should buy the news since we sold the rumor of horrid #s. And, that may prove to be the right move. There are, however, a couple reasons to be leery of that notion.

1)Everyone thinks this is a sure bet, so the contrarian in me says perhaps not
2)The #s may just come in so bad that we fall harder
3)Strong trend is that the January Effect ended officially for us Thursday at the close (how bout the list!!!!).
4)There's a LOT of complacency in this market

Normally I would have a strong call, but there are just too many competing data points. I have a feeling the #s might be sooooo bad that the market has to fall, at least initially. Anything less than 650,000 they will probably buy initially, but if its the 750,000 plus I think it should be, I think we fall pretty hard off the bat.

I have to say, we are KILLING this market, I'm now 5 for 5, knock on wood. I won't say imagine if I go 200 for 200 cause I'm afraid I may jinx myself, but imagine it anyway! This market is just giving us so many nice trading opps here, our job is to just take the candy when the candy is passed! I'm enjoying trading stocks and options and my futures account is doing particularly well % wise. I think its up about 50% in 5 days, thats not too shabby if my math is right!

I have to say, and this isn't my job, but jeez, I just can not see us going very far to the upside after the next up push, assuming there is one! Priced in? It's all priced in? Yeah, ok, good luck buying this market!

There is such tremendous upside to the downside its uncanny. I keep hoping we will break out to 10,000 on the DOW so I can short the heck out of it and see what shakes out. The next down move should be one of the worst yet unfortunately. I hope I'm wrong! It's interesting here, this market. I shorted the ES (S & P) upon the open around 908.50 and I'm up about $3 here. Some trades are just too tempted, everyone was very bold buying into the close Thursday thinking we will definately go up when #s come, and we might, but it ain't a lock and someone holding either way into the #s is nuts if you ask me. Its a pure guess and gamble. Not a good idea in my experience.

The day should start out with fireworks, and then we'll see from there. Again, so many are expecting this move up that it feeds on itself. We may very well tank, but its possible the buyers are already involved in this move. Look at GOOG today, and a lot others. Peole
OK, I am falling asleep, ttyl!!!


Michael Waxie

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