Wednesday, March 26, 2008

IS IT OVA????

Market really is in the s*&^bag to say the least. I have to say, this market and the economy is so screwed it's like a sick joke. I listen day after day to the Fed, and the pundits on CNBC and it's really scary. They actually believe that the Fed is going to save the universe! They actually believe that the Fed should bail the whole entire country out! People made bad investments. Last I looked you make a bad investment, you lose on it, you have to suck it up and move on and try to make a better investment next time! Do we live in a land of whiners? My kids know there are consequences to every action. I've made a TON of bad investments that lost a boatload of money. I threw away crazy amount of money making a movie a few years ago (will finally be in your local Blockbuster in June! Called Crazy for Love) it sucked losing so much money and I sure can use it now, but its gone, I have to move on, I got no choice, baby. The Fed needs to stop treating the public like they are stupid children. If the Fed is bailing out homeowners, they should bail me out of my movie. Wny not? WHere do you draw the line? Besides, even if a case could be made as to why the Fed should do one of the dumbest ideas ever thrown out there, where is the money coming from? There is no difference doing this and just wiping the value of the US Dollar down to zero. That's where we are headed, folks. Sorry, its 1:29 am and I don't have time to put on the kids gloves. If the Fed (when) bail out homeowners they will be making the single biggest mistake in the history of the US Economy. We will 100% be headed into a DEPRESSION that is likely to last for MANY years. They will be dooming our country to the worst economic crisis we have ever known, and they will render our currency worthless. They may very well bankrupt the entire country. Bernanke has ZERO clue about what he is doing. I've said it here before, I'm considered fairly liberal in my views, but I am not blind to fiscal responsibility. You can not keep printing money and throwing it into a wishing well.

The fiscal stimulus. Let me ask anyone reading this. What the freak are you going to do with your $600? Seriously, that is one of the dumbest ideas yet. Yes, everyone gets $600 an that's going to make everything right!!

What the Fed never realizes is that in putting bandaids on economic crisis' they make it WORSE. They delay the inevitable. It was the same with the internet bubble. This is the perfect storm. An election year so no party wants to be responsible and say "we're screwed for the next 3 or 4 years, but we will be ok after that more than likely". That would be responsible and honest. Instead we get these stupid ideas that gain traction because they are all posing for their constituency and all they do is set us way back more and more.

At LEAST one of the major banks is going to go under. I believe Citibank has a very high probability of going under this year. I think Washington Mutual is shot. I think Freddy Mac and Fanny Mae are JOKE stocks. I think there is going to be serious carnage before its all said and done and its unfortunte because what would be responsible would not make people happy, but it would be the best thing possible. Wash the system out, let the real estate market collapse for a while. It'll generate jobs because it'll stimulate growth at the bottom. Instead, we're just compounding the problems and speeding up a very very bad situation, making it much worse.

I hope I am wrong, but I rarely am when it comes to this type of thing. near term I still thnk we can get one more push higher. I am hoping we get to 13,000 - 13,5000 to reset some serious shorts. In the meantime, we'll let the nutty investors get giddy everytime the Fed does something that amounts to nothing more than a bandaid. People will rush out and buy the market thinking that the bottom is in.

When is anyone going to get that as long as people ask the question "is this the bottom" then it's NOT.

I will say I'm not as bullish as I was to start the week. We have made huge lately. My account has more than tripled as of today from 3 weeks ago! that's SICK! I'm good, but thats just sick good, even for me!

Let's play this market here loose, meaning ride the waves. When the market is ready to tank I think we should catch it. The chopiness needs to be feared, its hard to trade a sideways market. We like TRENDS, they are our friends!

RULE

Waxie

P.S. I know I"m gruff here, but I tell it like it is, or at least like i see it. That's all I know how to do! RULE!

7 comments:

chuckmurphy said...

waxie your right the fed don't have a clue but that what there good at i believe were headed for depression not a recession just wondering have u or tiny heard of the amero currency? your honest about how u feel that great love reading what u think

thanks chuck

Mario D'Agostino said...

waxie post your trades beforehand, not after the fact. If you post some of your trades in advance and they work then i might join your service, otherwise don't tell me how good you did w/o proving it before trading (like Rimm or Coin) I could blog the same too.

rlagm3 said...

Waxie, I AGREE WITH YOU 100%.
The scary thing is that if we are headed into the basement here iver the next few years, peoples retirements and pensions will be destroyed. The domino effect will be long lasting and completely hurtful to our future. Any recommendations as to where to allocate 401k funds to really protect our retirement $$? I think your opinion on this would be of great value to everyone on this board. The goal during a time like this is not necessarily to earn 20% a year in the 401k, but to preserve the $$ we have.......

Joe said...

Waxie,

When you started out, did you play a lot of 'cheap' stocks (i.e.- less than $20) right away? It seems like you like those.

I seem to be more consistent with '10 am breakouts' on stocks around $100-200 (rimm, aapl, etc.)

I just haven't gotten as consistent with $10 stocks, which seems ironic to me.


Thanks,

Doheny Drive said...

Let me "put" it to you this way...this rollercoaster ride isn't even NEAR coming to a stop. We are looking at this financial collapse to mushroom cloud. Metals, metals, metals. Gotta hedge. I predict silver to hit around $32 by years end.

voyager said...

It has been "ova" for quite a while. Bear market rally or no, chop or trend, it don't matter to me, cause I am a Trader. Thanks Wax, keep on bloggin...

Peace
voyager

Waxie said...

Thanks for all the comments. Let's not get too bearish or bullish. Remain neutral and trade 'em as ya see 'em!
As far as posting trades before. We do that EVERY SINGLE DAY! My clients pay a lot of money for that info Mario, I can't post it here for you for free, sorry.

You coulda taken the money back guarantee class we had on Monday where we called BEFORE on COIN and RIMM and AA (and in all fairness ORCL was a breakeven). I'm not always right, no one is, but we're pretty darn good and most of my clients are pretty darn happy!

RULE!