Tuesday, October 28, 2008

The meaning of life, or "How the market loves to print us money!"

On Saturday night I went out to this really good Indian restaurant uptown NYC with a buddy of mine. Food was really good, I go there often, maybe 2 times a month, which is a lot in NYC.
Sunday afternoon I drove by the place and there was an SUV that had swerved and drove right through the freakin' place! There were like 40 Fire trucks and ambulances, the whole car was parked firmly IN the restaurant. That's a rare occurance even for NYC! Fortunately by all accounts the couple that had been sitting right where the car struck left 3 minutes before it happened, and fortunately for me it didn't happen when we were there the night before! I remember when I was a kid, a friend of mine got run over by a car on Queens Blvd. in NY when a car jumped the curve and hit him accidentally. Random events that end tragically happen all the time, seemingly without ryhme or reason. Someone religious will put a spin on it with that bent, and I respect that, someone spiritual will say that there is some sort of lesson in it, and I respect that. In a way the market is totally random, as much as we use trends and TA and we quantify it in different ways, there are always variables that can overrule anything we or anyone can come up with. The DOW rallied nearly 900 points today. Why? Well, I can give you the very powerful TREND reason, we almost always run into the FOMC and the market was oversold and shorts wanted to cover before the meeting. And, that's mostly what happened. Random? Not really, but yes really. Our job here is to try to predict market movements, we do that better than any place I've ever come across. I'm biased, clearly, but we have been around far longer than most and we consistently provide winners to our clients. Today we shorted the open and then we went long and caught some huge winners after lunch. We had a couple of losers in between, mind you, but overall a very rewarding day. For me personally it was a VERY nice winning day. Wednesday the FOMC happens. We should get another bump early on and into the FOMC. The Fed will likely cut rates by 1/2 point as we are headed to zero percent interest. The market will like this news and probably pop initially as the first move. Never know, we'll see, but then the second move should be down, and then we'll really see where we want to go. S & P may really get my 1000 target. I still think 10,200 to 10,300 is the absolute top of any move here, and we probably don't even get there. More than likely we head back to 7500 level soon. The election is next Tuesday, and we may get a relief rally again if O'Bama or McCain wins, some will say that the market has priced in an O'Bama victory and the market would be happier if McCain wins. I hope we get a bigger up move, this is a market that is printing money, knock on wood, and the higher we go, the more room there is to the downside when that resumes. Couple people emailed me about this "tradeable rally" we're going to have. Maybe, maybe not. Remember last 1000 point up move we had? That was tradeable for a day and then we headed a lot lower. This isn't likely to last very long. It's possible we get an extended day move, but I don't really see us getting some vastly larger move. I hope I'm wrong, I constantly hope I'm wrong when I'm bearish. Since we trade we can avoid big losses and capitalize on moves both ways. See, the thing is, some things in life are random, or seemingly random at least. Me personally, I don't really believe in accidents, but that's just me. We each digest our own interpretations of life. I think since my mums passed away I take the market less seriously. It's ironic since I've had one of the best runs of my life as a trader. It really is amazing how good trading this market is. Best since 1999 and in some ways better. All you have to do is buy some ink once in a while and you can print the cash, too! In the meantime, it's late and I have a 7 am flight so I'm off to bed, maybe this doesn't even make any sense, maybe it does. I don't know if we get a bigger extention. I think there's a good shot we get a move early tomorrow and that we can rush after a 1/2 pt cut by the Fed. I would fade that move, whichever move and way it goes, cause that trend has worked for as far back as I can recall, its an excellent trading day and a great trend play to fade the 1st FOMC move for a trade. We usually then go back to the way we had gone and then pick a direction from there. THAT move is key, if we can close tomorrow near HOD, which I am skeptical about, but if we can, then we may move to 1000 S & P, maybe 1050 or 1100 potetnially. As much as I am bearish overall, I want us to move higher. So, do we get a tradeable rally? Well, 1000 pt days seem to come easy these days,thats what happens in a Bear market, snap back rallies lull you into a false sense of security. I would not fall for this one, but you have my levels. Random? PErhaps, but no more random then anything else in life. WAXIE

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