Thursday, October 30, 2008

Money, money everywhere!

I just got back from Miami where there are SO many empty and deserted developments. Condos are selling for less than the cost to build them. All the speculative money obviously WAY gonzo! Meanwhile, we're going to now pass another $500 BIL bil to allow homeowners to refinance. On who? Who is paying for all this? I think they should just cut to the chase, in all seriousness. Just print $100 TRILLION dollars and just hand it out to everyone. Then we can all buy multi-million dollar homes for CASH. I think we can call this the WAXIE PLAN! Why not? We're printing money all over the place, might as well just do it all at once! With MY plan, the WAXIE PLAN, we will create jobs, restimulate the housing industry cause people will be BUYING BUYING BUYING, and thus stimulate the economy. The booze business, prostitution and illegal drug trade will also zoom, but no plan is perfect! It'll also put generations into debt and impact our children and our children's children, but it's all good,dudes! It's ALL GOOD!
I shoulda not sold my apartment. I shoulda just pleaded poverty and said that my $3 MIL apartment needed a new mortgage! Maybe the government should just pay off all the mortgages in the country. While they are at it, they can pay renters rent 5 years in advance. Just give everyone a free pass! I have to say, it's pretty sickening. The market is running up just based solely on the amount of money the Fed is printing. What they don't seem to understand is they are RECREATING the same exact problems we are dealing with, only worse! But, what do I know? Maybe it'll all work and the DOW will go to 25,000. Maybe 35,000. 50,000? Nah, probably not 50,000! We've been really kicking this markets butt, I mean seriously. Up, down and all around, the calls have been pretty astounding. What's really awesome for us is that we are getting a very nice bounce here. I think S & P should see 1000, maybe even 1100 if the Fed keeps injecting more and more money into things. That will set up one helluva short, cause we are 1000% going to see 4500 no matter what they do. Mark it down, it'll come to pass. In the meantime, I am now looking at two things, trading the long side intraday and resetting some of my shorts with puts with one more nice push up. If S & P does see 1000 here shortly I'll be buying some puts on some of the ones I really like lower longer term. Look at today, HIG is done basically, PRU same, and the market rallied. It's kinda insane, its like there is the cone of silence around the market, making sure that no one sees whats really going on! But, again, as a trader this is awesome. and thats all I care about. This remains such a GREAT market to trade.If you catch moves you catch HUGE moves, this just moves in chunks. I would like a nice gap down Friday, cuase that should be VERY buyable. ASIA is barely down, and its the last day of the month and people are foolish, thinking they don't want to miss the move. Remember one of the golden rules? There is a bigger fear of missing an up move then there is about losing money! OK, so lets see where we go. I do think there's a good shot we see 1000 S & P either Friday or early next week. I'm not holding longs, but I have lightened up on shorts and trading the long side intraday for sure when appropriate. We caught stuff both ways Thursday, had some very very nice trades. My big short has been GS, and thats obviously paid off nicely. I expect MUCH lower prices on it but a rising market lifts all crapola and GS is crapola. Next week will be a big week, a lot of people are betting that we have a good November. Here's the thing, and it should be obvious to you all by now, but TRADING is the ONLY way to rule this market. We are all over the place, and everyone just rushes out and then rushes in with no real rationale either way. I mean, we going down because the market is VASTLY overvalued, and everything else is shot. We going up because the fund selling stopped temporarily and the Fed is injecting loads of money in, and we can't go straight down. And, THAT my friends is the advantage we have. We can be flexible and play it both ways, while investors are reamed and get margined out only to watch their stocks go higher once they are out. They get out, then they get back in and then they get back out, and that's why you simply can't invest, its a fools game, and its a losing game. I'll see you all after Holloween! I'm going as a Pirate, maybe I'll have the Fed walk the plank! RULE!


Rich said...

Hi Waxie

"The booze business, prostitution and illegal drug trade will also zoom, but no plan is perfect!"

Actually, this is part of the perfect plan. If everything fell apart and we went into a depression these things would probably pick up anyway. If we went into a depression you don't think there would be more people on drugs, booze and prostitutes? Also, I used to work in a gym in the L.A., CA area where a lot of cops worked out. I distinctly remember a discussion about how they like it when crime is up. For them it is "job security". So, think of all of the wonderful jobs your plan would create for law enforcement, attorneys, health care/hospitals and rehab centers and county workers cleaning up all of the trash and graffiti that people would invariably create.

Don't underestimate yourself my friend! :-)


kbtexas said...

Waxie, will there be massive inflation because of this?