Sunday, November 02, 2008

Da rally continues...?

I think we should get another push up to that S & P 1000 level I've been saying. I covered all my shorts, other than GS, which I will add to if it pops on a move higher. The election is a wild card, I can't really do more than guess how we'll react to whomever wins. So, why bother? Rather stick to things that I am fairly sure of. 1000 seems like a pretty safe bet here, they really want to push us higher. The competing factor is that the week after FOMC the market almost always reverses the prior week's action. So, best case would be a nice push up, maybe get S & P to 1050 area and the DOW to the lower end of the 9700 to 10,300 level I've been pointing to as a potential top of this move, and then it should be a fairly safe trade to close the week lower. Having said that, the election really is a wild card. The race seems to be pretty close. I have friends who swear O'Bama can't win, and friends who say that he is a lock. Since I don't bet on elections I'll stick to stocks and see how we react. I think pre-election I want to be fairly flat. We may get a big move either way and I think the path of least resistence is to fade whatever the move is. That's been working SICK! The GAPS have been really really really profitable for a while now. Friday I said here that I was hoping for a gap down as I felt we would finish higher, and thats exactly what happened! Tomorrow I am hoping for the same thing because I feel pretty confident we do see that S & P 1000 level here. And, this is a good spot to do it. A gap up therefore makes it tough. I think we have to fade a big gap up and then cover and look for a long entry if it presents itself. This market is really such a traders market. We're all over the place, no ryhme and no reason. I've been reading a lot of articles lately, fund managers keep saying how cheap the market is, but its not based on anything reality related. Having said that, the shift last week to positive was great because it allows us much greater volatility. As I stated, my only real short (with puts) is GS, which is trading as though it wants my much lower target, but which may squeeze if the market does bust a move here early this week. I am long the S & P futures as my hedge. I have a bunch of stocks on my watchlist that I am waiting to see where i can reenter the shorts on them. I still think other than this move the money will be made to the short side. What we could really be setting up for, which for us will be awesome, is that the stuff that is dead in the water in my opinion, like the Ags, the energies and all the inflation stuff will get a move higher with the market. I would love to get POT to $100s again for a short entry. Yummy! Did you see the action in AAPL Friday? Gapped down on no apparent news and stayed down the whole day even with the rally. The market is ill, folks. It's ill and its not getting better, just being fed some meds to help it temporarily. I told clients that $110 was a decent entry on AAPL short. I stick to that, the stock is vastly overpriced. Tech is where I am looking for some nice reshort entries. We'll see either way. Oil and some commodities might get a nice push higher and the dollar lower here early this week. I think if we reverse off that move it'll be a really nice trade for you all.Oil at $75 would be a very nice short. Good luck and remember to vote Tuesday! Don't matter who you vote for, but vote! Waxie

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