Wednesday, November 19, 2008

OK, I've decided to be humble, folks...

I could say that I've called this completely, I could say that GS was gonna hit $50 (new target is $25) and its there, I could say that I've been BEGGING every one of you to SIGN UP FOR OPTION TRADER because you would be up HUGE, like SICK money, like people are PRINTING MONEY! I could say that 4500 is a lock, but I can't really say that even though I believe it cause that's not a fact. The rest? THE REST ARE FACTS! I'll tell you this, it would be nice for the naysayers who sent me those very nasty emails saying I was nuts or worse, if you guys (or gals) would be menches and menchesses enough to send me a NICE email saying something nice. It's ok, though, I don't need it. Having said all this, I'm sorry that I have beent his right, this fast. I know I seem like I'm gloating, and I guess I am on some level, but it is true that I would rather we go up then down (of course, I'd like to be long when we finally do!). But, as I've said many times before, the only way to make money trading is by being a REALIST! If you aren't willing to look at reality, if you go on TV and keep saying to people that the bottom is in, that this is the "buy of a lifetime" if you keep saying very wrong and very foolish and frankly VERY destructive things to people to get them to step in front of a train that has BARELY started to do what I believe it'll ultimately do, then I'm sorry, WE have to make money. This is my livlihood and I will protect my clients to NO END, period, end of story. Today we made SICK MONEY. I had my second best day in I think at least 5 years. I've told you guys for a LONG LONG time that C was toast, that FNM was toast, that FRE was toast, that GS was toast, that FSLR was/is toast (going to $20s I believe), that APPL, GOOG, RIMM all toast. Those of you who have been clients on any level know that we are beyond rocking. I am getting testimonials EVERY DAY from people who are truly ROCKING and making insane money. I'm telling YOU to get in the game, folks. Stop sitting on the sidelines and get with the program! Now, as far as the market goes, it'll be interesting here. I think we have a decent shot to see 7500 on the DOW by Friday. We are right at 8000 obviously, so we will either hold this level and attempt a decent size bounce and may get back to 8500, or break down and go to 7500. Best thing that can happen to the market is a GAP DOWN tomorrow, a BIG GAP DOWN and get some margin calls and then a high volume selloff, even better if we get that and hit 7500 which should act as MAJOR support here near term. That'll get broken eventually, but even I would be covering all my shorts and even trying to catch a bounce. BUT, until we get that type of high volume capitulatory move, we are in no man's land. Even if we do bounce it's unlikely to last long. If you took our BEAR HUNTING class you know why, markets that are driven by NEWS and HOPE and PRAYER always go DOWN A LOT in the end. Investors keep waiting for the Fed to save them, so everytime the Fed says something they buy thinking that its all going to be ok, this is just foolish and it is CRUSHING so many people it's scary. I am sorry about that, but this is a market and if you are smart then you are playing it BOTH ways, if you are foolish then you will keep buying every time there is some absurd news and think that the "bottom" is in. I am sure tomorrow they will trek out the same ridiculous cast of characters on CNBC who will say they are ALL IN in the market and that they believe that in the long run it'll pay off. I am telling you in no uncertain terms that I believe we will now head to 2500 on the DOW and roughly 450 or lower on the Nasdaq. Those of you who said I was nuts for saying GOOG $150, and GS $75, let alone $50, and C $5 and etc, etc,etc,etc. I say to you, open your mind, take a deep breath and look a REALITY. Reality is we are in very VERY bad shape, the best thing you can do is to go with the market, not against it. Look at GS today. We were down early and they were still buying it! I mean, it was UP. After hours here it's up like .40 cents. I mean, its $55 and people think its cheap? Why? GS has NO BUSINESS! They are BROKEN, folks. BROKEN. And, people just refuse to look at reality. They say "Oh, Warren Buffet bought them" when that's NOT what he did. In a Bear market you look for places to RESHORT and places to COVER, you don't look for places to BUY, that is a losing strategy! LOSING. This Bear market is not over, not even remotely so. Try to go long for more than a trade at your own risk. You will be VERY VERY sorry I believe, and I've been DEAD on. THAT is reality, isn't it? OK, now before I go to meet all the other parents from my 7 year olds class (many are in the biz and need help, hehe!), I want to comment on the GM hearings. If it isn't clear from today that they should NOT bail out these companies, I don't know what it will take. They will more than likely, and its stupid and unfortunate and it's sad that the vast majority of Americans are going to suffer for the moves that CLEARLY aren't and won't work that our government continues to make. I just don't understand, these people are supposed to represent their constituency. Who in the world wants to do this bailout who isn't in that industry? And, I am VERY sympathetic to everyone suffering, trust me, but we have had a very successful free market system for over 2 centuries, now we want to throw it away because of lobbyists? I like a couple of the senators who really went after them and brought up some very good points for once. Why is the government picking one industry over another? It's a serious question and it has serious implications, folks. You may or may not think it affects you, but it 100% will and does. The government should not be saying "oh, we can't let GM and Ford fail, it'll be a disaster!" So, what happens when they ultimately fail no matter what, which they will, and all these other industries fail, which they can and will? Is the government prepared to bankroll not just 1.5 MIL jobs (which is a lie anyway since if they went into bankruptcy it would be a job loss but not nearly that many, probably less than 1/2 that amount is my guess), but are they prepared to bankroll let's say 10 to 15 MILLION jobs that I think are going to be lost? These constant half measured attempts to do some good are doomed to fail, they are making things WORSE, not better! The 700 BIL was supposed to stabilize markets and yet we've lost over $2.5 TRIL in market value since they passed it. And, what's scary is that CNBC every day says "we don't get it, TARP should work!" Yeah? Maybe if you thought about it you would realize that the market is pricing in the cost of NATIONALIZATION! C is $6s because they have at least 300 BIL in bad debt that will probably default and no backstop that can work and for the govt to bail them out means the govt will have to take them over! C stock is WORTHLESS, and THAT is why its at $6 and going to probably ZERO without some news that is real and meaningful. C goes to ZERO, mark it down, its still a short and people continue to try to step in front of these trains. It's not working and will not work! The worst thing that people can do here is keep trying to pick a bottom, and it will be much worse if the government continues to try to manipulate the markets. The governments job is not to do what it's doing. Call me unpatriotic, I'm not. I care deeply about what's going on, it makes me ill that I watch these LIARS go on TV and LIE. Did you hear Rick Waggoner say today that "we have a GREAT management team, and I wouldn't change anything" basically. How in the world can he say that? Great management team? Can you imagine if GM had bad management then! ROFLMAO! OH MY GAWD! PLEASE SOMEONE HELP USSSS! Until there is HONESTY, and until there is REALITY this market can not get a real lasting bounce and anyone looking for it is just very foolish. I know I am rambling, but how about that Warren Buffet call to buy American? When does Warren get a margin call? This notion that its patriotic to buy "American" is dying a very horrible death. It's simply not true. American is FREE MARKETS, and it's letting the government do it's job, which is not to keep putting taxpayer money at risk, with NO SHOT of repayment! I love today that they were saying that GM will get a LOAN! ROFLMAO! That's like me lending the homeless guy on the corner $100 and expecting him or her to give it back to me. ANY money that goes to these companies is NOT ever coming back! How about that money we were all going to make on AIG? Or, the $10 BIL we already gave C, or GS, or MS? Where and when is it? Does anyone think we are going to get the $150 BIL back that we're out on AIG? I mean, be real already. YOU need to live in REALITY. As I've said many times before - HOPE is a 4 letter word, folks. The market isn't going up in ten years, or 20 years, sorry. We will see 2500 before we see 12,000 again, mark it down. And, as I will continue to say...I HOPE I'm wrong! :) RULEEEE! Oh, you want two shorts? FSLR and BLK, much pain to come I believe, still a lot of downside on these two in my opinion. We'll see, we shall see! FSLR target is $20s and BLK target is $50 or lower. RULEEEEE!!!!! How'd ya like the SPG short call, or the VNO short call, or the BLK short call today my dear and wonderful clients? WE ARE ROCKINGGGGGGG! RULEEEE!!!! Michael "Waxie" Parness *SIGN UP FOR OPTION TRADER!!! NOW!

7 comments:

JayW said...

Waxie,

Looks like you guys are doing very well. Congrats!!! Quick question for you, I've been daytrading for years, but this market is too dam tough with this choppy action. 1. Is it too late at this point to make some real money? 2. I only have about 25K to work with, is that enough to really do anything? I've thought about giving the service a shot, but the market has dropped a ton and from your posts it seems you guys got short at much higher levels. Thanks.

Anar said...

Great post! great calls!

hopkins950 said...

WAXIE....

DON'T BE HUMBLE....

JUST ADMIT WHEN YOU'RE WRONG...

AND ADMIT WHEN YOU'RE RIGHT !

AND BOY....HAVE YOU BEEN RIGHT!

LOVE YA.....STOCKGURL

mnabanker said...

AWACSOKJB63Waxie,

Nice job on your picks. I have been receiving your letter for about a month, and you have been incredibly accurate on your option plays. I wish I could say the same for my other investment letter subscriptions over the past year. That is ok because Waxie profits will no long be going to more credentialed investment gurus who have done everything but make me money. It is nice to know who you can depend on for money making picks in this most difficult market. Thanks.

Jay

mnabanker said...

Waxie,

Nice job on your picks. I have been receiving your letter for about a month, and you have been incredibly accurate on your option plays. I wish I could say the same for my other investment letter subscriptions over the past year. That is ok because Waxie profits will no long be going to more credentialed investment gurus who have done everything but make me money. It is nice to know who you can depend on for money making picks in this most difficult market. Thanks.

Jay

Dburn said...

Waxie,

I have watched your calls since 2000. While I've never had the bucks to join up, I finally learned to short. The small amount of money that I have is up 25% this year just from reading your blog.

As far as Your calls: I remember in in 2000 when you called for the Naz to drop to 1000. You were slightly off. It dropped to 1100. We all know that the timing of good calls is as important as the call itself. Your timing has been usually within days on a macro and micro level.

If people have the requisite funds of $30,000 or so so they can make more than 3 RT in a 5 day period, I would tell them: "if you don't join Waxie, you may as well put your money under the mattress".

You got the gift man. You scare the CNBC types. I mean how many commercials are they going to be able to sell if they have a guy who says the market is "Death Knocking At Your Door"?

I'm glad your still willing to share a little bit of yourselves with the poor and impoverished with your blog.

In a way I'm happy that your face isn't adorning the covers of the business magazines. Very few are unable to look at press coverage as anything more than a sales tool. I think you would, but I 'm always fearful.

Just know that many people remember your warning in 2000 when the Naz was sitting at 5300 and watched their next eggs go "Poof". If they aren't listening now it's because they listen to the "Buy when there blood on the streets" crowd."

This market will not reward buy and holds. That's when you have been emphasizing. Just trade em.

Thanks for being you.

Quick Note of Dow history: At
the height of the bubble in 1929, the Dow was at 365+/. It fell 22% in a day and proceeded to lose another 90% a year after. It took 25 years to see that 365+/ level again.

People who laugh at your calls are laughing themselves right into the poorhouse.

Sincerely

Don Burnstein

(Short C and HOG-)

thomas said...

What is ROFLMAO? Sounds like a cousin to DILLIGAS, but what are the letters?