Saturday, November 22, 2008

I AM COMPLETELY FLAT, I took ALL my shorts off...

While I continue to be VERY strong on DOW below 5000 and potentially going as low (or lower) than 2500, I think the risk/reward ration here has switched to neutral. In fact, I think there's a good shot we get a very nice bounce in commodities in particular. Watch oil, corn, etc. for a higher move short term, probably this week. The short side is now overcrowded on commodities and again, the risk/reward is neutral at best, and bullish worst case for Bears. I'm looking to reshort some stocks two ways, either on a breakdown of Friday's lows here early this week, or on a nice rally into resistence. We are going to be promoting a bunch of stuff here the next week or two. Please keep an eye out for details to follow shorty. Early this week is key here, if we can't hold 7500 we may see 5000 by January 1st. We shall see! That's a long long LONG way off! RULE! Waxie

4 comments:

Orlando Lee Stevenson said...

Hi - given the action later this week, any changing your views on AMED?

Interestingly- Fri, Nov 14, 2008
• Zacks #1 Rank Additions for Friday included AMED

Thanks,

Bill said...

Thanks for your comments and free advice! I appreciate that!

Erik28 said...

Waxie,

WIth Obama looking like he will naming his ENTIRE cabinet as well as laying out his "plans" here THIS WEEK.

I can't help to only think of this as "using all the bullets at once". I mean i would suspect the markets to react very favorably to that. However once he names them ALL at once, AND his plan is "pumped". What bullets are left for the rest of this yr for the bulls?

I like you are less bullish on the commodity plays, obviously...b/c if the dollar slips, they could take off. But TECH is going to the poorhouse regardless of what the dollar does (imo) GOOG, AAPL, etc.

I can only see GOOG, AAPL going only DOWN much harder in late nov, and all of DEC. For the reason you mention, as illistrated in your books. (window dressing, and capital loss/tax credits)

I enjoy all your insight and benifit greatly from your market sentiment.

I mean, if he names everyone all at once and pumps his "plan" ALL this week, which is looking like whats going to happen. I can only see that as an advantageous ENTRY point (after that) for the bears once again. Namely the big TECH names (goog, aapl, etc).

I like to stay as nimble and non bias as possible. But i can't help to think that AFTER he does he thing, and if it's all at once, that gravity is going to be very strong for the weaker names till DEC 31st, for the reasons I mentioned above.

What am i missing? Lemme know Wax!

Thanks for all ya do! RULE and the heck w/ the naysayers, even beerguy is all aboard! lol

AP said...

Waxie, could you share the text of you book that you are about to publish this spring about the retirement. Thanks in advance. AP