Monday, October 20, 2008

Is the bottom in?

Simple = NO, not on your life!

However, as I've stated, nothing goes in a straight line, and I thought we would see he S & Ps at least hit 1000 again. In fact, I would not be surprised if we hit 10,000 to 10,300 on the DOW.

I've gotten a lot of emails asking why I would call AAPL long even though I have it on my Bear list(s). That's what makes trading, folks! You need to stay nimble! You can't get caught being overly bearish, or bullish and then getting caught with your hand in the cookie jar when we go opposite your bias!

This is why Bear markets are always so disasterous, because everyone tries to pick bottoms and fund managers need to be invested in the market more often then not, so they have to try to find places of entry. Buffet Friday gave them a reason to justify reentry.

So, what will happen more than likely is that we get these rallies of sorts on very light volume and then the market will sell off on heavier volume and crush all the funds and wishful thinking investors who keep trying to pick a bottom. And, then when they finally ALL give up, thats when the real bottom will be in place, at least for a while.

So, do I think ultimately AAPL sees the other side of $50? Absolutely, same as I said that when I had GRMN, RIMM and 20 others now that have done what I said they would. BUT, AAPL reports earnings tomorrow after the close and thus, for me, is a buy on weakness into the report, very similar to what GOOG did. AAPL is following the same pattern, and as a Trend Trader I'm always looking for that type of mimicking move. AAPL is still a cult stock, so it may also get upgraded tomorrow by some analyst into the earnings. Thing is, regardless if AAPL goes up or down, its a good high % play to me. That doesn't mean it'll work, it very well may not, the stock is trading like its about to fall off a cliff, but I need to stick to my plan and my plan is to sell AAPL before the close. I own some calls on it, so I'll either make or lose money before earnings come out. Chances are AAPL will get a bounce off earnings, there are a lot of people short it, but since I like the stock to $50s, I just don't want to hold it over earnings. Look at RIMM for 50 reasons why we don't like to hold things over earnings to the long side, and look at GOOG for 50 reasons why we don't like to hold things to the short side over earnings! Both stocks went about $50 post earnings! That's reason enough to not gamble! The play is into earnings. Best for us to trade off of tomorrow will be to get a nice gap DOWN, fade it to the long side and then go from there depending on what the market gives. Remember, if we are going to get a couple or three days rally, which we may, then there will be lots of laggards that play catch up with todays move. Ultimately this will fail more than likely, just like all the others have so far. There's no signs unfortunately of any economic pickup, there can't be for quite a while. They are going to do another stimulus package, but it can't really help unfortunately. Growth doesn't come with these types of phoney stimuluses. Growth comes organically. The market needs to find its own level, its insane they keep tossing the kitchen sink at the market as though there is some panacea they will find that will fix the whole thing at once! It's idiotic and doomed to make things worse, but no one can stop a beaurocracy once its in motion, my friends. Plesae do me a solid and write CNBC to ask them to have me on, same with Neil Cavuto. I haven't had time since my kids were born to really put myself out there like I used to, so I do this, but I think its time for me to give my take on things, and it's time for reality to be brought into the conversation, there are so many pom pom wavers and so few truth tellers! And, please, for G-ds sake, tell that guy Dennis to shut up! I have a dang headache! RULE! Waxie


Erik28 said...

sent both requests for ya!

(CNBC overall e-mail)

(CNBC - Fast Money e-mail)

Erik28 said...

which subshow do ya want Waxie?

or do you just want CNBC in generall?

the subsets have their own emails, and so does CNBC in general.

let us know, so we can let THEM know for ya! it "Mad Money" u wanna go on? LOL im kidding....

sanjay said...

waxie, i saw you on one of fox business shows on weekends but this was very long time ago.I think you recommended wendys , anyways what happened ?I thought most of these guys on these business shows have contracts !!I am fading appl tomorrow morning lets see .

Nick said...