WHAT'S TO COME...

Very interesting market here, folks. We looked dead early today but then rallied back against the grain and stretched out some nice gains across most sectors, with the industrials and metals leading the way. Some oversold and unloved stocks bounced as well, like FFIV and APKT and PCLN, while NFLX and BIDU continued their assault on upward momentum, pushing to blue skies on BIDU and closer to a breakout on NFLX if we continue to bounce (or it just does). I pity the shorts on NFLX, they had hope there for a few days that it would finally come back to earth - only to be CRUSHED once again as the stock got upgraded by Goldman and then again yesterday and then has news seemingly everyday that pushes it higher and higher...One stock trading very oddly again is AAPL. You know I liked it short longer term and we caught a very nice $20ish move down up til yesterday, but today it sold off HARD early and bounced but still lagged the overall market. Something appears to be up, but that's pure speculation on my part, so we'll see. Just don't like the way its trading, if we continue higher it will probably bounce but its up days are fewer and it bounces huge when it does which typically isn't bullish, much as bulls are happy when it does go up $8 or $10 a day. Needs a blue skies breakout to confirm in my view that it will see $400 before $300, but it very well may...

Next week we have WINDOW DRESSING and we're doing a class (I'll post the link here tomorrow) and that's typically very bullish for the market overall, so it'll be interesting to see if the market can hold over 1300 and then potentially retest those yearly highs soon. Earnings season is again in vogue as ORCL and RIMM report Thursday after the close. ORCL has beaten big and rallied hard for a while after earnings reports that I can recall, so it'll be a nice tell for us if it does or doesn't follow that trend. A weak showing would potentially scare some weak handed bulls and a blow out might push us right back to those highs I just spoke of.

RIMM is anyone's guess. I'm long a few calls that I at the moment plan on selling before earnings, and my sense is they have a better shot of going up then down further after a pretty dramatic selloff from the $70s, but the #s will tell on this one and if they are bad the stock usually tanks pretty hard. Next stop down would potentially be $50 or less if they really screw things up. We'll see soon enough...

I shorted the Euro today against the dollar, up a few sheckles, just thinking that the dollar isn't ready for complete collapse just yet. We'll see, tight stop on it and may take some profits here after I finish this up anyway. Not much would prevent the dollar from rallying so that the EURO is 1.38 area rather then 1.41 area, but against a short term trade for me that I intend to be out of very soon, if not tonight even...

If the dollar does bounce its not good for stocks, but market is all over the place so we just have to sit back, relax and play it by ear...more later - rock on and RULE!

Michael "Waxie" Parness
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Twitter: @Realwaxie