Thursday, March 17, 2011

Friday and more...

Does anyone want to own stocks long over the weekend with all the lunacy in the world going on? I'll be surprised baring unequivical good news if we close green Friday, though it is an Options expiration so anything is possible. Right now it feels like we have blinders on and stay in denial about reality.

Saudi King speaks at 7 am EST should move the oil market. I look for a very whippy day, so be careful BOTH ways.

APPL and tech all around is trading horribly, even on a day like today when the DOW smoked it, the Nasdaq could not sustain anything into the close. AAPL fell out of bed and looks VERY heavy here. I think on the next push lower this thing sees close to or below $300. I don't mean the next day we close down, I mean the next sustained move lower. I view AAPL as one of the best shorts on the board at this point.

I know, I know thats blaspheme! How dare I not believe AAPL goes straight up and never stops? Well, pretty easy, look at the way its trading. Anything is possible and when we get into next earnings seasons soon it'll bounce again, if not before, I just see the way its trading and its not trading well at all. It was roughly $5 off its intraday highs by the close even with the DOW pushing toward the days highs. Not a very strong performance.

Having said that, futures flying here afterhours right now, up about 16 pts, from being down about 10 earlier, so a 26 point reversal - not chump change. News rules rule continues and we are slaves to every headline that comes out of Japan and other parts of the world.

You've got to really pay attention to the news flow. I don't have the TV on but as I watch the NQ's surge here I have to assume some news came out that is positive.

If you read my blog last night you'll know I thought we would rally today but that I think we will go a lot further down longer term. I think the notion that we'll get a huge move that holds if they get the nuclear situation under control is a very nice fantasy, and maybe it happens, but I remain in the camp that belivees its just a BS stop gap move that will be beaten down.

If you haven't had a chance, read Amanda Ripley's book "When Disaster Strikes" she talks about people dealing with reality, or not talking about it.

Also, keep your eyes on the news about radiation and CA. That would clearly be huge move news if G-d forbid that radiation turns out to be stronger then they are saying.

I'm not really sure that we can go much further then 1300 on the S & P and the Nasdaq looks lower to me still either way.

So, at this point its wait and see what shakes out. Don't overdo the trading lot size and lets see if we can catch a free moves.

My #1 short remains AAPL. If you watched the way it traded today you'll know why, it hasn't been anything but relatively weak in up markets and weaker in weaker market.

Michael "waxie" Parness

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