Sunday, June 21, 2009

NO MAN'S LAND...but...

It's better then living someplace where there's no free speech, or a real market!

I can't turn on the news anymore, call me a woosey, but it's just too painful to watch people getting mutilated by their own people (or any people for that matter).

The only good that comes out of something like what's going on in Iran is that people, I think, here see that not everyone (in fact most) Iran's are not embodied by their knucklehead "President" who spews bile everyone. There are radicals everywhere, even here. It's very sad watching people get killed because they are seeking to have a voice. We're lucky to live in a place where most people respect the right to free speech and where a free market system enables us, and schlubs like me to trade and make a living. Hopefully that remains the case. We get to see what happens when government goes too far and takes the will of the people too far. Or, not far enough!

The market remains in no man's land. The bias for this week is historically VERY positive. This is the last week of the 2nd quarter and it follows a positive quarter for the markets in general, plus we have earnings upcoming on many strong stocks. That typically means we have a strong positive bias. That's the very bullish case.

On the flip side, the market hasn't been able to bust and hold above 950 on the S & P and every attempt to mount it is sold forcefully, so far.

I lean LONG, citing the bullish arguement for now, though I wouldn't play heavily here either way as I just think there are too many people leaning long along with me at this point and it could weigh on the market.

Best would be a drawdown Monday and Tuesday which would give us a place to start a nice ramp into end of the quarter window dressing.

Also remember that eventually this world crazy stuff does indeed impact our markets, we are not alone in the world and we are affected - thankfully.

Let's say a prayer for the good people of Iran who are fighting for their own freedoms and be grateful for ours.

I'm laying low this week, but should be able to post here a few times. I am just not really getting better so far and besides the fact that I had two bad trading weeks (yup, it happens to even me when I trade when I'm not supposed to!) so going to follow my own rules and lay a bit low until I'm back on my feet a bit more consistently.

Watch the range we're in for clean breaks and palces to hop on board. I think you have to buy the dips rather then sell the moves higher here still, but again, patience is a virtue, so do NOT overtrade either way!



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