Tuesday, June 09, 2009

Great stuff!

I'll tell ya, out of pain and desperation comes inspiration!

One thing that is very positive about what's going on in the economy is that I am definately getting more ideas from you guys! It is appreciated! Don't ask me about some dumb penny stock, though I own CEGE for the moment (and I do mean moment), in my ten years doing this pretty much if we've had more then 25 or 30 microcaps I'd be surprised. Maybe its a little more then that, but % wise its got to be 1/10th of 1% or less is my best guesstimate!

So, let's stick to what has worked in the past and cull winners from that!

Two emails I got TONIGHT I want to share with you, paraphrasing and pulling excerps from them;

Waxie, Next move UP? You meant down, right? hehe ... Waxie,
Next move UP? You meant down, right? hehe
when Window dressing is over (ie in 3 weeks)

jmo..i think its going to be a TANK-FEST! (only reason i am waiting to go short names like SPG)

but i guess we shall see come July...

alot of stocks that have outperformed the SPY for the qtr, which are also highly owned by the funds (90%)...IE SPG look set up to tank.

but not till June is over


Ill play the reverse window dressing stronger than the forward trend...

If FDO sells off hard going into the end of june, then id look to get it long on July 1st. (as it has underperformed the SPY) reverse set up from SPG

just curious how YOU are looking at this qtr's Window Dressing, since its the OPPOSITE of the past 2 qtrs, as in this qtr is finally UP, for once.

thanks in advance, I learned Window Dressing from you. So i have already ran my screeners to see

a) what is highly owned by funds

b) what has outperformed SPY, what has underperformed

to play the leaders long before and short after
and the laggards short before and long after

thanks in advance for any Window dressing trends you see probable this QTR.


My answer? #1 thanks for the thoughts! And, #2 I said on FOX Biz last week that I think we see the highs of the year in July. There are a couple of reasons I think that could be right. I think that particularly the financials should do VERY well from this quarters earnings and I think people won't and don't want to miss the potential move higher on good news in that sector. Earnings come in hot and heavy in and through July and it seems unlikely that we'd just tank into that. It has and does happen, but I will be surprised. Plus Tiny thinks S & P sees 1050 to 1150 or even 1200 before we do roll over and tank. So, this seems like a good place for us to go in July. Timing is everything, so we'll see soon enough, but that's my current take.

As far as Window Dressing, I agree with the assessment above to a certain degree, but keep in mind that we do bleed into earnings so I would probably shy away from the earnings plays post Window DRessing and stick with stuff that has already reported, or that reports further in the future. Timing, again, is everything, particularly in trading!

SPG I hate long long term, but it certainly could see $70s even before that happens.Right now futures pointing to another strong open tomorrow, so if that holds we'll bump right into 950 resistence and we'll see if we finally bust that and head to 1000, or just use it as an excuse to sell off again.

The next email I got was about Gold next week. Now I haven't checked into it, but the writer apparently feels strongly that Gold should move up next week and suggests playing NEM and other GOld stocks for just that week (next week). He says its worked great every year since 2001 except 2002.

My take? I have no idea on this "trend". If thats correct and its 7 of 8 that certainly could be a timing/seasonal trend that is worth playing or at least monitoring, but I'll try to check it out and see for myself.

Whether its true or not, I appreciate the thoughts, I have a couple tricks up my sleeve and plan to roll them out shortly! Stay tuned!

As long as you guys and gals are being deliberate and using proper money management and doing your research before diving in, you can come up with ideas, many of you, and come up with potentially money making situations. Well, send me any and all ideas that are reasonable at - waxie@trendfund.com, I'm happy to take a realistic look at them all and if it works will feature them here and perhaps beyond that. Come up with a few and perhaps you'll be working with us at Trendfund.com!

Ya never know! :)




Erik said...

Waxie, first of all thank you for replying to my e-mail, and in such detail.

Since last qtr's earnings were all "terrific!", I can easily see a pre-run up INTO the reports, as people try to "position ahead" for the next Blowout report, as their memory is short and will be thinking its going to be just like last qtr, almost all rocket-shots!

When you talk about the financials should do VERY well from this quarters earnings and traders dont want to miss the move.

I assume your reffering to the PRE-Earnings buying bullishness....NOT the earnings results reaction.


Momentum and sentiment wise, the analysts are typically big time chasers. If sentiment is good, they put the EPS too high and stocks miss.

If sentiment is poor, they put the EPS way low and everyone "blows out" - ie last qtr

You are leaning towars the high of the year in july right BEFORE earnings...aren't ya waxie? lol

Cap said...

70's for SPG ??? Good luck w/ that one !

Even their banker Merrill can only see $59 maybe kinda sorta.

Anything mid-50's is a good short.