Monday, April 27, 2009

Of Swines and such...

OK, so another MOnday and another down day. It's getting TRENDY, hehe.

Unfortunately much of the downdraft had to do with Swine Flu scare. And, more unfortunately I have what seems like the flu and I was out with someone last week that just got back from Mexico, so tomorrow I'll be getting tested. I'm sure some will be happy, I've been called worse then a swine in my life, hehe. Oy vey, guess I'm paying back some Karmic debt these days. It's all good.

In the meantime, the futures are crapping out as I write this, so what's the other trend lately? TURNAROUND TUESDAY! A gap down has to be buyable at some point Tuesday. I do not like the financials here, Sheila Baer said some pretty apropo BEARISH things. A lot of banks are going to need a lot more funding. Shocking, I know, but meanwhile investors and traders are using any excuse here to take some profits.

99 out of 100 times these types of events turn out to be buying opportunities. I would watch the airlines, the cruise companies and the hotels for entries on a nice fat gap down. Take RCL for example, stock was down huge Monday on the Swiney news. Get it down another 10% near the open Tuesday and I think its worth a poke for a trade, with stops. It's possible that this flu is different then SARS or Bird Flu, and in which case the selling is going to be justified, but I've just seem this far too many times over the years to know that you're better off finding fades then you are pressing a short on this type of news. Hopefully that turns out to be the case. Honestly, I would be remiss if I shorted stuff and hoped that a pandemic really occurred killing 10,000s of people. Sorry, but as much as I want to make money for you guys, I prefer to have some dignity and compassion for my fellows. There are plenty of opps to make money, 1000s dying isn't a good way thing to be rooting for, for me. I remember 9/11 and we were way short and I donated every blood dollar I made being short from that. Hey, hopefully I don't have the freakin' thing! That would suck bad. You can all short me then I guess! :)

Sectors to watch on a gap down for a trade;

Stuff listed above already

Again, I would avoid financials here. They should bounce as well if we do get a bounce, but I think they will underperform. Also watch some technology stocks like AAPL. Remember that most techs aren't affected by flus! Capesh?

We live in scary times, it's good to keep your cool and keep rocking. Sorry I wasn't around much today, I was at more doctors. The good thing is, I am doing my part to stimulate the medical economy! Hehe.!

Tuesday it'll be more of the same but you have some ideas here. Remember also that FOMC runs Tuesday and Wednesday and we USUALLY run into that, so again, good shot we at least get a nice longside trade. I'm pretty neutral here, we just look tired to the upside, but even Monday its not like we got smoked, so investors are reluctant to sell still. So, its a draw with leaning having to be to buying the dips until it doesn't work anymore.

Hope you are all safe and sound and staying away from Swines! Lord knows there are a lot of them these days!

Oh, fyi for those that participated in the new infomercial taping, we should be airing end of May or latest early June. It's looking great and we thank you again for participating! Ka-chingo!




mauiman said...

That would really suck if you had swine flu. But, I did email you saying BEWARE OF THE SWINE!!! Im sure you'll test negative.

MichaelAngelis said...

Thanks Waxie! Take care. Get well soon!

In Debt We Trust said...

If the flu is over-hyped then agriculture would be a good buy on a dip. Pork bellies lock limit down and grains trending downwards? Seems a bit too over-reactive to me.

Jim Murphy said...

Hi Waxie,
Hope the Doctor was able to tell you that you don't have "swine flu". Please let us know the results when convenient. Thanks. ps: your market comments were not what I wanted to hear but they were what I needed to hear. Now we're in resistance again so I'm still holding several May options that we picked up earlier. Guess your still holding them too. murf