Thursday, April 16, 2009

Superdy Duperdy Day!

VERY nice day all around! See, we give a class and I learn from myself! Hehe!

Thanks to all who attended the class yesterday, we had over 1300 people who signed up. I'm pretty sure that's top 10 all-time for us in terms of signups for an online class. I always enjoy teaching, hopefully a lot of you got a lot out of it.

Today was a perfect example of some of the things I discussed yesterday. We had that typical choppy morning and then we zoomed near the close and then we pulled back a bit into end of day. I had a nice monster day, we played AAPL pretty heavy early and called the April $115 calls in the $4s, and we sold 1/2 at $8s for a SICK intraday gain! I'd say "I'm back!" but I am supersticious and don't want to piss off the trading gawds!

We also caught GE for a nice scalp. Pick your spots in this market and you will RULE!

Tomorrow should be interesting and very choppy. A gap UP should be an easy fade, we are definately getting very toppy here. I feel a down day, so that's the way I'll lean. Obviously news will rule this market as usual, and we have to watch the pin action.

You want to look at stuff that gaps over or under a key strike price. For example, if GS gaps up to $122 and the market gaps up, I would look to fade it short.

We will probably gap down unless GE and C say something that surprises people to the upside.

If I'm right and we chop around, I would be very careful, as I discussed last night in the free class, be careful not to overtrade. It's friday, its options expiration day, there's a lot of manipulation in the marketplace. Look for those strike price pins.

Next week is the true test of this rally. We're right smack dab in the middle of earnings, AAPL and others report (a lot of others), and we're nearing 900 on the S & P. The question is, do stocks like AAPL get bought when they are up 50+% in a short period of time? Do the banks keep going higher on expected earnings and into the phoney, and I do mean PHONEY "stress stupid" tests?

If they can, then we may have a move much higher as investors pile in. I think more likely we get a pause that is probably buyable. Remember, sentiment means everything in the market. Right now there is a buy the dip mentality. For a long long time it was sell the rally mentality. My trading theory is that you should not try to pick tops or bottoms, you only get one of them. By that I mean, when sentiment is positive you should buy the dips because you'll only be wrong one time buying the dips in a bullish market. Reverse holds for selling rallies in a bear mode. AND, more importantly, bear modes usually last for a while, as do bull modes so you can catch 20 or 30 or more potentially trending moves, but when sentiment changes you only get that one move so you are betty off going WITH the tape, and not against it, capesh?

Thanks again again for all the well wishes, I am starting to feel a little better and look forward to being 100% over the next few weeks. EVerything in life is a process.

ANd, its ALL good! Rock on, make sure to not overtrade, that's an order!

And, most of all - RULE!


P.S. FYI, I appreciate all the suggestions for women, hehe, but you should all know by now that I like to make fun of myself. I'm ok all around. :)


Mike said...

Hi Waxie:

I have just read the news that citigroup beated analysts' earnings estimates. It appears that all major banks posted or will post better-than-expected earnings. I just have the feeling that government and those wall street analysts are mutually assisting each other. The government throws money out like there is no tomorrow, and those analysts bring their forecasts so low so that all major banks will easily beat estimates. This game is getting very very dirty.

I feel so bad and sad for those innocent investors. Investors that invested in the US companies before 2008, and got crushed before they had a chance to bail themselves out.

Now, everything appears to be better than expected. Can you share your thoughts on how government and those institutions will manipulate the stock market? Will the so called "sell in May, and go away" be realized this time?


mauiman said...

This sounds about right...this is basically the same thing your talking about: