Friday, April 03, 2009

WRONG...

Just so I don't get accused that I don't say when I'm wrong - I was DEAD wrong. I thought the banks would (I still think they will, but timing is everything and my timing was clearly wrong) would sell the news.

Frankly, they did yesterday. FAZ was up for us off the open as called. HOWEVER, the market is stronger, at least after two days.

I lost money yesterday fighting the tape, it does happen. We did sell as I thought we would, but the overall market was stronger then I thought it would be.

Having said that, right now today I made it back and we had a VERY nice day today.

OK, so there ya go. I certainly was wrong about GS, whilst I think its insane, clearly I'm in the minority. Of course, I haven't been short GS (I was long it for a trade recently) in a while (I had a few puts which I sold this am) so it hasn't hurt me, but I just wanted to mention it.

OK, there ya go, my "bad" for the week, it happens, I'm certainly not perfect and I do have losing days, even losing weeks. As a trader I try to control my losses so they are smaller then my gains, thats what good traders do. This year I am up a lot of money. Last year I made a helluva lot of money.

Today we caught IGT, very nice trade! That's what we do, we trade and most of the time we make money. Sometimes, I am wrong. Having said all this, FAZ is basically down about .20 cents from the entry yesterday, maybe .30 worst case.

Market is not up much from the open yesterday, for all the hoopla, we are not up big enough to make a real dent. Having said THAT, hehe, I would wait and see what shakes out next week before reentering. Psychology is a very important thing and right now buying the dips is working. Next week? Well, we shall see. REALITY and market reality are two very different things. Mark to market is HEALTHY for any market, getting rid of it does NOT help banks in the long term, it just scams investors into thinking things are better then they are.

Gee, hmm, not sure, but didn't we just go through that? Isn't that why we are in the shape we are in now? Yeah, I thought so. 'Nuff said!

Look for laggards, stocks that haven't participated as much, those are the ones that will get money next week if we keep going.

See, I am wrong sometimes! :)

RULE!

Waxie

6 comments:

FACTOR R said...

waxie

fine we did not sell the news ,ok not end of the world my question is i know what you think about banks! but i am lost and now everyone or almost everyone saying that we are in bull market???came on without a good earning? retail are dead here waxie !i am talking to a friends that work at car dealer ,SEARS ,LOWES ,HOME DEPOT and on and on sales are down big time so without a good earnings ,a little bit of inflation and jobs how people(CNBC ,CRAMER and another all of those smart ass) can tell us that we are good now !! bull market is here ! I would love that you go deep here and talk everything that you fell and see !! what's really going on here i guess this is the not the great depression but the great manipulations !! i guess yes you can be wrong but i believe you are honest and speak with honest i am still ninja member and love to the room and i am stick with no matter what !now when the government will open this black box call banks ? cause secretary gaidner or whatever his name is told not even 2 weeks ago that banks are gonna need more money so why american people still put a money on this banks ? they are already having a lot from us and ok we are over 8000 points and 10,000 points wow this is a crazy surreal well i guess now when we have another down turn it will gonna go under 5000 and will hurt more and more people but those one that gonna het hurt now i will not gonna be sad or feel for then because they are the real sucker hope hear from you !!


Ricardo Magalhaes

In Debt We Trust said...

USD/JPY broke 100 today. Risk is back - for a while anyway. Central bankers pumping trillions into the credit mkts is having some effect. Especially the Japanese govt debasing their currency by OPENLY buying the Nikkei.

Beamer Dog said...

Waxie, what is your take on SRS. Looks like KIM pulled the old "dillute in order to raise capital" game today and made the entire REIT sector jump. I believe that it is a knee jerk reaction and they are delaying the inevitable. Your take?

mauiman said...

I was wrong too. I thought for sure we'd sell off after the mark to market news. oh well. Maybe next week...
A GM bankruptcy could trigger the sell off as well..if it ever comes.

sun said...

Waxie, you got to listen to this

http://www.pbs.org/moyers/journal/04032009/watch.html

Stock Stalker said...

Waxie,

You're not wrong. You just violated one of your principles: "Potential"... (Read from one of your books). Nobody still knows what the value of the companies are post-mark-2-market decision. In other words, the market still has "potential" to go up indefinitely, until the hard facts come out in issued statements from the companies (aka earnings reports and updates).

Stock Stalker