Wednesday, December 03, 2008

Wow, you guys are more bearish then me!

Hehe! I got a TON of emails from you guys saying how I'm wrong and we'll see new lows in December. Wow, tell ya, used to be I'd get that many emails when I was bearish, now I get them when I am "bullish" or at least less bearish! Hehe! Well, ok, thing is, we VERY easily could see new lows, but just remember that nothing ever goes in a straight line and typically by this time most fund managers have dumped their unwanted losers. I know, I know, a lot is being written about how redemptions are going to dump the market into year end, and like I said, it very well may happen, I just don't see the advantage here of being overly bearish. Remember, I've been bearish the whole entire trip DOWN! I've had my best year in a long time, made a TON (more than a ton actually) this year and nothing goes in a straight line. So, yeah, we very well may go to new lows, but I am not so sure, and I think at least you are 50/50 here as a bear into Obama's inaugeration. The markets worship the next President and every time he opens his mouth we rally. Do you think we'll see tankage into the HOPE that he turns things around? There's a little over a month until he is sworn in. IF we do tank here, great, we'll catch the bounce into that, but my guess is that the lows have been see into year end baring some news they can't shrug off. That's possible, but there's a lot of people buying stuff and a lot of shorts covering, and again - nothing goes in a straight line. So, my point here mainly is to get you off the idea that you should just short at will, as though we can't ever rally. Market isn't likely going to zero and if it does then it means the world blew up and we're looking for Omega Man! In the meantime, I stick with my call and do not recommend being invested here long or short, I think CASH here, trading intraday and short swings is your best bet. Stay nimble. Trust me, I'm not going out and buying stocks, I just think at some point you have to take profits and wait for better entries. Already FSLR and others are providing nicer entries. Hopefully they get another push higher, that'd be awesome and we can then get back in when the time is "right" and ride them down further.
Did you guys know that Booyah heads "Charitable Trust" started the year with roughly $4.4 MIL and now has under $2.5 MIL? Maybe we should all send his charitable trust some charity! Sure as hell needs it! Amazing that people actually watch a guy who is potentially the worst stock picker in the world. Booyaherica! In Booyah we trust! CNBC runs this whole campaign around a guy who is down 50% on the year! He's underperforming the market! That's horrid, dudes, horrid! I'm moving to Kudlowmerica, its a funnier place to live! Don't get overly bearish, or bullish folks. Remember that opinions don't make a trader money, detachment and egolessness do!



1 comment:

FACTOR R said...

Waxie ,

I have a question ..of course the market just a change directions but we still far away to enter in a bull market no doubt about that and I believe we can not be crazy now to short or by put and lose a money right ? but here it is my question Waxie you know all this CNBC crew say all the time GS will be ok the are very smart ! never lose money and never will they are so smart ..blablabla blablabla ...My point is all thise people that worked in GS they are in high place now , you know that Paulson and almost all of his assistant worked at GS and he still thinking those people(his assistant) are the best!!(sure they are look how massy) this thing about GS that it is almost like a unanimous thing no one talk bad about GS and when Warren Buffett loaned the money to then and I have to say, you were the only one that sad "dude he loan that money" no one else see this ? no one sad anything !! Waxie , Cramer that also worked at GS and has in his portfolio GS ,in his book stay rich he says that GS it is one of best broker/bank to invest and if you remember i bet you do the day that Mr Buffett loaned the money to GS Cramer went in the air and sad that Mr Buffet know what he is doing it is a grat place to put a money !

Bottom line Waxie ? well we all know that information it is the most powerful thing in wall street and I am studying the bank sector and all of our banks are in bad shape and you again are the only one that say loud and clear GS has no business it is over done !!! but there people out there that say GS will be back to 100 a share oh God Waxie sad thing is your voice it is not loud as those people voices and I am scare about that sad , cause not everyone has accesses of information there are people out there that still believe in those nuts guys ! that say GS will go back up again and this is almost a big manipulation that we saw already happened in wall street and it is happened again I guess it is good get free money from taxpayer but sometimes it is even better has "friends" everywhere in highest place ,media and God knows where else ! they are trying to keep GS stand ! does not matter for then if people are going to lose a money more and more and now what I see is people that lost money there are trying to get that back this is sad !am i wrong here waxie ?