Monday, December 01, 2008

The market, and the upcoming Symposium on Dealing with Crisis...

OK, first off thank you so much for all the feedback and ideas on dealing with asset protection and crisis. I think I got tentative bookings from some very cool people today to speak at this event. I'm figuring late January, early February, stay tuned...

The market is obviously very unstable. A lot of the buying at the end of last week was due to end of month window dressing, very light holiday trading and vastly oversold markets. Today's selling was on much higher volume and frankly there were no buyers to be found anywhere. The good thing is, this should set us up nicely for the January Effect class we're giving December 10th, you should all sign up for it, there is a money back guarantee on the list if it loses.

The problem is, we continue to sell off so easily and yet you have all these total ridiculous pundits saying that we're putting in a "bottoming process"! What the F are you talking about? Really? 680 point drops are part of the bottoming process? In what alternate universe as you talking about? HELLO! HELLO! This isn't a bottoming process, there is absolutely no shot we have seen any kind of bottom long term. To keep saying it doesn't make it true! Today we learned that we've been in a recession since December 2007! Wow, amazing, I'm SHOCKED! I've only said that since January 2008! My gawd, it's like I'm living in a Kafka novel sometimes! Best was then they all said that the average recession only lasts 16 months, so we should be buying stocks NOW, since March is when we should come out of this! ROFLMAO! Now I am hullucinating! Or, they are, they must be smoking CRACK or eating Shrooms or something. Are you nuts? March we are going to come out of the recession? ROFLMAO! I wisht hat were even possible, but that is the DUMBEST thing I've heard yet! Sometimes (most times) I can't watch TV all day without taking some kind of aspirin. There's no one on earth with 1/2 a brain who would make these types of proclamation. Yet, these people get their own shows! Yes, we'll be out of the recession by March! Yup, you right, 100%. Oy vey!

Watch MA and V here, they both look like they are going to chuck it. Even before today I felt that credit cards were the next shoe to drop. Who can afford to pay MA 10 to 20% interest anymore? We are moving through a deflationary period where people will smartly SAVE MONEY, not spend money and take credit at those types of rates and if that is the case then MA will see my $50 or less target sooner rather than later. V should see $20s if I'm right. Timing is everything, though and I haven't called them yet! So,,,,we'll see. Oil looks like it wants a lot lower, pretty amazing the demand destruction. Best thing for AMericans to do is save and the real silver lining is people are saving and hopefully will continue to do so. The government, ironically, wants people to spend money and not save! Oy.

GM, F on the hill tomorrow trying to steal more taxpayer money. I think there's a trade on GM, but we'll see. Was hoping it would rally harder into the bailout that is almost sure to come so we could short it. Now we'll see what happens!

Best booyah today! Says C was good deal for government, and seemed to incinuate that C might be a worthwhile investment. Amazing, this is same guy who recommended you buy BSC at $70s or $80s, said WB was one of his Fortress Four, and has been DEAD WRONG the whole way down. Yes, buy C, its a screaming buy! NOT! We had it with calls and made a MINT, but long term this thing aint going up in my opinion. Couldl it see $10 to $12? Yup, it sure could, but it could also see .10 cents or .12 cents! (or .01 cents or .012 cents).

I'm wondering, if I was ever on Kudlow's show, would he call me a GREAT AMERICAN? He seems to call anyone who agrees with him that. What is a great American anyway? I tell ya, whenever Paulson speaks we tank, hehe, its pretty funny, jeez. The guy is like the Grim Reaper! Hank, let me help ya here, bud, when you LIE constantly, no one believes ya! Therefore when you say your BS that everything is coming up roses, people get POed and disgusted and sell. Of course, what will happen here is the government is going to announce another stimulus package, send the market up again and then we'll sell that as well. Then Obama will get ready for taking office and we'll rally into that and then we'll sell that. Has anyone but me noticed that we sell every piece of news? I'm watching Cuddley bear now, everyone says we are closer to the bottom and now is a good time to buy! I guess I'm the crazy one, cause I just don't get how anyone with half a brain would think this is a market that is almost bottomed. I guess it is, I mean, its closer to a bottom now then it was when it was 14,000, or 12,000, or 10,000, or 9000, or 8500! Oy, Cuddy just said it again! I can't take it, he says we're 4 months away from being out of the recession! I can't take it, please someone help meeeeeeeee!!! OK, so now, let me give you my take here for tomorrow. I think best thing would be we gap down hard and then reverse. We may gap UP, though, and that should be fadeable for a trade at least. I'm hoping we get another leg down, maybe get below 7800 area and then try to get a move into year end for us and rock with the January Effect list!

In the meantime, just remember - don't believe the hype and get suckered into investing, folks, we are no where near a bottom. What's gonna happen when we get to 4500 or lower you ask? They will all say the same exact things! Ever hear the saying "even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while" or "even a broken clock is right twice a day". I think both are appropriate in this case. I'm gonna be back on air soon. I've decided it's time for reality to be brought to the airwaves. Can you guys do me a favor? Just send a note to all TV stations not to carry what Paulson says? Just ignore him, maybe he'll go away then, ya know?


Michael "Waxie" Parness


hopkins950 said... mentioned

MA and V to go down.....

what about AXP,,,,that looks

to go down even bigger than the


"Beating your competitors to

a buck...PRICELESS" !

Waxie said...

Yes, AXP is a goodie, as is DFS. Timing is always key. The good and the bad about MA and V is they are volatile., If I thought we would just head straight down I'd say AXP gives you a more stable straight line to single digits. MA should get you more points obviously and V same. Really its taste and time horizons.

MarkB said...

A good stock I am looking to short sometime soon is STRA (Strayer Education). I will do this when teh time is right, looks like it can go down hard possibly. A good trade I notice is that whenever that clown Louis Navellier sends out his emails to buy stocks with the symbols given away, they are good shorts. Eventually, a good technique I use is to watch stocks run up to $200-$400 then get sold off all year after their MACD goes over 30 usually on a weekly chart for a nice steady short. Ex (FSLR, MA, GS, GOOG, TIE, ACH). I have currently been shorting RAH.

good luck guys

Bill said...

Waxie, Ahh, The nightly news is as refreshing as being smacked in the face with a shovel and then being told , That didn't hurt! Of coarse not, they aren't the one's being smacked! Kudlow is a rude old man to his guest and caters to his butt kissers. Anyone that tries to tell the real of reality gets cut off or doesn't get much air time. He butts in on everyone though and try's to over talk them, What a Rude man. (I'm being nice with rude). It's funny that they don't show booyah's track record for calls for the year. But of coarse, Im sure it would show, BROKE on the correct meter. Why do they go on? They only make themselves worse by the day and everyone else broker. People like to be positive and are looking for answers, but don't go there for that unless your good at deciphering Lie's. If you can do that then you are finding the truth. Good Day!