Thursday, December 18, 2008

When do I wake up to down 2000+ on the DOW?

I tell ya, this market just feels like its waiting for a "bomb" to drop EVERY day. Even when we go up one day its like got this eery feeling to it, this ominous feeling that we're going to wake up and BOOM, the whole market is done for.

Now, its unlikely that we will wake up and the market will be all gone. But, I don't think its unlikely that we will wake up one day next year and be down 1000+, and probably even 2000 at some point. I hope I'm wrong, but the option activity still points to some major bad stuff happening. We are in tough times, folks, we have to buckle down.

For those of you that have emailed about the CRISIS SYMPOSIUM 2009, as soon as I have more info I will post it here. I am still working on it, so we'll see what shakes.

As far as the market, man, this is tough, I tell ya. I thought we'd bounce a bit late day, obviously not. This is why you need to take profits RELIGIOUSLY in this market, you can't sit on your positions and say "well, I think it'll go up...or down".

Yeah, it may go your way eventually, but in the meantime you may be cracked. I've been cashing in and then reloading and then cashing in and THAT is how you make money in this market. We'll see what happens tomorrow, it's Options Expiration day which should get us some whippy action. If we're down late day watch for a late late day squeeze into the close. Also, those of you who follow us for a while know if you watch what I call PIN ACTION then you can make some quick cash with very little risk. Look at C for example, stock closed today at $7.43. Baring a very big move either way, which I doubt, C will probably close at $7.50 strike price. That way the market makers and big players can cash out both sides of that straddle. They can sell both sides for about .30 cents. While that seems like a horrible play, its not bad at all. .30 cents on a $7.43 stock is a helluva one day return and your risk is only there is the stock closes lower than $7.13 and higher than $7.73. That's a big move, and if they can pin it and close C right at $7.50 then they collect about 4% in a day. Not a bad return on investment.

It also informs your intraday trading so you don't get caught. If you see GS at $80.95 at 3:15 then you probably want to short it or stand down. Why? Cause though not every stock closes at a strike, many do (check it out tomorrow to see for yourself) and its unlikely that from 3:15 to 4 pm on no news GS would make it to $85, so its a bad long more than likely, but short you could possibly justify since you may get that .95 cents and have a shot to get slightly lower.

I'm totally neutral here. The only thing keeping me from being bullish for next week is that so many people think we rally as well and that scares me. So, make sure your stops are set either way and be careful not to chop suey your acct! That's a good way to get all cracked and chopped up.

In the meantime, lets hope we don't get a down 2000 day anytime, well....ever!


Michael WAXIE Parness

FYI - CNBC ran a show tonight called the Biggest Scam Ever or something, dealing with the Madoff Ponzi scheme. See, I thought the $700 BIL bailout was the biggest scam ever! Hehe, shows you what I know!

Oh, couple people asked me about Gold again. I own a very small amount of Gold, most of it I bought at $275 an ounce when I called it long years ago. I think Gold may actually get a bullish move next year, but before that we are still in deflationary period, so I wouldn't rush out to buy bullion just this second. ANd, yes, I do change my mind all the time, thats what traders do. I made a lot of money trading GOld futures recently, I trade stuff both ways and I try not to get stuck on ideas. Open mind = profits. Closed = death and broke!

AND, I am still bearish on GOld overall. See? Mixed messages, thats cause I'm neutral on the thing, hehe!


1 comment:

Melissa Raimondi said...

January Effects still on strong? I really wanna get short again if we get another lame rally...