Wednesday, December 03, 2008

THE BOTTOM IS IN!

FOr the year. Even I think we've seen the low for 2008. I think any decent pullback here is a BUY BUY BUY. I keep getting emails asking me about shorting stocks and do I still like FSLR to $50. YES, I do! But, I wouldn't short it here, just read my post from last night as to why. Traders get killed fighting the market and right now shorts are covering and longs are scouring for so-called bargains. Plus, Booyah still hasn't said that the bottom is in off his last/most recent absurd call, and he is ALWAYS a great contrarian indicator. It's funny, today he said at 2:30 that you can't own RIG and SLB and both closed over $1.50 higher by days end then when he said that. He is such a great contrarian indicator, you gotta love it!
Today's gap down was a GIMME! One of the easiest buys ever! Off yesterday there was no shot we were going to gap down over 100 pts and then keep going. YOU need to know how to read a tape. I hope we gap down again tomorrow, its another guy. Right now the goal is to find laggards and buy pullbacks. Until that changes that's my plan into year end. Yeah, we'll get overbought in a jiff and play the short side, and we'll always trade short intraday, but right now I think trying to TOP PICK is a mistake. Monday we had that massive selloff and we played that, but if you look at market action here I think right or wrong its foolish to try to short a market that seemingly wants to go higher. Bad news can strike any day and rock us, but even that is being shrugged off. I will be surprised if we aren't at a yearly low. And, you know I am the biggest Bear there is! So, stop asking me if you should short FSLR. Go ahead, be my guest, I have no interest in swinging shorts here, I would much rather be making moolah on CY long for a January Affect, then trying to figure out when FSLR will top out. It might be tomorrow, but then so what I'll miss a move or two, thats ok, there will be much easier entries and much easier time to be strong to the short side, in my opinion now isn't one of them. Funny thing is, Bill Miller hasn't been right for a long time, but people respect him, hehe. Guy says the bottom is in, this is the same guy who's fund owned ABK and MBI and all the banks and is CRUSHED! Him calling a bottom is like booyah calling one! Hopefully we get some follow through, like I said a nice gap down again would be an easy fade. We probably don't go very far tomorrow either way, sideways action, so if so look for laggards and stocks that may break out. MGM, LVS are two to watch, I have a big list this year, but you'll have to sign up for the JANUARY EFFECTS class! Class will give both stocks and options, 10 stocks and at least 5 option plays. I think it's gonna rock! Email - sally@trendfund.com for more info and to sign up! Sign up NOW, the class is gonna get crowded fast! RULE! Waxie

4 comments:

mdp129 said...

Waxie, you think a stock like LVLT has a chance to pull out from under a buck?

Erik28 said...

Waxie,

Do you see the fund managers dumping the UNDERPERFORMERS hard till yrs end?

AKA: goog, gme, gs

Im not too surprised you are calling a trading bottom for the broad market. If we take out Friday's candle, i would be impressed (for the bulls) but not yet.

I remain short GOOG,GME,GS.

Erik28 said...

we hit 52wk lows on every major index by the END of next week.


GS to 40 after earnings.


(imo)

RayFunRelax said...

Although I am know a lot less than You do, but I respectfully disagree and think that December will be a very bad month for the following two main reason.

#1. If you look at 3 month chart of IWM, SPY, QQQQ, DIA, etc... we are under the monthly down slopping trend line (support). It will probably (this week) bounce off the trend line (support) like it did in the beginning of November, plunging down to new lows.

#2. I read in yahoo news that in December there will be massive mutual fund and hedge fund redemption (forced selling). Here is the article:

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/106201/Ignore-the-Stock-Market-Until-February;_ylt=AnWvVpnss43B5CCb48RpvPtO7sMF

Ray