Thursday, December 04, 2008

OK, I hate to be all doom and gloom, but...GRIM REAPER WAXIE is here...

Today during the hearings for this RIDICULOUS nonsense bailout of dead companies we hda the first signs of discention when there were protestors heard. Perhaps they will do what they should and let them fail, the same way they should have let the banks fail. I will make this prediction right here and right now - at least 50% of ALL banks will be NATIONALIZED within the next 12 to 18 months. In fact, probably all of them will be. I've said similar things in the past, but I want to be succinct. Nearly every bank is DONE. The crazy thing is that that sector is WORTHLESS. Let me tell you something, this is what I call a CRACK market. Look at the energy sector, the prize sector to a TON of fund managers who keep trying to bottom pick it. Oil may fall to $20, people have no idea, they think "oh, that's great!" Yeah, it is, consumers will benefit from that for sure, but we are in a DEPRESSION, not a recession! I am so tired of hearing about recessions, let's call this what it is. For months everyone asked "so, are we in a recession?" Then they get a stupid report that says "yeah, the recession started in December 2007!" Duh, wow, that's amazing, who knew? OK, fine, but now the notion is that we at some point will come out of the recession and you want to be positioned for when that happens. Folks, I hate to be the grim reaper of REALITY, but we aren't coming out of this, we are in a DEPRESSION that will last for several years. The notion that we are anywhere near a place where anyone should be buying a single share of stock. I guess you can buy SKF, DUG, etc. which are Ultra SHORT ETFs, I would approve of that! Today was a nice day, we traded long side early after the gap down and the gap worked well, then we bought FAZ (3 x's short the financials) and shorted MA and rocked on the short side. This is a total TRADERS market, and that's all. Investors are going to be very upset when they realize that they should have sold, that there is NO SHOT we are EVER going back to highs. Yes, I said it - we will NEVER see DOW 14,000 again. We will never see Nasdaq 5000 again. If you think we will, you're on crack with the market. It's not happening. DOW has a better shot of seeing 500 then it does of seeing 14,000. Nasdaq will see below 500, so that's a given, and it has a better shot of that then seeing 2500 again. Even that is unlikely EVER. And, before you say "but last night you said we had seen the bottom for 2008, and I do believe that that is likely, but like I've said that there's no way I would buy stocks long for more than a trade short term. You couldn't pay me enough to do that. The market is and remains and will remain VASTLY overpriced until its under 5000 and even then we'll have to see. And, its NEVER COMING BACK, so don't think it is. As always, I hope I'm wrong, I would love us to rally hard, get to 12,000! That'd be so awesome! It's not going to happen, but it would be great to get emails saying how horrible I am, hardy har har! Since we trade we really love the market to move both up and down, and the higher we go, the lower we can go and vice versa, and that's why you are a SUCKER if you invest. S - U - C - K - E - R. The best from today's hearing was when they asked the CEO's of the "Big (SMALL) 3 automakers" how they got their and how they plan on getting back, and they all explained how they drove and how they had to wake up early to drive back and drive til midnight! Wow, that's SO HORRIBLE! My gawd! I feel SO bad for them! Poor poor bastards! Wow, they really sacrificed for the good of the country! Wow, I am so touched by this, you have NO idea! ANd, I'm serious guys and gals, I really am, I'm not being sarcastic, I am so moved by their gestures and their empathy with the "common" folks like us! Even better? The ads they AGAIN spend MILLIONS on in the papers to promote their BS quest for our money. "If you can bail out Wall Street, you should bail out Main Street!" Really? Oh, yeah, right, I get it, because they stole our money once they should steal it again! Thing is, the only thing about the banking system is that that really does impact everyone. The automakers? Please, you can sugarcoat it all you want, it does NOT impact MOST people in this country and it certainly isn't TOO BIG TO FAIL! All they say is the same BS "this would be a catastrophe!" Yeah, sure it would. I don't get how people are so dumb. So, the reason why they "can't" allow them to go bankrupt is that people won't buy cars from a bankrupt company, it'll ruin confidence in the financing!. Really? HOw come Chrysler went bankrupt and came out of it OK back in the '70s? Even better, RIGHT NOW who has confidence in GM or F? RIGHT NOW who is buying their cars? RIGHT NOW this is total nonsense. They 100% can and should be allowed to go bankrupt. That is the only real solution that won't lead to chaos. And, they have these absurd ideas that "oh, we'll take $1 salaries!" Great, you know what, I'll run my business for FREE! Just let me make $100 MIL for a year and I'll take $1 salary! What a joke, they really think the American people are idiots. They must. It's pure insanity. Yes, they are sacrificing so much! And, oh, the unions, wow, what a sacrifice they are making! Too big to fail? Yeah, ok, how much weight do I need to gain to be "too big to fail"? If I gain like 50 pounds, am I too big to fail then? Can I apply for $37 BILLION with a B? Hell, I'll take $370,000 to gain 50 pounds! For $37 MIL I'll gain 150 and for $37 BIL I will become the fattest man on earth! I WILL BE TOO BIG TO FAIL!!!
I hope we rally to 10,000. Please please please. FREE MONEY short, it'll be raining money on us. I am like the government these days - I AM PRINTING MONEY! I feel like every day I am getting repaid for having to watch booyahhead and all these other knuckleheads talk about how this or that will happen and the market will go up! As you know by now, the fact that the market can't go up on it's own is the #1 issue and the #1 reason that its TOAST long term. You can only be on a respirator for so long, at some point they have to take you off and when they do chances are, the market is DEAD. So says the GRIM REAPER they call - WAXIE! RULE baby, rule! We're starting several initiatives;, The Short Trader, and we have the January Effects which you all know about. We sold 1/2 our CY today for a HUGE gainer! Nice and sweet, babies, nice and sweet! Let's see what shakes from here! It's time to RULE THE FREAKIN' MARKETS WITH US!


FACTOR R said...

Waxie , Cramer is a very good friend of Ed Lamprer and again and his book he recommend SHLD for life , and good know if he has a partnership with Mr. Lamprer , because was insane say that SHLD is a buy it is going to fell just like GS !! Congratulations on the new service I will be in !!

ajit said...

How these auto makers will recover? 1. Due to recession, there are very few buyers of new cars and will be like that for long time.
2. Once someone switches to Japanese car, he/she does not buy again GM/F/Chrysler. And so to survive, they need to come up with product superior to Japanese car.
Whatever money they are given will be waste.

Bill said...

Your gonna have to post this, Frame It, (Dumbest call ever) Tonite by Your favorite Booyah, I quote ( It will be a V shape recovery). RMFAO! OK!

Melissa Raimondi said...

Heya Waxie, you are AMAZING! I look forward to reading your posts and sometimes read em 4 times! I have made SO MUCH CASH in the last few months and paid off all my debt and have a nice chunk of profit sitting in my trading account making me even more money! It's so freeing! I wanted to thank you ;)
Oh, and I totally agree that they auto makers need to fail. Maybe if they fail, someone with brains will come out and start a car company (cuz there would be no more competition) that actually makes a GOOD car. Maybe they could revitalize the american auto industry...if there is enough people to buy anything in this crazy depression...who knows! I think it's for the best. The old needs to pass away for the new ideas to blossom in the future.

traderlady said...

Two mistakes in your ranting about the auto companies: 1. The auto companies didn't pay for that NY Times ad today, the UAW did; 2. Chrysler never went bankrupt when they got the loan guarantees under Iacocca. How would you propose a reorganizing bankrupt company get debtor in possession financing in today's lending climate?

Dov said...

Waxie, I've been following your blog with great interest for quite some time now. It's a great read and very educating. Thanks for providing your thoughts for free on the web!

However, I've noticed that even though I've read all your posts, I don't seem to be able to explain to others why the market is DEAD and why nearly every bank is DONE. I would appreciate if you could give me the simple facts, why the market is never coming back, EVER, and why we're now going to have a depression. I need some ammo when I talk to the bulls.

The bulls keep telling me so many compelling reasons for why it's not different this time. And when we compare statistics from the great depression with today, the situation seems quite different. For example, during the great depression, GDP fell 29%, wages fell 40%, unemployment was 25%, there was no unemployment insurance, social security or FDIC, there was massive deflation, the money supply was reduced by 1/3, there were 10,000 bank failures and the top income tax rate rose from 24% in 1929 to 64% in 1932 and eventually rose to 79% in 1936.

To me, the unprecedented negative sentiment at the moment does not seem to reflect reality. For most people I know, both in the US and in Europe, it's mostly business as usual, unless you've been laid off. And even then, it's not the end of the world. This does not seem like the great depression. Unemployment is also still quite low historically speaking. And for most people I know, that their 401(k) is down doesn't really change much either.

I would be grateful for your thoughts on this matter.


beach2788 said...

Waxie, Today , Friday, the Bears threw everthing but the kitchen sink at the market. A complete deluge of bad news, YET the market went up, its only 2pm now lets see the close.

beach2788 said...

Well the bulls KICKED ASS, like Waxie said before everyone is so giddy for rally.

I guess we will hear how Waxie, faded the gap and went long?
I know some of you will suspect Waxie just got stopped out of his shorts, did not really expect this.

Waxie said...

Beach, you're wrong and right. I didn't stop out of shorts, I covered most of them at the open and then went long a TON of stuff. Clients made SICK money today. Nailed this thing HUGE! I had an enormous day, this market is PRINTING MONEY. People are nuts not to be trading it, its a very easy market (knock on wood) and every day is like being in a funhouse. NOW is the time to take advantage of this market, you should not be waiting, NOW is the time. Funny thing is, I hear all these pundits saying this is the buy of a lifetime. It's clearly not, but it is the TRADERS MARKET of a lifetime! Part time trading (I went out for lunch to take a meeting about the movie about yours truly which is now casting) I made a SICK amount today. SICK.
So, you are right about that! RULEEEEEEEEEEE!

I will try to get to the rest later. I'm kinda beat for the week. Later.