Monday, December 01, 2008


One more thing, today is the reason why I don't like Gold. I think GOld has a better shot of seeing $400 or $300 then $1200 or $1300. All the gold bugs are wrong in my opinion and its not, for me, a valid investment. EVERYTHING has gone right for Gold to go up pretty much and it is nearer to its lows than its highs. That's not a good sign. That's just my opinion, Gold bugs take this personally, but I think GOld sucks as an investment and would not buy it.



AP said...

Do you mind making another call for the week for Orange Belt since MER didn't work out?

AP said...

Waxie, Do you mind making another call for the week for Orange belt, since MER didn't work out? Thanks.

thomas said...

Gold and gold miners are tradeable like everything else. Nothing goes up in a straight line. Gold is up several hundred percent since the early "2000s, but, if you're a trader and don't understand how it moves, including history and seasonal demands, you'll get smoked for sure. Gold's cousin, silver, is even whippier than gold. Even GOOG "sucks" if you're not familiar with how it trades, and that goes for all the other stuff too, does it not?

Gold was setting up for a good short swing late last week that started today and will likely continue for a week or two. Difference between gold and paper assets is that gold is hard, real, transportable and international so it'll never find zero like the financials. In fact, it meets with heavy physical buying in the 600s and 700s even today because accumulating gold is part of the culture in certain countries around the world. It's buying money at a discount. $300s or $400s? We'll be full of worms when that happens again.

mliu_01 said...

I know you are a great trader. But you are wrong on this one.

You will never see 300 or 400 gold. At least you will not be able to buy one gold coin with that kind of money.

I can bet 1OZ of gold with you on this one. LOL

FACTOR R said...


Now cramer and other are saying that the government are making money with CITIGROUP am I crazy here ! I just wanna know what is behind those statement that those guys on TV making every day ? we should screening more and more they just print more and more money and give away !! wow !!

FACTOR R said...

Waxie please take a look

Sunil said...

there goes booiyah head on being a true long term investor... ALso Waxie how can he predict 211 days to go on housing bottom?
When u do tonite's blog pls comment on the short and long term kindly...

mike w said...

What happens to the dollar which and what happens to us will hinge on how the global recession plays out. Governments will keep doing what they always did, i.e. fighting the last war.

China and the Chinese
The government keeps the yuan devalued to export its way to economic power. They have a tendency toward huge infrastructure projects. If the government tries to jumpstart the economy by export and there are no buyers, they may resort to public works projects and end up with a mass of roads and dams and piles of coal and further environmental impact. People have been moving away from the farms which the gov't. seems to have mismanaged. This, along with the environmental issues and the bureaucratic nature of the beast could mean problems around starvation.

the chinese people maxed out their credit cards and mortgaged their houses to play with their stock market. uh oh.

India seems like a more flexible and possibly more volatile place. The concern here might be how economic fallout interacts with events revolving around pakistan and terrorism and power politics.

Germany, France, and Italy seem to react essentially conservatively to economic and world events along spectra of: despair, emotionality, and cynicism. They are locked together by participation in the eec. They are at once liberal, conservative and isolationist. They do like to slum with american culture but not admit it. They have big box stores and mcd's and racial stuff that they didn't used to have. I would expect them to adhere to conservative models and complain and brood and point the finger and wait it out. I.e., they won't be very constructive and they won't take risks.

England is a little like us, top heavy with financial outfits and over priced real estate encumbered by bad mortgages.

Ireland may have a tough time, but they are seeded with tech and biotech and may recover well.

They came out from under Franco and it seems like the real estate bender took with a vengeance. Banks will fail and buildings will empty. They are probably accustomed to routine misery.

South America and Australia and Canada
are all miners or producers of oil or other commodities. It seems like commodity producers and their currencies are likely to take it on the chin and react according to their national disposition. So long as they don't have a drought, the Australians can fall back on feeding the chinese or whoever else, as might the south american farmers. With the building industry in recession, the rain forests may get a break.

Russia is losing economic status as the price of oil recedes.
Eastern europe will probably wait for better times.

The middle east will continue to produce oil and hot air.

Africa will remain the tail of the world. Ignored until somebody steps on it.

The hope for us and the dollar is that there will continue to be many who are more imprudent and clueless than we and at the same time more lacking in resources, initiative, hope, resolve and general good fortune.

StockJock-e said...

Ive got a little trick for gold, if you look at a chart of gold and a chart of the EURUSD, they are pretty much identical.

Kevin Scobey said...

I agree. Even investors who prefer to own gold will probably be forced to sell it at some point to raise cash, driving the futures price down.