Michael "WAXIE" Parness on FOX News - Cavuto show @ 4 pm EST today!
Please tune in to check out Michael as he gives his 2009 prognostications on Fox News channel w/Neil Cavuto!
See ya there!
TIME: 4 pm EST
DATE = TODAY! (12/31/08)
HAPPY NEW YEAR to ALL!
Michael Parness
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Monday, December 22, 2008
ARMAGEDDON...
I've decided that the world is going to end soon, so I'm going on vacation. My new call is DOW 0.
Gold 0.
In the meantime, I need a break to reenergize, so I'll be gone through the holidays. I wish you all a Happy and Healthy, whatever you believe.
PLEASE do not email me, I'm taking off and won't read them, so you are wasting your breath.
It's really kinda amazing how many people actually think the world is going to end. I mean, I guess its possible, though it seems unlikely, and if that's the case then that's one prediction that if you are right there isn't any way to get a HIGH 5 from anyone! You'll be dead, too!
In the meantime, this market is putrid, and I'm in need of some R & R. If I get up the energy to say something significant I'll do so. You guys know I probably will, I can't keep my mouth shut, hehe!
In the meantime, I take back the 0 call. I'll stick with 4500, then 2500 on the DOW and let a few of us survive. I'm beat, so if the world is gonna end, please make sure that its done while I'm sleeping, I don't really like blood, I might pass out and seeing people melt is a very messy thought.
And, no, I'm not making fun of anyone's belief system, I just don't see the point of predicting the end of the world. It's one of those things that if it happens, well, what can ya do? I've been through worse. The first girl I ever asked out said NO and laughed at me. We were playing Pinball at the Bungalow colony I went to, and I was SO into her. I mean, I asked everyone how I should do it, and everyone was like "dude, she'll say yes, she totally digs you". Well, she clearly didn't and that kinda sucked. She went out with this dude who musta watched a few too many Happy Days episodes cause he had a cigarette pack under his sleeve. He was an "older man". I was like 12 or 13 and this guy, I now know, was a pedifile since he was over 18. I shoulda had his sorry ass arrested back then. If I wasn't so crushed I would have.
So, there you have it, if the world ends, its cool, I've dealt with FAR worse.
Happy Holidays to all and to all a good night!
Oh, one thing, so this chick (she went from being a girl to a chick), so when I was like 19 I was helping a buddy throw parties at a club in NYC and I was working the door and I hear this voice "Michael! Michael!" (that's my real name, I wasn't born a Waxie!). And, so like I turn around and I knew I knew that voice but couldn't place it. Well, there was PT (to protect the innocent I'll refrain from naming names) and she had this big and I mean BIG hairdo and it was ORANGE, I mean BRIGHT orange. And, she had these really big nails. And she runs up to me and hugs me and says that she had always thought about me and regretted not going out with me and she asks for my number and says we should go out.
Me? I said - nah, dudess (well, I didn't say dudess, but you get my drift). I said, nah, that's ok, I'm busy.
And, that's why I'm saying, what goes around, comes around. And, the way she dressed, it was like Michael Jackson on steroids, with BRIGHT organge hair, and really long nails. She even had the gloves.
So, there ya have it. The end of the world don't scare me, but a woman with HUGE BRING ORANGE HAIR WITH REALLY LONG NAILS does!
See ya on the other side,
Michael WAXIE Parness
*Make sure you don't give back your profits in this muck, low volume moves are exaggerated and you don't want to blow hard earned profits in this mucka muck. RULE!
Gold 0.
In the meantime, I need a break to reenergize, so I'll be gone through the holidays. I wish you all a Happy and Healthy, whatever you believe.
PLEASE do not email me, I'm taking off and won't read them, so you are wasting your breath.
It's really kinda amazing how many people actually think the world is going to end. I mean, I guess its possible, though it seems unlikely, and if that's the case then that's one prediction that if you are right there isn't any way to get a HIGH 5 from anyone! You'll be dead, too!
In the meantime, this market is putrid, and I'm in need of some R & R. If I get up the energy to say something significant I'll do so. You guys know I probably will, I can't keep my mouth shut, hehe!
In the meantime, I take back the 0 call. I'll stick with 4500, then 2500 on the DOW and let a few of us survive. I'm beat, so if the world is gonna end, please make sure that its done while I'm sleeping, I don't really like blood, I might pass out and seeing people melt is a very messy thought.
And, no, I'm not making fun of anyone's belief system, I just don't see the point of predicting the end of the world. It's one of those things that if it happens, well, what can ya do? I've been through worse. The first girl I ever asked out said NO and laughed at me. We were playing Pinball at the Bungalow colony I went to, and I was SO into her. I mean, I asked everyone how I should do it, and everyone was like "dude, she'll say yes, she totally digs you". Well, she clearly didn't and that kinda sucked. She went out with this dude who musta watched a few too many Happy Days episodes cause he had a cigarette pack under his sleeve. He was an "older man". I was like 12 or 13 and this guy, I now know, was a pedifile since he was over 18. I shoulda had his sorry ass arrested back then. If I wasn't so crushed I would have.
So, there you have it, if the world ends, its cool, I've dealt with FAR worse.
Happy Holidays to all and to all a good night!
Oh, one thing, so this chick (she went from being a girl to a chick), so when I was like 19 I was helping a buddy throw parties at a club in NYC and I was working the door and I hear this voice "Michael! Michael!" (that's my real name, I wasn't born a Waxie!). And, so like I turn around and I knew I knew that voice but couldn't place it. Well, there was PT (to protect the innocent I'll refrain from naming names) and she had this big and I mean BIG hairdo and it was ORANGE, I mean BRIGHT orange. And, she had these really big nails. And she runs up to me and hugs me and says that she had always thought about me and regretted not going out with me and she asks for my number and says we should go out.
Me? I said - nah, dudess (well, I didn't say dudess, but you get my drift). I said, nah, that's ok, I'm busy.
And, that's why I'm saying, what goes around, comes around. And, the way she dressed, it was like Michael Jackson on steroids, with BRIGHT organge hair, and really long nails. She even had the gloves.
So, there ya have it. The end of the world don't scare me, but a woman with HUGE BRING ORANGE HAIR WITH REALLY LONG NAILS does!
See ya on the other side,
Michael WAXIE Parness
*Make sure you don't give back your profits in this muck, low volume moves are exaggerated and you don't want to blow hard earned profits in this mucka muck. RULE!
Sunday, December 21, 2008
IT'S THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT...
And I feel FINE! REM used to be one of my favorites. Now I'm more of a Hannah Montana dude cause I have no real choice with my girls. I did get to go to Jingle Ball thanks to my buds ZB and SS, and Miley Cyrus wasn't there, neither were Jonas Brothers. Thank Gawd! Nothing personal, but its hard to rock to kids that are 1/3rd my age!
OK, so forget my rather repungnent eclectic musical tastes, which seem to be going downhill the older I get. Forget music, let's talk about the seemingly endless musings about the end of the world, or some variation. I've read some serious stuff, dudes and dudesses! And, I take bunk for being so bearish and doom and gloom? Jeez, louise, I'm like Mr. Smiley Face compared to a lot of people, trust me.
I say DOW 4500, and then I say DOW 2500. I see people with DOW 400. I hear GOLD $100,000 targets. Man o man alive. I'll tell you this, if Gold hits $100,000 we're probably all living with a shotgun by our sides, or eating cochroaches for dinner.
See, ok, I think that there is a possibility of civil unrest, riots, lunacy and horrible devaluation of currency and global crisis. I think, as do some of these other people, that people are going to be VERY unhappy when they realize that basically the government is stealing from them. I think that the more people struggle, the more they get angry, and rightfully so since a lot of what has been and what is being created is due to complete and utter incompetence on the part of our elected officials, the lobbyists that have owned a lot of public policy and legislature, and the corporations that paid themselves off at the expense of the average citizen. (Can anyone believe that MER, MS and GS are "only" paying out 1/2 bonuses when WE freakin' paid for them to still be in business? Who is overseeing this lunacy? It's sickening! These companies would be all bankrupt, but they should get ANY bonus? Government gave them all at least $10 BIL in free money, how come they didn't demand NO bonuses? Bonuses for what? Being worth negative $500 BIL? Sick!)
I think that Hank Paulson will end up in jail, and will end up being blamed (rightfully so) for a lot of what's happened and what will happen. I think eventually there will be demands (rightfully so) that the executives who got the BILLIONS AND BILLIONS in bonuses return that money to the taxpayers who are now going to be asked to cover it. You have no idea how much I dislike Paulson. I'm not one to demonize people, but I think the guy is as close to the Grim Reaper or Beazelbob as you can get. It sucks he's bald, he gives bald guys a bad name! How and why this guy gets any respect, or has a freakin' job is beyond me. It makes me ill.
Do you realize that we're a country that only 2 or 3 weeks ago admitted we were in a recession? Denial is a very dangerous place to live, its impossible to make rational decisions when you are in denial.
I got an email last week saying that I was "just like an environmentalist" who was saying everything that was wrong and offering no answers. I like that, I love that some of you guys go after me, its totally cool, keeps me on my toes. Of course I'll say that I do have some ideas, and I wish someone would listen. From reading a ton of stuff I think there are others with very good and realistic ideas. It's part of what's frustrating. I can't honestly say I have THE answer. I've found that most things in life usually have more than one "answer". I think it's unfortunate we are on this road to what I feel, and many others seem to concur, some pretty well respected economists and people like Jim Rogers and Peter Shiff who have called (as have I) much of what has happened so far.
I have to say, I really thought Obama would go out there and bring on some NEW people, some fresh blood, and yet we've gotten retreads, a bunch of people who are partly responsible for what's gone down up til now, and who seem to only know Keynesian economics. There doesn't seem to be anyone in a place of power that is capable of thinking outside the box. It's extremely frustrating and sad. We are potentially headed down a road that may destroy much of what we've been built on for over 200 years. And, no one seems to be willing to listen to anyone else who may have a different fresh view. Why aren't they holding some sort of open meeting and invite people who are well respected who have a different viewpoint? I just don't get it, and the more we go down this road of throwing more and more money, now standing at about $8.7 TRILLION and counting that's been committed the more we are "pot committed" to a worthless dollar. Do you realize that that much money would probably feed every poor person in the WORLD for a while! A LONG while. It's INSANE.
I've stated what I would do. I'll repeat it again, or the short version. I would let the stock market DIE. I would nationalize the entire banking system and let ALL the banks that are in debt go under, period. Make the shares worthless and then the government really could act as pilot to a meaningful change. If they did that as a start, even now, they would save the roughly $50+ TRIL (or more) that is estimated to be bad and potentially/probably worthless debt on the banking systems debt. There is simply no way they can assume all that debt without bankrupting the entire country and devaluing the dollar anywhere from 50 to 90% in my opinion.
So, by nationalizing the banking system now, rather than throw all that money at it, it would save "us" a ton of money. It would also allow the government to support the housing market organcally by lowering mortgage rates, PLUS they would then REALLY make money because even if they charged 2% interest it would be more than the Discount rate, which now stands at zero. I stated this last week, my feeling is that they are trying to be all things to all people. By doing so they will, I believe, bust everything out. We've thrown a few TRIL at the issue, what have we gotten for it? Yes, I know, the bullish case is that it takes time, it'll work. Ah huh, sure it will. And if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle, right-o! It can't and couldn't work, the banks used it to pay down debt or acquire assets to try to ensure THEIR survival. That's why its already gone, it was gone before the check got there. And, thats why the banks can only free up the credit markets so much. Kinda tough to owe a few TRIL and free up credit! The same way politicians are acting out of fear. Just imagine how much legislation will now be justified because of this, and the Madoff ripoff.
When people are scared they overreact. We saw it after 9/11 when we enacted the Patriot Act, which led to wire tapping and eventually led to justifying torture. Whether you agree or not with that assessment, throughout history human beings do extraordinary things, often not good, sometimes very good, when they are faced with crisis. Some people excel and lead, some live in terror and act out of that fear. Integrity is tough to keep when you are afraid.
And, this is part of the problem with blind faith in anything. Now, see, I'm not immune to fear, or challenges, or even bowing out of my integrity at different moments in my life. I'd like to be, but I'm certainly not perfect. All I can do is keep trying to do better whenever pressed. I feel as though I am pretty good in crisis, I usually keep my cool. Not always, but usually. It's ironic that I'm awesome when its not my own crisis. If the world were to be ending I am pretty sure I can keep my cool. I've thrived under duress many times in my life. Part of doing well in crisis is being prepared. I think thats part of what makes me a good, though imperfect trader.
I've stated here my intentions to put together a CRISIS symposium in a few months. I'm still taking resumes for those of you who feel you have something to offer as an expert. We only have about 6 slots so makes sure you have credentials. I realize some of you may have better ideas then some people with credentials, I sure feel I do. No offense, I'm trying to promote this as something that may potentially get press coverage to hopefully get some outside the box ideas out there. I have two little girls, I don't really want to have to go live underground somewhere and worry that some lunatic puts my girls at risk. If you are interested in participating, or just in potentially attending (it'll be in NYC in May or June 2009) please email;
boogedyshoe@aol.com, and cc me; waxie@trendfund.com
Please send your resume if you feel you have something to offer and would like to be considered for inclusion as an expert in the fields of;
Economics
Security
Psychology of crisis
Spirituality
Homeland security
Medical emergency
Crisis management
or something else you feel would be invaluable. If chosen I'll at least pay your way to NYC.
In the meantime, there you have part of my answer. The banking system in this country is BANKRUPT. The government must sacrifice the stock market to save the rest of the country. They must see that they have now thrown 8.7 TRILLION at the problems and have NOTHING to show for it. NOTHING. In fact, things are getting worse according to all imperial data I have seen. The American people have been lied to, spit on and led astray - its time for the trusted servants who WE employ to have an honest and open discussion and let others in on the process. Until that happens I fear that we are headed down a road that will lead to civil unrest, tax boycotts, the devaluation of the dollar at least 70%, rampant deflation, leading to rampant inflation and the wiping out of most wealth in this country. Crime rates will soar, and the amount of strife in this country will be like nothing we've seen in the history of this country. It's time for people to look at their situations honestly, get out of denial and start being proactive with their lives and whatever finances they have.
I am telling you flat out, the stock market is headed MUCH MUCH lower. In 2009, in my opinion, the best case is we only see as low as 4500 on the DOW. Worst case is, well, I guess it's 400. Civil unrest and soaring stock prices don't usually run hand and hand, ya know?
As always, I preface by saying I hope I'm wrong. Do not believe the hype that somehow if you hold your stocks for 10 or 20 or 50 years in the long run you'll be fine. It is total BS. It is a LIE. The market doesn't have to come back and I don't think it will, at least not for a very long time, and none of YOU will be able to hold until that happens, you'll probably be long gone. When systems change they usually morph into somehting else, something entirely different. So, sticking with the normal is a sure way to bust yourself out. Don't do it!
I want to relate one more story to you all. Well, actually maybe two. One is old, and one is new. The new one first. A few weeks ago I ran into an old friend at a party. She's a beautiful woman, super smart, very talented, and a good person. She's very soulful and I've always been fond of who she is, even though over the years we've barely seen each other. Well, she related to me that she has a rare disorder that has her in pain ALL the time. She's a young woman, barely 40. If you saw her you'd think she was completely healthy and in very good shape. She's had to, at times, walk with a cane and been on and off pain killers for a while. OK, so some of you I know for knowing some of your personally, have your own crosses to bear. But, it's striking in that she knows and respects my opinion on the things I write about here. And, she spent most of the night asking me about this sort of thing. Why? Because despite her issues she cares deeply about the world around her, around us. I don't mind taking criticism most of the time. I mean, that's part of what this country was/is built on. I care when I get threatened, or my family gets threatened, which has indeed happened. But, difference of opinions is fine. I don't get paid to write this blog, most of the time when I write it I'm falling asleep. And, I certainly don't make much off most people who read it. Clients read it, sure, but most of you aren't clients. You should be, you'd be making some big money if we stayed as hot as we've been, but regardless,I have a lot of readers who enjoy this blog, respect me, or don't like me and read it so they can snicker or send me a nasty email. It's all good. Bottom line is, I care DEEPLY about humanity. I care deeply about my daughters and family and friend, and I care deeply about my country. I'm good at a lot of things, I've never been much good at frustration, or feeling as though I know more than the powers that be and holding it in. When I worked for others I almost always got fired. Why? I always felt (and usually was) I was smarter than my bosses, and I had better ideas, so inevitably I got fired, or quit in a huff. If and when bad stuff happens, I hope that perhaps some of you will keep your integrity as I hope to keep mine and remember that we're all in this together. I really don't know how people in other parts of the world deal with bombs dropping every day, or rape, or poverty or disease or abuse. We have so much in this country to be grateful for. So much to share, its very very sad that we're in this situation and that it's probably going to get a lot worse before it can possibly get better.
And, lastly, the old story. My step dad taught me a lot. Some of it good and some of it bad. My childhood was not easy, to say the least. I won't go into many details, but we didn't have any money, my dad got fired from every job he had. We were on and off welfare, and you all know I ran away and lived on the streets homeless for a while. I remember a lot, but some stuff really sticks out. I remember my father being resentful that seemingly most everyone else had more than he/we did money wise. I've told this story before to clients at seminars, I think, though it was probably a while ago. One day we were getting gas and we went to the self service segment, if I recall, though that piece is unclear. What is clear is that there was a Benz on the other side of the gas nuzzle. And, my father turned to me and said "that Mercedes Benz A-hole, what a pr*9k." What did the guy do to him.us? Nothing. Guy was sitting in his car getting gassed up, just as we were. His crime? He had more than we did. That's it. Maybe he was an A-hole, or even a pr*9k, but I nor my father would know, we had no contact with him.
I remember thinking to myself that it was wrong that someone would be condemned cause they had more than us. But, when I lived on the streets I got a chip on my shoulder. It happened before that really, I think it was ingrained in me, we're often a product of our environment. And, I didn't like that I was stuck in my misery and didn't see a way out.
I tell people this, and I believe it, everything I've accomplished in my life has happened when I was at peace with myself. That's tough for me, I'm not used to being at peace, I am a fighter, I have had to fight myself not to fight. When you have a chip its hard to let it go. But, I find that when I started to want to learn from people who had more than me, more than I wanted to resent them, it's when I excelled.
As a kid there were a lot of things I promised myself, I used to write them down so I would never forget them. Three of those things were that I would make enough to order shrimp and lobster; that I would be charitable; and that I wouldn't go through life as a hater, someone who resents people for what I don't have, but rather stay open to the possibilities that is life. The first two are fairly straight forward. I order shellfish a lot (love sushi!), and I have been honored at the UN for my charity work with children and am currently working on a program with the DOE to give college scholarships to underpriviledged kids. Keeping one's integrity is especially important when we're struggling. It's very hard to maintain our principals when faced with stress and crisis. There are quite a few hate mongers out there right now, I see commercials that are anti a lot of things. Lately there are anti-"rich" ads here in NYC. It reminds me of my father. This country was built on capitalistic ingenuity. Everyone in this world has something to contribute positively, I firmly believe that. It's up to us inevitably to choose to share it, or to abuse it. Look inside yourself for the anwers, I've found that that's where they usually lay. There are still tremendous opportunities, it's up to us to own them, rather than be victim to outside forces.
This is jumbled I am sure, i'm tired and the holidays are exhausting in a pretty good way for the most part. I still haven't finished all my shopping.
This week we'll see a lot of light volume (Very). That leads to exaggerated moves. We SHOULD go up this week. We'll see. I doubt we tank, but we could trade sideways.
OK, that's it, hopefully that made some sense to someone, I'm headed to bed! God bless, and happy holidays to all!
Waxie
OK, so forget my rather repungnent eclectic musical tastes, which seem to be going downhill the older I get. Forget music, let's talk about the seemingly endless musings about the end of the world, or some variation. I've read some serious stuff, dudes and dudesses! And, I take bunk for being so bearish and doom and gloom? Jeez, louise, I'm like Mr. Smiley Face compared to a lot of people, trust me.
I say DOW 4500, and then I say DOW 2500. I see people with DOW 400. I hear GOLD $100,000 targets. Man o man alive. I'll tell you this, if Gold hits $100,000 we're probably all living with a shotgun by our sides, or eating cochroaches for dinner.
See, ok, I think that there is a possibility of civil unrest, riots, lunacy and horrible devaluation of currency and global crisis. I think, as do some of these other people, that people are going to be VERY unhappy when they realize that basically the government is stealing from them. I think that the more people struggle, the more they get angry, and rightfully so since a lot of what has been and what is being created is due to complete and utter incompetence on the part of our elected officials, the lobbyists that have owned a lot of public policy and legislature, and the corporations that paid themselves off at the expense of the average citizen. (Can anyone believe that MER, MS and GS are "only" paying out 1/2 bonuses when WE freakin' paid for them to still be in business? Who is overseeing this lunacy? It's sickening! These companies would be all bankrupt, but they should get ANY bonus? Government gave them all at least $10 BIL in free money, how come they didn't demand NO bonuses? Bonuses for what? Being worth negative $500 BIL? Sick!)
I think that Hank Paulson will end up in jail, and will end up being blamed (rightfully so) for a lot of what's happened and what will happen. I think eventually there will be demands (rightfully so) that the executives who got the BILLIONS AND BILLIONS in bonuses return that money to the taxpayers who are now going to be asked to cover it. You have no idea how much I dislike Paulson. I'm not one to demonize people, but I think the guy is as close to the Grim Reaper or Beazelbob as you can get. It sucks he's bald, he gives bald guys a bad name! How and why this guy gets any respect, or has a freakin' job is beyond me. It makes me ill.
Do you realize that we're a country that only 2 or 3 weeks ago admitted we were in a recession? Denial is a very dangerous place to live, its impossible to make rational decisions when you are in denial.
I got an email last week saying that I was "just like an environmentalist" who was saying everything that was wrong and offering no answers. I like that, I love that some of you guys go after me, its totally cool, keeps me on my toes. Of course I'll say that I do have some ideas, and I wish someone would listen. From reading a ton of stuff I think there are others with very good and realistic ideas. It's part of what's frustrating. I can't honestly say I have THE answer. I've found that most things in life usually have more than one "answer". I think it's unfortunate we are on this road to what I feel, and many others seem to concur, some pretty well respected economists and people like Jim Rogers and Peter Shiff who have called (as have I) much of what has happened so far.
I have to say, I really thought Obama would go out there and bring on some NEW people, some fresh blood, and yet we've gotten retreads, a bunch of people who are partly responsible for what's gone down up til now, and who seem to only know Keynesian economics. There doesn't seem to be anyone in a place of power that is capable of thinking outside the box. It's extremely frustrating and sad. We are potentially headed down a road that may destroy much of what we've been built on for over 200 years. And, no one seems to be willing to listen to anyone else who may have a different fresh view. Why aren't they holding some sort of open meeting and invite people who are well respected who have a different viewpoint? I just don't get it, and the more we go down this road of throwing more and more money, now standing at about $8.7 TRILLION and counting that's been committed the more we are "pot committed" to a worthless dollar. Do you realize that that much money would probably feed every poor person in the WORLD for a while! A LONG while. It's INSANE.
I've stated what I would do. I'll repeat it again, or the short version. I would let the stock market DIE. I would nationalize the entire banking system and let ALL the banks that are in debt go under, period. Make the shares worthless and then the government really could act as pilot to a meaningful change. If they did that as a start, even now, they would save the roughly $50+ TRIL (or more) that is estimated to be bad and potentially/probably worthless debt on the banking systems debt. There is simply no way they can assume all that debt without bankrupting the entire country and devaluing the dollar anywhere from 50 to 90% in my opinion.
So, by nationalizing the banking system now, rather than throw all that money at it, it would save "us" a ton of money. It would also allow the government to support the housing market organcally by lowering mortgage rates, PLUS they would then REALLY make money because even if they charged 2% interest it would be more than the Discount rate, which now stands at zero. I stated this last week, my feeling is that they are trying to be all things to all people. By doing so they will, I believe, bust everything out. We've thrown a few TRIL at the issue, what have we gotten for it? Yes, I know, the bullish case is that it takes time, it'll work. Ah huh, sure it will. And if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle, right-o! It can't and couldn't work, the banks used it to pay down debt or acquire assets to try to ensure THEIR survival. That's why its already gone, it was gone before the check got there. And, thats why the banks can only free up the credit markets so much. Kinda tough to owe a few TRIL and free up credit! The same way politicians are acting out of fear. Just imagine how much legislation will now be justified because of this, and the Madoff ripoff.
When people are scared they overreact. We saw it after 9/11 when we enacted the Patriot Act, which led to wire tapping and eventually led to justifying torture. Whether you agree or not with that assessment, throughout history human beings do extraordinary things, often not good, sometimes very good, when they are faced with crisis. Some people excel and lead, some live in terror and act out of that fear. Integrity is tough to keep when you are afraid.
And, this is part of the problem with blind faith in anything. Now, see, I'm not immune to fear, or challenges, or even bowing out of my integrity at different moments in my life. I'd like to be, but I'm certainly not perfect. All I can do is keep trying to do better whenever pressed. I feel as though I am pretty good in crisis, I usually keep my cool. Not always, but usually. It's ironic that I'm awesome when its not my own crisis. If the world were to be ending I am pretty sure I can keep my cool. I've thrived under duress many times in my life. Part of doing well in crisis is being prepared. I think thats part of what makes me a good, though imperfect trader.
I've stated here my intentions to put together a CRISIS symposium in a few months. I'm still taking resumes for those of you who feel you have something to offer as an expert. We only have about 6 slots so makes sure you have credentials. I realize some of you may have better ideas then some people with credentials, I sure feel I do. No offense, I'm trying to promote this as something that may potentially get press coverage to hopefully get some outside the box ideas out there. I have two little girls, I don't really want to have to go live underground somewhere and worry that some lunatic puts my girls at risk. If you are interested in participating, or just in potentially attending (it'll be in NYC in May or June 2009) please email;
boogedyshoe@aol.com, and cc me; waxie@trendfund.com
Please send your resume if you feel you have something to offer and would like to be considered for inclusion as an expert in the fields of;
Economics
Security
Psychology of crisis
Spirituality
Homeland security
Medical emergency
Crisis management
or something else you feel would be invaluable. If chosen I'll at least pay your way to NYC.
In the meantime, there you have part of my answer. The banking system in this country is BANKRUPT. The government must sacrifice the stock market to save the rest of the country. They must see that they have now thrown 8.7 TRILLION at the problems and have NOTHING to show for it. NOTHING. In fact, things are getting worse according to all imperial data I have seen. The American people have been lied to, spit on and led astray - its time for the trusted servants who WE employ to have an honest and open discussion and let others in on the process. Until that happens I fear that we are headed down a road that will lead to civil unrest, tax boycotts, the devaluation of the dollar at least 70%, rampant deflation, leading to rampant inflation and the wiping out of most wealth in this country. Crime rates will soar, and the amount of strife in this country will be like nothing we've seen in the history of this country. It's time for people to look at their situations honestly, get out of denial and start being proactive with their lives and whatever finances they have.
I am telling you flat out, the stock market is headed MUCH MUCH lower. In 2009, in my opinion, the best case is we only see as low as 4500 on the DOW. Worst case is, well, I guess it's 400. Civil unrest and soaring stock prices don't usually run hand and hand, ya know?
As always, I preface by saying I hope I'm wrong. Do not believe the hype that somehow if you hold your stocks for 10 or 20 or 50 years in the long run you'll be fine. It is total BS. It is a LIE. The market doesn't have to come back and I don't think it will, at least not for a very long time, and none of YOU will be able to hold until that happens, you'll probably be long gone. When systems change they usually morph into somehting else, something entirely different. So, sticking with the normal is a sure way to bust yourself out. Don't do it!
I want to relate one more story to you all. Well, actually maybe two. One is old, and one is new. The new one first. A few weeks ago I ran into an old friend at a party. She's a beautiful woman, super smart, very talented, and a good person. She's very soulful and I've always been fond of who she is, even though over the years we've barely seen each other. Well, she related to me that she has a rare disorder that has her in pain ALL the time. She's a young woman, barely 40. If you saw her you'd think she was completely healthy and in very good shape. She's had to, at times, walk with a cane and been on and off pain killers for a while. OK, so some of you I know for knowing some of your personally, have your own crosses to bear. But, it's striking in that she knows and respects my opinion on the things I write about here. And, she spent most of the night asking me about this sort of thing. Why? Because despite her issues she cares deeply about the world around her, around us. I don't mind taking criticism most of the time. I mean, that's part of what this country was/is built on. I care when I get threatened, or my family gets threatened, which has indeed happened. But, difference of opinions is fine. I don't get paid to write this blog, most of the time when I write it I'm falling asleep. And, I certainly don't make much off most people who read it. Clients read it, sure, but most of you aren't clients. You should be, you'd be making some big money if we stayed as hot as we've been, but regardless,I have a lot of readers who enjoy this blog, respect me, or don't like me and read it so they can snicker or send me a nasty email. It's all good. Bottom line is, I care DEEPLY about humanity. I care deeply about my daughters and family and friend, and I care deeply about my country. I'm good at a lot of things, I've never been much good at frustration, or feeling as though I know more than the powers that be and holding it in. When I worked for others I almost always got fired. Why? I always felt (and usually was) I was smarter than my bosses, and I had better ideas, so inevitably I got fired, or quit in a huff. If and when bad stuff happens, I hope that perhaps some of you will keep your integrity as I hope to keep mine and remember that we're all in this together. I really don't know how people in other parts of the world deal with bombs dropping every day, or rape, or poverty or disease or abuse. We have so much in this country to be grateful for. So much to share, its very very sad that we're in this situation and that it's probably going to get a lot worse before it can possibly get better.
And, lastly, the old story. My step dad taught me a lot. Some of it good and some of it bad. My childhood was not easy, to say the least. I won't go into many details, but we didn't have any money, my dad got fired from every job he had. We were on and off welfare, and you all know I ran away and lived on the streets homeless for a while. I remember a lot, but some stuff really sticks out. I remember my father being resentful that seemingly most everyone else had more than he/we did money wise. I've told this story before to clients at seminars, I think, though it was probably a while ago. One day we were getting gas and we went to the self service segment, if I recall, though that piece is unclear. What is clear is that there was a Benz on the other side of the gas nuzzle. And, my father turned to me and said "that Mercedes Benz A-hole, what a pr*9k." What did the guy do to him.us? Nothing. Guy was sitting in his car getting gassed up, just as we were. His crime? He had more than we did. That's it. Maybe he was an A-hole, or even a pr*9k, but I nor my father would know, we had no contact with him.
I remember thinking to myself that it was wrong that someone would be condemned cause they had more than us. But, when I lived on the streets I got a chip on my shoulder. It happened before that really, I think it was ingrained in me, we're often a product of our environment. And, I didn't like that I was stuck in my misery and didn't see a way out.
I tell people this, and I believe it, everything I've accomplished in my life has happened when I was at peace with myself. That's tough for me, I'm not used to being at peace, I am a fighter, I have had to fight myself not to fight. When you have a chip its hard to let it go. But, I find that when I started to want to learn from people who had more than me, more than I wanted to resent them, it's when I excelled.
As a kid there were a lot of things I promised myself, I used to write them down so I would never forget them. Three of those things were that I would make enough to order shrimp and lobster; that I would be charitable; and that I wouldn't go through life as a hater, someone who resents people for what I don't have, but rather stay open to the possibilities that is life. The first two are fairly straight forward. I order shellfish a lot (love sushi!), and I have been honored at the UN for my charity work with children and am currently working on a program with the DOE to give college scholarships to underpriviledged kids. Keeping one's integrity is especially important when we're struggling. It's very hard to maintain our principals when faced with stress and crisis. There are quite a few hate mongers out there right now, I see commercials that are anti a lot of things. Lately there are anti-"rich" ads here in NYC. It reminds me of my father. This country was built on capitalistic ingenuity. Everyone in this world has something to contribute positively, I firmly believe that. It's up to us inevitably to choose to share it, or to abuse it. Look inside yourself for the anwers, I've found that that's where they usually lay. There are still tremendous opportunities, it's up to us to own them, rather than be victim to outside forces.
This is jumbled I am sure, i'm tired and the holidays are exhausting in a pretty good way for the most part. I still haven't finished all my shopping.
This week we'll see a lot of light volume (Very). That leads to exaggerated moves. We SHOULD go up this week. We'll see. I doubt we tank, but we could trade sideways.
OK, that's it, hopefully that made some sense to someone, I'm headed to bed! God bless, and happy holidays to all!
Waxie
Thursday, December 18, 2008
SHORTING...
I am putting together my TOP TEN SHORTS and TOP TEN PUT OPTIONS/SPREADS plays of 2009 and will let you all know when the classes will be, figure early January.
I am getting a lot of emails people dying to short. It's tough, I mean on one hand I'm pretty confident we are gonna tank HARD next year, but into Obama the way the market reacts to him (even today we rallied when he was talking!) its tough to short at will. I mean, if you want to buy some March or April or July puts on some stuff, I guess thats ok, but if we do get a pop to 10,000 or even close they will be worthless pretty much for the time being. I like to play TRENDS, thats what I do. Right now the TREND is more bullish then bearish. Even next week we are more bullish then bearish on several trend fronts. So, do I want to start shorting? Well, I see GS at $81 today and I am very yummyish to short it, but when you buck the trends you usually lose, thats why they are trends. Maybe we tank hard next week, but you have 3 trends that go against that happening - WIndow Dressing, January Effects, and the week after FOMC we usually reverse the action of the prior week (Wed/Thur/Fri action). So far that would point to a higher move next week on three fronts. Will we go up? Who knows, this is a freaky market. I'm being honest, this market feels spent, but the trends say otherwise. So, we just have to use money management, go smaller lots and make sure you preserve your capital and not make a trade if you aren't sure of it (as sure as you can be). You know, trading isn't science, its not perfect, but being imperfect is one major reason we can have a huge edge overall IF we pick our spots and play the strongest of the strong. This is a CRAZY market. Look at BUCY for example, AWESOME move for us off initial call, major winner! I sold at very nice profit. BUT, then today it just drops dead. It's just nuts. Look at the moves in this market, its sick. Oil is $36s! It moves like 5 to 15% a day nearly every day, that's SICK! It is possible Oil sees teens. I am not making a call on it, but jeez louise, we are in serious deflation. The problem is that they are trying to devalue the dollar but everyone else is just as screwed as we are, so its like all currencies in the crapper. So, we are stuck with deflation. If I hear one more time that the banks should be lending I'm gonna puke. People don't want to borrow! The Fed is trying to force people to borrow. OK, fine, give me $50 MIL at 1% interest, I'll borrow and trade it!
:)
RULE!
Waxie
I am getting a lot of emails people dying to short. It's tough, I mean on one hand I'm pretty confident we are gonna tank HARD next year, but into Obama the way the market reacts to him (even today we rallied when he was talking!) its tough to short at will. I mean, if you want to buy some March or April or July puts on some stuff, I guess thats ok, but if we do get a pop to 10,000 or even close they will be worthless pretty much for the time being. I like to play TRENDS, thats what I do. Right now the TREND is more bullish then bearish. Even next week we are more bullish then bearish on several trend fronts. So, do I want to start shorting? Well, I see GS at $81 today and I am very yummyish to short it, but when you buck the trends you usually lose, thats why they are trends. Maybe we tank hard next week, but you have 3 trends that go against that happening - WIndow Dressing, January Effects, and the week after FOMC we usually reverse the action of the prior week (Wed/Thur/Fri action). So far that would point to a higher move next week on three fronts. Will we go up? Who knows, this is a freaky market. I'm being honest, this market feels spent, but the trends say otherwise. So, we just have to use money management, go smaller lots and make sure you preserve your capital and not make a trade if you aren't sure of it (as sure as you can be). You know, trading isn't science, its not perfect, but being imperfect is one major reason we can have a huge edge overall IF we pick our spots and play the strongest of the strong. This is a CRAZY market. Look at BUCY for example, AWESOME move for us off initial call, major winner! I sold at very nice profit. BUT, then today it just drops dead. It's just nuts. Look at the moves in this market, its sick. Oil is $36s! It moves like 5 to 15% a day nearly every day, that's SICK! It is possible Oil sees teens. I am not making a call on it, but jeez louise, we are in serious deflation. The problem is that they are trying to devalue the dollar but everyone else is just as screwed as we are, so its like all currencies in the crapper. So, we are stuck with deflation. If I hear one more time that the banks should be lending I'm gonna puke. People don't want to borrow! The Fed is trying to force people to borrow. OK, fine, give me $50 MIL at 1% interest, I'll borrow and trade it!
:)
RULE!
Waxie
When do I wake up to down 2000+ on the DOW?
I tell ya, this market just feels like its waiting for a "bomb" to drop EVERY day. Even when we go up one day its like got this eery feeling to it, this ominous feeling that we're going to wake up and BOOM, the whole market is done for.
Now, its unlikely that we will wake up and the market will be all gone. But, I don't think its unlikely that we will wake up one day next year and be down 1000+, and probably even 2000 at some point. I hope I'm wrong, but the option activity still points to some major bad stuff happening. We are in tough times, folks, we have to buckle down.
For those of you that have emailed about the CRISIS SYMPOSIUM 2009, as soon as I have more info I will post it here. I am still working on it, so we'll see what shakes.
As far as the market, man, this is tough, I tell ya. I thought we'd bounce a bit late day, obviously not. This is why you need to take profits RELIGIOUSLY in this market, you can't sit on your positions and say "well, I think it'll go up...or down".
Yeah, it may go your way eventually, but in the meantime you may be cracked. I've been cashing in and then reloading and then cashing in and THAT is how you make money in this market. We'll see what happens tomorrow, it's Options Expiration day which should get us some whippy action. If we're down late day watch for a late late day squeeze into the close. Also, those of you who follow us for a while know if you watch what I call PIN ACTION then you can make some quick cash with very little risk. Look at C for example, stock closed today at $7.43. Baring a very big move either way, which I doubt, C will probably close at $7.50 strike price. That way the market makers and big players can cash out both sides of that straddle. They can sell both sides for about .30 cents. While that seems like a horrible play, its not bad at all. .30 cents on a $7.43 stock is a helluva one day return and your risk is only there is the stock closes lower than $7.13 and higher than $7.73. That's a big move, and if they can pin it and close C right at $7.50 then they collect about 4% in a day. Not a bad return on investment.
It also informs your intraday trading so you don't get caught. If you see GS at $80.95 at 3:15 then you probably want to short it or stand down. Why? Cause though not every stock closes at a strike, many do (check it out tomorrow to see for yourself) and its unlikely that from 3:15 to 4 pm on no news GS would make it to $85, so its a bad long more than likely, but short you could possibly justify since you may get that .95 cents and have a shot to get slightly lower.
I'm totally neutral here. The only thing keeping me from being bullish for next week is that so many people think we rally as well and that scares me. So, make sure your stops are set either way and be careful not to chop suey your acct! That's a good way to get all cracked and chopped up.
In the meantime, lets hope we don't get a down 2000 day anytime, well....ever!
RULE!
Michael WAXIE Parness
FYI - CNBC ran a show tonight called the Biggest Scam Ever or something, dealing with the Madoff Ponzi scheme. See, I thought the $700 BIL bailout was the biggest scam ever! Hehe, shows you what I know!
Oh, couple people asked me about Gold again. I own a very small amount of Gold, most of it I bought at $275 an ounce when I called it long years ago. I think Gold may actually get a bullish move next year, but before that we are still in deflationary period, so I wouldn't rush out to buy bullion just this second. ANd, yes, I do change my mind all the time, thats what traders do. I made a lot of money trading GOld futures recently, I trade stuff both ways and I try not to get stuck on ideas. Open mind = profits. Closed = death and broke!
AND, I am still bearish on GOld overall. See? Mixed messages, thats cause I'm neutral on the thing, hehe!
RULE!
Now, its unlikely that we will wake up and the market will be all gone. But, I don't think its unlikely that we will wake up one day next year and be down 1000+, and probably even 2000 at some point. I hope I'm wrong, but the option activity still points to some major bad stuff happening. We are in tough times, folks, we have to buckle down.
For those of you that have emailed about the CRISIS SYMPOSIUM 2009, as soon as I have more info I will post it here. I am still working on it, so we'll see what shakes.
As far as the market, man, this is tough, I tell ya. I thought we'd bounce a bit late day, obviously not. This is why you need to take profits RELIGIOUSLY in this market, you can't sit on your positions and say "well, I think it'll go up...or down".
Yeah, it may go your way eventually, but in the meantime you may be cracked. I've been cashing in and then reloading and then cashing in and THAT is how you make money in this market. We'll see what happens tomorrow, it's Options Expiration day which should get us some whippy action. If we're down late day watch for a late late day squeeze into the close. Also, those of you who follow us for a while know if you watch what I call PIN ACTION then you can make some quick cash with very little risk. Look at C for example, stock closed today at $7.43. Baring a very big move either way, which I doubt, C will probably close at $7.50 strike price. That way the market makers and big players can cash out both sides of that straddle. They can sell both sides for about .30 cents. While that seems like a horrible play, its not bad at all. .30 cents on a $7.43 stock is a helluva one day return and your risk is only there is the stock closes lower than $7.13 and higher than $7.73. That's a big move, and if they can pin it and close C right at $7.50 then they collect about 4% in a day. Not a bad return on investment.
It also informs your intraday trading so you don't get caught. If you see GS at $80.95 at 3:15 then you probably want to short it or stand down. Why? Cause though not every stock closes at a strike, many do (check it out tomorrow to see for yourself) and its unlikely that from 3:15 to 4 pm on no news GS would make it to $85, so its a bad long more than likely, but short you could possibly justify since you may get that .95 cents and have a shot to get slightly lower.
I'm totally neutral here. The only thing keeping me from being bullish for next week is that so many people think we rally as well and that scares me. So, make sure your stops are set either way and be careful not to chop suey your acct! That's a good way to get all cracked and chopped up.
In the meantime, lets hope we don't get a down 2000 day anytime, well....ever!
RULE!
Michael WAXIE Parness
FYI - CNBC ran a show tonight called the Biggest Scam Ever or something, dealing with the Madoff Ponzi scheme. See, I thought the $700 BIL bailout was the biggest scam ever! Hehe, shows you what I know!
Oh, couple people asked me about Gold again. I own a very small amount of Gold, most of it I bought at $275 an ounce when I called it long years ago. I think Gold may actually get a bullish move next year, but before that we are still in deflationary period, so I wouldn't rush out to buy bullion just this second. ANd, yes, I do change my mind all the time, thats what traders do. I made a lot of money trading GOld futures recently, I trade stuff both ways and I try not to get stuck on ideas. Open mind = profits. Closed = death and broke!
AND, I am still bearish on GOld overall. See? Mixed messages, thats cause I'm neutral on the thing, hehe!
RULE!
Awesome day...again...
Love this market, its marvelous. What else is there to say?
Irony of ironies, I am getting bullish the US dollar! Yup, believe it or not, I think its nearing a bottom here and will retest the highs before this happened shortly. What's going to happen is that Europe will need to cut their rates dramatically, thus again propping up the dollar. The issue is systematic, and the system is worldwide, not just us. The Gold bugs long term view is just that, that all currencies become worthless and Gold rules the world. It's possible that Gold makes that huge dramatic move. I own some Gold to diversify so clearly I think it can happen, but more than likely the dollar gets firm and then Gold drops to $600 or lower and THEN when all currencies are weaker Gold may take off. That I could see. The dollar would be worthless by now even if not for everyone else struggling just as bad, and in some cases worse. I know I am tough on the powers that be at times, but in all honesty I dont know what else they can do on some level. They can't let unemployment go to 30% or some crazy #, it would create chaos, so they are trying to take the lesser of all evils. My big issue is with the stock market and creating an artificial floor which can't hold long term in my opinion. That's why I think they will ultimately have to sacrifice something and it'll be the stock market. It's amazing how many booyahheads recommend JPM and other banks for the long haul when they, if I am right, will all be worthless.
OK, I'm beat,thats all I got for ya! Fugtures are up decently here overnight. We'll see where we open, I would think the fade play will work again if we open either way with a decent gap. We'll see soon enough! TSO calls today went 100% literally in less than 90 minutes! For those that asked, NO thats not a record, I once called an option play for over 800% gain in like 1/2 an hour if I recall. It was a few years ago, I think it was CHKP on options expiration day!
Watch RIMM here, I THINK the bad news is baked in, stock may head higher post earnings. Not saying to buy it and hold over earnings, but may be worth a flyer intrday.
Lots of other goodies I have to save for members! Sign up!
RULE!
Waxie
Irony of ironies, I am getting bullish the US dollar! Yup, believe it or not, I think its nearing a bottom here and will retest the highs before this happened shortly. What's going to happen is that Europe will need to cut their rates dramatically, thus again propping up the dollar. The issue is systematic, and the system is worldwide, not just us. The Gold bugs long term view is just that, that all currencies become worthless and Gold rules the world. It's possible that Gold makes that huge dramatic move. I own some Gold to diversify so clearly I think it can happen, but more than likely the dollar gets firm and then Gold drops to $600 or lower and THEN when all currencies are weaker Gold may take off. That I could see. The dollar would be worthless by now even if not for everyone else struggling just as bad, and in some cases worse. I know I am tough on the powers that be at times, but in all honesty I dont know what else they can do on some level. They can't let unemployment go to 30% or some crazy #, it would create chaos, so they are trying to take the lesser of all evils. My big issue is with the stock market and creating an artificial floor which can't hold long term in my opinion. That's why I think they will ultimately have to sacrifice something and it'll be the stock market. It's amazing how many booyahheads recommend JPM and other banks for the long haul when they, if I am right, will all be worthless.
OK, I'm beat,thats all I got for ya! Fugtures are up decently here overnight. We'll see where we open, I would think the fade play will work again if we open either way with a decent gap. We'll see soon enough! TSO calls today went 100% literally in less than 90 minutes! For those that asked, NO thats not a record, I once called an option play for over 800% gain in like 1/2 an hour if I recall. It was a few years ago, I think it was CHKP on options expiration day!
Watch RIMM here, I THINK the bad news is baked in, stock may head higher post earnings. Not saying to buy it and hold over earnings, but may be worth a flyer intrday.
Lots of other goodies I have to save for members! Sign up!
RULE!
Waxie
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Today's Fed move...
OK, one more cause this is a doosey. So, I'm watching Kuddy bear now. At least there are a couple of people who have a clue. Peter Shiff definately has it right. It's amazing to me that people get so stuck in their beliefs that they can't see their way out to reality. Today's Fed move is an unmitigated DISASTER. It's a ticking time bomb. You can not buy your way out of a recession. You can not try to pump air into a leaky tire and then drive on it and expect the car isn't going to break down. This notion that we should get rid of mark to market is possibly the most dangerous and insane idea out there. The short seller nonsense that booyah spiels is basically harmless ignorance, but mark to market creates and regulates a real market. For those of you who don't know what mark to market is, and I preface this by saying I'm not an "expert" on this subject, but basically it means that you have to account for whats on your books at the REAL market value of it. It regulates the market because otherwise a company like Citibank could mark their $350 BIL in "assets" that have a real value of like $3.00 maximum at something a lot higher, thus artificially pumping up their "net" worth and making it appear that they are worth more than they are. If these companies are allowed to skirt that rule it will falsely create "wealth" for shareholders and an illusion of value. It will once again rally the market, which is fine with me, but it will ultimately create false values that shareholders will rely on. The Fed is playing Russian Roulette with the taxpayers money. It is a disaster and it's going to lead to a very bad ending I believe. As always, I preface this by saying that I hope I'm wrong, I just don't think I will be. The Fed historically has overshot both ways, which is what they have done now. I've talked about the first ever deflationary-inflation period in the history of economics. That's what we have, and when we do switch from deflation, which we are clearly in, to inflation, it's going to wreck such havoc to be beyond belief. The market rallies are only good for us traders. Investors are mostly too stuck and foolish to use market strength to sell into. If I am right about a move to 10,300 area then it will potentially create one of the best shorting opportunities of all time. I'll be releasing a TOP 10 STOCK and TOP 10OPTION SHORT trades of 2009 when I feel we are near the "top" of this move. It's too early here I believe, but it should be once we get past Obama's inaugeration.
This is why you must be a trader and let go of the notion of investing. What is anyone investing in? The Fed saving them? None and I mean NONE of these rallies are based on anything fundemental, they are ALL based on what the Fed does or doesn't do. That's a very VERY bad base for any market. Markets are not artificial by nature, they are organic. We right now have an artificial market. If the Fed were not rigging the game the DOW would already be below 5000 and the Nasdaq would easily be below 750. President Elect Obama said it today, the Fed basically has run out of REAL bullets and now is resorting to phoney/smoke and mirrors ones.
Now the old adage of "don't fight the Fed" would normally apply here, however that's with NORMAL bullet usage, meaning they would be lowering rates. We are indeed in unchartered territory and I believe most of what they are doing now is what I've dubbed "wishing well economics". Throw it out there and make a wish and hope it comes true.
I have to say, I actually agreed with Kuddy bear tonight for the 1st time potentially ever. Good show tonight, I enjoyed it. Peter Shiff is tough, he may be more opinionated then me! ROFLMAO! That's tough, but he just might be! We see things similar on many counts. I'm trying to get him for the symposium as well. More on that later, in the meantime, there ya have it, this is my take on what the Fed did today. It'll be interesting to see what the markets do tomorrow. Often the day after the FOMC day move we reverse, and then the day after we rally again or fall again, whichever is the 1st (today) move. I'm pretty bullish here, but we'll see. Nothing, as you all know, goes in a straight line. Right now the futures are down slightly, we'll see, we shall see!
One last thing, cause I just heard it, and I think I've said similar things before, actually earlier. The Fed is trying to be all things to all people. When you do that generally you fail everyone. Ultimately they will fail YOU and ME unfortunately.
Paulson said today that they are trying to prop up the stock market, they don't want to Nationalize the financial system. THAT, in my opinion, is exactly what should and what will have to ultimately happen. If they did that then they would ORGANICALLY get to where they want to go, they would just be sacrificing the banks. Why they won't do that is beyond me. Yes, shareholders will get wiped out that own these worthless assets, but there would not be massive job losses, and there would not be carnage. By trying to serve all sectors and all people they are doomed to fail in everything. The banks are WORTHLESS. C, JPM, WFC, etc, etc,etc are all WORTHLESS. The stock should be ZERO on them all, they are no better than Fannie Mae or Freddy Mac. Ultimately they will get there, in the meantime the Fed will keep trying to prop them up and foolish investors will be sucked in even deeper until they are ultimately hurt even more.
THAT is reality, my friends, at least according to me - your friendly neighborhood WAXIE!
RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
This is why you must be a trader and let go of the notion of investing. What is anyone investing in? The Fed saving them? None and I mean NONE of these rallies are based on anything fundemental, they are ALL based on what the Fed does or doesn't do. That's a very VERY bad base for any market. Markets are not artificial by nature, they are organic. We right now have an artificial market. If the Fed were not rigging the game the DOW would already be below 5000 and the Nasdaq would easily be below 750. President Elect Obama said it today, the Fed basically has run out of REAL bullets and now is resorting to phoney/smoke and mirrors ones.
Now the old adage of "don't fight the Fed" would normally apply here, however that's with NORMAL bullet usage, meaning they would be lowering rates. We are indeed in unchartered territory and I believe most of what they are doing now is what I've dubbed "wishing well economics". Throw it out there and make a wish and hope it comes true.
I have to say, I actually agreed with Kuddy bear tonight for the 1st time potentially ever. Good show tonight, I enjoyed it. Peter Shiff is tough, he may be more opinionated then me! ROFLMAO! That's tough, but he just might be! We see things similar on many counts. I'm trying to get him for the symposium as well. More on that later, in the meantime, there ya have it, this is my take on what the Fed did today. It'll be interesting to see what the markets do tomorrow. Often the day after the FOMC day move we reverse, and then the day after we rally again or fall again, whichever is the 1st (today) move. I'm pretty bullish here, but we'll see. Nothing, as you all know, goes in a straight line. Right now the futures are down slightly, we'll see, we shall see!
One last thing, cause I just heard it, and I think I've said similar things before, actually earlier. The Fed is trying to be all things to all people. When you do that generally you fail everyone. Ultimately they will fail YOU and ME unfortunately.
Paulson said today that they are trying to prop up the stock market, they don't want to Nationalize the financial system. THAT, in my opinion, is exactly what should and what will have to ultimately happen. If they did that then they would ORGANICALLY get to where they want to go, they would just be sacrificing the banks. Why they won't do that is beyond me. Yes, shareholders will get wiped out that own these worthless assets, but there would not be massive job losses, and there would not be carnage. By trying to serve all sectors and all people they are doomed to fail in everything. The banks are WORTHLESS. C, JPM, WFC, etc, etc,etc are all WORTHLESS. The stock should be ZERO on them all, they are no better than Fannie Mae or Freddy Mac. Ultimately they will get there, in the meantime the Fed will keep trying to prop them up and foolish investors will be sucked in even deeper until they are ultimately hurt even more.
THAT is reality, my friends, at least according to me - your friendly neighborhood WAXIE!
RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
INFO
I just want to say for the record, I am NOT arrogant! Why? Arrogance comes from weakness, when you are RIGHT and its a FACT, it's not arrogance, its the TRUTH! Hehe!
Man o man, I love ALL of you. XOXO. Even the haters. Love to all. Holiday spirit!
No worries...
OK, so some market info. I definately lean long still and continue to view 10,300 as potential upside. I think the S & P has 1000 bullseye target going for it now if we can stay above 900 here. It'll be interesting to see what happens tomorrow. I would LOVE a gap down on no news, that would be infinately buyable in my opinion. I don't see that happening on no news, though. A lot of funds will not want to miss this move and will try to play catch up. The little ones we own should do very well here, but make sure you trail them with stops now!
Thing is, this is why, in my opinion, TRENDS are so powerful and give you such a HUGE edge. It's not me stroking myself, which I have no problem doing, it's reality. There's no coincidences in life as far as I can tell, and therefore the fact that almost every year we get the rallies we're getting now are PLAYABLE for HUGE MONEY! Sometimes, like I said last week, you have to close your eyes and jump in the pool, even if the water is a bit cold. Do you think I'm Mr.Bull? Of course not, my longer term views have not changed in the least,other than the caveat I've given which is that if the Fed completely tanks the dollar, which they are in danger of doing in my view, then the market would go up, but still be worth a lot less. I've said here quite a few times the Fed should buy mortgages and lower rates to 3 to 4%, which is what they are now doing! I think they are doing it wrong, they are trying to do and be all things to all people and usually doing that results in complete failure, but hey what do I know? I'm just a dude who trades!
We SHOULD get a follow through day, if so watch the laggards, small caps in similar sectors are a good place to start looking! Let's see what shakes out! I have to run, but more tomorrow, just trade here is my call. BUT, trade smart and patiently. RULE!
Waxie
Man o man, I love ALL of you. XOXO. Even the haters. Love to all. Holiday spirit!
No worries...
OK, so some market info. I definately lean long still and continue to view 10,300 as potential upside. I think the S & P has 1000 bullseye target going for it now if we can stay above 900 here. It'll be interesting to see what happens tomorrow. I would LOVE a gap down on no news, that would be infinately buyable in my opinion. I don't see that happening on no news, though. A lot of funds will not want to miss this move and will try to play catch up. The little ones we own should do very well here, but make sure you trail them with stops now!
Thing is, this is why, in my opinion, TRENDS are so powerful and give you such a HUGE edge. It's not me stroking myself, which I have no problem doing, it's reality. There's no coincidences in life as far as I can tell, and therefore the fact that almost every year we get the rallies we're getting now are PLAYABLE for HUGE MONEY! Sometimes, like I said last week, you have to close your eyes and jump in the pool, even if the water is a bit cold. Do you think I'm Mr.Bull? Of course not, my longer term views have not changed in the least,other than the caveat I've given which is that if the Fed completely tanks the dollar, which they are in danger of doing in my view, then the market would go up, but still be worth a lot less. I've said here quite a few times the Fed should buy mortgages and lower rates to 3 to 4%, which is what they are now doing! I think they are doing it wrong, they are trying to do and be all things to all people and usually doing that results in complete failure, but hey what do I know? I'm just a dude who trades!
We SHOULD get a follow through day, if so watch the laggards, small caps in similar sectors are a good place to start looking! Let's see what shakes out! I have to run, but more tomorrow, just trade here is my call. BUT, trade smart and patiently. RULE!
Waxie
OH YEE OF LITTLE FAITH...
Man o man, a dude don't get a break!
OK, so for all you doubters, please send a check to the Trend Fund Foundation for all the freakin' HUGE KA-CHINGO'S you are clearly racking up! Man, when BIDU was down $8 I got like 25 or 30 or maybe more emails crying about how could I give it out! It's horrible!
Yeah, ok, well, now you are up HUGE, I want to see the same amount of emails cheering!!! Wheeeeee!!! Had a MONSTER DAY! WOWSA! The January Effects list is EN FUEGO! I mean seriously SICK gainers. SICK, we already have doublers! WOWSAAAA!
Man o man, don't EVER DOUBT DA WAXIEEEEEEEEE!!! That's me, baby, that's me! When I say we gonna rally, you either believe me, or you regret itttttt! Hehe!
OK, enough hubris, I don't want to PO the trading Gawds, but wowsa, we are just crushing this market!
Oh, ok, I forgot one, RIMM! So, where are you doubters now? You know, my peeps, first off not every play is gonna be a winner. Most I can see, but no one, not even me, goes 100%! Secondly, not every winner is going to go our way the second we play it! You have to be willing to stick to your plan! Too many of you guys are reactionary! If you have a PLAN - BEFORE - you enter your trade then it takes out the emotional component. Sure, I get anxious when a play I am strong on is down sometimes, but if I stick to my plan it'll either pan out, or I'll get out with a small loss hopefully. I mean, this market is PRINTING money for us. It's like the Fed, which is another story. It's funny, now all of a sudden they aren't remotely worried about inflation, hehe, but two months ago they were still worried about it! Man, I really worry what's going to happen when inflation does kick in and people realize that the Fed has stolen from them and devalued their hard earned money. Sucks. But, for now, all we can do keep trucking and keep hauling in the BIG and I do mean BIG Ka-chingos!
I pitch this all the time, those of you who are just reading, folks, its time to get in the game, this is a market that I LOVE. You have no idea how much I love this market. I really feel like we own it, like it's my concubine! It's AWESOME, baby, awesome and I think it'll stay this way for a long while. YOU need to get off your butt and get in the game! Stop thinking and start doing! OK, that's it, please give generously, whether its to the Trend Fund Foundation or some other charity, there are a lot of people and causes suffering and in need. If you need an address where to send a donation of any size to us, email - debbie@trendfund.com and she'll give you the info!
See ya all later, I'll try to post later, I stick to my call, DOW has a legit shot to see 10,300. I'm not huge on that call, but I think it has a shot. I am staying with my plan and that is the reverse of what it had been up til I called the bottom (exactly) near 7500. I am trading short and swinging LONG! JANUARY EFFECT RULES!
ROck on, baby, rock on!
RULE!
Waxie
*Where's phoney Waxie, now baby? Hehe! ICO, BIDU, SU, ANF, ETC, ETC, ETC. ALL ROCKING!
OK, so for all you doubters, please send a check to the Trend Fund Foundation for all the freakin' HUGE KA-CHINGO'S you are clearly racking up! Man, when BIDU was down $8 I got like 25 or 30 or maybe more emails crying about how could I give it out! It's horrible!
Yeah, ok, well, now you are up HUGE, I want to see the same amount of emails cheering!!! Wheeeeee!!! Had a MONSTER DAY! WOWSA! The January Effects list is EN FUEGO! I mean seriously SICK gainers. SICK, we already have doublers! WOWSAAAA!
Man o man, don't EVER DOUBT DA WAXIEEEEEEEEE!!! That's me, baby, that's me! When I say we gonna rally, you either believe me, or you regret itttttt! Hehe!
OK, enough hubris, I don't want to PO the trading Gawds, but wowsa, we are just crushing this market!
Oh, ok, I forgot one, RIMM! So, where are you doubters now? You know, my peeps, first off not every play is gonna be a winner. Most I can see, but no one, not even me, goes 100%! Secondly, not every winner is going to go our way the second we play it! You have to be willing to stick to your plan! Too many of you guys are reactionary! If you have a PLAN - BEFORE - you enter your trade then it takes out the emotional component. Sure, I get anxious when a play I am strong on is down sometimes, but if I stick to my plan it'll either pan out, or I'll get out with a small loss hopefully. I mean, this market is PRINTING money for us. It's like the Fed, which is another story. It's funny, now all of a sudden they aren't remotely worried about inflation, hehe, but two months ago they were still worried about it! Man, I really worry what's going to happen when inflation does kick in and people realize that the Fed has stolen from them and devalued their hard earned money. Sucks. But, for now, all we can do keep trucking and keep hauling in the BIG and I do mean BIG Ka-chingos!
I pitch this all the time, those of you who are just reading, folks, its time to get in the game, this is a market that I LOVE. You have no idea how much I love this market. I really feel like we own it, like it's my concubine! It's AWESOME, baby, awesome and I think it'll stay this way for a long while. YOU need to get off your butt and get in the game! Stop thinking and start doing! OK, that's it, please give generously, whether its to the Trend Fund Foundation or some other charity, there are a lot of people and causes suffering and in need. If you need an address where to send a donation of any size to us, email - debbie@trendfund.com and she'll give you the info!
See ya all later, I'll try to post later, I stick to my call, DOW has a legit shot to see 10,300. I'm not huge on that call, but I think it has a shot. I am staying with my plan and that is the reverse of what it had been up til I called the bottom (exactly) near 7500. I am trading short and swinging LONG! JANUARY EFFECT RULES!
ROck on, baby, rock on!
RULE!
Waxie
*Where's phoney Waxie, now baby? Hehe! ICO, BIDU, SU, ANF, ETC, ETC, ETC. ALL ROCKING!
Monday, December 15, 2008
YUK FOO...
What a horrible trading day. Sickly low volume, CNBC decided to trek all the bears out today in honor of the supposed $50 BIL crushing rich folks (and some not so rich) took with that filthbag Madoff, or whatever his name is. Market tried to bounce, and tried to tank and did neither in the end. Worst type of trading day unless you are a pure scalper or use no stops and trade against all rules and hold no matter what. Whippy days get stop outs all over. I lost today, first day in a while. I have to admit, I thought we'd get a bit more follow through and was too bullish. If we had gapped up I would have faded it, but we opened flat, and the rest is history! Such is life, can't make money every trade, or every day. Move on. Funny how many emails I am getting saying that I am now clueless, that the market will get crushed, no way we can go up a point, let alone 100 or 1000! Even funnier, one of the guys, who I won't embarass, is the same guy who was here bashing me when I said we would do what we've done! Hehe! Oh, how the worm turns, or the wheel goes flat, or...well, whatever.
G-d, I know I promised not to comment on booyahhead for at least a week or two, but I just can't take anyone who says that evil short sellers are the reason things go down. It's lunacy. C went down because of short sellers? Really? Has nothing to do with the FACT that C is bankrupt basically? NOthing to do with the $350 BIL in bad toxic assets? Yeah, ok, no, no I'm sorry, its just the SHORT SELLERS! What a joke of a society we are now living in. When do we get the police states? I read more articles talking about how we're going to be one big police state of a country in a few years. With the way the thinking is going, I don't doubt it. Yeah, its everyone else's fault but the investors who were DUMB enough to give that criminal their money? People gave a guy BILLIONS who didn't show any records, but its everyone elses fault. I feel bad that people got ripped off. I've been ripped off. BUt you know what? If you give your life savings to someone without checking out their records or doing any fact finding then you are responsible for at least part of the loss. The guy is a criminal, thats clear, but people are way too passive and way too eager to blame someone else for their own failures. Booyahhead is a knucklehead, he is clueless but people think he knows something. It's beyond comprehension that anyone in the market as long as he's been would blame short selling for the dirth of issues this market has. C went down because of short sellers? Yeah,ok, thats logical. $350 BIL negative net worth might have had somehting to do with, ya think?
RRRRRRGGGGGG!
See ya manana! RULE!
Waxie
G-d, I know I promised not to comment on booyahhead for at least a week or two, but I just can't take anyone who says that evil short sellers are the reason things go down. It's lunacy. C went down because of short sellers? Really? Has nothing to do with the FACT that C is bankrupt basically? NOthing to do with the $350 BIL in bad toxic assets? Yeah, ok, no, no I'm sorry, its just the SHORT SELLERS! What a joke of a society we are now living in. When do we get the police states? I read more articles talking about how we're going to be one big police state of a country in a few years. With the way the thinking is going, I don't doubt it. Yeah, its everyone else's fault but the investors who were DUMB enough to give that criminal their money? People gave a guy BILLIONS who didn't show any records, but its everyone elses fault. I feel bad that people got ripped off. I've been ripped off. BUt you know what? If you give your life savings to someone without checking out their records or doing any fact finding then you are responsible for at least part of the loss. The guy is a criminal, thats clear, but people are way too passive and way too eager to blame someone else for their own failures. Booyahhead is a knucklehead, he is clueless but people think he knows something. It's beyond comprehension that anyone in the market as long as he's been would blame short selling for the dirth of issues this market has. C went down because of short sellers? Yeah,ok, thats logical. $350 BIL negative net worth might have had somehting to do with, ya think?
RRRRRRGGGGGG!
See ya manana! RULE!
Waxie
Sunday, December 14, 2008
MARKET HERE...
This is a very interesting week. It's kinda an in between week. We're not close enough to the end of the year for Window Dressing, or technically January Effect, but based on last week's action we SHOULD go up, potentially dramatically. Sellers look about spent and the market is reacting to every piece of bad news as though its meaningless. Shorts have to be frustrated at this point. There is, however, the flip side which is that reality is anyone buying here for more than a trade is going to lose their money in a big way, AND Friday's move up made a lot of sense since a gap down on a Friday of that magnitude means every short who has a brain covers. That's what the general media and guys on shows that shout military terms fail to get, good traders cover positions at extremely profits and the market goes higher. That doesn't mean that they lost money or are running scared or anything of the kind. To the contrary, it means that they were smart and covered without worrying about leaving some on the table. Capesh?
Here's another thing, I keep hearing that the notion is that if GS gaps down post earnings you should just buy. In fact, I heard one guy who seems like a horrible trader to me, that you should buy with "both fists". Maybe, maybe not, but I think that's kinda a dumb call to be that strong. Not necessarily a poor idea, in fact it may rally post earnings, but I don't think it's a no brainer. Yes, normally that's the trade I'd take, a buy the news situation, but GS may turn out to be a bit different. WE may buy GS post earnings, but let's see what shakes out, you all know long term I think GS sees under $25 and more like under $10. I think GS is worth ZERO, basically. I'm long here, I think you have to lean long until proven wrong here. Having said that, I am just very leery, it almost seems too easy based on every trend I know. That's what scares me, but then again this market has been pretty dead on easy for a while, and things that make sense are really working well (like Friday's gap fade). So, let's just go with it and ride the wave and see what shakes out. I lean long and I am long, but my stops, trust me, are set and I'll reverse if required, I think the stars are aligned, though, for us to get a bust out over 8500 and we should see 9000s this week if thats the case. We shall see soon enough, stay tuned!
Also, I want to mention, many of you guys have made money for nothing or as a member and read my blog all the time. If you have made any money, or get something out of it, I'd like you to consider donating some money to my 501C-3 TREND FUND FOUNDATION. I know people are struggling so give what you can, but it's a worthwhile organization and we are working on starting a program to give scholarships to kids who can't otherwise afford college but would like to go. Those of you who have been here a while know I've done a lot of charity work, mostly with kids. I plan on continuing that trend in 2009 and need some help, anything you can give would be great! Please make checks payable to THE TREND FUND FOUNDATION and send them to;
Debbie Gross
C/O Trendfund.com
19 Charlton Hill
Hamden, CT 06518
Yes, all donations ARE tax deductible. I fund all expenses for the charity, so 100% of your donation go toward the actual causes. I'm a huge believer that everything you give, you get back spiritually at least 12 X's that amount. So, be selfish and give a lot! :)
RULE!
Waxie
Here's another thing, I keep hearing that the notion is that if GS gaps down post earnings you should just buy. In fact, I heard one guy who seems like a horrible trader to me, that you should buy with "both fists". Maybe, maybe not, but I think that's kinda a dumb call to be that strong. Not necessarily a poor idea, in fact it may rally post earnings, but I don't think it's a no brainer. Yes, normally that's the trade I'd take, a buy the news situation, but GS may turn out to be a bit different. WE may buy GS post earnings, but let's see what shakes out, you all know long term I think GS sees under $25 and more like under $10. I think GS is worth ZERO, basically. I'm long here, I think you have to lean long until proven wrong here. Having said that, I am just very leery, it almost seems too easy based on every trend I know. That's what scares me, but then again this market has been pretty dead on easy for a while, and things that make sense are really working well (like Friday's gap fade). So, let's just go with it and ride the wave and see what shakes out. I lean long and I am long, but my stops, trust me, are set and I'll reverse if required, I think the stars are aligned, though, for us to get a bust out over 8500 and we should see 9000s this week if thats the case. We shall see soon enough, stay tuned!
Also, I want to mention, many of you guys have made money for nothing or as a member and read my blog all the time. If you have made any money, or get something out of it, I'd like you to consider donating some money to my 501C-3 TREND FUND FOUNDATION. I know people are struggling so give what you can, but it's a worthwhile organization and we are working on starting a program to give scholarships to kids who can't otherwise afford college but would like to go. Those of you who have been here a while know I've done a lot of charity work, mostly with kids. I plan on continuing that trend in 2009 and need some help, anything you can give would be great! Please make checks payable to THE TREND FUND FOUNDATION and send them to;
Debbie Gross
C/O Trendfund.com
19 Charlton Hill
Hamden, CT 06518
Yes, all donations ARE tax deductible. I fund all expenses for the charity, so 100% of your donation go toward the actual causes. I'm a huge believer that everything you give, you get back spiritually at least 12 X's that amount. So, be selfish and give a lot! :)
RULE!
Waxie
Friday, December 12, 2008
TIMING...
Trading the market is almost always about timing. I get asked for long term predictions all the time, many of you here ask me and have asked these questions. I'm usually happy to tell you what I think longer term, but honestly it does help, but only because of the bias factor. Since I am clearly bearish, I am always thinking about places in which to enter or reenter shorts. I love the banks short. You have no idea how much I love them short. I've been saying for quite a while that most of them are bankrupt. Tonight I heard Jim Rogers, whom I know a tiny bit having been on a couple of shows with him, say the same thing. Having said that, I can't just arbitrarily short the banks this second since I feel that the market has a better shot to rally into Obama then die harder than it has. And yes, I'll be pissed if I miss a big drop due to the news I feel will come sometime in 2009, but thats the breaks. One of my favorite ways to play the coming destruction is through the SKF, but I don't want to tie up a ton of capital and then risk us getting a big pop that lifts all boats/stocks in spite of reality. SKF was $143s premarket and finished the day at $122! That's a big move to hold through. I'm not interested in investing to the short side, the same way I don't think buying stock is a good idea. I think its a stupid idea. Beyond stupid, frankly. So, I'd rather pick my spots, knowing that there is a good shot I will miss a move or two. The way I trade if I bought 5000 shares of SKF ad it died $50 points in a big rally I'd be remiss and I think that's too nerve wrecking and just not good trading or money management! You have to be willing to miss some moves to hopefully/probably catch the down moves that are more substantive. Today was textbook buy the gap down and it ROCKED! I wasn't around most of the day unfortunately, but the best thing about the market is that tomorrow there will be more money winning ideas.
The 1st winner of the World SEries of Trading is Howie Busch! Congrats to him and his family! Make sure you sign up NOW to predict where the DOW will finish short term. Market should stay strong until Obama for the most part. We're buying bad news now. Having said that, there's a lot that can go wrong from here that would impact pricing.
Let's see what shakes, but I would avoid the banks like a pleague.
See ya next week, I'm beat and going to bed!
RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
The 1st winner of the World SEries of Trading is Howie Busch! Congrats to him and his family! Make sure you sign up NOW to predict where the DOW will finish short term. Market should stay strong until Obama for the most part. We're buying bad news now. Having said that, there's a lot that can go wrong from here that would impact pricing.
Let's see what shakes, but I would avoid the banks like a pleague.
See ya next week, I'm beat and going to bed!
RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Ut-O Spagetti-O!
Futures are cracked here late night on word that the auto deal is "dead". It's funny cause I think the chances of that really being true are like 1 in 5000. There's no shot they are going to not bail them out, the Republican's are just playing politics and squeezing the UAW. It's a very bad gamble for the UAW because if the auto makers go belly up, all those perks get blasted into nothingness. I doubt the UAW really believes the government will let them die on a vine, or they'd have to make huge concessions. Also after the close BAC said that they are laying off another 30 to 35,000 workers! This is very scary and very tragic. I think that even if OBama does hire 1.5 MIL people for unnecessary jobs we'll still be at 10+% unemployment, places are closing up shop all over faster than we can count them! KB Toys just declared bankruptcy during holiday season! A toy company goes under at this time of year you know things are horrible. California is toast, and bankrupt. Soon NYC will follow, and others. This is really bad and despite shiny happy people wanting to believe things are going to improve in 2009, there are no signs of that anywhere to be found. Once again, HOPE is a four letter word! The S & P is down 37 points right now overnight. I suspect there will be news of a deal and not a deal and a deal, etc. all day Friday. This is the problem overall with this market, its waiting for news to rally, hence why ultimately its doomed. What happens when there's no more good news to be found? Hmmm. Markets that rally only on news are HYPER Bearish.
I will be at Tiny's dads funderal all day today, make sure you use proper money management and do me proud! MAKE SOME Ka-chingos!
Oh, and make sure you all sign up for the - www.worldseriesoftrading.com - week #2 is taking predictions right now! Week #1 winner of $2500 in cash and prizes will be announced over the weekend! Sign up NOW, its FREE, no obligation whatsoever!
RULE
Michael "WAXIE" Parness
I will be at Tiny's dads funderal all day today, make sure you use proper money management and do me proud! MAKE SOME Ka-chingos!
Oh, and make sure you all sign up for the - www.worldseriesoftrading.com - week #2 is taking predictions right now! Week #1 winner of $2500 in cash and prizes will be announced over the weekend! Sign up NOW, its FREE, no obligation whatsoever!
RULE
Michael "WAXIE" Parness
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
CHOP AND SLOP AND POP...
Market opened up big, rallied into pending news on GM and F and the autos and then tanked and then bounced and then...total chop fest, toughest day to trade is a chop day. We did well, and so far January Effects are beasts overall. We'll see what pans, thanks to all who attended today's class! Let's rock!
For those that wish to snd a donation in Tiny's father's name (he passed away last night sadly) please email - debbie@trendfund.com. She will give you the details on where to send a check. Tiny requests that instead of flowers. My prayers go out to Tiny and the Saul family! Very sad indeed. The Trendfund.com flag is flying at 1/2 mast today.
Oil continues to look bottomed and I think $50 should come into the OPEC meeting next week. Market is having decently constructive action here, as vaolatility wanes, though the flight to safety is ominous indeed. The auto deal is a joke, its actually pretty funny, they all running around like chickens without heads! More evidence that the market is relying on outside forces and nothing organic, which again is not a very good sign of strength.
Thursday we'll see, I am neutral on us here now. Still favor the upside and think 9000 should come before 8500 or lower, but I wouldn't bet my house on it. We'll just play it by ear, probably more chop and slop and wait for news. AMazing, these knuckleheads love the drama, we all know they will bail out autos, so why go through this nonsense. I mean, I know why, its all posturing to get what they want but do we really have to be exposed so such drivel? Very frustrating indeed.
Let's see what shakes, I thiknk fading the gap shouldl pay off lke it did today if we get a nice gap either way. From there tough call, though again I lean long if anything!
RULE!
For those that wish to snd a donation in Tiny's father's name (he passed away last night sadly) please email - debbie@trendfund.com. She will give you the details on where to send a check. Tiny requests that instead of flowers. My prayers go out to Tiny and the Saul family! Very sad indeed. The Trendfund.com flag is flying at 1/2 mast today.
Oil continues to look bottomed and I think $50 should come into the OPEC meeting next week. Market is having decently constructive action here, as vaolatility wanes, though the flight to safety is ominous indeed. The auto deal is a joke, its actually pretty funny, they all running around like chickens without heads! More evidence that the market is relying on outside forces and nothing organic, which again is not a very good sign of strength.
Thursday we'll see, I am neutral on us here now. Still favor the upside and think 9000 should come before 8500 or lower, but I wouldn't bet my house on it. We'll just play it by ear, probably more chop and slop and wait for news. AMazing, these knuckleheads love the drama, we all know they will bail out autos, so why go through this nonsense. I mean, I know why, its all posturing to get what they want but do we really have to be exposed so such drivel? Very frustrating indeed.
Let's see what shakes, I thiknk fading the gap shouldl pay off lke it did today if we get a nice gap either way. From there tough call, though again I lean long if anything!
RULE!
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
IT'S TIME...
No, not for Santa Claus, not for Jingle Balls, not for Honikah Harry. Nope, its time for the JANUARY EFFECT!
Did you guys notice that when Obama opened his mouth the market rallied? I have to say its uncanny, the guy is either going to live up to the hype or we're in for some really BIG trouble. This much hype surrounding one dude is never a good thing, that's a lot to live up to. I hope he can do it, but I have my doubts. The 3 month treasuries basically hit ZERO today. That's SICK. You giving the government your money for NOTHING in return. SHows the level of confidence people have that things are gonna be ok. Normally that wouldl be a contrarian indicator, but no shot it is here, there is very big time trouble brewing. Art Cashen said it today on CNBC, what do we do if there is a skirmish somewhere or we need money for something bigger than what's on the table? Where does it come from? That's why this policy of spending is INSANE. We are setting ourselves up for a major catastrophe beyond anyone's comprehension. It sucks, it doesn't have to be this way, but I guess it does since it is. How about the dude Governor in Illinois selling Obama's senate seat! Wowsa, talk about nutjobs! And, these are the people we elect. Not every elected official is like this, but unfortunately far many of them are. It's just so dang frustrating to listen to these people destroy the country from within. I guess this is one of those times in life where you need to take a deep breath and let it go, cause they really are screwing things up. 0% on treasuries! That's insane! The market definately looks bottomed near term, but my God, its gonna get ugly once we get past that inaugeration. Light a candle for us all, folks. Light two actually, we'll need all we can get!
I was thinking about putting in a bid for that senate seat that's up for sale in Chicago. Can someone place the bid for me? Guy didn't even want that much, just like a $250,000 job security once he was gone from Governor. I'd give him $500,000 cash to be the senator! That'd be awesome! Then I really could give my opinion, hehe!
OK, so market did what we thought it would do and pulled back. Hopefully we get some selling in the morning and then I think we can rebounce. We'll see, but it is setting up decently, knock on wood. Nothing is a sure thing, so we'll see. Funny thing is GOldman made a call today that said the same thing I've been saying. Plagarism is the most flattering form of love, or whatever that saying is! In chatroom today some moron tried to be an imposter! They tried to be Waxie! How come the internet is such a safe haven for idiots? Seriously, people have nothing better to do then pretend they are me? I'm not that important, except to my kids, dudes and dudesses, why don't you go make believe you are the Pope, or Clint Eastwood, or Harry Potter. Me? I'm flattered, but tell ya what, get some therapy is all I'll say. Internet turns donkey's into racehorses sometimes and whoever did it is a donkey for sure. In the meantime, it's the holiday season, so be happy! I'm spending a ton of time with my girls these days, it's a wonderful thing. I like racking up the big Ka-chingos, but honestly most of the time I get a much bigger kick out of being a daddy then I do making a couple 100K. Yeah, yeah, I know, I know, its easy to say that when you have money! Maybe so, but my life is a lot better the more time I spend with my girls, regardless of whether I make money or not. That's it for tonight, I'll leave ya with that. I think here we have to swing some stuff and see what pans out for the January Effects. I like one of the calls I made today a TON, I bought about 500 calls on it, which is a heavy position for me even. We'll see, but if I'm right it should pay off major! January Effects class is TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY and I'll see ya all there! If you still haven't signed up, what are ya waiting for? Waxie imposter? Hehe! Email - sally@trendfund.com and sign up NOW!
RULEEEEEE!!!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Eeeeeeeeeeeee awwwwwww donkey out
Did you guys notice that when Obama opened his mouth the market rallied? I have to say its uncanny, the guy is either going to live up to the hype or we're in for some really BIG trouble. This much hype surrounding one dude is never a good thing, that's a lot to live up to. I hope he can do it, but I have my doubts. The 3 month treasuries basically hit ZERO today. That's SICK. You giving the government your money for NOTHING in return. SHows the level of confidence people have that things are gonna be ok. Normally that wouldl be a contrarian indicator, but no shot it is here, there is very big time trouble brewing. Art Cashen said it today on CNBC, what do we do if there is a skirmish somewhere or we need money for something bigger than what's on the table? Where does it come from? That's why this policy of spending is INSANE. We are setting ourselves up for a major catastrophe beyond anyone's comprehension. It sucks, it doesn't have to be this way, but I guess it does since it is. How about the dude Governor in Illinois selling Obama's senate seat! Wowsa, talk about nutjobs! And, these are the people we elect. Not every elected official is like this, but unfortunately far many of them are. It's just so dang frustrating to listen to these people destroy the country from within. I guess this is one of those times in life where you need to take a deep breath and let it go, cause they really are screwing things up. 0% on treasuries! That's insane! The market definately looks bottomed near term, but my God, its gonna get ugly once we get past that inaugeration. Light a candle for us all, folks. Light two actually, we'll need all we can get!
I was thinking about putting in a bid for that senate seat that's up for sale in Chicago. Can someone place the bid for me? Guy didn't even want that much, just like a $250,000 job security once he was gone from Governor. I'd give him $500,000 cash to be the senator! That'd be awesome! Then I really could give my opinion, hehe!
OK, so market did what we thought it would do and pulled back. Hopefully we get some selling in the morning and then I think we can rebounce. We'll see, but it is setting up decently, knock on wood. Nothing is a sure thing, so we'll see. Funny thing is GOldman made a call today that said the same thing I've been saying. Plagarism is the most flattering form of love, or whatever that saying is! In chatroom today some moron tried to be an imposter! They tried to be Waxie! How come the internet is such a safe haven for idiots? Seriously, people have nothing better to do then pretend they are me? I'm not that important, except to my kids, dudes and dudesses, why don't you go make believe you are the Pope, or Clint Eastwood, or Harry Potter. Me? I'm flattered, but tell ya what, get some therapy is all I'll say. Internet turns donkey's into racehorses sometimes and whoever did it is a donkey for sure. In the meantime, it's the holiday season, so be happy! I'm spending a ton of time with my girls these days, it's a wonderful thing. I like racking up the big Ka-chingos, but honestly most of the time I get a much bigger kick out of being a daddy then I do making a couple 100K. Yeah, yeah, I know, I know, its easy to say that when you have money! Maybe so, but my life is a lot better the more time I spend with my girls, regardless of whether I make money or not. That's it for tonight, I'll leave ya with that. I think here we have to swing some stuff and see what pans out for the January Effects. I like one of the calls I made today a TON, I bought about 500 calls on it, which is a heavy position for me even. We'll see, but if I'm right it should pay off major! January Effects class is TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY and I'll see ya all there! If you still haven't signed up, what are ya waiting for? Waxie imposter? Hehe! Email - sally@trendfund.com and sign up NOW!
RULEEEEEE!!!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Eeeeeeeeeeeee awwwwwww donkey out
Monday, December 08, 2008
WHO CAN MAKE THE SUN RISE?
Sprinkle it with dew? The Waxieman can, oh the waxieman can! You can even play the long way!!!! Oh, who can make the market rise? Spirnkle it with profits? Play it short for monster winners and then rock the house with longs? The waxieman, oh the waxieman can!!!
WHEEEEE! Man, I LOVE THIS MARKET!!! Jeez louise, this market is owned by yours truly! WOWSA! I feel the the Fed, printing money!!! Hopefully it'll be worth something when the Fed gets through with all their insanity. Hell, I even had Oil long for a huge gain! Wowsa!
We are SMOKING!!! Dang. OK< enough puffery, let's talk turkey here. We have seen the years bottom, thats pretty clear(baring some news event that blows us up). And, I think there's a good shot we see DOW 10,000s before too long. See, thing is, all your naysayers who sent me emails saying I was wrong, you want to know how I knew YOU were wrong? Because some of you (quite a few) were the same folks who sent me emails saying that I was wrong when I was BEARISH! How's that for indicators!? Hehe. Look, there is no way the market has ultimately "bottomed" thats ridiculous, but for the time being Obama is the Mesiah, and you shouldn't mess with the Mesiah babies. I'm Jewish and I don't mess with the Mesiah, so there ya have it! Hehe! No disrespect to anyone meant, btw.
Today we learned that redefaults are running rampant! These are people who refinanced, or were prodded into doing so by the idiotic powers that be and still couldn't or wouldn't meet their mortgage payments. Why the government doesn't learn from it's mistakes is beyond me. I heard this great saying by Kabal Gibran the other day (he wrote "The Prophet") where he says that pain is something that you shouldn't run or hide from, you should own it and embrace it as it brings you closer to G-d. I like that. We are in such a rush to get out of our economic pain that we are doing anything to medicate it. It's just making things worse ultimately. For me, for our clients, I mean, its awesome, its creating the easiest (knock on wood) market to trade EVER, and in many ways that includes 1999! But, for the economy and for the country, this is horrible, its really really bad, boys and girls. It's so sad to me to watch the entire country get washed into nothingness by people who have no right making these decisions. But, what do I know? I'm just a dude, maybe I'm way off, ya know? Well, actually I do know, so its just a damn shame. I feel like I need to make $100 MIL just to be able to buy a few loathes of bread in the net 3 years! When we need wheelbarrows to buy strawberries then I'll be watching my back. You know why? Because Soilent Green is made of DEAD PEOPLE! And, that's exactly where we may head with the plan these knuckleheads are embarking on. Even Obama. Who with any sense says that they aren't worried about the deficit? That's bonkers. This is the perfect storm #2. Now we have deflation, which is horrid, and then we will have hyperinflation which is horrid.
OK< I gotta go eat and my baby girl just got home, I will see ya all in the am! The January Effect list is rockin' already and remember the actual class is Wednesday and there is still time to sign up NOW!!! DO not delay, email - waxie@trendfund.com and we'll get you all set up! In the meantime, remember to rule! I expect we will get some pullin overall tomorrow, but I doubt its horrible, and some stuff will bust out to higher ground. I won't mention names, but I think I will have 1 to 3 more January Effect stocks I think can ROCK higher that I'll give TOMORROW!! Be there or be-ware!
RULE
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Oh, yeah, had another killer day, its scaryyyyyyyyy!!! WHEEEEEEEEE
Who can rule the markets? Sprinkle accts with Ka-chingos? Waxieman can, ohhhhhh the waxieman can!
WHEEEEE! Man, I LOVE THIS MARKET!!! Jeez louise, this market is owned by yours truly! WOWSA! I feel the the Fed, printing money!!! Hopefully it'll be worth something when the Fed gets through with all their insanity. Hell, I even had Oil long for a huge gain! Wowsa!
We are SMOKING!!! Dang. OK< enough puffery, let's talk turkey here. We have seen the years bottom, thats pretty clear(baring some news event that blows us up). And, I think there's a good shot we see DOW 10,000s before too long. See, thing is, all your naysayers who sent me emails saying I was wrong, you want to know how I knew YOU were wrong? Because some of you (quite a few) were the same folks who sent me emails saying that I was wrong when I was BEARISH! How's that for indicators!? Hehe. Look, there is no way the market has ultimately "bottomed" thats ridiculous, but for the time being Obama is the Mesiah, and you shouldn't mess with the Mesiah babies. I'm Jewish and I don't mess with the Mesiah, so there ya have it! Hehe! No disrespect to anyone meant, btw.
Today we learned that redefaults are running rampant! These are people who refinanced, or were prodded into doing so by the idiotic powers that be and still couldn't or wouldn't meet their mortgage payments. Why the government doesn't learn from it's mistakes is beyond me. I heard this great saying by Kabal Gibran the other day (he wrote "The Prophet") where he says that pain is something that you shouldn't run or hide from, you should own it and embrace it as it brings you closer to G-d. I like that. We are in such a rush to get out of our economic pain that we are doing anything to medicate it. It's just making things worse ultimately. For me, for our clients, I mean, its awesome, its creating the easiest (knock on wood) market to trade EVER, and in many ways that includes 1999! But, for the economy and for the country, this is horrible, its really really bad, boys and girls. It's so sad to me to watch the entire country get washed into nothingness by people who have no right making these decisions. But, what do I know? I'm just a dude, maybe I'm way off, ya know? Well, actually I do know, so its just a damn shame. I feel like I need to make $100 MIL just to be able to buy a few loathes of bread in the net 3 years! When we need wheelbarrows to buy strawberries then I'll be watching my back. You know why? Because Soilent Green is made of DEAD PEOPLE! And, that's exactly where we may head with the plan these knuckleheads are embarking on. Even Obama. Who with any sense says that they aren't worried about the deficit? That's bonkers. This is the perfect storm #2. Now we have deflation, which is horrid, and then we will have hyperinflation which is horrid.
OK< I gotta go eat and my baby girl just got home, I will see ya all in the am! The January Effect list is rockin' already and remember the actual class is Wednesday and there is still time to sign up NOW!!! DO not delay, email - waxie@trendfund.com and we'll get you all set up! In the meantime, remember to rule! I expect we will get some pullin overall tomorrow, but I doubt its horrible, and some stuff will bust out to higher ground. I won't mention names, but I think I will have 1 to 3 more January Effect stocks I think can ROCK higher that I'll give TOMORROW!! Be there or be-ware!
RULE
Michael "Waxie" Parness
Oh, yeah, had another killer day, its scaryyyyyyyyy!!! WHEEEEEEEEE
Who can rule the markets? Sprinkle accts with Ka-chingos? Waxieman can, ohhhhhh the waxieman can!
Saturday, December 06, 2008
MARKET...
I want to be VERY CLEAR, I am BULLISH here, I have been BULLISH since I said it after we hit basically the low of the year.
Please stop emailing me asking me what you should short, I would not short much here. If you want to short the market, I wish you the best, I think we have a good shot to see 10,000 on the DOW by Obama's inaugeration. That doesn't mean I won't TRADE short, but I don't want to be short stuff for more than a trade here.
Just remember, we are TRADERS, so I will switch if I see something that indicates that my opinion is wrong. I think we have a LOT of room to the upside on a LOT of stuff, thats why you should all sign up for the JANUARY EFFECTS class! It's this coming Wednesday, December 10th, and in fact for those that sign up now I may be sending a starter list on MONDAY! That list will have 2 or 3 plays off the list that I am buying IMMEDIATELY!
I'm telling you, I feel strongly that this years list is going to be potentially the BEST EVER. There are no guarantees, I could be wrong, but I warn you - miss the list at your own risk! We are already 1 for 1 with CY rocking. I think we'll go 15 for 15 when all is said and done!
So, ok, there ya have it, I've sent numerous emails saying that any dip here is buyable in my opinion. Friday was a GREAT day for clients in the chat room and Black belt as they got ALL The great plays we had. YOU should stop watching and start playing NOW!
And, stop telling me that you can't wait to short. TRADE THE MARKET! Stop being stubborn about it! YES, I am VERY VERY VERY bearish OVERALL, but I am a trader and I believe that we have seen the lows of 2008. That doesn't mean I am bullish overall, it means that from when I first said it through year end my bias is CLEARLY more bullish than bearish. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, won't be the first time, nor the last.
There ya go, I don't know how to be any clearer than this. OK?
Obama is looked upon as a Mesiah. The market rallies every time the guy opens his mouth, that has to be respected. Friday's reversal was textbook TRENDFUND.COM trading! We got it! So should you!
RULE!
And, sign up for the JANUARY EFFECTS LIST! Email - sally@trendfund.com
get yourself signed up TODAY! Do not delay, I will be giving several plays on MONDAY for the list!
Waxie
Please stop emailing me asking me what you should short, I would not short much here. If you want to short the market, I wish you the best, I think we have a good shot to see 10,000 on the DOW by Obama's inaugeration. That doesn't mean I won't TRADE short, but I don't want to be short stuff for more than a trade here.
Just remember, we are TRADERS, so I will switch if I see something that indicates that my opinion is wrong. I think we have a LOT of room to the upside on a LOT of stuff, thats why you should all sign up for the JANUARY EFFECTS class! It's this coming Wednesday, December 10th, and in fact for those that sign up now I may be sending a starter list on MONDAY! That list will have 2 or 3 plays off the list that I am buying IMMEDIATELY!
I'm telling you, I feel strongly that this years list is going to be potentially the BEST EVER. There are no guarantees, I could be wrong, but I warn you - miss the list at your own risk! We are already 1 for 1 with CY rocking. I think we'll go 15 for 15 when all is said and done!
So, ok, there ya have it, I've sent numerous emails saying that any dip here is buyable in my opinion. Friday was a GREAT day for clients in the chat room and Black belt as they got ALL The great plays we had. YOU should stop watching and start playing NOW!
And, stop telling me that you can't wait to short. TRADE THE MARKET! Stop being stubborn about it! YES, I am VERY VERY VERY bearish OVERALL, but I am a trader and I believe that we have seen the lows of 2008. That doesn't mean I am bullish overall, it means that from when I first said it through year end my bias is CLEARLY more bullish than bearish. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, won't be the first time, nor the last.
There ya go, I don't know how to be any clearer than this. OK?
Obama is looked upon as a Mesiah. The market rallies every time the guy opens his mouth, that has to be respected. Friday's reversal was textbook TRENDFUND.COM trading! We got it! So should you!
RULE!
And, sign up for the JANUARY EFFECTS LIST! Email - sally@trendfund.com
get yourself signed up TODAY! Do not delay, I will be giving several plays on MONDAY for the list!
Waxie
Friday, December 05, 2008
Catching up...
A few of you fine folks asked me to explain why I feel the banks and some other companies that have gotten bailouts are worthless and in time their share price should reflect that. Here goes;
The government is basically 1/2 way nationalizing the entire banking system, and is well on its way to doing the same with the insurers, and the automakers. My guess is they will also do some other financial institutions as well in the end.
The banks have had a massive recent rally on the, I believe, false notion that since the Fed won't let them fail it's a safe haven. While it's probably true that the Fed, foolishly as it will end up being, has done things to protect the companies themselves, the deals that they are cutting, in my opinion, can't possibly leave any shareholder value. The notion that they will make money on these deals is preposterous. They are basing it on an illusion that with the toxic assets off their books (which the Fed is responsible for) the banks will make money, pay huge interest premiums and the Fed owns a lot of stock that they can sell back to the banks, or in the market at a later date when things stabilize.
There are several flaws with this line of reasoning. #1 it assumes that things will stabilize in a reasonable period of time. #2 it assumes there will be buyers for the toxic assets or equity, and that the banks will be able to pay them the interest they have a deal for. #3 that the market will go up, and thus the banks share prices will appreciate #4 that there won't be a contraction in these sectors, which I think is inevitable. In NYC there's at least one back on every block and sometimes literally 2 or even 3. It's like Starbucks was. The banking sector will collapse under it's own weight.
Every point and illusion the Fed has is fatally flawed. I could go into great details on each subject, but suffice to say that the Fed has diluted the shareholder equity, taken large chunks of potential profits away from shareholders, and left a lot of debt still on the books that will need to be written off in most instances. Today after the close JPM announced they are participating in some FDIC backed debt sales. If the banks were healthy they would not be participating in these programs. There are so many trillions of dollars in bad defaulting debt in these companies that they are worthless from what I've seen. The reason why they don't loan to each other is because they don't have the money, and no one is coming to borrow it. Americans are finally saving money, that's a very good thing. The government doesn't want us to save money, it wants us to spend money. That's what got us into this mess to begin with. LEVERAGE. So, now instead of these institutions being able to have 50 X's leverage they are allowed up to 20 X's. Let me tell you something, 20 X's is insane. It should be NO LEVERAGE. That way you get clean financials and no bubbles. Also, a lot of people are taking their money out of banks and putting it into treasuries, so these banks can't collect fees or use the money that's being funneled into the Fed's hands. This same setup has occurred with AIG, and will soon happen to GM and F. If C was worth a dime it would be $25 right now. C is one name people want to own bank wise, so for the stock to stall out up til now is a very bad sign longer term. Assuming we get a rally January Effect style, C may very well make it to $10s or higher, but it's got no reral value to shareholders and I believe that anyone holding it for more than a trade will get crushed when the proverbial sh&( hits the fan. Next week we'll hear how the market shrugged off bad news and thus we have indeed bottomed! Yes, and the tooth fairy is real and leaves you Tarp money under your pillow! Ah huh. In the meantime, I do feel the bottom is in until Obama is sworn in and perhaps a bit more. Then its death spiral for this market, mark it down! RULE Waxie
The government is basically 1/2 way nationalizing the entire banking system, and is well on its way to doing the same with the insurers, and the automakers. My guess is they will also do some other financial institutions as well in the end.
The banks have had a massive recent rally on the, I believe, false notion that since the Fed won't let them fail it's a safe haven. While it's probably true that the Fed, foolishly as it will end up being, has done things to protect the companies themselves, the deals that they are cutting, in my opinion, can't possibly leave any shareholder value. The notion that they will make money on these deals is preposterous. They are basing it on an illusion that with the toxic assets off their books (which the Fed is responsible for) the banks will make money, pay huge interest premiums and the Fed owns a lot of stock that they can sell back to the banks, or in the market at a later date when things stabilize.
There are several flaws with this line of reasoning. #1 it assumes that things will stabilize in a reasonable period of time. #2 it assumes there will be buyers for the toxic assets or equity, and that the banks will be able to pay them the interest they have a deal for. #3 that the market will go up, and thus the banks share prices will appreciate #4 that there won't be a contraction in these sectors, which I think is inevitable. In NYC there's at least one back on every block and sometimes literally 2 or even 3. It's like Starbucks was. The banking sector will collapse under it's own weight.
Every point and illusion the Fed has is fatally flawed. I could go into great details on each subject, but suffice to say that the Fed has diluted the shareholder equity, taken large chunks of potential profits away from shareholders, and left a lot of debt still on the books that will need to be written off in most instances. Today after the close JPM announced they are participating in some FDIC backed debt sales. If the banks were healthy they would not be participating in these programs. There are so many trillions of dollars in bad defaulting debt in these companies that they are worthless from what I've seen. The reason why they don't loan to each other is because they don't have the money, and no one is coming to borrow it. Americans are finally saving money, that's a very good thing. The government doesn't want us to save money, it wants us to spend money. That's what got us into this mess to begin with. LEVERAGE. So, now instead of these institutions being able to have 50 X's leverage they are allowed up to 20 X's. Let me tell you something, 20 X's is insane. It should be NO LEVERAGE. That way you get clean financials and no bubbles. Also, a lot of people are taking their money out of banks and putting it into treasuries, so these banks can't collect fees or use the money that's being funneled into the Fed's hands. This same setup has occurred with AIG, and will soon happen to GM and F. If C was worth a dime it would be $25 right now. C is one name people want to own bank wise, so for the stock to stall out up til now is a very bad sign longer term. Assuming we get a rally January Effect style, C may very well make it to $10s or higher, but it's got no reral value to shareholders and I believe that anyone holding it for more than a trade will get crushed when the proverbial sh&( hits the fan. Next week we'll hear how the market shrugged off bad news and thus we have indeed bottomed! Yes, and the tooth fairy is real and leaves you Tarp money under your pillow! Ah huh. In the meantime, I do feel the bottom is in until Obama is sworn in and perhaps a bit more. Then its death spiral for this market, mark it down! RULE Waxie
WHEEEEEEEE!!!!
WOWSAAAA!
We completely obliterated the market AGAIN!!!!
Another day, another HUGE $ day is all I have to sayyyyyyyyyyyy!!!
Have I said recently how much I LOVE this market? How about THAT gap fade? WOWSA!
Let's see, we called;
OIH long
CHK long
BIDU long
CENX long
UPL long
RTP long
RIO long
AA long
AFL long
AB long
V long
All at or right off their lows!!!
Clients are going BALLISTIC! My account has gone ballistic! IT IS EN FUEGO!!!!
OK, if it wasn't Friday I wouldn't be so boastful, but I am going to Yoga in a bit so I will relax, just very excited about this market and our ability to navigate it! We are simply killing this market. I told you we bottomed for the year, gap downs are infinately buyable here. The bigger the better. On the 10th I'm personally doing the JANUARY EFFECTS class, I suggest you ALL sign up for it, there are so many great opportunities and it's got a money back guarantee. Don't miss out what could be the greatest January Effect EVER, and that's not an exageration! Will it? Tune in to find out and learn how to RULE THE FREAKIN' MARKETS with us!
Have a great weekend, I have to go Holiday shopping, fortunately I can afford it now!
Waxie
We completely obliterated the market AGAIN!!!!
Another day, another HUGE $ day is all I have to sayyyyyyyyyyyy!!!
Have I said recently how much I LOVE this market? How about THAT gap fade? WOWSA!
Let's see, we called;
OIH long
CHK long
BIDU long
CENX long
UPL long
RTP long
RIO long
AA long
AFL long
AB long
V long
All at or right off their lows!!!
Clients are going BALLISTIC! My account has gone ballistic! IT IS EN FUEGO!!!!
OK, if it wasn't Friday I wouldn't be so boastful, but I am going to Yoga in a bit so I will relax, just very excited about this market and our ability to navigate it! We are simply killing this market. I told you we bottomed for the year, gap downs are infinately buyable here. The bigger the better. On the 10th I'm personally doing the JANUARY EFFECTS class, I suggest you ALL sign up for it, there are so many great opportunities and it's got a money back guarantee. Don't miss out what could be the greatest January Effect EVER, and that's not an exageration! Will it? Tune in to find out and learn how to RULE THE FREAKIN' MARKETS with us!
Have a great weekend, I have to go Holiday shopping, fortunately I can afford it now!
Waxie
Thursday, December 04, 2008
OK, I hate to be all doom and gloom, but...GRIM REAPER WAXIE is here...
Today during the hearings for this RIDICULOUS nonsense bailout of dead companies we hda the first signs of discention when there were protestors heard. Perhaps they will do what they should and let them fail, the same way they should have let the banks fail. I will make this prediction right here and right now - at least 50% of ALL banks will be NATIONALIZED within the next 12 to 18 months. In fact, probably all of them will be. I've said similar things in the past, but I want to be succinct. Nearly every bank is DONE. The crazy thing is that that sector is WORTHLESS. Let me tell you something, this is what I call a CRACK market. Look at the energy sector, the prize sector to a TON of fund managers who keep trying to bottom pick it. Oil may fall to $20, people have no idea, they think "oh, that's great!" Yeah, it is, consumers will benefit from that for sure, but we are in a DEPRESSION, not a recession! I am so tired of hearing about recessions, let's call this what it is. For months everyone asked "so, are we in a recession?" Then they get a stupid report that says "yeah, the recession started in December 2007!" Duh, wow, that's amazing, who knew? OK, fine, but now the notion is that we at some point will come out of the recession and you want to be positioned for when that happens. Folks, I hate to be the grim reaper of REALITY, but we aren't coming out of this, we are in a DEPRESSION that will last for several years. The notion that we are anywhere near a place where anyone should be buying a single share of stock. I guess you can buy SKF, DUG, etc. which are Ultra SHORT ETFs, I would approve of that! Today was a nice day, we traded long side early after the gap down and the gap worked well, then we bought FAZ (3 x's short the financials) and shorted MA and rocked on the short side. This is a total TRADERS market, and that's all. Investors are going to be very upset when they realize that they should have sold, that there is NO SHOT we are EVER going back to highs. Yes, I said it - we will NEVER see DOW 14,000 again. We will never see Nasdaq 5000 again. If you think we will, you're on crack with the market. It's not happening. DOW has a better shot of seeing 500 then it does of seeing 14,000. Nasdaq will see below 500, so that's a given, and it has a better shot of that then seeing 2500 again. Even that is unlikely EVER. And, before you say "but last night you said we had seen the bottom for 2008, and I do believe that that is likely, but like I've said that there's no way I would buy stocks long for more than a trade short term. You couldn't pay me enough to do that. The market is and remains and will remain VASTLY overpriced until its under 5000 and even then we'll have to see. And, its NEVER COMING BACK, so don't think it is. As always, I hope I'm wrong, I would love us to rally hard, get to 12,000! That'd be so awesome! It's not going to happen, but it would be great to get emails saying how horrible I am, hardy har har! Since we trade we really love the market to move both up and down, and the higher we go, the lower we can go and vice versa, and that's why you are a SUCKER if you invest. S - U - C - K - E - R. The best from today's hearing was when they asked the CEO's of the "Big (SMALL) 3 automakers" how they got their and how they plan on getting back, and they all explained how they drove and how they had to wake up early to drive back and drive til midnight! Wow, that's SO HORRIBLE! My gawd! I feel SO bad for them! Poor poor bastards! Wow, they really sacrificed for the good of the country! Wow, I am so touched by this, you have NO idea! ANd, I'm serious guys and gals, I really am, I'm not being sarcastic, I am so moved by their gestures and their empathy with the "common" folks like us! Even better? The ads they AGAIN spend MILLIONS on in the papers to promote their BS quest for our money. "If you can bail out Wall Street, you should bail out Main Street!" Really? Oh, yeah, right, I get it, because they stole our money once they should steal it again! Thing is, the only thing about the banking system is that that really does impact everyone. The automakers? Please, you can sugarcoat it all you want, it does NOT impact MOST people in this country and it certainly isn't TOO BIG TO FAIL! All they say is the same BS "this would be a catastrophe!" Yeah, sure it would. I don't get how people are so dumb. So, the reason why they "can't" allow them to go bankrupt is that people won't buy cars from a bankrupt company, it'll ruin confidence in the financing!. Really? HOw come Chrysler went bankrupt and came out of it OK back in the '70s? Even better, RIGHT NOW who has confidence in GM or F? RIGHT NOW who is buying their cars? RIGHT NOW this is total nonsense. They 100% can and should be allowed to go bankrupt. That is the only real solution that won't lead to chaos. And, they have these absurd ideas that "oh, we'll take $1 salaries!" Great, you know what, I'll run my business for FREE! Just let me make $100 MIL for a year and I'll take $1 salary! What a joke, they really think the American people are idiots. They must. It's pure insanity. Yes, they are sacrificing so much! And, oh, the unions, wow, what a sacrifice they are making! Too big to fail? Yeah, ok, how much weight do I need to gain to be "too big to fail"? If I gain like 50 pounds, am I too big to fail then? Can I apply for $37 BILLION with a B? Hell, I'll take $370,000 to gain 50 pounds! For $37 MIL I'll gain 150 and for $37 BIL I will become the fattest man on earth! I WILL BE TOO BIG TO FAIL!!!
I hope we rally to 10,000. Please please please. FREE MONEY short, it'll be raining money on us. I am like the government these days - I AM PRINTING MONEY! I feel like every day I am getting repaid for having to watch booyahhead and all these other knuckleheads talk about how this or that will happen and the market will go up! As you know by now, the fact that the market can't go up on it's own is the #1 issue and the #1 reason that its TOAST long term. You can only be on a respirator for so long, at some point they have to take you off and when they do chances are, the market is DEAD. So says the GRIM REAPER they call - WAXIE! RULE baby, rule! We're starting several initiatives; Worldseriesoftrading.com, The Short Trader, and we have the January Effects which you all know about. We sold 1/2 our CY today for a HUGE gainer! Nice and sweet, babies, nice and sweet! Let's see what shakes from here! It's time to RULE THE FREAKIN' MARKETS WITH US!
I hope we rally to 10,000. Please please please. FREE MONEY short, it'll be raining money on us. I am like the government these days - I AM PRINTING MONEY! I feel like every day I am getting repaid for having to watch booyahhead and all these other knuckleheads talk about how this or that will happen and the market will go up! As you know by now, the fact that the market can't go up on it's own is the #1 issue and the #1 reason that its TOAST long term. You can only be on a respirator for so long, at some point they have to take you off and when they do chances are, the market is DEAD. So says the GRIM REAPER they call - WAXIE! RULE baby, rule! We're starting several initiatives; Worldseriesoftrading.com, The Short Trader, and we have the January Effects which you all know about. We sold 1/2 our CY today for a HUGE gainer! Nice and sweet, babies, nice and sweet! Let's see what shakes from here! It's time to RULE THE FREAKIN' MARKETS WITH US!
Wednesday, December 03, 2008
Wow, you guys are more bearish then me!
Hehe! I got a TON of emails from you guys saying how I'm wrong and we'll see new lows in December. Wow, tell ya, used to be I'd get that many emails when I was bearish, now I get them when I am "bullish" or at least less bearish! Hehe! Well, ok, thing is, we VERY easily could see new lows, but just remember that nothing ever goes in a straight line and typically by this time most fund managers have dumped their unwanted losers. I know, I know, a lot is being written about how redemptions are going to dump the market into year end, and like I said, it very well may happen, I just don't see the advantage here of being overly bearish. Remember, I've been bearish the whole entire trip DOWN! I've had my best year in a long time, made a TON (more than a ton actually) this year and nothing goes in a straight line. So, yeah, we very well may go to new lows, but I am not so sure, and I think at least you are 50/50 here as a bear into Obama's inaugeration. The markets worship the next President and every time he opens his mouth we rally. Do you think we'll see tankage into the HOPE that he turns things around? There's a little over a month until he is sworn in. IF we do tank here, great, we'll catch the bounce into that, but my guess is that the lows have been see into year end baring some news they can't shrug off. That's possible, but there's a lot of people buying stuff and a lot of shorts covering, and again - nothing goes in a straight line. So, my point here mainly is to get you off the idea that you should just short at will, as though we can't ever rally. Market isn't likely going to zero and if it does then it means the world blew up and we're looking for Omega Man! In the meantime, I stick with my call and do not recommend being invested here long or short, I think CASH here, trading intraday and short swings is your best bet. Stay nimble. Trust me, I'm not going out and buying stocks, I just think at some point you have to take profits and wait for better entries. Already FSLR and others are providing nicer entries. Hopefully they get another push higher, that'd be awesome and we can then get back in when the time is "right" and ride them down further.
Did you guys know that Booyah heads "Charitable Trust" started the year with roughly $4.4 MIL and now has under $2.5 MIL? Maybe we should all send his charitable trust some charity! Sure as hell needs it! Amazing that people actually watch a guy who is potentially the worst stock picker in the world. Booyaherica! In Booyah we trust! CNBC runs this whole campaign around a guy who is down 50% on the year! He's underperforming the market! That's horrid, dudes, horrid! I'm moving to Kudlowmerica, its a funnier place to live! Don't get overly bearish, or bullish folks. Remember that opinions don't make a trader money, detachment and egolessness do!
RULE
Waxie
Did you guys know that Booyah heads "Charitable Trust" started the year with roughly $4.4 MIL and now has under $2.5 MIL? Maybe we should all send his charitable trust some charity! Sure as hell needs it! Amazing that people actually watch a guy who is potentially the worst stock picker in the world. Booyaherica! In Booyah we trust! CNBC runs this whole campaign around a guy who is down 50% on the year! He's underperforming the market! That's horrid, dudes, horrid! I'm moving to Kudlowmerica, its a funnier place to live! Don't get overly bearish, or bullish folks. Remember that opinions don't make a trader money, detachment and egolessness do!
RULE
Waxie
THE BOTTOM IS IN!
FOr the year. Even I think we've seen the low for 2008. I think any decent pullback here is a BUY BUY BUY. I keep getting emails asking me about shorting stocks and do I still like FSLR to $50. YES, I do! But, I wouldn't short it here, just read my post from last night as to why. Traders get killed fighting the market and right now shorts are covering and longs are scouring for so-called bargains. Plus, Booyah still hasn't said that the bottom is in off his last/most recent absurd call, and he is ALWAYS a great contrarian indicator. It's funny, today he said at 2:30 that you can't own RIG and SLB and both closed over $1.50 higher by days end then when he said that. He is such a great contrarian indicator, you gotta love it!
Today's gap down was a GIMME! One of the easiest buys ever! Off yesterday there was no shot we were going to gap down over 100 pts and then keep going. YOU need to know how to read a tape. I hope we gap down again tomorrow, its another guy. Right now the goal is to find laggards and buy pullbacks. Until that changes that's my plan into year end. Yeah, we'll get overbought in a jiff and play the short side, and we'll always trade short intraday, but right now I think trying to TOP PICK is a mistake. Monday we had that massive selloff and we played that, but if you look at market action here I think right or wrong its foolish to try to short a market that seemingly wants to go higher. Bad news can strike any day and rock us, but even that is being shrugged off. I will be surprised if we aren't at a yearly low. And, you know I am the biggest Bear there is! So, stop asking me if you should short FSLR. Go ahead, be my guest, I have no interest in swinging shorts here, I would much rather be making moolah on CY long for a January Affect, then trying to figure out when FSLR will top out. It might be tomorrow, but then so what I'll miss a move or two, thats ok, there will be much easier entries and much easier time to be strong to the short side, in my opinion now isn't one of them. Funny thing is, Bill Miller hasn't been right for a long time, but people respect him, hehe. Guy says the bottom is in, this is the same guy who's fund owned ABK and MBI and all the banks and is CRUSHED! Him calling a bottom is like booyah calling one! Hopefully we get some follow through, like I said a nice gap down again would be an easy fade. We probably don't go very far tomorrow either way, sideways action, so if so look for laggards and stocks that may break out. MGM, LVS are two to watch, I have a big list this year, but you'll have to sign up for the JANUARY EFFECTS class! Class will give both stocks and options, 10 stocks and at least 5 option plays. I think it's gonna rock! Email - sally@trendfund.com for more info and to sign up! Sign up NOW, the class is gonna get crowded fast! RULE! Waxie
Today's gap down was a GIMME! One of the easiest buys ever! Off yesterday there was no shot we were going to gap down over 100 pts and then keep going. YOU need to know how to read a tape. I hope we gap down again tomorrow, its another guy. Right now the goal is to find laggards and buy pullbacks. Until that changes that's my plan into year end. Yeah, we'll get overbought in a jiff and play the short side, and we'll always trade short intraday, but right now I think trying to TOP PICK is a mistake. Monday we had that massive selloff and we played that, but if you look at market action here I think right or wrong its foolish to try to short a market that seemingly wants to go higher. Bad news can strike any day and rock us, but even that is being shrugged off. I will be surprised if we aren't at a yearly low. And, you know I am the biggest Bear there is! So, stop asking me if you should short FSLR. Go ahead, be my guest, I have no interest in swinging shorts here, I would much rather be making moolah on CY long for a January Affect, then trying to figure out when FSLR will top out. It might be tomorrow, but then so what I'll miss a move or two, thats ok, there will be much easier entries and much easier time to be strong to the short side, in my opinion now isn't one of them. Funny thing is, Bill Miller hasn't been right for a long time, but people respect him, hehe. Guy says the bottom is in, this is the same guy who's fund owned ABK and MBI and all the banks and is CRUSHED! Him calling a bottom is like booyah calling one! Hopefully we get some follow through, like I said a nice gap down again would be an easy fade. We probably don't go very far tomorrow either way, sideways action, so if so look for laggards and stocks that may break out. MGM, LVS are two to watch, I have a big list this year, but you'll have to sign up for the JANUARY EFFECTS class! Class will give both stocks and options, 10 stocks and at least 5 option plays. I think it's gonna rock! Email - sally@trendfund.com for more info and to sign up! Sign up NOW, the class is gonna get crowded fast! RULE! Waxie
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
GM and the other lies, and the trade on it...
OK, do I really have to rage more against the machine about GM and F bailouts? I will for a minute just so I can sleep, I simply can not believe the crock of BS we are being fed on a daily basis now. GM, F are too big to fail! It's funny, when they bailed out BSC and AIG and C it sure doesn't seem like it did much good! Oh, I forgot, this is ALL because they DIDN'T save LEH! OHHHHH, I almost forgot, sorry! What a total LIE, my gawd, I can't believe that they all say the same thing, like they are Stepford Leaders or somethin'! F wants $9 BIL but "hopes" to not use the funds! ROFLMAO! Sure, ah huh, they want the $9 BIL to look at it1 And, GM's plan looks stellar! Wow, amazing, in ten days they have figured out how to save the company by 2010 when for years they couldn't figure out how to make it work! Oh, yeah, and they want $18 BIL! Nancy Pelosi then comes on TV and says "Bankruptcy is not an option" Why? She says, and I quote "it takes too long"! This is really a sad state. I have to say, if there was an alternate universe where I could go where the OLD US of A existed, I would fly there tomorrow. This is DISGUSTING. I used to have a friend who said that he didn't mind being lied to, just don't do it thinking that he didn't know you were lying. Who believes this BS? Anyone? Bankruptcy is not an option, but giving $27 BIL to start for DEAD BUSINESSES is? And, that $27 BIL will last for 6 months maximum and then they will come back asking for another $27 BIL, and another, and another. And, nice of Rick Waggoner to say he will take $1 for pay! WOw, what a guy! THere was one guy on CNBC today who actually said the most obvious thing, and something I've been saying here for a while. How can you justify giving away all this money, expecting us taxpayers to be on the hook for it and most of the country makes far less than the auto workers, and certainly less than this incompetent executives at these companies? How can you expect people who are struggling to survive to give up some of their hard wages to companies that are GHOST companies, where no one wants their products? Yes, but bankruptcy is out the question because it would take too long, and besides, GM and F are TOO BIG TO FAIL! What a joke. I hate being lied to, its insulting. DOes Nancy Pelosi believe this BS? If she does she's dumber than a doornail. DOes Paulson really believe that the taxpayer is getting good deals on all this money? I doubt it, but he says it with a smile, so it's ok! Total, total joke, makes me ill. Doesn't anyone in power realize that when the masses that are on the hook figure out that they are on the hook that they are risking some very very bad stuff going down. Hell, if I was making $30,000 a year and found out that I had to pay more taxes, or my money was worth less because the government spent 7 TRIL with a T, soon to be 25 to 30 TRIL with a T on Paulson's buddies and other businesses that they hand picked, I think I'd be pretty freakin' pissed! I have to say, I am very disappointed with the President elect. He was voted in on the idea that he represented change and so far all he's done is surround himself with the same old retreads we've all seen before. It's very sad that the guy hasn't even taken office and he's deviated from many of the platforms he was elected on. I am sadly disillusioned.
I'm also tired, and cranky, hehe, my oldest is sick and it's exhausting dealing with your sick child, if you can relate!
As far as trades go, I would look at TM as a fade when a deal is announced, its running here based on the GM bailout, which makes no sense whatsoever but that's what happened today. GM is tough becuase you can't borrow it that I know of. It's going to $1 or less when this all clears and frankly is a great sell the news play, but the options have a lot of juice. what you could do if you want is buy some way in the money puts, like hte $9s or $10s for February, or the $12.50s and just ride them if you like that idea. There's always risk that the stock goes up, but I really doubt it can last even if it does once they announce a deal. Obviously if they make some stupid crazy deal, which is possible, then all bets are off, but otherwise this is a perfect sell the news scenario. F no play I can come up with. TM is one of those stocks that is defying gravity in this market, it should be $20 to $25 and yet is still $60s. Old values die hard, I guess. Either way, should sell the news when it comes as well. Should be next week sometime if not sooner, and that's a good entry I think for a trade with a stop at around $67 just in case. Would look for $55 area potentially.
RULE!
Waxie
Thanks for letting me share! :)
I'm also tired, and cranky, hehe, my oldest is sick and it's exhausting dealing with your sick child, if you can relate!
As far as trades go, I would look at TM as a fade when a deal is announced, its running here based on the GM bailout, which makes no sense whatsoever but that's what happened today. GM is tough becuase you can't borrow it that I know of. It's going to $1 or less when this all clears and frankly is a great sell the news play, but the options have a lot of juice. what you could do if you want is buy some way in the money puts, like hte $9s or $10s for February, or the $12.50s and just ride them if you like that idea. There's always risk that the stock goes up, but I really doubt it can last even if it does once they announce a deal. Obviously if they make some stupid crazy deal, which is possible, then all bets are off, but otherwise this is a perfect sell the news scenario. F no play I can come up with. TM is one of those stocks that is defying gravity in this market, it should be $20 to $25 and yet is still $60s. Old values die hard, I guess. Either way, should sell the news when it comes as well. Should be next week sometime if not sooner, and that's a good entry I think for a trade with a stop at around $67 just in case. Would look for $55 area potentially.
RULE!
Waxie
Thanks for letting me share! :)
REALITY AND TRADER REALITY...
Tonight let's discuss...the difference between reality and trader reality a bit. It's very important in this market, or any market frankly, to know the difference. I get asked a lot how I can trade from the long side when I am so utterly disgustingly bearish overall. It's not easy at times. If I stop and think about it then I couldn't, I mean I really feel that this market is more vastly overvalued then just about any time in the history of the market. It very well might be the most overvalued ever. I'm not exagerating. It's interesting, today Bill Gross from Pimco, who CNBC has on all the time for in depth opinions said that he feels that the market is overvalued. CNBC mentioned it but didn't give it a lot of air time. It's frustrating that there is such a bias, but it's ok, as a trader its better for us for the market to stay as high as it can for as long as it can. Eventually it'll see the other side of 5000 in 2009 more than likely, but for now the more 270 point nonsense ralies we get, the better! As a trader you need to wipe the slate clean every day. There are days, honestly, where I have a harder time doing it then others. Today was tough because we had that mid day crushing where the market went red briefly and sucked a lot of shorts (including me) in. I thought we would roll over, which was wrong obviously. And, that's the thing about this market, its not like any other market I've ever seen or traded. I've made a boatload of money this year, my best year in many years, but the thing is, it's a tough market on any given day. What you have to remember is that the market WANTS to go up. So, at any given time it'll do just that, for often no rhyme or reason. Look at GS, which we've crushed for huge profits. It closed today only down like .75. I want to reiterate how absurd GS is. No one who owns it or likes it has any real reason to own it or like it. They have NO earnings, will not have earnings for a long time, and have huge debt burdens in a DEAD business. In order for GS to justify a $65 price they have to earn at least $5 or $6 a share. And, that's even expensive historically for GS or any broker or bank that is mature. Reality is they will have to ultimately earn somewhere around $8 or $9 to justify a $65 price point. The chances of GS earning that much in the next 5 years is VERY remote. I think I'm being generous saying very remote, I really think there's literally no shot. Today the WSJ said that they would report a loss of $2 BIL this quarter. Do you know there were "analysts" on CNBC today saying that GS is a buy. Why? The usual, they are the smartest guys and will figure it out! Some knucklehead on CNBC said that he has a $100 price target on it. Why? I mean, are you kidding me? GS at $100 on NO earnings for the foreseeable future? Hence my point, you can't use logic in this market, and you can't get stuck on reality. Reality is GS is worth $3 a share. Yes, thats reality. Most of the banks are worthless, so $3 may be generous for GS. And, I honestly feel that GS will see under $10 at some point. But, it may trade to $100 before that happens and so if you just take GS short then you have to be prepared to ride it for a potentially huge loss before you get a gain, and if I am wrong then you get smoked. So, trader reality is, you short it when the time is right, or you short it and be willing to stop out and reset if your timing is off. And, you even go LONG GS, which we have, when the time is right. Hell, GS could even end up on the January Effects list! Doubt it, fyi, but hey, anything is possible! Speaking of which, our 1st January Effect stock is ROCKING! Hopefully you guys all signed up for it, the class is next week and you will probably regret it if you miss it! SIgn up NOW for the class, I think I have some really nice plays for us. CY was the 1st one, and so far so good! We'll see what shakes. Wednesday it'll be interesting, if we gap down it should be fadeable, if we gap up then it'll get a bit hairy. I really am not sure here. I think we can go higher, but I certainly wouldn't go out on a limb, this is one of those times where I am neutral and try to trade intraday hopefully on the right side of things. So, I stay neutral and watch for choice trades. We'll get some clarity soon. Did anyone notice that its now a clear, so far at least, trend that when Obama speaks the market rallies into him opening his mouth? That's why I think we should get a rally into his inaugaration that is very profitable. And, then when people realize that he's not the Mesiah, he's just a dude we call President Obama, the market will get the massive selloff I think is a pretty sure thing in 2009. We'll see soon enough, but at least we shouldn't get totally crushed market wise for a while here. That's a very good thing for us. Very good.
Pick your spots, and trade to win! RULE! Michael "Waxie" Parness
Pick your spots, and trade to win! RULE! Michael "Waxie" Parness
Monday, December 01, 2008
GOLD
One more thing, today is the reason why I don't like Gold. I think GOld has a better shot of seeing $400 or $300 then $1200 or $1300. All the gold bugs are wrong in my opinion and its not, for me, a valid investment. EVERYTHING has gone right for Gold to go up pretty much and it is nearer to its lows than its highs. That's not a good sign. That's just my opinion, Gold bugs take this personally, but I think GOld sucks as an investment and would not buy it.
:)
:)
The market, and the upcoming Symposium on Dealing with Crisis...
OK, first off thank you so much for all the feedback and ideas on dealing with asset protection and crisis. I think I got tentative bookings from some very cool people today to speak at this event. I'm figuring late January, early February, stay tuned...
The market is obviously very unstable. A lot of the buying at the end of last week was due to end of month window dressing, very light holiday trading and vastly oversold markets. Today's selling was on much higher volume and frankly there were no buyers to be found anywhere. The good thing is, this should set us up nicely for the January Effect class we're giving December 10th, you should all sign up for it, there is a money back guarantee on the list if it loses.
The problem is, we continue to sell off so easily and yet you have all these total ridiculous pundits saying that we're putting in a "bottoming process"! What the F are you talking about? Really? 680 point drops are part of the bottoming process? In what alternate universe as you talking about? HELLO! HELLO! This isn't a bottoming process, there is absolutely no shot we have seen any kind of bottom long term. To keep saying it doesn't make it true! Today we learned that we've been in a recession since December 2007! Wow, amazing, I'm SHOCKED! I've only said that since January 2008! My gawd, it's like I'm living in a Kafka novel sometimes! Best was then they all said that the average recession only lasts 16 months, so we should be buying stocks NOW, since March is when we should come out of this! ROFLMAO! Now I am hullucinating! Or, they are, they must be smoking CRACK or eating Shrooms or something. Are you nuts? March we are going to come out of the recession? ROFLMAO! I wisht hat were even possible, but that is the DUMBEST thing I've heard yet! Sometimes (most times) I can't watch TV all day without taking some kind of aspirin. There's no one on earth with 1/2 a brain who would make these types of proclamation. Yet, these people get their own shows! Yes, we'll be out of the recession by March! Yup, you right, 100%. Oy vey!
Watch MA and V here, they both look like they are going to chuck it. Even before today I felt that credit cards were the next shoe to drop. Who can afford to pay MA 10 to 20% interest anymore? We are moving through a deflationary period where people will smartly SAVE MONEY, not spend money and take credit at those types of rates and if that is the case then MA will see my $50 or less target sooner rather than later. V should see $20s if I'm right. Timing is everything, though and I haven't called them yet! So,,,,we'll see. Oil looks like it wants a lot lower, pretty amazing the demand destruction. Best thing for AMericans to do is save and the real silver lining is people are saving and hopefully will continue to do so. The government, ironically, wants people to spend money and not save! Oy.
GM, F on the hill tomorrow trying to steal more taxpayer money. I think there's a trade on GM, but we'll see. Was hoping it would rally harder into the bailout that is almost sure to come so we could short it. Now we'll see what happens!
Best booyah today! Says C was good deal for government, and seemed to incinuate that C might be a worthwhile investment. Amazing, this is same guy who recommended you buy BSC at $70s or $80s, said WB was one of his Fortress Four, and has been DEAD WRONG the whole way down. Yes, buy C, its a screaming buy! NOT! We had it with calls and made a MINT, but long term this thing aint going up in my opinion. Couldl it see $10 to $12? Yup, it sure could, but it could also see .10 cents or .12 cents! (or .01 cents or .012 cents).
I'm wondering, if I was ever on Kudlow's show, would he call me a GREAT AMERICAN? He seems to call anyone who agrees with him that. What is a great American anyway? I tell ya, whenever Paulson speaks we tank, hehe, its pretty funny, jeez. The guy is like the Grim Reaper! Hank, let me help ya here, bud, when you LIE constantly, no one believes ya! Therefore when you say your BS that everything is coming up roses, people get POed and disgusted and sell. Of course, what will happen here is the government is going to announce another stimulus package, send the market up again and then we'll sell that as well. Then Obama will get ready for taking office and we'll rally into that and then we'll sell that. Has anyone but me noticed that we sell every piece of news? I'm watching Cuddley bear now, everyone says we are closer to the bottom and now is a good time to buy! I guess I'm the crazy one, cause I just don't get how anyone with half a brain would think this is a market that is almost bottomed. I guess it is, I mean, its closer to a bottom now then it was when it was 14,000, or 12,000, or 10,000, or 9000, or 8500! Oy, Cuddy just said it again! I can't take it, he says we're 4 months away from being out of the recession! I can't take it, please someone help meeeeeeeee!!! OK, so now, let me give you my take here for tomorrow. I think best thing would be we gap down hard and then reverse. We may gap UP, though, and that should be fadeable for a trade at least. I'm hoping we get another leg down, maybe get below 7800 area and then try to get a move into year end for us and rock with the January Effect list!
In the meantime, just remember - don't believe the hype and get suckered into investing, folks, we are no where near a bottom. What's gonna happen when we get to 4500 or lower you ask? They will all say the same exact things! Ever hear the saying "even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while" or "even a broken clock is right twice a day". I think both are appropriate in this case. I'm gonna be back on air soon. I've decided it's time for reality to be brought to the airwaves. Can you guys do me a favor? Just send a note to all TV stations not to carry what Paulson says? Just ignore him, maybe he'll go away then, ya know?
RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
The market is obviously very unstable. A lot of the buying at the end of last week was due to end of month window dressing, very light holiday trading and vastly oversold markets. Today's selling was on much higher volume and frankly there were no buyers to be found anywhere. The good thing is, this should set us up nicely for the January Effect class we're giving December 10th, you should all sign up for it, there is a money back guarantee on the list if it loses.
The problem is, we continue to sell off so easily and yet you have all these total ridiculous pundits saying that we're putting in a "bottoming process"! What the F are you talking about? Really? 680 point drops are part of the bottoming process? In what alternate universe as you talking about? HELLO! HELLO! This isn't a bottoming process, there is absolutely no shot we have seen any kind of bottom long term. To keep saying it doesn't make it true! Today we learned that we've been in a recession since December 2007! Wow, amazing, I'm SHOCKED! I've only said that since January 2008! My gawd, it's like I'm living in a Kafka novel sometimes! Best was then they all said that the average recession only lasts 16 months, so we should be buying stocks NOW, since March is when we should come out of this! ROFLMAO! Now I am hullucinating! Or, they are, they must be smoking CRACK or eating Shrooms or something. Are you nuts? March we are going to come out of the recession? ROFLMAO! I wisht hat were even possible, but that is the DUMBEST thing I've heard yet! Sometimes (most times) I can't watch TV all day without taking some kind of aspirin. There's no one on earth with 1/2 a brain who would make these types of proclamation. Yet, these people get their own shows! Yes, we'll be out of the recession by March! Yup, you right, 100%. Oy vey!
Watch MA and V here, they both look like they are going to chuck it. Even before today I felt that credit cards were the next shoe to drop. Who can afford to pay MA 10 to 20% interest anymore? We are moving through a deflationary period where people will smartly SAVE MONEY, not spend money and take credit at those types of rates and if that is the case then MA will see my $50 or less target sooner rather than later. V should see $20s if I'm right. Timing is everything, though and I haven't called them yet! So,,,,we'll see. Oil looks like it wants a lot lower, pretty amazing the demand destruction. Best thing for AMericans to do is save and the real silver lining is people are saving and hopefully will continue to do so. The government, ironically, wants people to spend money and not save! Oy.
GM, F on the hill tomorrow trying to steal more taxpayer money. I think there's a trade on GM, but we'll see. Was hoping it would rally harder into the bailout that is almost sure to come so we could short it. Now we'll see what happens!
Best booyah today! Says C was good deal for government, and seemed to incinuate that C might be a worthwhile investment. Amazing, this is same guy who recommended you buy BSC at $70s or $80s, said WB was one of his Fortress Four, and has been DEAD WRONG the whole way down. Yes, buy C, its a screaming buy! NOT! We had it with calls and made a MINT, but long term this thing aint going up in my opinion. Couldl it see $10 to $12? Yup, it sure could, but it could also see .10 cents or .12 cents! (or .01 cents or .012 cents).
I'm wondering, if I was ever on Kudlow's show, would he call me a GREAT AMERICAN? He seems to call anyone who agrees with him that. What is a great American anyway? I tell ya, whenever Paulson speaks we tank, hehe, its pretty funny, jeez. The guy is like the Grim Reaper! Hank, let me help ya here, bud, when you LIE constantly, no one believes ya! Therefore when you say your BS that everything is coming up roses, people get POed and disgusted and sell. Of course, what will happen here is the government is going to announce another stimulus package, send the market up again and then we'll sell that as well. Then Obama will get ready for taking office and we'll rally into that and then we'll sell that. Has anyone but me noticed that we sell every piece of news? I'm watching Cuddley bear now, everyone says we are closer to the bottom and now is a good time to buy! I guess I'm the crazy one, cause I just don't get how anyone with half a brain would think this is a market that is almost bottomed. I guess it is, I mean, its closer to a bottom now then it was when it was 14,000, or 12,000, or 10,000, or 9000, or 8500! Oy, Cuddy just said it again! I can't take it, he says we're 4 months away from being out of the recession! I can't take it, please someone help meeeeeeeee!!! OK, so now, let me give you my take here for tomorrow. I think best thing would be we gap down hard and then reverse. We may gap UP, though, and that should be fadeable for a trade at least. I'm hoping we get another leg down, maybe get below 7800 area and then try to get a move into year end for us and rock with the January Effect list!
In the meantime, just remember - don't believe the hype and get suckered into investing, folks, we are no where near a bottom. What's gonna happen when we get to 4500 or lower you ask? They will all say the same exact things! Ever hear the saying "even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while" or "even a broken clock is right twice a day". I think both are appropriate in this case. I'm gonna be back on air soon. I've decided it's time for reality to be brought to the airwaves. Can you guys do me a favor? Just send a note to all TV stations not to carry what Paulson says? Just ignore him, maybe he'll go away then, ya know?
RULE!
Michael "Waxie" Parness
I have a lot to say about today, tune in later, I'll post later tonight
Got a lot of mail today from you guys, I'll try to address most thoughts.
I had an exceptional day today, we made some really killer calls. The gap fade did not work, we had a total trend day DOWN obviously. Once I saw we weren't going to bounce we shorted a bunch of stuff for huge profits. This is a one way market, if you are able to navigate that way you can make a sick amount. I am having just a sick year, I mean, if only the dollar were going to be worth something, hehe, I might be excited! :)
Anyway, we'll all talk later! I thought we would go down today, I didn't think they would sell with both fists honestly. Having said that, we just rode the wave all the way down. In this market that's what you need to do or you get reamed. RULE later!
Waxie
Stick with it, dudes and dudesses, stick with it!
I had an exceptional day today, we made some really killer calls. The gap fade did not work, we had a total trend day DOWN obviously. Once I saw we weren't going to bounce we shorted a bunch of stuff for huge profits. This is a one way market, if you are able to navigate that way you can make a sick amount. I am having just a sick year, I mean, if only the dollar were going to be worth something, hehe, I might be excited! :)
Anyway, we'll all talk later! I thought we would go down today, I didn't think they would sell with both fists honestly. Having said that, we just rode the wave all the way down. In this market that's what you need to do or you get reamed. RULE later!
Waxie
Stick with it, dudes and dudesses, stick with it!
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