Monday, August 04, 2008


OK, so today proved hands down what I've been saying for a very long time. Oil and the stock market aren't connected anymore in a major way. Yes, years ago that was the case, but there is a disconnect now, has been for a long time. You can watch CNBC and Bloomberg all day and pundit after pundit drags on saying that the reason the stock market is struggling is the high price of oil, the reason the economy is struggling is the high price of oil.

Let me make one thing clear, if oil were to drop $75 a barrel, we would still go DOWN. I hate harping on the same theme but once again the market is proving that if you want to be long it, you better trade it, cause this is not the kind of market you want to get stuck holding ANYTHING.

Today we saw what I knew was gonna happen, the AG stocks got SLAMMED. I think solar is gonna get hit HARD. VERY VERY HARD. FSLR look out below! GOOG and AAPL ready to crack here. GRMN from the TOP TEN TECH SHORTS list already destroyed. Again, I wish I was wrong but it ain't gonna happen, this market is BYE BYE and anyone standing in its way is gonna get run over.

We will get a tradeable bounce shortly here. Maybe even today with turnaround Tuesday and the FOMC, though its gonna be hard if the Fed doesn't do anything, which is probably the case. Upside here remains maybe 75 pts on the S & P and downside remains roughly 500 points on the S & P (yes, 500 pts). My target for the Russell (my favorite short beyond the financials) is 350 longer term. Watch 700 here, if we lose that with abandon next stop should be a retest of the yearly lows around 650. We lose that and look out below dudes and dudesses!

In the meantime, the AG stocks should get cracked even more. Next bounce they get I think they will make one helluva a short. I get emailed from you guys and gals all the time asking about longs mentioned here. I want to be perfectly clear - ANY LONG mentioned is a SHORT TERM TRADE ONLY! If you are riding it looking for a month trade forget it basically. Think about this, the Fed is doing everything they can to keep us from collapsing pre-election and yet we keep going down. What does that say about the underlying strength of this market? It says we are shot, folks. Someone killed this beast and didn't let us know.

This is the new movie - MARKET AT BERNIE'S. It's dead but they keep carrying it around on their shoulders trying to prop it up.

FORGETABOUTIT! We are fini, stick a fork in us.

And, beware ye shorts for turnaround Tuesday! I'm not so sure we get it, I'd rather be short than long here, but I still think we should get a bounce soon, at least short term bounce. Watch $150 on AAPL and $450 on GOOG, they both look like locks to hit those marks. They are KEY supports, loses there and see ya way down below!

CASH IS KING folks, make sure you have a lot of cash hanging around.

Oh, yeah, anyone watch booyahhead last week call the BOTTOM? Market only down like 400+ points since. So much for that idea. Why are people so fascinated with the idea of a bottom. There is NO SUCH THING! Just like there is no such thing as a top. There are only - TRADES - my friends! Only trades!

Keep tradin'!

And, get ready for our BEAR HUNTING class that Tiny and I are teaching in 3 weeks. I think it might be our best class yet and we are accepting signups, so email me at if you want more info! See ya there!



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