Sunday, August 10, 2008

How far will we go?

I've been saying that we should get to 1325 and 735 area on Russell. We hit that on the ER (Russell) Friday and S & P is fast approaching 1300 here. I'm hoping we get a bounce up early in the week as I do think that 750 on ER would be perfect short spot and 1350 on S & P would be sweet short spot.

In the meantime, I think its best to wait for a true direction. I think the oil down/stock up trade is about to expire in a big way. IF, and its a big IF, but if SKF hits $100 I would be looking for a long entry.

Here's the dealio, I do not suggest trying to catch tops or bottoms. We've been trading stuff long and short intraday the last few weeks. I think the best strategy here is that daily and then look for spots to catch stuff. If you noture FSLR has been weak as hell. This is options expiration week, so look for some LARGE moves here. This week should be particularly volatile, the market is running higher on fumes and the belief that Oil is what has made the economy weak. It's a lie preached by the media. Having said that, we need to respect the market and the market right now has been saying that it wanted to get a higher move.

There is a very strong trend that would say that this week we go DOWN. We almost always reverse the FOMC week's move, and since that move was HIGHER, we should go LOWER on the week, that's why I want to see some early week strength as I think we should then get a reversal move. As I write the futures are SLIGHTLY down, I thnk Monday is a fade either way, so lets see what shakes.

STAY NIMBLE! There's no rush to get long or short here, relax and pick your spots! That's what I want to do here.

Thanks to all that sent me Birthday cheer, always nice to get well wishes! I'm a Leo, who woulda thought? :)



TheBeerGuy! said...

So what is it? Buy, don't buy? Stay nimble? Do the Hokey Pokey? Whooo Hoooo where do I subscribe and actually PAY for such insight?

Yeah, Yeah. the trend is your friend, sell gap ups, buy gap downs, booyah!

How's that Apple short doing? I'm making the ca-chingos (is that how t spell it). Your followers are puking up their wallets.


jer-d said...

Please keep thebeerguy's comments around :-) it's fun reading his comments. It might be a pain for you but it's fun for us. No disrespect to you as I have been a member of trendfund for years.