Sunday, August 17, 2008

I think it's almost time...

OK, so I've said I was gonna come up with a stronger call this week. I think the upside here is pretty limited. While its possible we get that 1325 to 1350 mark here, I think thats MAX, and I think the downside is significant. So, I'm going to be legging my peeps into some shorts this week, particularly if we get some early upside tomorrow. So, there ya go, this is a decent spot to start legging into those short positions if you wish to do so. Again, there certainly could be some upside, but I don't see any tremendous risk to shorts here, particularly if you take some puts Sept. and forward from there. IF there is some news event that was percieved as special, then perhaps we get ane extension, baring that the risk is to the upside and the risk/reward here is to the downside I believe. For those of you who asked about PIN ACTION, you can look at the S & P (ES in futures) and see the ES closed at EXACTLY 1300. The ER (Russell) closed right at 755. Even though the market was pretty strong or no worse than flat most of the day, you'll notice AAPL fell all day and closed around $175. Also, once again GOOG was pinned EXACTLY at a strike price ($510). These types of trends give you a CLEAR edge if you watch for them and act on them. That's why I love trading Options Expiration. I have a couple of plays I like here near term. We're going to unveil a new TRENDFUND.COM SHORTS service shortly, I will be setting up a MODEL PORTFOLIO where you will be able to view the positions LIVE, in real time, so you can decide if you want to take a trade I like in real time. The service will have equities short and puts (or call if its an ETF that is inverse). This won't be a TRADING SERVICE, it'll be more of a swing service, with many positions held for a while. There may be some trades, but mostly it'll be that type of service, more of a longer term service so that you don't have to watch daily. I think there are some really nice short opps here and will be for the long haul, so I think this should be a very popular service. Pricing will be $699 for 6 months, and $999 for a year, more than likely. Ninja's and other members will get a discount. Pricing is not set in stone, but that's how I'm looking at it. If I am right it'll be a steal. Guess we'll see soon enough. If you are interested in learning more and being one of the first on board, email me at - and I'll send you info as I get it set up. In the meantime, let's see if we can rock the markets this week. Oil should have a tough time going up here much, and in fact may very well test $100 short term. I still say while the market might get that bump, ultimately it has to fail because oil has VERY little to do with what's wrong with the economy. The powers that be can blame it all they want, its simply not true, sorry. Oil can go to $10 a barrell the economy is still in the crapper folks. Mrs. freakin' Fields declared bankruptcy for G-ds sake! Holy moly! People can't even afford to eat COOKIES!Pizzeria Uno! I don't know, when I'm worried and down, I eat more cookies! Their business shouldn't been booming! Guess not. Let's rock either way! Watch GS this week. Stock is trading like it wants my $125 or lower target sooner rather than later. I would love to get it back to the $175 area for a nice short from here if you aren't short it already (one of my Top 10 Shorts and doing VERY well). RULE! Waxie


Erik28 said...


Wanted to ask your sentiment of potential for the "OTHER" Bear ETF's? (besides SKF) which ones you have a liking for or see more potential that perhaps others?

thanks in advance

GS was a top 10 short? That must of been in an earlier class, the one i listed to was almost all tech stocks.

Waxie said...

Erik, we had another list, FNM, GS, WFMI were on the list, all tanking nicely obviously. The lists are doing quite well overall and I think will do phenomenal in the long run. I really like SKF. I like DUG and I like UYG, and I LOVE TWM. I think the tech space is the most ridiculously overpriced sector out there besides the financials.

Waxie said...

Sorry, UYG short, not long.

My bad. Was down about 5% today.

Play_H said...

I miss to get in the options calls of this week. I was kind of septical after the AAPL calls. I hope you understand me. I am just getting started with the service. Do you think it's too late to get in after this run or It's just the beginning since you mentioned that those calls are swings play? I start with a limited fund do you thing ETF option are better of just go with stocks options.

Play_H said...

Is there posible to post these Play at night so we can get time to do some homework on them. just so we can get confortable befor to play them?