Monday, August 11, 2008


Love them...and love this rally! market is FLYING here, baby! ER hit 750, went as high as 758 and then ended day right at that key market of 750! ES went to 1312s. Still thinking 1325 to 1350 is a nice target. I called AAPL puts when it was about $176, so we'll see if I was too soon or dead on today for Options Trader. This is very typical of a Bear Market. What's always amazing to me is this, think about it logically, let's say for arguement sake that this is truly THE Bottom! OK, fine, hey, maybe it is, ya never know, but then if you are a fund manager, why are you rushing in to buy everything you were just selling at a cheaper price all at once? It's illogical and indicative of bear markets. Unless one thinks that the next stop is 15,000 on the DOW, or even 14,000, there's no reason to be in such a rush, you buy on DIPS. In a Bull market you buy on dips, in a bear market you sell on rallies. The S & P is up now roughly 100 pts in a very short time frame. We are WAY overbought. I still think we can get that push I've spoken about to that 1325 to 1350 area. And, the way ER is trading perhaps that'll get to 775. BUT, I also think that later this week we will get a pretty steep decline. And, now I think the AG and energy stocks will get a bounce tomorrow on turnaround Tuesday for them! I just don't trust that no one is interested in that group all at once. I said it yesterday, I wish I caught some of that move down, I missed a lot of it. We had FSLR, which I spoke about here a few time and today that hit $243s from when I mentioned it last week around $270s, so a really nice gain if you caught it, but this is rotation out of energy and into technology and that space is getting mighty crowded might fast. We'll see what shakes, I think a gap up Tuesday is very shortable. It'll be interesting to see what Oil does here, does it crater all the way down to $100 or less right away, or does it bob and weave its way there? We'll find out soon enough I would suspect. In the meantime, Tiny and I are preparing the mother of all BEAR MARKET classes, I suggest you all attend, if you want more info just email me - and I'll reply directly. RULE! Waxie *Oh, we are about to shoot a new infomercial, so if you have any interest in being a testimonial and get on TV email me your story as well!


Nick said...

I looked at the POT this morning and caught point for a small profit but could not belief it to out the $160 until I heard that a mid west farmer stated they were planting less fertilizer intensive crops next year because the fert. companies were charging to much. Maybe POT will get a nice bear flag or if below $160 we can see $150... PE is still fairly high

TheBeerGuy! said...
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JeffL said...

Hi Waxie,

I've been following your comments on aapl, but was wondering why you don't have the same sentiments about goog? A week or two ago, you were thinking that they were both ripe and ready to fall, but haven't heard much lately on goog (not here or on the options trader page). Just curious what makes aapl stand out here as a short/put call, when goog seems to be riding the same wave?

Many thanks in advance for your insight.

TheBeerGuy! said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Waxie said...

Beerguy, you are an knucklehead.

Go have a keg, jeez. Go do your own blog, I need hecklers like I need a hole in the head.

GOOG will see $150, I am fairly certain of it, but what's it matter? We're traders, right? You catch the wave.

And, beerguy, for your info, perhaps you haven't been reading, I've been saying BEFORE the rally that we would see HIGHER, and that S & P should see 1325 to 1350.

Nick, I think those stocks will ultimately come down a lot more. This is the nature of Bear markets, they are like viruses, they travel from one sector to the next. So, what happens? They sell one and buy the other. Eventually they all end up a lot lower.

beerguy, unfortunately the time has come for you to leave, you are annoying to me. Go start your own blog and sit alone at your own bar, jeez.

Waxie said...


I like GOOG a lot lower, obviously. Here's the drill, part of trading is picking spots. that's why its annoying when someone says "oh, you said GOOG $150". Yeah, I did and do think it gets there, but it doesn't happen overnight. GOOG was what, $750ish? It's now $500. That's a big move down. If you believe, as I do, that this Bear market lasts for a while, then it should work its way lower and lower as earnings power erodes over time. If the market reverses and goes into Bull mode, then GOOG may go back to $750. I just don't see that happening anytime in this millenium. But, ya never know! And, thats the beauty of trading. I can be wrong and my clients can still make money! We've called GOOG and AAPL LONG during this bear market at various times. I don't run a Bear hedge fund, I run a site that TRADES stocks both ways. I'm a swinger!

Don't get caught in the belief that you need to be short here, or any time. Yes, my bias is DOWN, for sure, but we shorted SKF on the way down from $200! We bought PUTS on SKF, my clients will tell you that. We caught SKF short for roughly 20 pts at one pt if memory serves.

We've bought MER, LEH, even FNM long! I think FNM goes to zero (its getting closer even when we rally), but I'll still buy it long if it looks good for clients as a TRADE.

I have to have a bias, its easy for people to read and digest. On a blog what am I gonna do? if I just rehash the day thats boring, so I have to give my overall view and where I'm coming from.

So, yeah, I like GOOG short, and I think its $500 or lower on Friday. So, its probably a decent trade short if it gets a bounce Tuesday. We shall see. I still think we have some upside potential, so we'll see.

JeffL said...

Thanks Waxie. Understood. BTW - I'm a newbie - started the mentoring program in June and Orange Belt since last week, so you and Tiny will be seeing a lot more of me around. I like your "RULE" philosophy and admire the dedication that you guys still throw into this, despite all the $$$ you've already made. Thanks again!