Monday, August 11, 2008
Love them...and love this rally! market is FLYING here, baby! ER hit 750, went as high as 758 and then ended day right at that key market of 750! ES went to 1312s. Still thinking 1325 to 1350 is a nice target. I called AAPL puts when it was about $176, so we'll see if I was too soon or dead on today for Options Trader. This is very typical of a Bear Market. What's always amazing to me is this, think about it logically, let's say for arguement sake that this is truly THE Bottom! OK, fine, hey, maybe it is, ya never know, but then if you are a fund manager, why are you rushing in to buy everything you were just selling at a cheaper price all at once? It's illogical and indicative of bear markets. Unless one thinks that the next stop is 15,000 on the DOW, or even 14,000, there's no reason to be in such a rush, you buy on DIPS. In a Bull market you buy on dips, in a bear market you sell on rallies. The S & P is up now roughly 100 pts in a very short time frame. We are WAY overbought. I still think we can get that push I've spoken about to that 1325 to 1350 area. And, the way ER is trading perhaps that'll get to 775. BUT, I also think that later this week we will get a pretty steep decline. And, now I think the AG and energy stocks will get a bounce tomorrow on turnaround Tuesday for them! I just don't trust that no one is interested in that group all at once. I said it yesterday, I wish I caught some of that move down, I missed a lot of it. We had FSLR, which I spoke about here a few time and today that hit $243s from when I mentioned it last week around $270s, so a really nice gain if you caught it, but this is rotation out of energy and into technology and that space is getting mighty crowded might fast. We'll see what shakes, I think a gap up Tuesday is very shortable. It'll be interesting to see what Oil does here, does it crater all the way down to $100 or less right away, or does it bob and weave its way there? We'll find out soon enough I would suspect. In the meantime, Tiny and I are preparing the mother of all BEAR MARKET classes, I suggest you all attend, if you want more info just email me - firstname.lastname@example.org and I'll reply directly. RULE! Waxie *Oh, we are about to shoot a new infomercial, so if you have any interest in being a testimonial and get on TV email me your story as well!