Tuesday, August 05, 2008

TURNAROUND TUESDAY!

I tell ya, if Monday's down these days then Tuesday has been GOLDEN to follow that rule! We gapped up HEAVY and then pulled in a bit after FOMC, but then just went hog wild and closed at HOD.

I suspect we now get those targets I discussed recently and thought we'd see - Russell 735 range and S & P 1325 area.

We'll see, but as you all know, either way we will head lower. It's interesting, we have this COMPLETELY psychotic market now. This isnt volatility, this is insanity. No ryhme, no reason, we just get this NUT market! I mean, Monday they selling financials with both fists, then on no news we gap up BIG in that group and never look back. NO NEWS!

Yes, we've had a volatile market for quite a while, which as a trader is great, but jeez louise, this is beyond volatile, this is downright looney bin material!

Wednesday maybe we'll get a simple day, some follow through to the huge rally. I think that would promote the move we're discussing pretty quickly, and it makes sense in terms of Bear Market rallies. They keep happening all in a day or two or three period. That's normal behavior for a bear market. Normal behavior for a Bull market would be a slower more push and pull move higher.

BUT< as always, its all good and all tradeable! I just refuse to make strong day to day calls, cause no shot to do that most days here. We defy all logic, so better to trade it intraday and swinging stuff for a few days or a week or two at a time. Overnight? CSCO was up nearly 7% after hours and you would expect he market to rally again Wednesday, but since this is a looney market, who the hell knows at this point.

WFMI nice, got cracked as we knew it would! Down $4 after hours! Ka-chingo for Option Traders!

I think WFMI is $3 to $4 by years end. For Options Traders I would take some money off the table and keep a few puts with a stop at $21 on the stock and we'll reenter if need be. I doubt it gets that much of a bounce, but we shall see!

SWEET!

RULE!

Waxie

8 comments:

Mario D'Agostino said...

One thing I don't understand, you say don't hold through earnings, but, like WFMI, if you got a strong bias towards the downside, would you not hold puts through earnings??? Plus, I did notice the 10 am rule works pretty good for daytrading. any comments?

TheBeerGuy! said...

It's all about oil waxman. If oil continues weak, the market trades higher. Simple as that.

The rally on Fed day was ALL ABOUT OIL.

On another note, SanDisk is washed out and about to move higher. Not many sellers left there.

BeerGuy!

Jeanne Mancuso said...

Disillusioned,

I like it when a blog is balanced but you seem a little bitter. Quite a while ago you wrote about taking the mentoring classes and it almost convinced me not to do it but I'm in the program now and like it. I'm curious to know what went so wrong so I can avoid it. I really like the question and answer classes and you can submit questions in advance that they will address in class. If you feel like writing to me (because I'm nosy) my e-mail address is jeannemancuso@comcast.net. I will admit my investing hasn't greatly improved but I'm still learning and haven't actively put the strategies to work.

Ming said...

I appreciate that Waxie spends time on this Blog, so I have better understanding of the market besides getting trade alerts from his team. Waxie, thank you for sharing your view to us.

Ming

Waxie said...

I have no problem with anyone commenting on anything, or even criticizing me or my ideas, but I do mind some jealous person committing slander. Go post it elsewhere. I don't ever lie, it's a cardinal sin of mine.

WFMI was called two ways for members;

1)As an Option Trader play, the August $22.50 puts were called at roughly $1.25 if I recall (it's posted in our archives and I'm too tired and at Disney).

2)Was given as one of my favorite stocks to short in our short class given a couple of months ago with a $5 or under long term target.

I got emails last night asking about it because people have it short and the puts.

I talk about my losers all the time. I'm happy to say that some calls SUCK. If a trader makes millions then they lost millions as well more than likely. The object is to make more millions than you lose.

Holding over earnings is NOT recommended as a rule. I state that clearly. Some people choose to do it anyway, and for a stock that we are holding as a long term play I would recommend holding it as long you have the risk tolerance.

I don't need my ego stroked, I have very little ego. I'm much more interested in my two little girls being happy then my ego. Some people think small and would rather lash out because they are hurting inside.

I'm sorry, I wish I could take away their pain. I like to do charity work.

Beerguy, hate to disagree but we rally at least 75% of the time on FOMC day, has nothing to do with oil. We have probably 50 S & P points of upside even if oil goes to zero. I guess we could see 1350s, but I don't think so. ER is just about done here.

I would love us to get a bigger rally, trust me. That'd be awesome, but the economies troubles have very little to do with oil. Market hasn't moved with oil in a long long time. Oil was at all-time highs at that point last year when we were at 14,000s on the DOW. It's virtually meaningless in my egoless opinion.

Zen baby, zen!

10 am rule rocks these days. In volatile nutty markets its a very good way to trade, mario. GOod call!

WFMI I think sees $5 or less, period. You can hold it til it gets there. Only way it doesn't in my opinion is a buyout, but who is buying them out? I guess anything is possible, but I think its $5 or less in the not too distant future.

tokyo_yoyo said...

Second Wave Down
Waxie. Here's your downside catalyst...8/6/08 Morgan Stanley chopping HELOC ( Home Equity line of Credit )... 2003 Wells Fargo sells me a @220k mortgage...10% Down....@ 22,500 HELOC, NO PMI or Escrow...Refinance with Chase 4/08 with equity @ 52,500....Now the banks are reducing the available HELOC amounts " due to resale market conditions ", as much as 80%? of the original HELOC? This is just another Sub Prime collapse where Buyers purchased WHAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN A 30 YEAR RATE, parceled out into Mortgage/Heloc....and now the banks squeeze the HELOC. Waxie's right...DOWN. and there's more than this to my story...

Waxie said...

tokyo,

unfortunately I agree. I say it all the time, give me a huge rally and new highs on the markets! You can all say I was wrong, while I walk to the bank with bodyguards to cash the checks on the trades!

It's a lot better for the market to go to the moon then to die, but my job is to give my honest opinion. I am wrong at times, it does happen, but my longer term calls historically dare I say are almost 100%. I steer everyone to the website and the media section. I only remember 1 bad call on TV, and that ended up being right, just took longer than I thought.

I called Gold to $500 when it was $275. I was wrong, it went to $1000!

I called oil to $100 and then to $150 when it was roughly $32

I called both the Bear market, the Bull markets all within points both ways.

My downside targets in this bear market are a retest of the 2002/2003 lows. I hope I'm wrong, but I think the DOW ends up in the 7000s and I think the Nasdaq ends up 1100s eventually.

I pray I'm wrong, but I call it as I see it. Cause even if I'm right, it doesn't help my business, most people like to be long most of the time. And, if we go up then there's more volatility and larger ranges obviously.

I doubt I'm wrong, though. Anyone buying financials here is an idiot, plain and simple. For a trade? Sure, absolutely! For an investment? C at $20? Good luck, I think it sees $5 or less. People have a hard time thinking that things can go as low as they do in a Bear market. They get stuck, deers in headlights. I've done it, most traders have. Trick is to learn from the mistake and try to be flexible so you don't get hurt badly.

Stick with the rules, they usually work no matter what the market does.

RULE!

fuji88 said...

Waxie,
I'm bit confuse here cause the market sentiment now is all long tech and you tell us to short tech. Don't you think the timing is a bit ahead of the wave, by the time the tech sector get crush, I may get toast already. And I see myself on that direction now or sooner.