Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Biding our time, biting lips and watching the market trade like a crazy dude!

OK, sometimes I watch the market and I think that it's enough to make anyone skizoid (yes, that's a real word in my universe!).
Today we went down early, rallied, then went down again, and then closed for a nice flourish off the days bottom of the trading range. What we're witnesses here is very light volume, much lighter than normal even for this time of year. Why? Because very few this instant want to step in and buy, but no one is in a rush to rush in and buy either, so funds aren't selling and no one is buying. Hence = standstill! Or, Mexican standoff! Of course FNM and FRE continue their march to zero. I am hoping we get some news that bumps us higher. I'm not sure what it'll be, or if it will happen. Monday and Tuesday I was VERY clear that we would move lower and said so here. That was a very strong call and they don't always turn out to be right, but they did this time. That gives you as a trader a very nice edge cause you are looking to fade any bounce. Today I thought we'd get a down start and potentially a nice rally. We got an eh move both ways, nothing really exciting and I was out most of the day with my girls getting them ready for school honestly. A dad's gotta shop at some point! It's amazing how much you can spend on clothes for kids. I buy a new outfit for myself once every bluemoon these days, if anything I have too many shoes. I'm the guy equivalent of Amelda Marcos I think. A 5 and 7 year old outgrow things like wild flowers. They also both got shots today and they were not very happy about that. I doubt the doctors office was happy either since they were screaming in unison my poor darlins! I wonder if investors scream in unison when the market tanks day after day. Here is my newest financial sector prediction, take it with a grain of WAX! LEH = under $3 (or $1) within 90 days. MER = under $5 (or $1) by year end. WM is a def under $1 shortly. WB is a potential failure and the stock should see under $3 by year end as well. I know, I know, get off the financials back, its MY fault that they are all tanking. Sorry, homey mosconis, but I can't help it, I am the grim reaper, what can ya do! Actually, today I also met with a new agent so I'm not being repped to do some public speaking and such. I'm pitching a new book to my publisher next week so hopefully that will get picked up. For those of you that haven't picked up my movie at Blockbuster to rent, shame on you! If ya read this and get ANYTHING out of it, go rent my film, its CRAZY FOR LOVE and its at every Blockbuster in the land, or you can order a copy from me for $20, just email me and I'll have it shipped out. I only have 30 copies, though. Trust me, I don't make money on the movie. I could write a book about that experience called "How to Turn MILLIONS into Thousands!". A very expensive lesson indeed and one day I'll write the pretty hilarious story, though it wasn't very funny to me, hehe! Hey, I like my movie, and you can't make money at everything you do, right? And, you guys don't pay me to give you movie producing advice, though now I do a much better job of it. Sometimes the best lessons are the most expensive ones. Actually, usually that's the case. In the meantime, Thursday should be interesting. I don't have a clear idea. I am hoping we get a nice bounce. 1300 on the S & P and 750 on the Russell remain seemingly inpenetrable fotresses, and I think we are going to get a HUGE down move here shortly. It might happen post Labor day and post Fed one more attempt to save the financial world. PICK YOUR SPOTS, its such a key and its something that every trader must do to succeed. If you are patient you get clear signals. Remember, investors and the market usually over shoot the upside and underestimate the downside, so if you are patient you can get very very VERY good risk/reward situations. Next rally should be one of those. I would lose SKF to get back to the 110 area cause the next meltdown here should be quite the doosey! Let's see what shakes and play tomorrow and Friday close to the vest. When I am unsure I try to make less calls and do 1/2 size ones when given. It'll set up a bigger move either way so be PATIENT! Live and learn, babies, live and learn! Waxie


Erik28 said...

Why do you even subsrbibe beer?

Just to heckle?

or why can't you just take what information is valuable to you, and discard what is not? Which is what everyone does anyhow. I don't understand the need to heckle.

About the picks, SNDK, NVDA, etc. It's easy to run your mouth AFTER the fact. Since attention is what you are seeking, it would behouve you to make the phenonimal picks before hand. Then everyone will love the beerguy heckler, and he will do something about this
"unjustice" the beer man so sees. lol But that won't happen. My picks will trump your's, much less waxies.(yes) If your gonna critique negativly, do so with a suggestion to MAKE it better, or idea...if it has neither, then it's of no help and wasted energy on your behalf. So just keep running your mouth and drinking The Beast, no one's listening.

You just called yourself a moron in our post, interesting.

mdp129 said...

what an a*s you are beerguy. a legit guy being heckled by an unknown jacka*s with no credentials. i came here to read waxie's thoughts on the market, not yours. b/c you got shafted by him (deservidly so) now you are starting to call him names. what are they teaching you in first grade? move on. (oh, but be sure to heckle me before you do... i wouldnt expect any less from your type)

Waxie said...

thanks guys, appreciate the assist, I'd just ignore him. I have NO issue with anyone disagreeing with me, or saying a pick I made sucked when it did, as long as its done decently. Being malicious isn't called for. While obviously I am a businessman, I don't need to post this blog. I do it to share my views and thoughts and hopefully to give some good ideas. Sometimes thats what happens, other times my thoughts are incorrect. This isn't a competition, but unfortunately some people have very low self esteem and feel poorly about themselves (hence the low self worth) so they want to bring others down who they are envious of. Trust me, you have nothing to be envious of. I'm just a dude who shares what he knows about the market and a little about life. Don't read it if you don't think I have anything to say. I'll never read your blog, trust me. Life is short, deal with your own issues so you don't go around pissing everyone off who you come into contact with. Rule!

Anonymous said...

Hi Waxie,

always reading your blog, one question:

according to you where's the bottom for this Bear market on the SPX? any target? below 1000?

and another question: do you see any chance of a sustained rally from september/october because of the election year?


Waxie said...

retrace. I think S & P goes well below 1000 unfortunately. The option market is telling us (and reality) that this market is teetering on the brink of collapse. Now, usually that doesn't happen all at once, which is good so it gives us time to trade both ways. Election is tough. I think the only reason the market has held up is because its an election year. I think we'd be under 10,000 if that wasn't the case. Rally? Yeah, I can see another Fed news BS rally, and I hope that happens. Would I want to be long for more than a trade here? Nah, no thanks!