Monday, August 18, 2008
TURN OUT THE LIGHTS...FNM and FRE are OVA!
Well, even the anti-Barron's curse couldn't bounce FNM and FRE Monday as the markets sold with both fists, albeit on very light volume. FNM and FRE, I will keep repeating myself til I'm blue in the face, are worth NOTHING. They are worthless and anyone buying them will be very sorry they did so. I have one regret for today, I had my finger on the button to buy FNM $5 Sept puts at .35 cents and wanted to get a bounce that never came. They closed at $1.25 on the bid! Oouch! LEH should see under $10 shortly, I just don't see any reason for it not to. I guess they could have some news that helps them, but it'll be a short bump on the road to the $2 LEH is worth at most. OK< so I am a complete Bear, right? Not exactly. As you readers know, Tuesday is....TURNAROUND TUESDAY! It'll be interesting to see how we shake out, but Tuesday has been a reversal for the last couple of months and if we get some selling early on Tuesday on light volume there's a good chance we get a decent bounce. Of course, if we get a gap up and early strength I'd be shorting it for almost certain. Either way it should be a nice trading day. I think that we're about to see the Tech-turn when some of these high flyers start to break down pretty steeply. Remember, when the market, or stocks themselves start selling it can happen in a jiff. I'm still liking the usual suspects to see substancial downside. And, I do mean SUBSTANCIAL. There is a very big problem here, and it's kinda like the Elephant in the room, even though people notice it in this case. Anyone buying the financials for more than a trade is an absolute idiot, delusional FREAK! How's that for speaking my mind!? We are going to see that sector get airholed at some point in the not too distant future on MONSTER bad news I believe. Now, as a trader we can't worry about that, but for those of you reluctant to short or do anything more than invest, you really need to take a long hard look at your finances and decide if you want to lose a lot of your hard earned money, or MAKE THE BIG Ka-chingos! Cause the only way to do that in this market, in my opinion, is by being on the short side if you are not trading intraday. You MUST be insane to buy stock here in ANY sector. Yes, we will get dead cats, but that's about it, folks. Sorry. Now, ok, I've gotten it off my chest, I think it prudent to watch the early action tomorrow, I think good shot we fade it either way. Also, remember, I said that the oil going down and market going up trade was DEAD and wha-la Monday oil was down again and the market was CRUSHED. I think you can now start watching oil and the market in a different way, you can see if we get short term bounces or failures based on oil, and then fade that move. Oil will probably see below $100 near term. We talked about different levels and 750 on the Russell was and is HUGE. It's a good pivot to look at in terms of a move to that level is shoartable until it breaks it cleanly and holds. In that case then we look at 760 and then 775. But, I really don't see us going higher than that and again, the risk/reward favors the short side. Also watch this AMED, I think it can easily see $25 within 60 days. Turnaround Tuesday? We'll see soon enough! RULE Waxie