Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Whoops there it is - again!

We got some followthrough, though the Nasdaq lagged quite a bit. It's always interesting when you see changes in leadership, even if its short term. Today the financials led us higher. Gold did indeed get smacked down. Oil down early but after inventory #s squeezed like a mad beast and was up over $4!

The market still managed to stage a nice rally. We had a VERY nice day. We caught FSLR for an average of around $5.50, we got AAPL short for about $3 into lunch, we got out of our MER calls from yesterday's Option Trader play for a very nice gainer, we got X for about $4, we got a few others for nice gains, and we had 1 loser early on a stop out in GS for about $1.50 loss. ICO our small cap monster and Option Trader play finally starting to motor here, and TIE which I mentioned here last night got a late push. We'll see. I also called SOLF and CSIQ after hours on FSLR earnings. I think they should both gap up nicely and perhaps squeeze to the upside. We'll see but I think low risk entries were had by anyone after hours in the chat room who played them. As far as Thursday goes, it'll be interesting. This market is truly psychotic. And, it is truly a TRADERS market and nothing else. It gets pushed up and down on mere whims at this point. I still think its a bit early to get back into the financials short as we could get a further squeeze up. I hope so. I would love to see the S & P at 1350 area as that would be the perfect short. Get the ER to our 735 target and same deal. One note, GRMN, on our TOP TEN TECH SHORTS list proved us right so far by getting cracked, the puts I mentioned in the class already up well over 100%! Now thats a nice instant gratification! Watch GOOG and AAPL on the next round of selling. They both look very vulnerable. I would like to get GOOG to push to $500 area for the best short entry on it, and with AAPL get it to $175, if it can get that high and I'll be salivating. In the meantime, let's enjoy the ride, a gap down again is buyable more than likely. We've had 3 trendy like days in a row, its very very rare to get 4, so chances are we'll be whippy most of the day. I don't have much of a strong opinion on the day here, I think its likely to chew ya up if you overtrade, so hang tight and pick your spots, please. Like I said, I do like CSIQ and SOLF if they squeeze for a trade only. They both have earnings upcoming and after FSLR blowout chances are they will squeeze pretty nicely here! We'll see soon enough on all! RULE! Waxie

9 comments:

Jeanne Mancuso said...

Dear Ole Wise One,

Grasshopper here, and I was wondering if you would share why you find Apple so objectionable. I was in one of their stores the other day (which was packed) and it cost me $30 for a little plug to charge my ipod. Apparently I don't share your vision of Apple and it's quite possible that I'm wrong but maybe you can show me the light. :) Mission impossible, I know...

sanjay said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
TheBeerGuy! said...

Waxman....I think capitulation is about to occur. Today's action with oil down was quite ominous indeed. If tomorrow is an up day, I'll go with my wife to the mall every weekend for the next year.

Banks are on the verge of another leg down as I see Lehman blowing up possibly next week. Plus anything in any sector with healthy gains is about to get shot as investors will be looking to lock-in any profits and protect those funds from further market deterioration.

Good Luck Waxie!

BeerGuy!

Jeanne Mancuso said...

Waxie,

One more quick thing. I hope you're in a charitable mood. Any advice for someone interested in writing covered calls in this market?

Thanks,

Jeanne

Play_H said...

Hi Waxie
I solute you for your predictions for this bear market. I wish I did find out about this blog early at the start of this bear market. It could have saved me from bleeding. I 100% qualify for a bull market genus. my portfolio went from 14k to 160k befor october and back to 5k from last october to now. You got me into trading after purchasing your informecial package in 2004. but I was a student at that time but didn't really get started until last year after my graduation in december 2006. working suck, the job market stinks.I decided to start trading for living. I use to be a trendfund yellow belt member when i first purchase the package but did not really trade that much back then bcs of school presure, I let it expired. but I decided to really do it last january 2007. so I went back dig my tapes and watched them. and started with options. I love options. any advice that can help me survive this market? I wish I could afford your coaching services but once I get my portfolio back to a good level. It looks like i am missing a lot. but for now i guess i need to just try to get back on track. any guidance will be appreciated.

I went back and read all your posting from back in january i feel so S#@$%^...

Keep the good work waxie.

Play_H

Brain said...

What happen to Monday?

Waxie said...

Jeanne,

AAPL is a GREAT company, the stock on the other hand is VASTLY overpriced. It's one of the best shorts there is in my opinion. In a bear market you have to look at stocks that people are in love with, those are the ones that generally get cracked the worst in the end. Why? Cause there are a lot more owners, thus a lot more sellers. Look at the Ag stocks today! Oil stocks! CRACK CITY!

AAPl, GOOG, GRMN, they are all, in my opinion TOAST.

GOOG $150, mark it down!

Erik28 said...

Waxie,


w/ the pseudo financial rally "do not look behind the curtain" upholding of the Finacial Sector.
I bought into SKF yesterday at close @ 112.89 Don't expect it to SKYrocket to 210 in no time flat like the last big one. But i dont forsee it going much lower.


Qa) If and/or when they remove that no short crap on aug 12th, is there a particular Finacial stock that you see has been "shielded" from the damage, that's ready for a good short pounding? (or do ya think that's null in void and those stocks will get re-protected or whatever they call it)


Qb) With this little recent rally looking to possibly top out here. What other ETF's do you see as a less day to day, more like week to month holding, that might be strong for the next bear storm. (bear ultra short etfs i mean) As in , besides SKF, you have a fav short bear etf sector?

SCC, SZK, SRS?


Qc) Im newly long DIG, 2% up. stop loss is on. Do ya think it's a waste of time, or think it's a safe slower gainer for to 90?


Qd) RTK, juicy SHORT term short prospect (intra to 1-2 dayer) up coming???



Thank you for all your hard work Waxie!!! If the 4 questions and 18 paragraphs are too much to ask, i suppose i understand.

Erik28 said...

sorry to double post, i meant only to post in the most updated blog, whoops